How much do you think 1 Bitcoin will be worth in 2020?

[coinableS]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

You're right it's not that far away, but there will be two halvings during that time period. One in 2016 and again in 2020. Block rewards will only be 6.25BTC then.

[kwukduck]

I can't even see it surviving the upcoming fork disaster and if it does survive with say roughly half the current value, what's next? Somebody will come up with some idea that gets some community support again a year later, causing another fork, and another, and another...
No thanks, i think the average Joe will agree this is not going to work in daily life and can't sustain any value over any useful time.
It was a nice experiment though!

My vote would have to go to $0 but i'll be optimistic and put it on $10.

[gentlemand]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

If it looks like sticking around that price level after several more years of development, two halvings and ever increasing awareness then I think the party will've moved elsewhere and you can lop a zero or two off that.

[BitcoinAddicts]

probably $10,000 in 2020 with speculative bubble spikes value to more than $30,000 between now and 2020.

[Amph]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

from 2010 to today bitcoin rised x250, so it's not that far but this does not eman that it is not a significant time frame, there is the big possibility of a good increase that can adds two zeroes

[ashfaq]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

from 2010 to today bitcoin rised x250, so it's not that far but this does not eman that it is not a significant time frame, there is the big possibility of a good increase that can adds two zeroes

Adding two zeros to the price of Bitcoin is just an imagination and that to within a span of 4 years, it takes centuries for currencies to get adopted and get stable .

[exocytosis]

One cent.

[arandy]

The poll is still pointing out to $10.000 being the most likely, enough for me to score some extra BTC now when it's low 
Sure it may go a bit lower but i'm also pretty sure it's gonna go to €300 or more again within a year and pherhaps hit magical numbers when it gets more widely accepted.

[Biodom]

The poll is still pointing out to $10.000 being the most likely, enough for me to score some extra BTC now when it's low  
Sure it may go a bit lower but i'm also pretty sure it's gonna go to €300 or more again within a year and pherhaps hit magical numbers when it gets more widely accepted.

This poll was asked of the btctalk followers which are not entirely an non-committed group, hence the results might be skewed and have basically little predictive value.
In Feb 2014 when bitcoin was $800-900, a similar question was asked: "what would be bitcoin price in a year". The average was ~$2000, but in reality it became ~$220.

[coinableS]

The poll is still pointing out to $10.000 being the most likely, enough for me to score some extra BTC now when it's low  
Sure it may go a bit lower but i'm also pretty sure it's gonna go to €300 or more again within a year and pherhaps hit magical numbers when it gets more widely accepted.

This poll was asked of the btctalk followers which are not entirely an non-committed group, hence the results might be skewed and have basically little predictive value.
In Feb 2014 when bitcoin was $800-900, a similar question was asked: "what would be bitcoin price in a year". The average was ~$2000, but in reality it became ~$220.

Ahh, I see the pattern: ~$2,000 ended up being ~$200. So we just drop a zero off of what the most popular guess was. So that means in 2020 the price will be $1,000.

[wonkytonky]

or nothing.. or 100.000 and probably 1milj .. due to hyperinflation 

[electronicfactura]

Well in 2020 1 BTC will be worth of 100000 $.This I am saying because of the fast and steady adoption which we saw this year.This process will be even much more faster in coming years.

[klm bitcoin]

is very hard to make a predictions especially long term prediction. but I think bitcoin's value will reach more than $ 2000 in 2020

[noobtrader]

the price today is about 230, the electricity cost (@ 9cent) is 180 to create 1 btc
next halving within 1 year, i predict that price around 400 with electricity cost is about 360 to create 1 btc

so i think 2020 price should be about 800 - 1000 usd.

[futureofbitcoin]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

If it looks like sticking around that price level after several more years of development, two halvings and ever increasing awareness then I think the party will've moved elsewhere and you can lop a zero or two off that.

I normally agree with everything you said, gentlemand, and I agree with the reasoning in the post. What I am not sure of, is the timeline. Assuming bitcoin doesn't take off (price or in any other way), how long do you think bitcoin will last before the bigger players start to lose interest and bitcoin really starts to "die"?

Another year? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? I personally think it would be between 5-10 years, so that if nothing much happens, either really good or really bad, I think bitcoin may still be here in 2020, but probably not too long after that.

[noobtrader]

2020 is not that far it will stick to 500.

If it looks like sticking around that price level after several more years of development, two halvings and ever increasing awareness then I think the party will've moved elsewhere and you can lop a zero or two off that.

I normally agree with everything you said, gentlemand, and I agree with the reasoning in the post. What I am not sure of, is the timeline. Assuming bitcoin doesn't take off (price or in any other way), how long do you think bitcoin will last before the bigger players start to lose interest and bitcoin really starts to "die"?

Another year? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? I personally think it would be between 5-10 years, so that if nothing much happens, either really good or really bad, I think bitcoin may still be here in 2020, but probably not too long after that.

agreed, if price didnt rise to at least 800 in 2020. i think a lot of hashing power will dropped because it doesnt cover the electricity and 51% attack would be possible (and might be more profitable)

[edric]

why would you hope for hyper inflation? That seems like a stupid think to hope for, like a nuclear war.

Well, in a sense yes.  Hyper-inflation led to the rise of the Nazi party, so yes it would be geopolitically very dangerous.  But for bitcoin holders, it could prove very profitable since Bitcoin is a deflationary asset.

[gentlemand]

I normally agree with everything you said, gentlemand, and I agree with the reasoning in the post. What I am not sure of, is the timeline. Assuming bitcoin doesn't take off (price or in any other way), how long do you think bitcoin will last before the bigger players start to lose interest and bitcoin really starts to "die"?

Maybe I was being a drama queen. Time will tell. Let's go for 2024 instead.

From listening to the VCs, many of them have quite a lengthy time frame of a decade or so but that's irrelevant if adoption is still hopelessly flat or actively falling before their time frame runs out.  

The world is moving ever faster and I'd say gaining proper traction is a one shot deal for Bitcoin, not the technology it gave birth to.

It's not a passive thing waiting to be unearthed and repackaged some time in the future. It requires a lot of ongoing maintenance, commitment and effort from a lot of people to keep it ticking over and growing, and its potential future users have to see such toil taking place to develop the faith that it needs.

If we guess where the infrastructure should or could be in 2020 - shit exchanges gone forever, scalability dealt with, legal and regulatory grey areas cleared up, foolproof solutions for usage - and that doesn't look like it'll ever foster what it's intended to which is a decently-sized closed loop economy and lots of fiat interaction, then the future is looking dicey.

Miners will keep on trucking but they're backroom boys that the public is barely aware of. If the public faces that make it all usable such as the present and future Bitpays, Coinbases and exchanges eventually throw in the towel then it's not looking good and at present they're placing just as much speculative faith on the whole thing as anyone in this forum.

If it was effectively discarded en masse I don't think a resurrection would ever be on the cards. I think there's a relatively narrow window for it to take off and if it doesn't then no one will care other than those who tried to make it happen. It's a million miles away from being 'too big to fail'.

[Devesh]

If I go according to options in the poll, then 1000$ seems realistic.

[w00t]

It's funny how most of the posters who say something like "it can't get to 10k, that's too much" simply because they think it's too much, not because they have valid reasons why bitcoin will fail are also the people who tend to write illogical sentences with horrible grammar.



I mean if you have valid reasons for why bitcoin will fail, great. Bitcoin is an incredibly risky investment, and there are many problems that need to be solved before it can go mainstream, that is completely true.

Otherwise, saying that bitcoin will remain a few hundred or a few thousand simply because your little brain cannot comprehend the possibility of its price going up is quite laughable. In what scenario will bitcoin be worth $200-1000? If everything else stays exactly the same? That's a ridiculous assumption. Either things improve and bitcoin improves, thus increasing in price many-fold, or nothing happens, in which case people will start losing hope and price will go down. The chances of bitcoin staying at a price that's not so low it's basically dead, and yet not high enough to be relevant in the real world is very, very low. Not impossible, but very low.

I'm willing to bet that every single person who says bitcoin cannot reach 10k in this thread (other than people who thinks it will fail) did not do ANY critical thinking, and only looked at the current price and thinks 10k is too far off. Learn to think critically, people.

I think this is one of the best posts in this thread. If you think about it it really can go to 0 or near zero or somewhere very high (by today means). I've heard from senior members zero valuation visions which will be unfortunate but then saying we will be at 200 or 1000 USD is really ridiculous and really, really stupid, after two halvings I can't see anything less than 30k USD (after spike and drop) or zero/near zero as said already. I think 300k is not completely unlikely, saying it will be more than 1M is little bit far fetched for me (maybe for very short period of time.).

To sum it up I would say zero or somewhere between 30k and 300k.

For zero or near zero I would say there is about 20 % chance (for whatever technical or wide panic reason), with 80 % chance I would go for the more optimistic range.

All this valuations take into account today's purchasing power parity - if by 2020 a loaf of bread costs 200 USD for whatever reason or more then adjust it appropriately (now it shows between 1 and 3 USD in most civilized countries: http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_price_rankings?itemId=9)