If Greece defaults

[bryant.coleman]

Still gonna see the US' hand in this?

I am sure that the Americans are behind frau Merklel's change of mind. And I don't want to speculate their reasons to do so. Possible reasons might be the Qatari LNG, or a change in the US strategy towards Russia. Now you'll ask me why the Qatari LNG became a factor all of a sudden. Don't have an answer for that also.

[deisik]

Still gonna see the US' hand in this?

I am sure that the Americans are behind frau Merklel's change of mind. And I don't want to speculate their reasons to do so. Possible reasons might be the Qatari LNG, or a change in the US strategy towards Russia. Now you'll ask me why the Qatari LNG became a factor all of a sudden. Don't have an answer for that also.

I'd rather ask whether the Qatari LNG became a factor at all (since then) and whether the US strategy towards Russia really changed back then (I mean, in 2012). Why didn't it change in 2008 then, after the US fiasco in Georgia? But it doesn't actually matter, since you are evidently trying to interpret information in such a way that confirms your assumptions, and, at the same time, ignoring factors and facts that work against it (that is called confirmation bias, by the way), e.g. the history of the South Stream project (which is almost as old as its Northern sibling)...

The sudden change in frau Merkel's attitude is pretty well explained by more prosaic reasons (and the 50% deployment of the Nord Stream too), as well as the fate of the South Stream pipeline (remember, its history as well as problems started long before the Ukrainian crisis or frau Merkel's blowout)

[Fabrizio89]

Greece won't deault but it's likely it will leave the Euro, eurusd will probably dip and then pump hard after that as Greece leaving will be a relief for the european situation thus giving some breathing space, then markets will resume their risk off mode and for btc there will be no hope because king dollar.

[JackH]

One step closer to a western economy inside the Eurozone collapsing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33106990

[countryfree]

At least, we're getting closer to a solution. I'm really fed up with Greece's problems making top headlines news. Every month, it's the same story with the country on verge of bankruptcy because it's unable to pay its debts. This just cannot go on for years. When there's a problem between a bank and an individual, the matter is settled much quicker.

[deisik]

One step closer to a western economy inside the Eurozone collapsing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33106990

No more than just information noise (aka bullshit)

The Athens stock exchange closed nearly 6% lower. Germany's Dax and France's Cac 40 ended more than 1% lower.

Shares also fell in the US, with the Dow Jones index dropping 0.8%.

Stocks fall and rise everyday, 0.8-1% range (and a way higher) is nothing to talk about

[Erdogan]

The keynesians are busy saying "come on, we have to save europe", meaning: pay the the fuckers and move on. This might in fact happen, it is just that it does not solve the problem, mostly because all the countries are insolvent. There will be political pressure to expand the states, and there will be downward pressure on the euro itself. So it will not help, but it can fool the market actors, who are mostly keynesians too, and the people, who also are keynesians just about all of them (or believe whatever the politicians say). There is no solution in sight.
 

[JerryCurlzzz]

The writing is already on the wall -- just get it over with. Grexit will be painful in the short term for the Euro, but bullish longterm. Expel the weak link and pick up the pieces.

(On the other hand, this may empower anti-austerity parties in Portugal, Spain )

[Gronthaing]

The writing is already on the wall -- just get it over with. Grexit will be painful in the short term for the Euro, but bullish longterm. Expel the weak link and pick up the pieces.

(On the other hand, this may empower anti-austerity parties in Portugal, Spain )

An anti austerity party will probably win in Spain already. Maybe another will in Ireland too. But Spain is too large. It can't be kicked out of the eurozone like that. Austerity policies can't go on forever.

It is not necessary for Greeks to pay the EU taxpayers and IMF in euros. They can pay them in drachmas.

That is assuming anyone will take drachmas as payments. But won't the drachma be too devalued even if that happens? How will Greece import what it needs from other countries then?

[bryant.coleman]

Made some calculations. For the next 50 years or so, the Greeks should pay the troika somewhere around €7 billion to €10 billion every year. And the potential revenues from the Turkish Stream project is €1 billion to €2 billion per year. So it is clear that Russia won't be able to help them much. And since there is no other revenue source for the Greek government, it is certain that they will default. But when?

[deisik]

Made some calculations. For the next 50 years or so, the Greeks should pay the troika somewhere around €7 billion to €10 billion every year. And the potential revenues from the Turkish Stream project is €1 billion to €2 billion per year. So it is clear that Russia won't be able to help them much. And since there is no other revenue source for the Greek government, it is certain that they will default. But when?

It is not certain at all. Why think so narrowly? They could easily ask Russians (or China) for a credit line (which they probably already did), and then lease an island (or two, for either country) for the same 50 years or so...

Besides, 50 years is a lot of years, so anything could happen ("fuck the EU")

[Anony]

We have €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday (April 9th).

Then we have public sector wages and pensions, €1.7b in social security payments made by the state (April 14th).

Then we have a €200m loan repayment to the IMF (May 1st).

Now correct me if I am wrong, but if Greece cant pay any of these 3 bills we are talking about the first "western modern" country to be technically in default. If they resort back to the Drachma, it will be one of the most worthless currencies on the planet.

What I cant really figure out is the outcome, both worldwide financially against the Euro, and obviously against Bitcoin. Will we see BTC as safe heaven? Something tells me only a little, because the average Greek is not highly IT literate, but I could be wrong here.

Give me your thoughts people, as this goes down in about 3 days from now!

That would be huge. I have been reading news about Greece that its economy has fallen in great numbers. I do not understand where does all the money vanishes. All my logic says, that the money will go from one hand to another. But it has been a magic trick, that it leaves one hand but never gets received on the other one. Once the European countries were considered to be the richest in whole world and now almost all of them are going through financial crisis.

[Searing]

nothing much will happen imho they will just spend years kicking the can down the road from crisis to crisis imho ...look at Japan's problems
in the past..they managed to lurch along I expect the same from Greece

better a little loss to the bankers year by year then a huge hit if it all goes pear shaped imho is what they are thinking

(death from the little paper cuts so to speak)

[V for Varoufakis]

Soon the europeans mother fuckers will take their lesson from communists.

[yayayo]

Soon the europeans mother fuckers will take their lesson from communists.

Yeah, it will get very ugly for the Greek people. Communists tend to be economically illiterate and love to use collective coercion to hide this.

People in Greece will soon feel the catastrophic results of their vote. Of course, they will blame others for their misery.

ya.ya.yo!

[Anony]

Soon the europeans mother fuckers will take their lesson from communists.

Yeah, it will get very ugly for the Greek people. Communists tend to be economically illiterate and love to use collective coercion to hide this.

People in Greece will soon feel the catastrophic results of their vote. Of course, they will blame others for their misery.

ya.ya.yo!

What voting for someone has got to do with the failling economy? This is not the result of a new government. This is the result of the whole policy being following since so many years. And it is the same case in every other country which is facing economic crisis.

[bryant.coleman]

It is not certain at all. Why think so narrowly? They could easily ask Russians (or China) for a credit line (which they probably already did), and then lease an island (or two, for either country) for the same 50 years or so...

I am not sure whether Greece can lease out its islands to non-EU nations such as Russia or China, as it is a NATO member. Doing so will almost certainly result in Greece being expelled from the NATO, and from the EU. They might be able to lease their islands to private individuals, but other than that they can't do much.

[manselr]

At least, we're getting closer to a solution. I'm really fed up with Greece's problems making top headlines news. Every month, it's the same story with the country on verge of bankruptcy because it's unable to pay its debts. This just cannot go on for years. When there's a problem between a bank and an individual, the matter is settled much quicker.

Since this has been going on for 5+ years the Greek strategy has been to wear-down their lenders with bullshit until they finally are so frustrated they cave-in and say go ahead and do what you want with the money ... see how well that has worked!

[Gronthaing]

Soon the europeans mother fuckers will take their lesson from communists.

Yeah, it will get very ugly for the Greek people. Communists tend to be economically illiterate and love to use collective coercion to hide this.

People in Greece will soon feel the catastrophic results of their vote. Of course, they will blame others for their misery.

ya.ya.yo!

What voting for someone has got to do with the failling economy? This is not the result of a new government. This is the result of the whole policy being following since so many years. And it is the same case in every other country which is facing economic crisis.

Not only that. But syriza isn't even communist. What they proposed so far is barely socialist at all.

At least, we're getting closer to a solution. I'm really fed up with Greece's problems making top headlines news. Every month, it's the same story with the country on verge of bankruptcy because it's unable to pay its debts. This just cannot go on for years. When there's a problem between a bank and an individual, the matter is settled much quicker.

Since this has been going on for 5+ years the Greek strategy has been to wear-down their lenders with bullshit until they finally are so frustrated they cave-in and say go ahead and do what you want with the money ... see how well that has worked!

That's not true. Previous governments were applying austerity measures. From when they were told their economy would contract by 2% at most up until it contracted by 20 some %. Still had a lot of corruption and tax evasion though. The current government has been fighting tax evasion and corruption more. But is trying to avoid even more austerity which would cause even more problems. It's the conditions imposed on Greece that make no sense.

[bryant.coleman]

Since this has been going on for 5+ years the Greek strategy has been to wear-down their lenders with bullshit until they finally are so frustrated they cave-in and say go ahead and do what you want with the money ... see how well that has worked!

The Greeks should have kick-started their austerity measures in 2009, when the global recession was at its peak. But rather than introducing the austerity measures and cutting back on expenses, the two governing parties (ND and PASOK) tried to win the elections by offering more and more freebies to the general population.