philipma1957 (OP)
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April 19, 2015, 04:06:05 PM Last edit: April 26, 2015, 05:02:29 PM by philipma1957 |
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Please do not post a pick. For suchmoon's promo. We are going to have a one pick no change policy as keeping track of changes is too hard. I am setting this up ahead of the current thread which should have a result in 2 hours or so. Self modded in respect to seriouscoin Alh offered to relieve my self imposed burden of always picking -1.11% for myself but I will keep it which is the -1.01 to -1.25% range With no switching allowed waiting until 300 blocks are done to make a pick seems like a good idea and cutting off around block 1000 also make sense. So no picking from 0 to 300 blocks picking from 301 to 1000 blocks closed from 1000 blocks to 2016 blocks . last thread was a carry over. No winners https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012578.msg10985743#msg10985743Diff was -3.71%
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 19, 2015, 04:06:40 PM Last edit: April 19, 2015, 06:45:50 PM by philipma1957 |
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I am leaving this for revisions and changes. Suchmoon will do a new promo OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARDare here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525Rule changes are no pick switches. One pick and stick with the pick. Pick between blocks 301 and 1000------------------- subject to revision.
the next reward deadline 2:00 AM UTC, April 26, 2015 as per suchmoon.I have not made the blue highlight set yet. but the one pick is set. I am thinking the wait for 300 block pick for 700blocks increases spec post and reduces pick posts. Feel free to spec for a while. I think we will do new picks starting on the 300th block made . https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-3.40%) is the next prediction current price is 225 usd. Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,989,490,939 (-3.40%) Adjust time: After 2016 Blocks, About 14.1 days Hashrate(?): 332,607,933 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.1 minutes 3 blocks: 30.3 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 14:40 (4.5 minutes ago)
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notlist3d
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April 19, 2015, 06:44:29 PM |
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It is nice to see a negative difficulty again last week. I'm guessing that means were in for a little bit of a positive this week. Will be interesting to watch.
Some day I we should see some new gear coming online, but with low price of btc I'm still not sure when we will see next gen start taking over.
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coinits
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April 19, 2015, 07:59:53 PM |
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I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.
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Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 19, 2015, 08:05:49 PM |
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I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.
yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is -3.39% but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,996,464,248 (-3.39%) Adjust time: After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days Hashrate(?): 331,173,351 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.1 minutes 3 blocks: 30.3 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 16:0 (2.6 minutes ago) www.bitcoincharts.com is at -0.05% or 47582393724 this is more of a real world number Waiting until tues is a good idea to do picks. The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.
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Mikestang
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April 19, 2015, 08:47:57 PM |
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If the trends continues, this one should be up. But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn. Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.
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coinits
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April 19, 2015, 09:00:18 PM |
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If the trends continues, this one should be up. But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn. Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.
Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend.
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Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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ezeminer
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April 19, 2015, 10:15:30 PM |
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If the trends continues, this one should be up. But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn. Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.
Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend. Well it will be within like a 6% increase or decrease as the only thing that is changing the market is the abundance of used miners. Nothing new to hit the markets yet. My guess is there might be some hash that comes online and pushes difficulty early but -3 to +3 is where it'll be at.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 19, 2015, 11:29:53 PM |
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there is over clocking and down clocking factors. I just went from 1750gh to 1985gh via freq change that is a 13% uptick. the lower difficulty will offset the power efficiency loss of the overclocking. As my watts per gh went from .57 to .60
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notlist3d
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April 19, 2015, 11:52:12 PM |
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I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.
yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is -3.39% but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,996,464,248 (-3.39%) Adjust time: After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days Hashrate(?): 331,173,351 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.1 minutes 3 blocks: 30.3 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 16:0 (2.6 minutes ago) www.bitcoincharts.com is at -0.05% or 47582393724 this is more of a real world number Waiting until tues is a good idea to do picks. The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change. Bitwisdom already went up a decent amount with it being so new: Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,410,388,208 (-2.52%) Adjust time: After 1973 Blocks, About 13.6 days Hashrate(?): 337,500,209 GH/s
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Kexkey
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April 20, 2015, 01:45:55 AM |
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I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches. Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.
That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 20, 2015, 01:50:14 AM |
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I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches. Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.
That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...
Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion. Plus we all get a chance to see some trending http://btc.blockr.io/charts the april 19th is not up yet should be 144 and will be from both adjustments the april 20th will be purely this adjustment.
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coinits
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April 20, 2015, 01:52:07 AM |
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I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches. Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.
That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...
Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion. Plus we all get a chance to see some trending There will be a big rush to get the choice positions.
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Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 20, 2015, 01:54:45 AM |
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I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches. Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.
That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...
Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion. Plus we all get a chance to see some trending There will be a big rush to get the choice positions. yeah tues at block 300 there will be a rush, but waiting until block 600 or so could still be smart.
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skuser
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April 20, 2015, 03:48:08 AM |
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I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.
yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is -3.39% but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,996,464,248 (-3.39%) Adjust time: After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days Hashrate(?): 331,173,351 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.1 minutes 3 blocks: 30.3 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 16:0 (2.6 minutes ago) www.bitcoincharts.com is at -0.05% or 47582393724 this is more of a real world number Waiting until tues is a good idea to do picks. The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change. This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs5a6rDL.jpg&t=665&c=itiucHNQuxEA5g)
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 20, 2015, 03:55:58 AM |
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That is why the idea of using the 300 -1000 zone for your pick makes more sense. Right now we are getting a shit coin rush on nice hash so rates are pretty low. by the 300th block that may go by by and we get a better idea of the diff guess. Going past 1000 blocks or roughly the 26th of april would make it too easy. so 300-1000 blocks kind of works. I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.
yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is -3.39% but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,996,464,248 (-3.39%) Adjust time: After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days Hashrate(?): 331,173,351 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.1 minutes 3 blocks: 30.3 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 16:0 (2.6 minutes ago) www.bitcoincharts.com is at -0.05% or 47582393724 this is more of a real world number Waiting until tues is a good idea to do picks. The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change. This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs5a6rDL.jpg&t=665&c=itiucHNQuxEA5g)
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armedmilitia
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April 20, 2015, 04:55:54 AM |
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I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.
Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 20, 2015, 05:05:56 AM |
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I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.
Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.
please remember no picks till tues. As a courtesy I will allow this one to be placed on hold. Please everyone hold back for about 200 blocks or so. http://btc.blockr.io/charts shows 145 blocks for 4-19 which is pretty much 0.0% to .7 %
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Jamphone
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April 20, 2015, 05:18:18 AM |
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Without a price spike, we're going negative. You heard it here first.
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notlist3d
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April 20, 2015, 06:21:40 AM |
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Coming to end of first night of new difficulty slowly moving up a little:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,644,709,990 (-2.03%) Adjust time: After 1936 Blocks, About 13.3 days
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