Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

"""Took a 'lil bit o' profit at 292 bfx from 272. I feel the market wants 300 though. The only place we don't look overbought to me is on the weekly and still some room on the 3d. I'd like to see a pop past 316 (2000 CNY) and consolidation above 300 (especially above 2000 CNY) to confirm we have a new trend, and then I'd like to see some slower growth into the halvening speculative pump. We just got out of a 2 year bear market from a 5 year bull market, and I'd love to see another long season of bull!"""

[1715304280]

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[1715304280]

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[1715304280]

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[adaseb]

"""Took a 'lil bit o' profit at 292 bfx from 272. I feel the market wants 300 though. The only place we don't look overbought to me is on the weekly and still some room on the 3d. I'd like to see a pop past 316 (2000 CNY) and consolidation above 300 (especially above 2000 CNY) to confirm we have a new trend, and then I'd like to see some slower growth into the halvening speculative pump. We just got out of a 2 year bear market from a 5 year bull market, and I'd love to see another long season of bull!"""

That's a big IF.

If we break the 300-316 mark there will be a large rally because I am sure many are short around $300 or so.

However the halving is many months away, from $300 we can still go down to the $200 and back up within 9 months.

[Afrikoin]

Simple Moving Average on the weekly.

pattern looks similar-sih

Upto $400?

[Afrikoin]

I'm looking at the mid long term and seems we're looking to find a B.



Ryndiclem had posted this a while back

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A. 

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes


And another showing the time for wave-(4)


The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.

[Afrikoin]

"""Took a 'lil bit o' profit at 292 bfx from 272. I feel the market wants 300 though. The only place we don't look overbought to me is on the weekly and still some room on the 3d. I'd like to see a pop past 316 (2000 CNY) and consolidation above 300 (especially above 2000 CNY) to confirm we have a new trend, and then I'd like to see some slower growth into the halvening speculative pump. We just got out of a 2 year bear market from a 5 year bull market, and I'd love to see another long season of bull!"""

That's a big IF.

If we break the 300-316 mark there will be a large rally because I am sure many are short around $300 or so.

However the halving is many months away, from $300 we can still go down to the $200 and back up within 9 months.

My thoughts presently.

All we have to do is at least be at bottom by halving.

SO that could mean going up now, then down and possibly retesting $200/ $160 (at/just in time for halving).

Recall October last year market tanked from $475 to $152 in January Feb. That is 4 months.

July/August halving minus 4 months = around April/May.

So we have until April to have a top and still bottom in time for halving.

its the B i posted on chart above

*thinking out loud*

[Zarathustra]

Wave C is behind us. At least according to the master:



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12312220#msg12312220

[Afrikoin]

Wave C is behind us. At least according to the master:

[img]https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1441229451360.png&t=557&c=nfx1dquf48bJQw

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12312220#msg12312220

Maybe not.

There are people here (bitcointalk) who disagree.

Healthy disagreement

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Wave C is behind us. At least according to the master:

We're discussing your wave count in a German Elliott forum. Two users there are still looking for an impulse pattern since c. They believe c will terminate beneath 100.

http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=368017

[Afrikoin]

Wave C is behind us. At least according to the master:

We're discussing your wave count in a German Elliott forum. Two users there are still looking for an impulse pattern since c. They believe c will terminate beneath 100.

http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=368017

[Zarathustra]

Wave C is behind us. At least according to the master:

[img]https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1441229451360.png&t=557&c=nfx1dquf48bJQw

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12312220#msg12312220

Maybe not.

There are people here (bitcointalk) who disagree.

Healthy disagreement

Yes, healthy disagreement, but the master's track record is impressive.

[Afrikoin]

[elasticband]

 

[Zarathustra]

http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=379150

[Afrikoin]

http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=379150

Thanks for sharing!

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Soars As China's Creeping Capital Controls Loom

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-25/bitcoin-bullion-soar-chinas-creeping-capital-controls-loom

[SmoothCurves]

The halving was a new concept in 2012. I expect traders will move in advance to the halving rather than wait. The effect on price might be more volatile than it was in the past.

[Afrikoin]

[sickpig]

ROFL

you made my day.

[Afrikoin]

This is a significant area for a short term reversal on the 4H, with ~268~ a fair target in any case as a iv wave area.



This impulse could be 1 or A which we could use to play the move on breakdown or better w2 form.