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Author Topic: If Greece defaults  (Read 45186 times)
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June 18, 2015, 01:08:49 PM
 #261

Read an interesting article from a historian's point of view. I think it's some of the freshest writing I've read in months on the situation in greece:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_17/06/2015_551127




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June 18, 2015, 11:09:09 PM
 #262

How many "deals" have we already had with Greece? Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Well... none of the deals have helped them much. Give them some significant concessions (such as lowering the interest rates), and then see the results. Right now, the troika is hell bent on destroying the Greek economy. Just tell me how is it possible to make a debt payment of € 8 billion per year, when the tax revenue is much lower than that amount?
These dangerous considerations are exactly why their bonds pay as well as they do. There will be no chaotic scenario. Greece will revert back to the drachma and the banksters will take their medicine. Iceland did that and they are doing just fine.

I don't think we can compare Greece to Ireland. They are very different countries, with very different people.
Very different history, too, but there's no doubt some of the harsh measures Ireland took to jack up its economy could help Greece, too.

I used to be a citizen and a taxpayer. Those days are long gone.
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June 18, 2015, 11:31:47 PM
 #263

^ He's talking about Iceland. Not Ireland.

How many "deals" have we already had with Greece? Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Well... none of the deals have helped them much. Give them some significant concessions (such as lowering the interest rates), and then see the results. Right now, the troika is hell bent on destroying the Greek economy. Just tell me how is it possible to make a debt payment of € 8 billion per year, when the tax revenue is much lower than that amount?
These dangerous considerations are exactly why their bonds pay as well as they do. There will be no chaotic scenario. Greece will revert back to the drachma and the banksters will take their medicine. Iceland did that and they are doing just fine.

Not so simple. Going back to the drachma requires a lot of preparation. And a lot of experience otherwise it can go very wrong. The only ones who have the expertise for that are maybe the IMF. And I don't think the Greek government has been really preparing for that possibility yet. They are just trying to make the negotiations work for now.
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June 19, 2015, 08:01:38 AM
 #264

Christine Lagarde says that If Greece fails to make a payment on June 30, it will be in default with the IMF at the start of July since there is no grace period or possibility to delay. She also insists that a reform of the Greek pension system should be carried out to seal a deal with Athens (as I got it, essentially dismantling it)...


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June 19, 2015, 08:56:42 AM
 #265

She also insists that a reform of the Greek pension system should be carried out to seal a deal with Athens (as I got it, essentially dismantling it)...

What madame Lagarde is implying is that, in order to satisfy the greed of Goldman Sucks and other cartels, the Greek government should confiscate the pension funds, and hand it over to the troika. The Greek pensioners have already seen their pensions reduced to a fraction of the former levels. If madame Lagarde is going to get her own way, then we can see the pensioners starving to death in Greece.

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June 19, 2015, 11:27:45 AM
 #266

Greeks are stashing €10,000 bundles in their homes in fear of Grexit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!
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June 19, 2015, 12:35:07 PM
 #267

^ He's talking about Iceland. Not Ireland.

How many "deals" have we already had with Greece? Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Well... none of the deals have helped them much. Give them some significant concessions (such as lowering the interest rates), and then see the results. Right now, the troika is hell bent on destroying the Greek economy. Just tell me how is it possible to make a debt payment of € 8 billion per year, when the tax revenue is much lower than that amount?
These dangerous considerations are exactly why their bonds pay as well as they do. There will be no chaotic scenario. Greece will revert back to the drachma and the banksters will take their medicine. Iceland did that and they are doing just fine.

Not so simple. Going back to the drachma requires a lot of preparation. And a lot of experience otherwise it can go very wrong. The only ones who have the expertise for that are maybe the IMF. And I don't think the Greek government has been really preparing for that possibility yet. They are just trying to make the negotiations work for now.

But you are implying things aren't going to go very wrong past June 30, with or without deal. So what's there to lose?
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June 19, 2015, 12:56:49 PM
 #268

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!

They will buy Bitcoins, if you could guarentee them that the Bitcoin exchange rates will not got down by 20% or 30% all of a sudden (in less than a week's duration). Right now, Bitcoin is a very volatile currency, with highly unstable exchange rates. So obviously, people will go after safer options, be it the United States Treasury Bonds, or the American Gold Eagle coins.
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June 19, 2015, 01:21:20 PM
 #269

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!

They will buy Bitcoins, if you could guarentee them that the Bitcoin exchange rates will not got down by 20% or 30% all of a sudden (in less than a week's duration). Right now, Bitcoin is a very volatile currency, with highly unstable exchange rates. So obviously, people will go after safer options, be it the United States Treasury Bonds, or the American Gold Eagle coins.

I know what you mean it was only to make it less tragic...
 Smiley

Because it is, for them, a very tough time.
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June 19, 2015, 01:56:21 PM
 #270

But Greece already defaulted partially.  How do you call getting half of your debts wavered away ?
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June 19, 2015, 11:21:35 PM
 #271

^ He's talking about Iceland. Not Ireland.

My mistake, sorry.

Quote
What madame Lagarde is implying is that, in order to satisfy the greed of Goldman Sucks and other cartels, the Greek government should confiscate the pension funds, and hand it over to the troika. The Greek pensioners have already seen their pensions reduced to a fraction of the former levels. If madame Lagarde is going to get her own way, then we can see the pensioners starving to death in Greece.

It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...


I used to be a citizen and a taxpayer. Those days are long gone.
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June 20, 2015, 01:08:05 AM
 #272

But Greece already defaulted partially.  How do you call getting half of your debts wavered away ?

Hehe, indeed. It happened before, and it will happen again. Just take a hard look at the numbers -- there is no way in hell that Greece can repay its debts. This whole thing is some sort of a dog-and-pony show. It's ridiculous. Just get it over with already. Refinance it per usual, or Grexit. Let's do it.

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June 20, 2015, 01:21:32 AM
 #273

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!

They will buy Bitcoins, if you could guarentee them that the Bitcoin exchange rates will not got down by 20% or 30% all of a sudden (in less than a week's duration). Right now, Bitcoin is a very volatile currency, with highly unstable exchange rates. So obviously, people will go after safer options, be it the United States Treasury Bonds, or the American Gold Eagle coins.

It would still be easier to buy bitcoins, transfer them out and reconvert them to USD.
Not sure if there are any restrictions on Greeks buying dollars, but bitcoins can help circumvent that.


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June 20, 2015, 04:55:20 AM
 #274

Sorry but the Troika are plain idiots..They want to impoverish every country they lay their hands on..I mean what kind of economists impoverish a nation that then has no buying power, so in effect VAT will also go down because no one has any money to buy anything DUH  TROIKA = DIVS.. No offense but creating a sustainable and growing economy is far better for all concerned and this is what Tsipras is on about but the big Sharks that be just don't want a prosperous and buzzing economy of thriving people who can give back MORE in effect through direct and indirect taxes than by starving and waiting in the queues for aid to be fed..

Greece can earn plenty through deals with Russia and China and other countries..It is in a very nice spot geographically and once the Russian pipeline goes in and China grows it's presence in Piraeus that will be a nice chink of revenue coming in.. Greece has also a lot of land so more should be invested in the agrarian sector as well.. If the Brits want out of the Eurozone because they don't like the German axis muscling in on their sovereignty then why should it be such a disaster if Greece left? Greece did fine before the EU..now all Greece needs to do is get it's tax system in order and the ministry of corruption do its job to kick out all the corrupt govt officials.. Once Greece can clean up its act internally it can be a really prosperous place..oh we have the tourist industry as well, I forgot about that! Smiley


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June 20, 2015, 06:37:04 AM
 #275

Sorry but the Troika are plain idiots..They want to impoverish every country they lay their hands on..I mean what kind of economists impoverish a nation that then has no buying power, so in effect VAT will also go down because no one has any money to buy anything DUH  TROIKA = DIVS.. No offense but creating a sustainable and growing economy is far better for all concerned and this is what Tsipras is on about but the big Sharks that be just don't want a prosperous and buzzing economy of thriving people who can give back MORE in effect through direct and indirect taxes than by starving and waiting in the queues for aid to be fed..

Greece can earn plenty through deals with Russia and China and other countries..It is in a very nice spot geographically and once the Russian pipeline goes in and China grows it's presence in Piraeus that will be a nice chink of revenue coming in.. Greece has also a lot of land so more should be invested in the agrarian sector as well.. If the Brits want out of the Eurozone because they don't like the German axis muscling in on their sovereignty then why should it be such a disaster if Greece left? Greece did fine before the EU..now all Greece needs to do is get it's tax system in order and the ministry of corruption do its job to kick out all the corrupt govt officials.. Once Greece can clean up its act internally it can be a really prosperous place..oh we have the tourist industry as well, I forgot about that! Smiley


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/06/19/greek-debt-crisis/28973733/

yeah Russia just from its image and super power status hits lately would love to be seen as the 'savior of Greece' even if it hurt Russia as a bottom line with fiat $$$$

just to stick it in the EU's eye..not to mention NATO I"m sure as a condition there would be Russian ships in Greek ports..the whole reason for Crimea was to have
such access...with Russia and loans would Greece really say .if no longer part of EU ...er NO ..to a couple Russian bases? It is setup to be a WIN/WIN/WIN for Russia imho.

but defaulting 137B to the Russians in a few years would be solved in a more 'immediate' way imho

thou such a Russian Aid Package ..as a lever the EU will cave and make the loans ..again in my view...it will make a temp band aid and again kick the can down the road...they can probably lurch from crisis to crisis just fine ..the EU members calling the shots..for many years

better a 1/20th loss per year to the EU on this farce for 20 years then the whole thing due to the EU taxpayers etc in one shot

they will settle imho till the next crisis likely say in 4 months  ...this will repeat for many many months/years imho

truth be told the only way Greece can get out of this is dealing with the EU and 3% bonds etc and a 20 year plan...its either
that or the EU lets them go hat in hand to the Russian Trade pack thingy they are trying (or were) to build

strange bedfellows indeed

well played Greece well played..that will make them sit up and take more notice of your clout .a trade/loan alignment with Russia..stuck it to the EU good with that move

so again the fix is in the works (for now) again my speculation on all this geo politic vs just $$$ aside

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June 20, 2015, 07:01:53 AM
 #276

"Right now, what the market has priced in is a reasonably positive outcome, one that would delay any default,"

- Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. strategy at TD Securities in New York.

The U.S Strategy is already working on delaying the default and they just might give a better outcome to the situation.

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June 20, 2015, 07:14:58 AM
 #277

"Right now, what the market has priced in is a reasonably positive outcome, one that would delay any default,"

- Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. strategy at TD Securities in New York.

The U.S Strategy is already working on delaying the default and they just might give a better outcome to the situation.

It obviously looks like they are already successful as the default issue was taking place around April 07. Best outcome for us would be that Greece adopts btc but it would be too good to be true.

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June 20, 2015, 10:26:53 AM
 #278

This will probably happen as soon as capital controls are established. To transfer their money abroad many will exchange it to Bitcoin and re-exchange it on the destination. That happened in Cyprus 2013 and was certainly one of the reasons why Bitcoin was pumped that much during this time.

Greeks are stashing €10,000 bundles in their homes in fear of Grexit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!
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June 20, 2015, 12:54:55 PM
 #279

It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...

The Drachma will at least have some value. Anyway, if the Drachma experiment fails, the Greek government will make the Russian Ruble as the national currency and make the pension payments in Ruble. Also, most of the Greek oil imports come from Russia. They will be having no issues, if the Greeks pay them with Rubles instead of Euros.
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June 20, 2015, 01:33:28 PM
 #280

It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...

The Drachma will at least have some value. Anyway, if the Drachma experiment fails, the Greek government will make the Russian Ruble as the national currency and make the pension payments in Ruble. Also, most of the Greek oil imports come from Russia. They will be having no issues, if the Greeks pay them with Rubles instead of Euros.

As I understand it Greeks are very proud, I doubt they would switch currencies and (so obviously) be beholden to another power. At this point I don't believe they will default- the misguided idealogy of the EU seems likely to prevail. But what do I know? I'm just a guy on the internet Wink




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