Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

I see what you mean on the 1-2.

Check out a chart i've just put up.

#236

Nice chart! Has same effect as the 'truncated 5th' option, $200 was bottom of a wave 1, this is the top of 2 and we are now entering a 3 that should be pretty deep and dramatic. I prefer Matthew's count TBH - the  w-x-y correction looks more in proportion to the wave 1 drop time-wise.
Not sure why he considers it a w-x-y as opposed to an A-B-C, but the difference here, if any, is beyond my understanding of EW

It should be noted that though we do seem to have turned now, that both alternatives allow for another leg higher in this rally. I think eboard10 is looking for this - a minor 4th wave retracement here (which may be complete), then a final 5th up. Would be cool to see an update from him. I'm also not sure this impulse is complete either and would not be surprised to see this, though given the number of extensions in the minor 3rd of the [y] on this chart, it may very well truncate anyway (especially in China), meaning the top is already in. Either way, I think we will struggle to push much higher here - just putting it out there more as a something to watch out for over the next couple of days - we will know soon enough  
Thanks Africoin

I'm with you.

On the chart below, 1 and 2 was a run up driven by Greece speculation on EU financial economic stuff. Do we have more fueled speculation now vs then? DOubt it. And, if Greece couldnt break that EMA line, I doubt this one will.

My expectations are that some similar pattern will form here. Failed 5th - double top at 5.

If not, i'm still open to a high to $300, like you say.

My primary interest is whether we'll go below $200 this year, $150? If this is a 2, and we go won for a 3rd wave, we got to hit $150. We'll see.

Thanks for coming here and sharing. Add your EW thoughts when you can. I would like to bring ALL TA on one thread. I strongly believe combining EW with other TA is a superior technique.

[phoenix1]

Thanks for coming here and sharing. Add your EW thoughts when you can. I would like to bring ALL TA on one thread. I strongly believe combining EW with other TA is a superior technique.

You're welcome, shall do, though there are defo otheres out there with much better EW skills 

Thanks for keeping up this thread - its once of the best, most balanced, threads here now. Your current bearish bias is clear to see  , but you still post  technical analysis that contradicts your own views. That's refreshing.

Like you say, if we could get some our best analysts to post charts here, whatever method, that would be really cool.

[Afrikoin]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute


Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

[RyNinDaCleM]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute


Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

Honestly, it doesn't seem to have much correlation, imo. I would say it has more inverse correlation than following, but only marginally, almost negligibly. Since 2011, Bitcoin is up, over all, and gold is down. Some of the internal waves are with and some are against.

[Afrikoin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tapzq_1DQo4

Bitcoin Update 2015 - The Future of Bitcoin w/ Trace Mayer

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Hello all,
here is an interesting chart I put together today. Notice the very similar price action today as compared to last year's US government auction of Silk Road Bitcoins. As an event that will bring Bitcion to the public's attention (and may even garner new buying interest) the upcoming US Marshal's auction of bitcoins marks a significant fundamental driver of price for me. Ride the wave of 'the rumor' into harmonic targets but try not to be caught too long on the other side of the event.
Cheers
The Rational Investor

See chart on this link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qQWVxfwE-Previous-US-Gov-t-Auctions-As-A-Road-Map-For-Price-Action/

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

I believe wave (iv) is "in". I can count five waves down. At 283.38 level is where c=a*1.618. It is rare for C waves to be longer than a*1.618. It's possible to project wave (v) by using a channel connecting waves (ii) to (iv) and through the end of (iii). This impulse wave will likely complete on Oct 22

[8up]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rk2tHOdI-BITCOIN-DOWNTREND-IS-OVER/

2 year old log downtrend line finally broken with strong volume!

Target based on equidistant channel idea in combination with S/R levels.

[8up]

Even if faked. The volume speaks volumes!

[Afrikoin]

Gold & Silver Pumped-n'-Dumped After China Data

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-19/gold-silver-pumped-n-dumped-after-china-data

[Afrikoin]

.

My opinion on next days: bulls will bang their heads against resistance, but won't be able to break, and next weekend we start a long term downtrend.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute


Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

*snip*

Honestly, it doesn't seem to have much correlation, imo. I would say it has more inverse correlation than following, but only marginally, almost negligibly. Since 2011, Bitcoin is up, over all, and gold is down. Some of the internal waves are with and some are against.

Thanks for the chart Ryan

What if you ignore the early days when bitcoin was finding itself.

And then, phase shift the since 2013.

There is correlation since 2013 in my opinion. Not 1, but definitely not inverse correlation.

[Afrikoin]

This looks like a local triangle trying to break yearly vwap. If so, it denotes local 3.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

From reddit cooments

well there is almost definitely going to be another recession in the next couple of years (some indicators already suggest its started)

I think Yellen will pull out all the stops to stop it happening before the US election cycle next year, no way a republican would re-nominate her. (and financial crash will get blamed on current government)

so all the stops beings QE4 and possible negative interest rates to force banks to provide even more risky loans.

The question is really is bitcoin considered a safe haven asset and hedge against inflation like gold or a speculative investment that people cant afford to bet on during times of crisis.

The longer central banks have lower interest rates the harder it becomes to ever raise them again, personally I don't think they ever will by any meaningful amount unless they want to burst all the various credit bubbles to get it over and done with. If the most prosperous country on earth cant afford 0.25% interest rates you know everything is screwed. its being blamed on China but they are a production based economy. There is no western demand for Chinese goods so they cant sell their stuff, inventory levels are through the roof and commodities (oil, copper, lumber) have crashed because of this.

You think there's a difference between Republicans and Democrats in monetary policy? Lol. They're all keynesian, they're all neoclassicalist.

The fact that the US can't raise rates points to exactly what you say - extreme weakness in the economy, where a large part of economic activity is only happening because of free liquidity. And this activity-through-liquidity is not the kind of activity that generates increases in wealth or standard of living, it is merely profit games without meaningful production.


to be honest im not in the US so your local politics is not my strong point. monetary policy is the same as most so called democracies. offer tax breaks or spending promises to wealthy entities to buy votes and get elected. then borrow the money from the future to pay for today.

the whole system relies on the belief that everything will be ok in the end, aslong as everyone keeps spending. when people stop spending they need to incentivise it more, how do they do this? lower interest rates more and more to increase peoples spending power. how many $50,000 cars would be sold today if people couldnt get them on 0% finance? how many $500,000 houses.

also central banks keep the money printers on to devalue their local curreny to boost exports, there is a race to the bottom and everybody loses.

when you accept the fact that almost every politician is a sociapath their actions make alot more sense.

Yellen is probably the most powerful woman on earth currently, if the democrats lose the next election (and they will if there is a huge recession right before it) Yellen will be out so she will try every trick in the book to prevent it.

central banks and government policy is what is screwing everything up. Walmart is in deep trouble, they have had to give pay rises to their minimum wage employees at the same time as their revenue dropped. and this at a time when the dollar is strong and they are large importers.

in the 50's 60's and so on a working class man could support a family on his own, now both parents need to work, grandparents cant retire because their retirement schemes dont pay anything because interest rates are fixed so low.

does anyone actually believe that the USA is going to pay back its debts? hahaha they will write stand up comedy about this in the future im sure.

looks whats happening in Brazil and Russia atm, they entered recession couldn'y keep their interest rates at rock bottom so they had to raise them (to make governement bonds pay more to keep the government going) to over 10% each, how many people are going to default on their houses when their mortage goes up 10x? or even 5x? or even 2x?

a fuck tonne of people will default without a choice then the lenders will auction the houses off at reduced rates crashing the housing market, others who can afford it will end up with negitive equity property and choose to default sending it lower and lower.

/rant over