Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Why A Hedge Fund Manager Who Made A Killing From Subprime Is Buying Bitcoin

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/why-hedge-fund-manager-who-made-killing-subprime-buying-bitcoin

[Afrikoin]

i am fucking bullish.

waiting for danv's webinar later today

[Afrikoin]

The Trade 01

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsoSIMamN9g

[Afrikoin]

Raoul Pal ‏@RaoulGMI Feb 22

#bitcoin #btc It's looking explosive in Bitcoin world right now...

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/701836307950129153

[eboard10]

Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.

[Afrikoin]

Did anyone watch DanVs video webinar?

Please share summary.

[fortif78]

Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.

I still don't buy the triangle - Here's why:

In a triangle formation, at least in terms of EW (not sure if that's what you practice), each subwave of the triangle must subdivide into 3's.  And it works.. until around the end of the C. I would argue that (a) on your chart you prematurely place C, I would put it further up where we come in much closer range of the rising trend line; in the event that wave C actually finishes a little further up where I mentioned, I would then argue (b) wave D is in no way a 3 wave structure.

Now, couple these two points with the fact that literally everyone and their mothers are tracking this triangle, and I would say there's a good chance it doesn't play out.

Still may though   

[Morecoin Freeman]

The Trade 01

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsoSIMamN9g

Fun show but I believe Tone Vays is too bearish on bitcoin.

Their past few bitcoin predictions were not too accurate if I remember correct.
On the other markets I have no opinion.

[Afrikoin]

Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.

I still don't buy the triangle - Here's why:

In a triangle formation, at least in terms of EW (not sure if that's what you practice), each subwave of the triangle must subdivide into 3's.  And it works.. until around the end of the C. I would argue that (a) on your chart you prematurely place C, I would put it further up where we come in much closer range of the rising trend line; in the event that wave C actually finishes a little further up where I mentioned, I would then argue (b) wave D is in no way a 3 wave structure.

Now, couple these two points with the fact that literally everyone and their mothers are tracking this triangle, and I would say there's a good chance it doesn't play out.

Still may though    

You rais a good point in bold, and I agree with you. Eveyone is watching this structure now, and it might not unfold as expected. OR, it might unfold in a way that gets people off guard. OR it might just unfold as is and fool everyone into thinking we are done with the bear market and are in a new bull cycle. << sounds a lot like a wave 5

"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."

from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

It would be foolish to completely 100% believe an X move will materialize, a healthy bias is important and its part why I love this thread.  But at the end of the day, if someone asked you where the market was headed, you need to come up with a single answer. Which for me, in this case is bullish (regardless of my other doubts)

This triangle also reminds me a lot about the cup and handle pattern from last year. Remember what happened? It fell all the way to $198 on bitstamp and $162 on Bitfinex and then resumed up.

What also informs my bullish opinion is traders like Raoul from Real Vision TV, adambtsg, DanV are all mostly expecting some form of break up (if $380/ lower $352 holds). Even this random guy who is anon bitcoiner from tip tv finance show is forecasting $697 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9DqVWZXhE8&feature=youtu.be&t=4m45s

The thing is, a B wave retracement here was always going to hit $500 up to an allowance of $750. Could could up to $1000 depending on how the ABC wave structure on the larger cycle will form. (I have posted charts here before).

These two statements best summarize the mixed opinions at this level

Bearish: “$440-450 is my upper limit. Beyond that and I will be long term bullish on bitcoin… I am still bearish for the majority of 2016”

Bullish: “The market reacted very well to the [The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus] news, and we are seeing very strong support at this new 440$ level. I firmly believe this news will catapult bitcoin to 750. A correction is underway, i’m thinking we will keep pushing new highs day in day out for weeks if not months.”

[Afrikoin]

Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.

I still don't buy the triangle - Here's why:

In a triangle formation, at least in terms of EW (not sure if that's what you practice), each subwave of the triangle must subdivide into 3's.  And it works.. until around the end of the C. I would argue that (a) on your chart you prematurely place C, I would put it further up where we come in much closer range of the rising trend line; in the event that wave C actually finishes a little further up where I mentioned, I would then argue (b) wave D is in no way a 3 wave structure.

Now, couple these two points with the fact that literally everyone and their mothers are tracking this triangle, and I would say there's a good chance it doesn't play out.

Still may though    

You rais a good point in bold, and I agree with you. Eveyone is watching this structure now, and it might not unfold as expected. OR, it might unfold in a way that gets people off guard. OR it might just unfold as is and fool everyone into thinking we are done with the bear market and are in a new bull cycle. << sounds a lot like a wave 5

"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."

from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

It would be foolish to completely 100% believe an X move will materialize, a healthy bias is important and its part why I love this thread.  But at the end of the day, if someone asked you where the market was headed, you need to come up with a single answer. Which for me, in this case is bullish (regardless of my other doubts)

This triangle also reminds me a lot about the cup and handle pattern from last year. Remember what happened? It fell all the way to $198 on bitstamp and $162 on Bitfinex and then resumed up.

What also informs my bullish opinion is traders like Raoul from Real Vision TV, adambtsg, DanV are all mostly expecting some form of break up (if $380/ lower $352 holds). Even this random guy who is anon bitcoiner from tip tv finance show is forecasting $697 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9DqVWZXhE8&feature=youtu.be&t=4m45s

The thing is, a B wave retracement here was always going to hit $500 up to an allowance of $750. Could could up to $1000 depending on how the ABC wave structure on the larger cycle will form. (I have posted charts here before).

These two statements best summarize the mixed opinions at this level

Bearish: “$440-450 is my upper limit. Beyond that and I will be long term bullish on bitcoin… I am still bearish for the majority of 2016”

Bullish: “The market reacted very well to the [The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus] news, and we are seeing very strong support at this new 440$ level. I firmly believe this news will catapult bitcoin to 750. A correction is underway, i’m thinking we will keep pushing new highs day in day out for weeks if not months.”

Also, if you think a- b on the chart is a 3 way structure, then so is c- d. They look vastly similar, only on a lower degree

[Afrikoin]

Cup and handle from last year




what actually happened

[Afrikoin]

Well that did not exactly follow the pattern I was expecting. On the positive, the new bottom seems to be forming around ~420:



This is not yet clear on the picture, but it is suggested by momentum indicators. The next 24 hours will be important.
If the daily can come back from its oversold condition, which I think it will, we are doing good.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $419.85)

[stoat]

Looks like BTC is fucked

[Gillette]

Looks like BTC is fucked

Looks like your ETH is fucked which has no real use and 0 adoption !

[stoat]

Looks like BTC is fucked

Looks like your ETH is fucked which has no real use and 0 adoption !

Doesn't look that way where im sitting

[Afrikoin]

Very balanced view by Brian armstrong coinbas CEO

What Happened At The Satoshi Roundtable

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Very balanced view by Brian armstrong coinbas CEO

What Happened At The Satoshi Roundtable

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Thanks for this. Anyone who owns bitcoin and wants to retain value should read the article, I had no idea the situation was as critical as Mr. Armstrong makes clear. 

[nanobrain]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

[Afrikoin]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

Well i would disagree with (bold).

That's one conclusion.

There's also A LOT more!

$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg.  DanV's chart. You must have missed it.

And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100

So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.

That's IMO

[Afrikoin]

Very balanced view by Brian armstrong coinbas CEO

What Happened At The Satoshi Roundtable

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Thanks for this. Anyone who owns bitcoin and wants to retain value should read the article, I had no idea the situation was as critical as Mr. Armstrong makes clear. 

True.

I think it is a REAL risk to this asset class that cannot be ignored. And matters for price. Bitcoin will get through it eventually, but it might take a while and price might be suppressed for a while. A reality check