Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Here is the GABI report to their investors advising a sell and 25% chance of COIN ETF approval before the ETF decision.

These guys IMO are some of the 'whales' and 'insiders'. ex Oil Ex commodity pro traders with 20 yrs experience treading on bitcoin noob traders.

GABI goes on to write that it projects a 25% chance of approval

http://www.globaladvisors.co.uk/media/Factsheets/gabi201702.pdf
 

[Afrikoin]

How about you share a chart with an alternative count and analysis?

Otherwise,  there's not much in your comment

my summed up analysis is already in your topic.

I have gone over a bit of your history, and posts on this thread.

You are a troll.

i am going to ignore you.

And delete your posts.

Is there any way to ban you from this thread?

[Afrikoin]

bitcoin is going parabolic

[boyshx]

if going parabolic then how can you expect a dip to 900$ afrikoin?

[shannen87]

if going parabolic then how can you expect a dip to 900$ afrikoin?

Actually @boyshx, parabolic means going UP then falling DOWN.

[silverfuture]

Down we go. I'm all cash for the portion I'm willing to risk on exchanges.

[reddibrek]

To all those who are sure an intermediate drop or even a reversal is not possible: please explain how scaling will be resolved smoothly? Seems to me the best-case scenarios for this chronic problem are thin on the ground.

The TA in this thread seems to go quite nicely with the rate at which the percentage of Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are increasing.

When will the scaling happen? Do we have a firm time frame?

No, not really.

The problem is multi-faceted.

1. Scaling must happen soon to allow more transactions than the current 3 or 4 per second. The "mempool" (backlog of transactions to process on the blockchain) is frequently ballooning in size, causing increasing delays (anything up to a couple of days has been reported) and increasing transaction fees, at rates no-one thinks is safe.

2. Until recently it was more or less taken for granted among many that the Bitcoin Core team proposal to solve scaling, known as "Segwit", would be adopted willingly by miners and therefore activate. A threshold of 95% of mining power has to adopt Segwit for it to activate. This threshold now appears to have been hopelessly ambitious; Segwit adoption among miners has plateaued at around 25% for several months now.

3. There is another proposal on the table - "Bitcoin Unlimited". Taking a very different approach - some say the original intention of Satoshi - to the problem (not going to try to brief on the technicalities here), Bitcoin Unlimited appears to fast be gaining traction. As of recently Unlimited adoption has overtaken Segwit at speed. Check here: https://coin.dance/blocks

4. If Bitcoin Unlimited really gains enough traction for miners to be confident enough to begin using the scaling features it provides, there is a distinct possibility that this may split the Bitcoin chain, something that has been unthinkable until now. At any rate, there are a lot of claims that the software and the effects of its scaling features on the network have not been tested enough.

Thank you!

Please feel free to come back and share your opinion on the hard fork

I am glad to see someone else with a level head on the matter. You know, a lot of bitcoiners are permabulls and do not like the reality of any bearish news or bearish TA. Always in denial

Have you been following this thread for a while?

I ask because my TA has always made room for a possible surprise leg down and the hard fork (or possible HF) was my main reason for absurdly suppressed prices. You know, like $300 on the poll above

I've been generally lurking for years, including checking your thread for a while. Thanks for putting all the effort into keeping it updated.

Regarding the critical issue of scaling, which is coming to a head now whether anyone likes it or not, it makes me feel for the first time ever that the market really is entering a "greater fools" phase, where the only real hope of price increases is based on FOMO buyers who don't understand the implications of what is going on.

Some have been pointing to the Ethereum split last year for comparison. I think that will look like a piece of cake relative to a split in Bitcoin, if it happens.

[boyshx]

if going parabolic then how can you expect a dip to 900$ afrikoin?

Actually @boyshx, parabolic means going UP then falling DOWN.

Yes but you don't know if the UP move will end up at 1300$ or at 13000$

I hope you are right by the way and the dip is coming. And I hope this time it lasts more than 5 minutes so I'll have the chance to buy

[wpalczynski]

Let the HF wars begin:

critical bug in BU exploited, nodes drop by 60%
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5zdkv3/bitcoin_unlimited_remote_exploit_crash/

[silverfuture]

To all those who are sure an intermediate drop or even a reversal is not possible: please explain how scaling will be resolved smoothly? Seems to me the best-case scenarios for this chronic problem are thin on the ground.

The TA in this thread seems to go quite nicely with the rate at which the percentage of Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are increasing.

When will the scaling happen? Do we have a firm time frame?

No, not really.

The problem is multi-faceted.

1. Scaling must happen soon to allow more transactions than the current 3 or 4 per second. The "mempool" (backlog of transactions to process on the blockchain) is frequently ballooning in size, causing increasing delays (anything up to a couple of days has been reported) and increasing transaction fees, at rates no-one thinks is safe.

2. Until recently it was more or less taken for granted among many that the Bitcoin Core team proposal to solve scaling, known as "Segwit", would be adopted willingly by miners and therefore activate. A threshold of 95% of mining power has to adopt Segwit for it to activate. This threshold now appears to have been hopelessly ambitious; Segwit adoption among miners has plateaued at around 25% for several months now.

3. There is another proposal on the table - "Bitcoin Unlimited". Taking a very different approach - some say the original intention of Satoshi - to the problem (not going to try to brief on the technicalities here), Bitcoin Unlimited appears to fast be gaining traction. As of recently Unlimited adoption has overtaken Segwit at speed. Check here: https://coin.dance/blocks

4. If Bitcoin Unlimited really gains enough traction for miners to be confident enough to begin using the scaling features it provides, there is a distinct possibility that this may split the Bitcoin chain, something that has been unthinkable until now. At any rate, there are a lot of claims that the software and the effects of its scaling features on the network have not been tested enough.

Thank you!

Please feel free to come back and share your opinion on the hard fork

I am glad to see someone else with a level head on the matter. You know, a lot of bitcoiners are permabulls and do not like the reality of any bearish news or bearish TA. Always in denial

Have you been following this thread for a while?

I ask because my TA has always made room for a possible surprise leg down and the hard fork (or possible HF) was my main reason for absurdly suppressed prices. You know, like $300 on the poll above

I've been generally lurking for years, including checking your thread for a while. Thanks for putting all the effort into keeping it updated.

Regarding the critical issue of scaling, which is coming to a head now whether anyone likes it or not, it makes me feel for the first time ever that the market really is entering a "greater fools" phase, where the only real hope of price increases is based on FOMO buyers who don't understand the implications of what is going on.

Some have been pointing to the Ethereum split last year for comparison. I think that will look like a piece of cake relative to a split in Bitcoin, if it happens.

It's not smart money that is buying bitcoin and the alts rights now IMO. How high it goes before coming down depends on the number of rich fools and how long it takes for the smart money that has been holding and/or bought months ago start to dump hard first. 

[wpalczynski]

If bitcoin has a contentious HF it will be orders of magnitude more bloody than the ETH/ETC debacle.  I think it will set us back by years in terms of adoption and price.

[Afrikoin]

If bitcoin has a contentious HF it will be orders of magnitude more bloody than the ETH/ETC debacle.  I think it will set us back by years in terms of adoption and price.

it will be less bloody if both camps agree to Segwit + 2MB HF

Just saying there is also the option of a compromise

[Dalida]

Sorry gentlemen,

When is this HF decision going to be made ? are we expecting a flash crash or a slow progression short ?

[york780]

Depends on it. I expect that we are slowly going down from now on. Hard to say how the market reacts. Beware that not the whole market is active right now, china is sitting at the sideline for now. When they are coming back between the lines i expect that we go down untill hardfork.

Because of the low volume of the last couple days you can see that the market is not sure which way we are going, that means that a lot of BTC players are in the altcoins right now. When BTC gets hardforked they got burned because of altcoin buble or altcoin takes a bigger marketcap than it has now as a alternative for bitcoin.

Africoin is right. Better to be in fiat right now and watch where this is going. Hardfork will happen this year.

[molecular]

it will be less bloody if both camps agree to Segwit + 2MB HF

not going to happen. segwit + BU, maybe. But probably also that: a NONO.

So dash, xmr, eth and/or whatever other shitcoin manages to get enough hype behind it will be bubbling to #1 crypto at some point (bitcoin dominance < 50%... seems unthinkable now, but just wait a year or so)

This makes me sad.

[molecular]

if going parabolic then how can you expect a dip to 900$ afrikoin?

Like it dipped to $150 or whatever after going parabolic to $1250 in late 2013?

[shannen87]

Depends on it. I expect that we are slowly going down from now on. Hard to say how the market reacts. Beware that not the whole market is active right now, china is sitting at the sideline for now. When they are coming back between the lines i expect that we go down untill hardfork.

Because of the low volume of the last couple days you can see that the market is not sure which way we are going, that means that a lot of BTC players are in the altcoins right now. When BTC gets hardforked they got burned because of altcoin buble or altcoin takes a bigger marketcap than it has now as a alternative for bitcoin.

Africoin is right. Better to be in fiat right now and watch where this is going. Hardfork will happen this year.

You suggest selling both cold stash of btc?
I mean we all have some btc saved for long term, should we sell all?

[Afrikoin]

my bitcoin price analysis this week

summary of my thoughts

Bitcoin Price Analysis 15.3.17

https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/03/15/bitcoin-price-analysis-15-3-17/

[Afrikoin]

You can tell sentiment has changed

Today, first 2 pages of r/bitcoin are about Core, BU and hardforks


Vs 2 weeks ago when first 2 pages of r/bitcoin were all about

moon, gold, ATH and moon

[Afrikoin]

it will be less bloody if both camps agree to Segwit + 2MB HF

not going to happen. segwit + BU, maybe. But probably also that: a NONO.

So dash, xmr, eth and/or whatever other shitcoin manages to get enough hype behind it will be bubbling to #1 crypto at some point (bitcoin dominance < 50%... seems unthinkable now, but just wait a year or so)

This makes me sad.

Hi molecular ?

Can you recommend a read (long ones too) that summarize the core BU VIa BTC debate?

With all the pros and cons of each side

Thanks