QuintLeo
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March 29, 2016, 09:09:57 AM |
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People have finally wised up to the fact that the S7 is not going to achieve RoI unless you have VERY VERY cheap electric - and that has always been the case, and that fact just keeps getting worse and worse (unless the current lull in hashrate climb manages to last about 3 months LONGER than I currently expect).
I suspect Bitmain is having their current fire sale in the hope of getting their money back out of the BM1385 chips they've already bought before they become almost worthless due to next-gen miners blowing them out of the water - and I have some doubt that Bitmain was expecting Bitfury to go public on THEIR next-gen chip much less start pushing it to anyone OTHER than huge farms. I get the strong impression Bitmain's answer to the new bitFury chip hasn't even taped out yet, or taped out recently enough they aren't going to have a new miner available before the halfing - leaving them rather behind the curve on what should prove to be THE most important ASIC generation in Bitcoin mining history (other than perhaps the original generation gear).
There's also the BW.com/LKetc second-gen chip for them to worry about, the question of WHEN Innosilicon will release the A3 (which in theory could be literally ANY DAY NOW)....
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I'm no longer legendary just in my own mind! Like something I said? Donations gratefully accepted. LYLnTKvLefz9izJFUvEGQEZzSkz34b3N6U (Litecoin) 1GYbjMTPdCuV7dci3iCUiaRrcNuaiQrVYY (Bitcoin)
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dogie (OP)
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dogiecoin.com
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March 29, 2016, 09:19:08 AM |
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I suspect Bitmain is having their current fire sale in the hope of getting their money back out of the BM1385 chips they've already bought before they become almost worthless due to next-gen miners blowing them out of the water - and I have some doubt that Bitmain was expecting Bitfury to go public on THEIR next-gen chip much less start pushing it to anyone OTHER than huge farms. I get the strong impression Bitmain's answer to the new bitFury chip hasn't even taped out yet, or taped out recently enough they aren't going to have a new miner available before the halfing - leaving them rather behind the curve on what should prove to be THE most important ASIC generation in Bitcoin mining history (other than perhaps the original generation gear).
Pretty much none of this fits with previous Bitmain action or logic.
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sidehack
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Curmudgeonly hardware guy
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March 29, 2016, 01:15:33 PM |
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I know you like to make snappy retorts, but they're a lot more effective when you elaborate and actually explain the point.
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Finksy
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March 29, 2016, 01:50:17 PM |
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I know you like to make snappy retorts, but they're a lot more effective when you elaborate and actually explain the point.
Methinks he relishes in that time between single-sentence answers and annoyed condescending explanations to feel better than us peasants.
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leowonderful
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Bitcoin FTW!
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March 29, 2016, 02:06:30 PM |
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I suspect Bitmain is having their current fire sale in the hope of getting their money back out of the BM1385 chips they've already bought before they become almost worthless due to next-gen miners blowing them out of the water - and I have some doubt that Bitmain was expecting Bitfury to go public on THEIR next-gen chip much less start pushing it to anyone OTHER than huge farms. I get the strong impression Bitmain's answer to the new bitFury chip hasn't even taped out yet, or taped out recently enough they aren't going to have a new miner available before the halfing - leaving them rather behind the curve on what should prove to be THE most important ASIC generation in Bitcoin mining history (other than perhaps the original generation gear).
Pretty much none of this fits with previous Bitmain action or logic. I still agree with QuintLeo, the BM1385 chip has been possibly the worst chip Bitmain has ever developed besides the BM1382 for ROI + profit. S3s (BM1382) hardly profited with the difficulty rises even though the hop from BM1380 with more hashpower and efficiency was enormous. I knew this day was coming for bitmain, because there had to be a new chip coming out, and it just so happened to be before the halving. The only thing stopping Bitmain from using old S4 rackmounts and placing BM1385s on them and slapping on a "Antminer S8" sticker on is the fact that most people know: 1. the halving is coming 2. this gear is gonna be crap in 2 months. BM1385s were a great improvement and it had to have happened eventually, so hopefully we can move past this and get BM1385s over with after the halving.
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dogie (OP)
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dogiecoin.com
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March 29, 2016, 02:14:08 PM |
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I suspect Bitmain is having their current fire sale in the hope of getting their money back out of the BM1385 chips they've already bought before they become almost worthless due to next-gen miners blowing them out of the water - and I have some doubt that Bitmain was expecting Bitfury to go public on THEIR next-gen chip much less start pushing it to anyone OTHER than huge farms. I get the strong impression Bitmain's answer to the new bitFury chip hasn't even taped out yet, or taped out recently enough they aren't going to have a new miner available before the halfing - leaving them rather behind the curve on what should prove to be THE most important ASIC generation in Bitcoin mining history (other than perhaps the original generation gear).
Pretty much none of this fits with previous Bitmain action or logic. I still agree with QuintLeo, the BM1385 chip has been possibly the worst chip Bitmain has ever developed besides the BM1382 for ROI + profit. You're saying that from a miner's perspective, not Bitmain's perspective though. Your finances and success are not their finances and success.
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Finksy
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March 29, 2016, 02:16:43 PM |
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You're saying that from a miner's perspective, not Bitmain's perspective though. Your finances and success are not their finances and success.
Then as a result, their success with this chip has come at the expense of their customers' losses (read: anyone who bought Batch 1-7). Class acts indeed...
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leowonderful
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Bitcoin FTW!
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March 29, 2016, 02:23:55 PM |
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I suspect Bitmain is having their current fire sale in the hope of getting their money back out of the BM1385 chips they've already bought before they become almost worthless due to next-gen miners blowing them out of the water - and I have some doubt that Bitmain was expecting Bitfury to go public on THEIR next-gen chip much less start pushing it to anyone OTHER than huge farms. I get the strong impression Bitmain's answer to the new bitFury chip hasn't even taped out yet, or taped out recently enough they aren't going to have a new miner available before the halfing - leaving them rather behind the curve on what should prove to be THE most important ASIC generation in Bitcoin mining history (other than perhaps the original generation gear).
Pretty much none of this fits with previous Bitmain action or logic. I still agree with QuintLeo, the BM1385 chip has been possibly the worst chip Bitmain has ever developed besides the BM1382 for ROI + profit. You're saying that from a miner's perspective, not Bitmain's perspective though. Your finances and success are not their finances and success. True, the S3 was a bandwagon miner (people heard about the success of the S1)and it was possibly one of their bestsellers. S5 not as much, because the bandwagon died when people heard about the S3's fail. S7 seems to be another bandwagon miner as the roi is crap, but people are buying it up pretty fast. Overall the popularity of Bitmain miners has remained stable as people are leaving and hopping on the bandwagon at a equal speed.
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sidehack
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Curmudgeonly hardware guy
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March 29, 2016, 02:31:45 PM |
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The 1385 was actually a really good chip. The problem was the machine price. They were selling units at about $2k when cost was probably under $1k (including chip dev costs; easily under $400 in material costs). They could get away with it because they were the only ones selling at the time, so anyone buying had to buy from them. Same thing they did with the S4+ - it was a garbage machine with a price and efficiency about 6 months out of date, made with year-old chips they probably still had in boxes in the basement somewhere, but they sold out in a couple weeks because it was the only thing you could get if you wanted something. And then with the S7, when they realized they owned the market once again, we started seeing the models which were empirically worse than the original - fewer chips and higher clock, overall higher power consumption, lower reliability, higher operating cost and at about the same price as the original.
Blaming the BM1385 ASIC for the S7 sucking is inaccurate. Blaming Bitmain for building a miner that is unreliable (both in hardware and software; I gotta friggin' manually reboot half a dozen hosted S7 every time internet goes down for more than 30 seconds), and only capable of being run at the very top end of ASIC performance (therefore the worst efficiency, about 0.26J/GH on a chip capable of seeing 0.18J/GH if allowed), and then charging what everyone understood from the beginning was higher than breakeven cost for anyone paying more than a nickel for power, is what caused the S7 to suck. The BM1385 chip itself probably didn't cost any more to produce than the BM1382 (also a 28nm node), on the order of $1-2 per unit.
So basically, building a world-class chip with very braggable specs, then instead of utilizing those specs cheaping out on the hardware design as much as possible to ensure maximum profit for the manufacturer - both because the machine is as simple as possible to still operate and therefore cheaper to manufacture, and because with no core adjustability (and with the later batches, a stock overclock) the machine has a planned-obsolesence short finite viable lifetime.
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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March 29, 2016, 04:00:24 PM |
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You're saying that from a miner's perspective, not Bitmain's perspective though. Your finances and success are not their finances and success.
Then as a result, their success with this chip has come at the expense of their customers' losses (read: anyone who bought Batch 1-7). Class acts indeed... I made money on both my batch 1 and batch 2. But they still owe me compensation for the Batch 1 which they will never pay. my accounting on the batch 1 is this. I purchased the coins from coinbase so the cash basis was is what matters for those two purchases 1723 + 50 = 1773 for the batch 1 1485 + 50 = 1535 for the batch 2 I sold the batch 1 for 1400 loss of 373 but it mined during the up tick in coin price and earned 1.5 coins at 480 = 640 (I sold them at 480) so the batch 1 I complain about netted 200 plus usd. The batch 2 has been mining since October at free power it has earned 4.5 coins which are worth 1900 or so But it was how I handled the purchase of them. I purchased the coins from coinbase. now some would say if I buy and hold I would be better off. I say.. I bet a horse named s-7 miner and have more money now then before the bet. It is true if I bet the horse named buy n hold the payoff was better. But my choice did put me ahead. As my fiat is higher then if it just stayed in the bank. To the guy that did all it all mining his btc is lower. He lost out.
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jstefanop
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March 29, 2016, 04:21:11 PM |
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Is this a Bitmain thread :p ...so back on topic...wth is going on with Bitfury? They have added zero hash, and this chip is nowhere to be seen...which makes me think they are having major issues with the production version of the chip/immersion board.
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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March 29, 2016, 04:23:14 PM |
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Is this a Bitmain thread :p ...so back on topic...wth is going on with Bitfury? They have added zero hash, and this chip is nowhere to be seen...which makes me think they are having major issues with the production version of the chip/immersion board.
yes good point. the demos were nice chips then zip nada nothing. friedcat of asciminer had a good chip demo then poof nothing. i do hope bitfury comes up with a chip for us to use. send out some development chips
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sidehack
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Curmudgeonly hardware guy
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March 29, 2016, 04:28:49 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
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Gyrsur
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Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206
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March 29, 2016, 04:29:29 PM |
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leave they alone with their inner circles. they have their agenda.
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leowonderful
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Bitcoin FTW!
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March 29, 2016, 09:23:24 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
Bitfury has existed for quite a while now, going from ~100nm chips to now apparently 14-16nm. ASICMiner was a shaky thing to begin with, and as of now Bitfury is a serious possible competitior to a company like Bitmain. It's just so odd how there is nearly no data on these chips and no documentation. They might have even never been made.
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AleScamHole
Sr. Member
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Don't you looooooove how offensive my name sounds?
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March 29, 2016, 09:44:22 PM |
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i still stand by believing till i see otherwise they will do the same thing they always have last 2+ years (since their hardware initial sales gave them capital needed those years ago)
tell news btc places they support decentralization then make their new chips but come to the realization "holy shit, we can't sell these for a bit, their TOO GOOD" lets face it at the end of the day every single chip they sell works against them in overall hashrate of network and they know that so they will do it again. tell us their coming but not be able to pull the trigger for smaller guys and batches of chips, as per usual their just TOO GOOD ;\ their new chips, as always... this is just imo... but they keep doing it....
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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March 29, 2016, 10:03:33 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
Bitfury has existed for quite a while now, going from ~100nm chips to now apparently 14-16nm. ASICMiner was a shaky thing to begin with, and as of now Bitfury is a serious possible competitior to a company like Bitmain. It's just so odd how there is nearly no data on these chips and no documentation. They might have even never been made. we saw them demoed on the youtube videos. I would like to think they were real. so by never been made I would guess you mean never made in bulk.
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leowonderful
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March 29, 2016, 10:24:15 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
Bitfury has existed for quite a while now, going from ~100nm chips to now apparently 14-16nm. ASICMiner was a shaky thing to begin with, and as of now Bitfury is a serious possible competitior to a company like Bitmain. It's just so odd how there is nearly no data on these chips and no documentation. They might have even never been made. we saw them demoed on the youtube videos. I would like to think they were real. so by never been made I would guess you mean never made in bulk. yup, and def not sold, otherwise we'd be seeing a spike in hashrate and difficulty skyrocketing to infinity (of course the recent spikes could be these chips being turned off and on but I don't think that's it). These things will happen not now, but when the chips are actively sold and distributed. For now we mine and hope that these new chips will save us..
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alienesb
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March 29, 2016, 10:37:58 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
Bitfury has existed for quite a while now, going from ~100nm chips to now apparently 14-16nm. ASICMiner was a shaky thing to begin with, and as of now Bitfury is a serious possible competitior to a company like Bitmain. It's just so odd how there is nearly no data on these chips and no documentation. They might have even never been made. we saw them demoed on the youtube videos. I would like to think they were real. so by never been made I would guess you mean never made in bulk. yup, and def not sold, otherwise we'd be seeing a spike in hashrate and difficulty skyrocketing to infinity (of course the recent spikes could be these chips being turned off and on but I don't think that's it). These things will happen not now, but when the chips are actively sold and distributed. For now we mine and hope that these new chips will save us.. Something does seem amiss that we haven't seen the hash pop up for these. As far hoping... I'm not making a move until after the halving at this point. I mean what's the point if you have to pay for electricity?
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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March 29, 2016, 10:56:58 PM |
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I highly doubt Bitfury will disappear for anything like the reasons ASICMiner vanished.
Also, yeah dev chips would be super. Or even just some documentation.
Bitfury has existed for quite a while now, going from ~100nm chips to now apparently 14-16nm. ASICMiner was a shaky thing to begin with, and as of now Bitfury is a serious possible competitior to a company like Bitmain. It's just so odd how there is nearly no data on these chips and no documentation. They might have even never been made. we saw them demoed on the youtube videos. I would like to think they were real. so by never been made I would guess you mean never made in bulk. yup, and def not sold, otherwise we'd be seeing a spike in hashrate and difficulty skyrocketing to infinity (of course the recent spikes could be these chips being turned off and on but I don't think that's it). These things will happen not now, but when the chips are actively sold and distributed. For now we mine and hope that these new chips will save us.. Something does seem amiss that we haven't seen the hash pop up for these. As far hoping... I'm not making a move until after the halving at this point. I mean what's the point if you have to pay for electricity? The game has moved to low power cost is king. And effiencent gear is prince.
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