How much do you think 1 Bitcoin will be worth in 2020?

[ajareselde]

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Average "wisdom" of a crowd is not something that should be taken seriously, it's more of a laughing matter.
Since bitcoin highly depends up on related progress and speculative news, either way you turn this around , it will still be a high gamble.
One thing i know for sure; there's a lot of money to be made on bitcoin, and that money cant be made if bitcoin is allowed to fail.

cheers

[kenbytes]

We could be at $10,000 per bitcoin or even more but my guess is $2500 & to be honest I'd be very satisfied even if it's that.

[rjclarke2000]

The way things are going between $200-$400 wouldn't be too surprising. (Only saying this as it's been boring for so long.)

[futureofbitcoin]

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

I think this particular crowd might just be the slightest bit biased. Unless they've all personally pledged to pay $100,000 for 0.85 or so BTC in which case I applaud them.

If you remove the bottom 25% and top 25% and average the middle 50%, or if you take a median, I think it could be pretty accurate.

[Biodom]

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Average "wisdom" of a crowd is not something that should be taken seriously, it's more of a laughing matter.
Since bitcoin highly depends up on related progress and speculative news, either way you turn this around , it will still be a high gamble.
One thing i know for sure; there's a lot of money to be made on bitcoin, and that money cant be made if bitcoin is allowed to fail.

cheers

au contraire
Apparently, crowd based app predicted all last elections results.
but I agree that it is irrelevant here because btctalk crowd has on average a positive bias toward bitcoin.

[yakelbtc]

If bitcion will reach 10,000 so nice many people will be happy

[Shiver]

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Average "wisdom" of a crowd is not something that should be taken seriously, it's more of a laughing matter.
Since bitcoin highly depends up on related progress and speculative news, either way you turn this around , it will still be a high gamble.
One thing i know for sure; there's a lot of money to be made on bitcoin, and that money cant be made if bitcoin is allowed to fail.

cheers

With Crowd Intelligence you can aggregate the results, but there are a couple of key points that need to be followed for the  results to have any validity, which a vote like this thread will not provide:

1. Requisite Variety:  There needs to be a wide range of skills, from butcher/baker/candlestick maker etc.  Experts alone will not provide a better result, although their estimations should be included.  People who know nothing at all about the subject have just as much value when aggregating.

2.  The Crowd must not be allowed to confer, otherwise the there will be some transfer/entrainment that will reduce the accuracy, where people do not like to risk being at the outside of the herd.  Further, if all participants have access to the same information sources, then that too will cause it to fail.

There are a couple more points, but for the sake of brevity, if you think of the TV show "who wants to be a millionaire", the "Ask the audience" option is by far the most accurate choice, as they have to select an answer very quickly, don't have time to confer, and don't know what other people are choosing.  With that you can get accuracy in the 95%+ range, even if it is just guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, or the weight of something that nobody really knows the answer to.  James Surowiecki is the go-to guy on the subject, and wrote the book on the subject.

[lottery248]

would be worth at least $10.000 or $15.000 , because the demand of bitcoin would be skyrocketed.
we would need more independent miners to secure bitcoin, otherwise that is no good to bitcoin network.
let's see if people were in panic on buying HDD in 2020 if XT used in bitcoin core, i guess bitcoin would not be as sustainable as 2140, but i still believe in bitcoin goes $10.000 for the protocol.

[Pk880058]

would be worth at least $10.000 or $15.000 , because the demand of bitcoin would be skyrocketed.
we would need more independent miners to secure bitcoin, otherwise that is no good to bitcoin network.
let's see if people were in panic on buying HDD in 2020 if XT used in bitcoin core, i guess bitcoin would not be as sustainable as 2140, but i still believe in bitcoin goes $10.000 for the protocol.

why do you think that demand for Bitcoin will be skyrocketed in 2020(in just 4 and a half years from now)
I don't even believe that there are also these types of people that believe so much in Bitcoin.

[White sugar]

don't think that the near future of BTC is promisor, so much talk about XT thing, and people talking about rewrite the code itself because the original core is badly writen

[onlylikeloud]

0 or same. If it starts to skyrockets the gov will shut it down. All gov. Has to do is say it's used for illegal activity that supplies kids drugs through the mail.

[trinaldao]

0 or same. If it starts to skyrockets the gov will shut it down. All gov. Has to do is say it's used for illegal activity that supplies kids drugs through the mail.

so why you stay at here ?
why you join bitcoin comunity if you know bitcoin has no value ?

bitcoin is future of money

[onlylikeloud]

To 2020 year bitcoin will not be the main coin and the price will be very low. In the year 2018 a new coin, which will be a symbiosis of a few coins.

bitcoin COULD possibly be overtaken in a few decades, but it won't happen that quickly.

The world needs to first come to accept cryptocurrencies as a legitimate form of money, not a scam or pyramid scheme or internet play money. The average people need to believe that there is real value in cryptocurrencies, and that it is safe to use. Only then, can other cryptocurrencies thrive. Before then, if people dont' even trust bitcoin, they're definitely not going to use some new coin.

They could trust a currency like Monero that is totally untraceable and unlinkable.

the vast majority of people don't care about that. it'll only be within a very small niche.

Not true. That's the main reason a lot of people use Bitcoin.Gambling, drugs, moving money to an account in bitcoins means no s.s.n. And almost anyone not using it for that is just in it for the investment.

[onlylikeloud]

0 or same. If it starts to skyrockets the gov will shut it down. All gov. Has to do is say it's used for illegal activity that supplies kids drugs through the mail.

so why you stay at here ?
why you join bitcoin comunity if you know bitcoin has no value ?

bitcoin is future of money

There are ways to use Bitcoin NOW to make money does not mean it will be like that in 2020. We already seen China. Iceland, Vietnam, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Ecuador, Russia ban the use of Bitcoin as a payment. If it reaches 10k politicians will see it as a threat. Look what the USA has done to protect American interest in the Middle East. Refusing to go a gold standard is the whole reason behind most of it. What do you think these nations would do if a new currency that they had no control over even had a slight chance of taking over. Crush it with no effort.

[onlylikeloud]

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Yea but this is like going to Dallas Cowboys preseason game and asking who's going to win the super bowl. You know almost everyone's going to say Cowboys but that does not mean that it's the majority opinion.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

The way things are going between $200-$400 wouldn't be too surprising. (Only saying this as it's been boring for so long.)

Agree. That's quite possible scenario

[kenbytes]

BTC will not be more than 500$ in the next 5years   

[coinableS]

I am quite curious about this poll.
Reason: when there was a poll in Feb 2014 re bitcoin price in a year, the average of all answers was $2000, but in reality, it was ~$220 in Feb of 2015.
So, the wisdom of the crowds was totally wrong, however, maybe the questions were asked among bitcoin aficionados and hence, unreliable (as predictors).

$10K seems to be a sweet spot for the pole (and i voted for it as well), but i wonder if we are simply biased.
If the wisdom of the crowds is nonsense, then some models that people are proposing to make predictions about a future using blockchains are bogus as well.
I think that the accurate number would have been if you asked 1000-2000 average Joe/Janes the same question, but not here.
Just my 2sat.

Doesn't wisdom of the crowd add up all the results and then get the average guess, instead of the most popular guess?

So adding up all the results I am getting: 18,147,032
Divide 152 votes
= $119,388.36

That can't be right... or can it?

Yea but this is like going to Dallas Cowboys preseason game and asking who's going to win the super bowl. You know almost everyone's going to say Cowboys but that does not mean that it's the majority opinion.

Agreed, this is definitely skewed since it's being asked on a bitcoin enthusiast forum.  However if you asked random people on the street, they have no idea about the value of a bitcoin so those results would be wrong as well. It's not like a jar of jelly beans or how much a cow weighs were anyone can make a good guess.  I guess you would have to get a room full of bitcoin bears and bulls for a better result.

[johnyj]

I vote for 1 million, maybe for a brief amount of time, since the sell pressure will be very high at that level

1. hyperinflation is coming
2. 3D technology in semi-conductor efficiency raise
3. wide spread of bitcoin knowledge
4. Fork-tested robustness

[british]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.