Long term OIL

[Barnabe]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

By 2020 or 2025, scientists will be able to create artificial or synthetic crude oil from cheap raw materials. So natural crude won't last up to 2030.

What's the purpose of creating synthetic crude oil, if you can make the products which are further processed from oil directly? For example, gasoline can be produced from coal (the Bergius process)...

Though it hasn't been economical so far (viable only in the case of a long-lasting shortage in oil supplies)

There might be a geostrategic interest. Europe for instance has no oil exploration. They are already doing bio-fuel, but it's not very financially interesting. A break though would allow them not to be dependent on foreign oil anymore. Brazil has strongly developed ethanol as fuel for most vehicles and they have mostly benefit from doing so (encouraging national productions, less imports)

[1715579455]

1715579455

[jaysabi]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

By 2020 or 2025, scientists will be able to create artificial or synthetic crude oil from cheap raw materials. So natural crude won't last up to 2030.

Using what process? Oil forms over millions of years of intense pressure, so even if the raw materials to make synthetic oil is cheap, the process likely is not to be. I doubt very much synthetic oil ever playing a major role in the energy economy.

[deisik]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

By 2020 or 2025, scientists will be able to create artificial or synthetic crude oil from cheap raw materials. So natural crude won't last up to 2030.

What's the purpose of creating synthetic crude oil, if you can make the products which are further processed from oil directly? For example, gasoline can be produced from coal (the Bergius process)...

Though it hasn't been economical so far (viable only in the case of a long-lasting shortage in oil supplies)

There might be a geostrategic interest. Europe for instance has no oil exploration. They are already doing bio-fuel, but it's not very financially interesting. A break though would allow them not to be dependent on foreign oil anymore. Brazil has strongly developed ethanol as fuel for most vehicles and they have mostly benefit from doing so (encouraging national productions, less imports)

Ultimately, all geostrategic interests in the field of energetics boil down to producing energy out of nothing, otherwise known as vacuum energy, lol...

If you have an unlimited source of energy you can potentially create anything

[jaysabi]

NPR's economics podcast, Planet Money, is doing a 5-part series on oil production, demand, supply, and what determines the price. Their second podcast on what determines the price of oil is good. They cover the role of speculators in the market and all the middlemen in the oil industry and how they affect oil futures. About a 20 minute listen.

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/08/12/489806822/oil-2-the-price-of-oil

[jaysabi]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/earthquake-shakes-swath-of-midwest-from-missouri-to-oklahoma-1472906357

Yesterday's earthquake in Oklahoma is being linked to the disposal of waste water underground related to gas and oil drilling. 5.6 isn't very strong, but it's also not a good thing to be affecting the environment this way. I wonder what long term consequences we'll find for the disposal of all of these chemicals in the future.

[jaysabi]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/earthquake-shakes-swath-of-midwest-from-missouri-to-oklahoma-1472906357

Yesterday's earthquake in Oklahoma is being linked to the disposal of waste water underground related to gas and oil drilling. 5.6 isn't very strong, but it's also not a good thing to be affecting the environment this way. I wonder what long term consequences we'll find for the disposal of all of these chemicals in the future.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/only-a-fraction-of-oklahomas-disposal-wells-shut-down-after-quake/2016/09/04/f5e62906-72d5-11e6-be4f-3f42f2e5a49e_story.html

And now a very tiny fraction of wells are being shut down. Seems regulators don't know what they want to do. They can't be seen doing nothing, so they do something for the sake of doing anything, even though this is unlikely to address the issue. I also suppose there's too much special interest money at stake for regulators to do what is right for the environment.

[coin_gambler]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

thats why im not putting money into oil and im more concentrating only on bitcoins because i have a feeling that it will make me money

[Gastotade]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

thats why im not putting money into oil and im more concentrating only on bitcoins because i have a feeling that it will make me money

The bitcoin is more profitable than investing in the oil or other commodities in the last few years. There is over supply of commodities.

[deisik]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

thats why im not putting money into oil and im more concentrating only on bitcoins because i have a feeling that it will make me money

The bitcoin is more profitable than investing in the oil or other commodities in the last few years. There is over supply of commodities.

You don't invest in oil like you invest in Bitcoin, i.e. you don't buy physical barrels of oil like you buy bitcoins or might buy gold. Hence, substituting oil for gold was an evident bloomer on your part. This is not the Gold vs Bitcoin thread. When talking about investing in oil, people typically mean buying stock of oil producing and oil processing companies. This sets apart investing from trading, which also includes buying shares (for the purpose of reselling them later) but is mainly done in derivatives markets through buying and selling oil futures and options for both oil and oil companies stock. Needless to say that the latter has even less in common with buying oil in the literal sense of the phrase. So, the next time you are going to post some drivel, think before posting what you post and where you post it...

And as a bonus, you can earn profits in oversupplied markets with the same ease (or difficulty, for that matter) as in undersupplied markets

[Shiroslullaby]

Yeah, I feel like unless you really know what you are doing, you are better off avoiding fossil fuel commodities right now.
Although you may be able to make some money, since prices are still rising slightly.
People in the US just can't help themselves. The only reason they conserve is because of high prices.
As soon as the price is reasonable again, demand shoots through the roof.

[Vaculin]

Yeah, I feel like unless you really know what you are doing, you are better off avoiding fossil fuel commodities right now.
Although you may be able to make some money, since prices are still rising slightly.
People in the US just can't help themselves. The only reason they conserve is because of high prices.
As soon as the price is reasonable again, demand shoots through the roof.

The production of the oil is controlled by a few big suppliers. They can manipulate the price easily. So if you do not have the inside informaiton, it is better to avoid.

[botany]

Yeah, I feel like unless you really know what you are doing, you are better off avoiding fossil fuel commodities right now.
Although you may be able to make some money, since prices are still rising slightly.
People in the US just can't help themselves. The only reason they conserve is because of high prices.
As soon as the price is reasonable again, demand shoots through the roof.

The production of the oil is controlled by a few big suppliers. They can manipulate the price easily. So if you do not have the inside informaiton, it is better to avoid.

Right now, OPEC (which is the biggest band of oil suppliers) don't really have consensus on cutting production. That is the only way they can control price. If they cut production, non-OPEC countries like the US will be the biggest beneficiaries.

[yayayo]

Right now, OPEC (which is the biggest band of oil suppliers) don't really have consensus on cutting production. That is the only way they can control price. If they cut production, non-OPEC countries like the US will be the biggest beneficiaries.

But Russia, Venezuela and Iran are approaching a consensus. Since the beginning of this year the oil price has already risen more than 50%. It's also likely that the coming winter will be much colder than the previous one, which was significantly outside of the normal temperature range. That will increase demand.

I'm not writing this, because I think it's a good idea to invest in oil. In my opinion, oil is too political and price changes are often triggered by political world events. So you may be lucky in one case and loose out of the blue in another occasion. However the risk profile is certainly much better than it was in 2011-2014, even though I don't expect oil to rise to new highs anytime soon - the overall economy is not in a position to support such a move.

Regardless, oil will be around another few decades, being slowly replaced by greener technologies along the road.

ya.ya.yo!

[ivanst776]

Right now, OPEC (which is the biggest band of oil suppliers) don't really have consensus on cutting production. That is the only way they can control price. If they cut production, non-OPEC countries like the US will be the biggest beneficiaries.

I'm not writing this, because I think it's a good idea to invest in oil. In my opinion, oil is too political and price changes are often triggered by political world events. So you may be lucky in one case and loose out of the blue in another occasion. However the risk profile is certainly much better than it was in 2011-2014, even though I don't expect oil to rise to new highs anytime soon - the overall economy is not in a position to support such a move.

Regardless, oil will be around another few decades, being slowly replaced by greener technologies along the road.

ya.ya.yo!

The price in the region where I live the price changes very often, and when the price increases worldwide we are first who increase the price, but when the price globally gets lowered we are the last one who decrease the price.

Based on this I think is a good investment very but risky too, investing in bitcoin is safer and risky as any other investment.

Even the oil can sound out-dated most of the cars will operate through oil even though the electric cars are trendy now and are getting a good support from many countries.

[STT]

What OPEC really needs is for USA, now one of the worlds largest producers and bigger then Saudi Arabia I think and also Russia to join their ranks.   Neither will do it, recent news was that Russian would agree not to increase their production.    Unless demand grows alot that grand agreement doesnt alter much.     There is a doubt over world growth, so not much speculation oil will rise from here consistently

Great thing about capitalism is that it ultimately increases efficiency and benefits many sections of society not just the richest or asset owners.    That harsh element they have to deal with, many big producers need investment and to refine with less cost.   Most lost of all is Venezuela and possibly some rigs in war zones, when they free innovation they'll do better eventually

[jaysabi]

The US joining OPEC is counter to its foreign policy objectives in the Middle East, and would require a large degree of centralized planning in the oil market domestically. Those are just two of the simplest reasons the US will never join OPEC.

[Gastotade]

The US joining OPEC is counter to its foreign policy objectives in the Middle East, and would require a large degree of centralized planning in the oil market domestically. Those are just two of the simplest reasons the US will never join OPEC.

The US is the big user of the oil. So it wants the OPEC not to freeze the oil production. There is a rumour that OPEC will reduce the output.

[bryant.coleman]

The US joining OPEC is counter to its foreign policy objectives in the Middle East, and would require a large degree of centralized planning in the oil market domestically. Those are just two of the simplest reasons the US will never join OPEC.

The US is a direct rival of the OPEC cartel, and things will remain like that for the next 100 years. For starters, the oil production in the US is mostly controlled by private shale oil drillers, who are not dependent upon the government. This is different from the situation in OPEC nations, where the oil companies are nationalized. OPEC nations can cut their oil production. But the US government won't be able to reduce the American oil output, as the frackers are not required to follow the orders from the authorities.

[deisik]

The US joining OPEC is counter to its foreign policy objectives in the Middle East, and would require a large degree of centralized planning in the oil market domestically. Those are just two of the simplest reasons the US will never join OPEC.

The US is a direct rival of the OPEC cartel, and things will remain like that for the next 100 years. For starters, the oil production in the US is mostly controlled by private shale oil drillers, who are not dependent upon the government. This is different from the situation in OPEC nations, where the oil companies are nationalized. OPEC nations can cut their oil production. But the US government won't be able to reduce the American oil output, as the frackers are not required to follow the orders from the authorities.

Do you actually have no doubts that the authorities wouldn't find a way to get frackers out of business if they really wanted to? If you don't have any after all, think about protective tariffs that are enacted with the purpose of protecting this or that domestic industry. If it works one way, why shouldn't it also work in reverse? In fact, no one is going to issue orders for the sake of banning or limiting fracking oil out of hand, they could just tax it up to the hilt...

Though gold had already been banned directly once upon a time (which you seem to have forgotten)

[STT]

They definitely could control oil and gas production if they wanted to in the USA, I dont think they ever should or that it would be of benefit financially to the wider population.   I worry about western governments having so much debt they become politically liable to do what foreign powers want them to, thats not unprecedented.

We have central banking in most of the worlds richest countries, it could spread to other parts of the economy.   I hope OPEC is coming to an end, Saudi Arabia has big population growth with a majority under 25 so should see energy usage grow too.   I wont say never will it dominate again either.