Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!

[Wendigo]

I am thinking of starting a 'gambling diary' for 2016 where I will be writing down my bets every day in a spreadsheet. At the end of the year I will calculate what the result is from my betting strategies and what I need to improve on for 2017  

[blackmachinegun]

for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, smile emotikon

Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not.

people who've won and profit. I'm sure he would go to continue gambling. if you can add to profits for the first months ahead let us know. gambling can to be profitable in the long run!

[talkbitcoin]

for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, smile emotikon

Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not.

people who've won and profit. I'm sure he would go to continue gambling. if you can add to profits for the first months ahead let us know. gambling can to be profitable in the long run!

whether or not gambling can be profitable depends on a simple fact, which is discussed at length throuoght this topic and the two links in OP.
and that simple fact is LUCK
so gambling is profitable if you get lucky, and it is not if you don't get lucky (assuming system is fair)

[wormat22]

for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, smile emotikon

Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not.

people who've won and profit. I'm sure he would go to continue gambling. if you can add to profits for the first months ahead let us know. gambling can to be profitable in the long run!

whether or not gambling can be profitable depends on a simple fact, which is discussed at length throuoght this topic and the two links in OP.
and that simple fact is LUCK
so gambling is profitable if you get lucky, and it is not if you don't get lucky (assuming system is fair)

Agreed, and not just about luck in the game - luck in your timing. Luck that you just don't happen to be there when that red streak comes around.

[Mr. Big]

gambling will not be profitable unless you have your own gambling site, casino or church!

That is true,, if you own a gambling site, and you are the one imposing the house edge, then the favor is yours, there is only low tendency that you'll be bankrupt... 

[Kepler510]

I am thinking of starting a 'gambling diary' for 2016 where I will be writing down my bets every day in a spreadsheet. At the end of the year I will calculate what the result is from my betting strategies and what I need to improve on for 2017  

I think, it's a very good idea and really help you to find out about the benefits you get from gambling. And if that is done I am sure you will take a very thoughtful decision, because if you don't take a wise decision. Next year you will experience a fairly stressful and less fun. My point is if in 2016-2017 you experience defeat. Then the next year you have to be more careful in gambling, so you'll get a great victory or defeat. Don't forget if you love to gamble always use strategy to gain victory and ambition to control your thoughts

[TwitchySeal]

Actually it's 49 - 51  isnt it?

51-49=2

Hmm interesting , i never thought of this, i always calculated it with 49-51.

Ok then, so it's 49.5% win, 49.5% loss, and 1% house comission.

Commision and house edge are not the same.  House edge assumes the house is playing the game with you (Against you, really).  Commision refers to a fee the house charges in exchange for dealing a game.  The fee is usually directly affected by the amount bet, like a poker tournament that charges $1000 which goes to the prizepool plus $150 fee that they keep no matter what.  Some games , like Baccarat  have both.  If you Bet player, you are up against the house edge.  But you can also bet Banker, which give YOU the house edge, but for that they charge you a commission.

To make things easy to explain, lets assume we are playing a game against the house that only has two possible outcomes. Either  Lose 100 units or win 200 units, and the house wants to earn 1% of every unit bet.  There are two ways they can do this, by gaining an edge or by charging a commission:

If they charge a commission you could have a true 50% chance of either winning 200 units or losing 100.  However, whenever you won, you would have to pay the house a 2 unit fee.  (this is similar to the banker bet in baccarat)

If they don't charge a commission, they could make their money by changing the game so that the the player would win only 49.5% of the time, instead of 50% like before.  50.5% (chance of house to win) is 1% more than 49.5% (player chance to win), so we call the house edge 1%.

Now what does that tell you, it means that the win and loss will be equal in the long run, and its the 1% that drains away your money.

If it were 50-50, you would probably end up breakeven in infinity.

If it were 50-50, you would probably definitely end up breakeven in infinity.

So what we need to analyze is the 1% house edge how much that drains us and what are our expected chances of beating that short term.

We've already figured out how much the house edge will cost us, it's 1%.

To figure out our chances of winning short term, we have to know exactly what "short term" means.  How many bets is the short term?  

If it's 1 bet, our chances of winning are 49.5%

As we increase the number of bets we have to make, the chances of winning will go down.

If it's infinte bets our chances are 0%


If the house edge is on our side, it's just the opposite.

[Barbut]

The first thing you need to know about how to win money with gambling consistently is that gambling shouldn’t be fun if you want to win! and developing a strategy is crucia also. Kenny Rogers used to say, “You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away.” You can never try to make up for a lost bet.

[RealBitcoin]

Commision and house edge are not the same.  House edge assumes the house is playing the game with you (Against you, really).  Commision refers to a fee the house charges in exchange for dealing a game.  The fee is usually directly affected by the amount bet, like a poker tournament that charges $1000 which goes to the prizepool plus $150 fee that they keep no matter what.  Some games , like Baccarat  have both.  If you Bet player, you are up against the house edge.  But you can also bet Banker, which give YOU the house edge, but for that they charge you a commission.

To make things easy to explain, lets assume we are playing a game against the house that only has two possible outcomes. Either  Lose 100 units or win 200 units, and the house wants to earn 1% of every unit bet.  There are two ways they can do this, by gaining an edge or by charging a commission:

If they charge a commission you could have a true 50% chance of either winning 200 units or losing 100.  However, whenever you won, you would have to pay the house a 2 unit fee.  (this is similar to the banker bet in baccarat)

If they don't charge a commission, they could make their money by changing the game so that the the player would win only 49.5% of the time, instead of 50% like before.  50.5% (chance of house to win) is 1% more than 49.5% (player chance to win), so we call the house edge 1%.

Manipulating the probability via house edge ,or manipulating the payout via comissions is the same thing.

Both affects the expectancy the same way. It's like putting an income tax on a lottery prize, it's hard enough to win the lottery, but by taxing the payout, you lower the expectancy even more.

If it were 50-50, you would probably definitely end up breakeven in infinity.

Not definitely, you can still have enough losses in a row to wipe out the balance.

Or you can still have enough wins in a row to become a billionaire. But most likely you end up 0.

We've already figured out how much the house edge will cost us, it's 1%.

To figure out our chances of winning short term, we have to know exactly what "short term" means.  How many bets is the short term?  

If it's 1 bet, our chances of winning are 49.5%

As we increase the number of bets we have to make, the chances of winning will go down.

If it's infinte bets our chances are 0%


If the house edge is on our side, it's just the opposite.

Ok you are right here.

[TwitchySeal]

Manipulating the probability via house edge ,or manipulating the payout via comissions is the same thing.

Both affects the expectancy the same way. It's like putting an income tax on a lottery prize, it's hard enough to win the lottery, but by taxing the payout, you lower the expectancy even more.

You're right about both having the same EV.

But they aren't the same. 

The difference is with the commission model, the player will win slightly more often, but each win will be slightly smaller than the House Edge model. 

Not definitely, you can still have enough losses in a row to wipe out the balance.

Or you can still have enough wins in a row to become a billionaire. But most likely you end up 0.

True!  I was not considering a limited bankroll.
My statement is only true if we have a infinite bankroll.

With a limited bankroll, there will always be some risk of ruin. 

[TwitchySeal]

You're right about both having the same EV.

But they aren't the same.  

The difference is with the commission model, the player will win slightly more often, but each win will be slightly smaller than the House Edge model.  

Technically they are, the payout and the probability is the same thing calculated under the EV.

If you consider these are the same.

Win 200% of Bet 49.5% of the time
Win 199.5% of Bet 50% of the time

Do you consider these the same?

Win 109.5% of Bet 90% of time
Win 1,000% your Bet 9.5% of time

They all have same expectation. ( -1% )


(Dont get me started on Taxes lol)

[ajun96]

Oh yeahh it can be profitable in the long run.... if you're lucky enough or have an infinite bankroll.

Otherwise i just think NO it can't be profitable.

but the fact is you can not always be lucky every gamble. if you have more luck of course you can make a gamble to profit long term. but that's all it is impossible to always lucky. so its can't be profitable for long term

[Erza]

Oh yeahh it can be profitable in the long run.... if you're lucky enough or have an infinite bankroll.

Otherwise i just think NO it can't be profitable.

but the fact is you can not always be lucky every gamble. if you have more luck of course you can make a gamble to profit long term. but that's all it is impossible to always lucky. so its can't be profitable for long term

Yes it is true thats why people use martingale strategy although you are not in luck but still you can win through this strategy but make sure your balance is enough to recover it. You dont even know that when you will run out of luck so I can suggest that you keep on gambling after you loss half of your winning profit of even quarter to it so although you lose you still profit somehow

[phreaky]

That cant happen in gambling. I think many people lose a lot of money with gambling and that is not good.
I think that more people realize to late that they lose a lot of money and that is not good. You always lose more money than you win money.

[teilwalL05]

That cant happen in gambling. I think many people lose a lot of money with gambling and that is not good.
I think that more people realize to late that they lose a lot of money and that is not good. You always lose more money than you win money.

Well you are redundant with your words! that is the clarity for gambling you can and you can't win or lose money because it is base on luck and you will never know when luck will hit you, that is absolutely because gambling is all about random you will have plenty of win sometime or plenty of losses!

[Hashminers]

Gambling can be profitable on a long term but you need a lot of luck if you ask me, and its the question if you succeed with it, most likely this will not happen because its all based on luck.
So I think its possible but only a few people will have the luck that is needed for it!

[teilwalL05]

Gambling can be profitable on a long term but you need a lot of luck if you ask me, and its the question if you succeed with it, most likely this will not happen because its all based on luck.
So I think its possible but only a few people will have the luck that is needed for it!

Yup! that is right, you can imagine a person with much luck in gambling there are people that is always winning because gambling is not all on losing you just need to try the other day if your lucky enough to win in it.

[blackmachinegun]

Oh yeahh it can be profitable in the long run.... if you're lucky enough or have an infinite bankroll.

Otherwise i just think NO it can't be profitable.

yeah Im agree gambling can be profitable in the long run. but if you have lucky EVERY DAY!
if you haven't it. you can go to paranormal to make your self be luck every day lol (not recomended)

[shanem]

Oh yeahh it can be profitable in the long run.... if you're lucky enough or have an infinite bankroll.

Otherwise i just think NO it can't be profitable.

yeah Im agree gambling can be profitable in the long run. but if you have lucky EVERY DAY!
if you haven't it. you can go to paranormal to make your self be luck every day lol (not recomended)

It is impossible to be lucky every day unless you can rig the gambling game. Even if you have an infinite bankroll, you will still losing a small amount in the long run if you play normally.

[praprata]

Gambling can be really profitable on a long term but mostly likely for most people this will not happen because gambling is luck and luck is not always with you.
I think it can be possible but only for the lucky lucky ones because its maybe 10 on 100 that have this luck and make a lot of profit on a long term.