Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Hyena]

I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.

Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.

Who was speaking plainly of Roger Ver? The video I linked also gives us a hint that Jeff himself is buying bitcons, look at the 7:12 of the video if you missed it.

I've been wanting to buy more bitcoin and it rose to 450$ so fast that I've been waiting/hoping for a pull back so this was a little bit of a blessing for me too, so I guess we will have to thank Mike for that 

If Jeff bought in at 380$ then why on Earth should I remain bearish? Obviously I bought in at 380$ also and right now at 414$ prices it seems it was a right thing to do.

[Afrikoin]

I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.

Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.

Who was speaking plainly of Roger Ver? The video I linked also gives us a hint that Jeff himself is buying bitcons, look at the 7:12 of the video if you missed it.

I've been wanting to buy more bitcoin and it rose to 450$ so fast that I've been waiting/hoping for a pull back so this was a little bit of a blessing for me too, so I guess we will have to thank Mike for that 

If Jeff bought in at 380$ then why on Earth should I remain bearish? Obviously I bought in at 380$ also and right now at 414$ prices it seems it was a right thing to do.

Will watch. Thanks for th time link. I didn't watch the video, i assumed it was all about Ver.

Still, Jeff could be wrong or right.

Let us watch and see how price moves. Have to break and hold above $431.

[Afrikoin]

Until I see price conclusively below that lower trendline (currently) at $320 for me bull mode is still on.

Yes. The bullmarket is still on, even if BTC falls to $285, looking at the bigger picture, this could still still play out as a likely test of extreme lower limits of bull trend.

But what this price action proves, is what I told you earlier in this thread.

"Your Pitchfork TA, sucks!"

Get rid of it. You clearly aren't able to recognise correct conditions in which to apply it, and it is only filling your head full of delusion.

I prefer this pitchfork:

[RyNinDaCleM]

More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.

...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast

[Afrikoin]

More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.

...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast

Is there allowance in your chart for a speculative pre-halving bubble? Possibly post halving?

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Technical Analysis - 31

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTOiZr-k05g&feature=youtu.be&a

[Afrikoin]

"Looking back. This could be the final dip before going up. Or it goes down and sideways like 2015."

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/429acu/daily_discussion_saturday_january_23_2016/cz8qza3

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Look here.

We cansee why there is such a clear division between traders calling for a jump up to $650 and others calling for a break below $350 to $320, other as far as $250 and even others as lows as $150

We are sitting on just above 200 EMA, and there is a support line from $198 low in August.

There is also another longer term support line from back in 2013 touching at $41, and $63.

Now, if we break 200 EMA to the downside, a $276- $250 is the next logical level of support if indeed, price is to continue on a trend up. If $250/$276 holds, it is a nice support to bounce off from and try recapture $500 and/or above 200 EMA.

The support line from $198 is testing now,  I do not see it holding TBH, and see price falling through.

Therefore, for the next few weeks, I am looking at $250 as a target.

[RyNinDaCleM]

More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.

...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast

Is there allowance in your chart for a speculative pre-halving bubble? Possibly post halving?

In this chart? No... But it's not the only possible count. I just added the extra lines and updated with it since it is following nicely for now. Some other ideas are a quick and dirty SR type dump which would be over in time to allow for a rally pre-halving. Another is we continue a down trend but somewhere in the middle, halving happens and produces a nice rally (pre, during or post). In the latter, the big rally would happen after the fact, just as it did in 2012. A third option is that we keep more of a sideways range. A BIG range. Get a rally (pre, during or post-halving) that takes us up in a continuation since the $500 touch. Then, when the halving hype wears off, we continue the bear market, finishing up somewhere in 2017 and very anxious for the "historical wave-III".

I know this isn't what anyone here wants to hear, and I am still bearish in the short to medium term, but unless this is the 5th of a 3, then we are still in "Historical wave-II" and will head back toward the lows eventually. In the case that we are in 5 of (3) right now (Where 1200 was 3 of (3) ), then there will be many disappointed bulls around here when we only get marginally higher ATH than previous and we see a bear market that follows that would dwarf the great bear of 2014/15.

[Tzupy]

Time to bump this thread... with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/

In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).

About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Correlations to Macro Environment: Gold and Yuan Standouts

https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-correlations-to-macro-environment-gold-and-yuan-standouts

[Afrikoin]

I love these charts!

They reinforce a the theme we all care about - why we are here. Bitcoin as a mainstream accepted digital asset. Digital gold.


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[Afrikoin]

Time to bump this thread... with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/

In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).

About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).

Dude , thanks for this! For bumping up the thread too. Market has been sideways choppy dragging. And it is obvious we are waiting for a break (out).

Like you, I have been watching if market plays out similar to May - June - August 2014. Mostly to see if it plays out similarly but with a factor of X2/ X1.5

Also because it looks like an ab ($346 - $687) lower magnitude of AB ($198 - $500)

I am off to a fieldwork. So won't be posting much this week. Please post when you can. Especially fundamentals - fallen off the wagon on this especially.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

From DanV

Just to highlight one possibility that has been opened since early 2015 which I covered in my Youtube video in early 2015 as a possibility (rather a long video) but I am becoming more and more open to it. That is since BTCUSD's earliest price data available, it might have completed a wave cycle at Nov 2013 high. In this scenario, it would likley take several years to retest ATH and could continue sideways chop or meander to the downside for lot longer than many might be willing to consider possible.

Besides the possible wave counts, what you have to wonder is, that so many are relying on weekly MACD and either reading is as bullish development or wishing it will be more accurately. However, this is a second time MACD is crossing its signal line to the downside on this weekly time frame, so where might it lead to?

Because if we have this scenario and MACD develops bearish momentum then you will be left speechless whilst considering the implication. Here is the chart:

[Afrikoin]

I posted this 3 months ago

[Afrikoin]

Bullish forecast

scalability has been addressed as far as i'm concerned. segwit + 10MB limit will mean very high capacity. not sure what all the fuss is about with bitcoin classic and now the new "more sensible" BIP for 2MB blocks. sure 2MB are more sensible but not necessary with segwit. I'm all for 2MB but would rather see segwit and 6 months later when bitcoin TX vol has once again doubled increase the block size + implement more "segwit" like thingys, everything going to work out... fact everyone is getting ready for a fork means low prices.


Adam's prediction: <360 never again
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 367

from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

[Afrikoin]

[spazzdla]

We might just see a civil war.. Alas a lot or following classic..