What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[gentlemand]

I don't think much'll happen of note.

The reduction in supply is only a small percentage of coins bought and sold every day and it's so heavily flagged that it's likely to be baked into the price.

It's much more meaningful in the long game. I think the 2021 halving will be a far more interesting occurrence.

[Fakhoury]

I don't think much'll happen of note.

The reduction in supply is only a small percentage of coins bought and sold every day and it's so heavily flagged that it's likely to be baked into the price.

It's much more meaningful in the long game. I think the 2021 halving will be a far more interesting occurrence.

Why the 2021 halving will be more intersiting than the 2016 ones ?

[gentlemand]

I don't think much'll happen of note.

The reduction in supply is only a small percentage of coins bought and sold every day and it's so heavily flagged that it's likely to be baked into the price.

It's much more meaningful in the long game. I think the 2021 halving will be a far more interesting occurrence.

Why the 2021 halving will be more intersiting than the 2016 ones ?

Because it'll reduce annual coin inflation to 1.8% and 90% of all coins will be mined.

Right now it's still near 10% a year and there are many more coins to arrive.

Also all the stuff clever people are working on now will have come to fruition and so maybe there'll be some proper demand by then. There won't be enough new coins to satisfy that.

[oblivi]

There will be a pump because of pure hype and expectation on that date, followed by a nice little dump, followed by people selling, following by a continual of the uptrend, and finally, followed by people that sold crying because they no longer have BTC, as the price continues its rise to 5 figures.

[futureofbitcoin]

that's why it makes sense to have a constant emission that models after the amount of coins lost/year after a certain period of time instead of having it go to 0. There are so many good reasons for it:

1. It keeps the miners happy because miners get more value. Instead of losing coins making everyone else's coins worth more, it makes everyone else's coins more secure, because it gives more incentive for miners to mine.

2. You don't have to keep adding decimal points after too many coins are lost. It's easier psychologically for humans to use whole numbers with a few decimals than like 10 decimal places.

3. It keeps prices constant as well, since there's no inflation or deflation. This assumes that the currency is widespread and not volatile.

[Tzupy]

If bitcoin won't be obsolete or worse by then, I expect the seller pressure to be halved soon after the block halving.
Several months after this, price should peak at 10 - 20 times the level at the moment of halving.

[randy8777]

price will go up at the beginning for obvious reasons. but beside that i don't think much will happen without significant good news. it will make people hoard for a short time.

[coinableS]

Not much really, 12.5 every 10 minutes is still a lot. ~9 years from now when it drops to around 3 every 10 minutes will have a larger impact on the price, probably enough to push it into the 5 figure range. But honestly who knows, if there's an explosion in demand the price could seriously take off before any of the halvings. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[odolvlobo]

Nothing happened to the price as a result of the last halving. Nothing will happen to the price as a result of the next halving.
A drop in new coins by 1.8k BTC a day is nothing compared to 14 million coins currently in existence and the current 135k daily trade volume. There are so many other factors affecting the price, the drop of 1.8k BTC a day will have little effect on the price (at least in the short term).

how so, the chart clearly tell you that there was a x2 raise for the last halving, it will be the same for this or at worse we remain at current price(but at the expense of having the power cut in half, unless by that time, every farm will run with free electricity), i doubt it will go down, there is no reason for the price to go down at the halving, instead of going down...let's say, this year

The last halving was 11/28/2012 and the price that followed was flat for 3 months before the Cyprus bubble started. Furthermore, after the Cyprus bubble, the price was flat for another 5 months before the China bubble started.

So other than the two bubbles, the price was basically flat. The halving didn't seem to have any effect.

The beauty of a chart is that, like statistics, anyone can interpret it any way they want. That's why so many people believe in technical analysis.

[wakasaki808]

Blocks until mining reward is halved: 50,403

[Amph]

Nothing happened to the price as a result of the last halving. Nothing will happen to the price as a result of the next halving.
A drop in new coins by 1.8k BTC a day is nothing compared to 14 million coins currently in existence and the current 135k daily trade volume. There are so many other factors affecting the price, the drop of 1.8k BTC a day will have little effect on the price (at least in the short term).

how so, the chart clearly tell you that there was a x2 raise for the last halving, it will be the same for this or at worse we remain at current price(but at the expense of having the power cut in half, unless by that time, every farm will run with free electricity), i doubt it will go down, there is no reason for the price to go down at the halving, instead of going down...let's say, this year

The last halving was 11/28/2012 and the price that followed was flat for 3 months before the Cyprus bubble started. Furthermore, after the Cyprus bubble, the price was flat for another 5 months before the China bubble started.

So other than the two bubbles, the price was basically flat. The halving didn't seem to have any effect.

The beauty of a chart is that, like statistics, anyone can interpret it any way they want. That's why so many people believe in technical analysis.

well i was talking about what happened before the halving(3 month before the price was lower after that there was a 50% increase) usually the price begin to climb long before the halving happens, and the 2012 halving wasn't an exception to this theory

then like you said it raised, so in the end there was a significantly variation, the fact that it didn't happen exactly in the day of the halving doesn't mean much...

[OrientA]

Most people expect the price of Bitcoin to go up.
I used to think that as well but I am not so sure now.

Halving just change the monetary supply. If the market has the same amount of money flowing into BTC, then the price will rise.

[randy8777]

Most people expect the price of Bitcoin to go up.
I used to think that as well but I am not so sure now.

Halving just change the monetary supply. If the market has the same amount of money flowing into BTC, then the price will rise.

at this point there isn't much new money flowing into bitcoin. it's money that was already in the bitcoin economy. which is also one of the reasons bitcoin is hardly moving.

[pooya87]

i think we are going to see another big bubble as the result of 2016 halving. because of couple of reasons.

first many people are expecting that price would rise due halving and it is logical that less supply (less block reward) will result in increasing price.

second because of the accumulation phase that is going on right now and i think is going to be this way much longer. after this phase there will be a rise in price.

although i don't think that we can witness another big bubble like before, it is going to be big enough that the accumulators take a good profit from it.

[el kaka22]

That is what I think:

First, a month before the halving, the price will increase by some 30-50% because people will think that the supply will decrease so this is their last chance to grab coins.

Second, a week after halving, the price will stay at the higher position, as there's people starting to sell their coins to take profit.

Finally, a month after halving, the price will be at least 10% lower than original because people  started to take profit/stop loss, and bitcoin mining become less popular etc.

(the above prediction is based on a distributed altcoin's price, now it is valued at less than 10% of original)

[BillyBobZorton]

i think we are going to see another big bubble as the result of 2016 halving. because of couple of reasons.

first many people are expecting that price would rise due halving and it is logical that less supply (less block reward) will result in increasing price.

second because of the accumulation phase that is going on right now and i think is going to be this way much longer. after this phase there will be a rise in price.

although i don't think that we can witness another big bubble like before, it is going to be big enough that the accumulators take a good profit from it.

There will be a bubble but it will burst quick again if we haven't solved once and for all the blocksize problem an everything is set and done and clear by then. We need to remove all those doubts from the minds of potential investors and we need to do it quick. I wish the devs would get their shit together.

[Fakhoury]

I don't think much'll happen of note.

The reduction in supply is only a small percentage of coins bought and sold every day and it's so heavily flagged that it's likely to be baked into the price.

It's much more meaningful in the long game. I think the 2021 halving will be a far more interesting occurrence.

Why the 2021 halving will be more intersiting than the 2016 ones ?

Because it'll reduce annual coin inflation to 1.8% and 90% of all coins will be mined.

Right now it's still near 10% a year and there are many more coins to arrive.

Also all the stuff clever people are working on now will have come to fruition and so maybe there'll be some proper demand by then. There won't be enough new coins to satisfy that.

Is this valid bro. ?

"~9 years from now when it drops to around 3 (bitcoins) every 10 minutes"

If yes, what would be the inflation then and what will be the % of the mined coins ?

[gentlemand]

Is this valid bro. ?

"~9 years from now when it drops to around 3 (bitcoins) every 10 minutes"

If yes, what would be the inflation then and what will be the % of the mined coins ?

The answers are all here.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

By 2024 93-94% of all coins will have been mined and that halving would push coin inflation below 1%

It's possible the halvings might move up a little bit but that's how they'll play out.

[bitebits]

When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

The market tends to do the opposite of what the majority thinks. There's a clear consensus that the halving should drive the price up, just as it did the last time. Therefore my personal opinion is that it will either remain lateral or go down.

When the majority of people thinks that the apple falls from the tree, will the opposite happen?
Besides, we are so conditioned through the last 1.5 year that the price moves down, couldn't the opposite be up this time?

It is not a smooth adjustment, the new supply is decreased with a sudden 50%. Hard for the price to not react in the months leading towards the halving. Miners anticipate and will stop selling months before the halving, users will start accumulating/hodling, etc etc.

This is not rocket science, just replace bitcoin for apples and think what would happen if you would know the supply of apples would halve.

[oser41eric]

For this halving I don't believe much is going to happen at the time of halving. The good thing though there will not be as much sell pressure as there is now saying that though I don't think we are going to see some crazy price rise.

We might have the whales create a well timed pump to coincide with it but that is all there is not going to be more demand because of it is there>? Or the door is not going to burst with many more buyers, just a little less sell pressure which is good enough, miners don't get to dump so much on the market.