Long term OIL

[botany]

The ballistic missile test by Iran is again resulting in uncertainty in oil prices. The Trump administration has imposed some sanctions on Iranian entities. Expect crude prices to go further north.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/oil-edges-up-as-us-could-be-set-to-issue-new-iran-sanctions.html

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[Sithara007]

The ballistic missile test by Iran is again resulting in uncertainty in oil prices. The Trump administration has imposed some sanctions on Iranian entities. Expect crude prices to go further north.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/oil-edges-up-as-us-could-be-set-to-issue-new-iran-sanctions.html

Trump should make sure that the sanctions does not result in a decline in the Iranian crude production. Else it will affect the Americans more than anyone, since they are among the top importers of crude oil.

[deisik]

The ballistic missile test by Iran is again resulting in uncertainty in oil prices. The Trump administration has imposed some sanctions on Iranian entities. Expect crude prices to go further north.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/oil-edges-up-as-us-could-be-set-to-issue-new-iran-sanctions.html

Trump should make sure that the sanctions does not result in a decline in the Iranian crude production. Else it will affect the Americans more than anyone, since they are among the top importers of crude oil.

China doesn't seem to care about any American sanctions imposed on Iran anyway. They had been buying Iranian oil when the latter was sanctioned up to the hilt. I don't think they are going to change their stance any time soon, especially if we take into account the stuff that (Trump is smoking) Trump is spouting out (in what concerns China). On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

[Sithara007]

On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

This is the first time I am hearing about it. How can Iran smuggle oil to Russia, when dozens of American military satellites are scanning every square inch of the Russo-Iranian border? Also, I don't think that Russia will take the risk of dishonoring the UN sanctions.

[deisik]

On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

This is the first time I am hearing about it. How can Iran smuggle oil to Russia, when dozens of American military satellites are scanning every square inch of the Russo-Iranian border? Also, I don't think that Russia will take the risk of dishonoring the UN sanctions

If I'm not mistaken there are no such sanctions

Provided you don't consider the US economic sanctions and oil embargo (as well as the EU's) as the same that UN imposes (the UN sanctions mostly prohibit selling of weapons to Iran). So there is no such issue as Iran smuggling oil to Russia since the latter could just buy the Iranian oil as it liked and then resell to whoever might want to buy it. These rumors are basically based on the increase in the official oil production of Russia which shouldn't have been there (and expected decrease after these sanctions had been lifted)

[fr4nkthetank]

Seriously guys, how can anyone imagine a near future without electric transportation is beyond me.  Especially in china, in crowded cities, in polluted areas.  It might be too soon, but self-driving cars mean one thing - you don't need to own it.  You don't need to keep it at home either.  It can come get you.  By itself.  And go charge.  By itself.  Imagine no traffic lights.  Because self driving cars dont need traffic lights.  the whole eco-system of the city would be transformed.  The air would be much cleaner, etc.  Except I suppose for all those coal plants they will build to recharge the cars lol.

edit:  and oil demand would fall and tumble, and the middle east will return to poverty in a generation.

[tyz]

The oil imports of the USA have declined strongly over the last past years because the domestic oil productions increased massively due to fracking. Therefore the States are not longer dependent from oil imports than it was before fracking starts. You can also see this in official figures published on https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports

The ballistic missile test by Iran is again resulting in uncertainty in oil prices. The Trump administration has imposed some sanctions on Iranian entities. Expect crude prices to go further north.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/oil-edges-up-as-us-could-be-set-to-issue-new-iran-sanctions.html

Trump should make sure that the sanctions does not result in a decline in the Iranian crude production. Else it will affect the Americans more than anyone, since they are among the top importers of crude oil.

[STT]

USA is large enough to join OPEC if it wanted.  Ideally no import of oil would be required, its possible but some work is required not just more production

On the other hand, how good is natural gas for small passenger cars?

Wouldn't it require too much volume for the same distance compared to gasoline?

The gas is liquefied. I own a car that works off camping gas, natural gas would burn as cleanly as a kitchen cooker pretty much.   The fumes are mostly water.    Yes it is less efficient then petrol in pure energy for weight however with technology it can be near equivalent.  The reason for this is petrol is an unstable explosive gas as used by car engines but the cooking gas is very stable which allows the engine itself to use greater compression in each cylinder and gain more power.

Not enough research has been done but I have no doubt USA should be using natural gas for its cars.   Enough energy is available domestically to power every device and car in USA for 50 years with no oil used, every barrel can go abroad.   Of course Im talking about alot of technology and conversion required there but if people wanted it could be done.  USA would dominate in oil production with no need itself, right now USA is weak with trade deficits in many industries.
  I believe Saudi Arabia is increasing its use of solar power, which is a correct path for them to develop also

https://t.co/uomvIqmDXJ

[jaysabi]

It's not quite that bad. There's only one natural gas capable car available in the US I'm aware of, the Honda Civic NGV, but the range is 220 miles, which is about 350 km, more than double the range you listed. Natural gas isn't very practical for the US for consumer cars, but does make an excellent alternative for fleet vehicles and heavy duty trucking, where most of the application is currently focused.

The American cities are not as crowded as the Chinese and Indian ones. So naturally, the atmospheric pollution is not that bad. And also, a lot of Americans can afford the Tesla Model S or the Chevrolet Bolt. They are even better than the Honda Civic NGV in combating pollution.

Most populous American cities are located either on the oceanic coast (e.g. LA, SF, NY) or on the coast of big lakes (e.g. Chicago) while in India and China the most polluted cities (their capitals) are strictly continental. I guess this has much more influence on pollution than the number of cars as such. Further, I don't think that NY is less crowded overall than, say, Delhi, and it certainly has more cars. On the other hand, how many Americans can really afford electric cars?

They still seem to be pretty much a toy in the hands of the rich and superrich

There are several electric cars in the US market that are aimed at the mass market (as opposed to the super rich). Tesla's Model 3 is the most well-known. Chevy has a the Bolt, which has a longer range than the Model 3, and it even beat them to market. The Model 3 is supposed to start production this month. The Bolt is already available. It has a range around 240 miles and a price tag around $35,000, which puts it in the price range of a good deal of buyers. Nissan also has an all electric offering, though I don't know much about that one other than it exists. 

[jaysabi]

The ballistic missile test by Iran is again resulting in uncertainty in oil prices. The Trump administration has imposed some sanctions on Iranian entities. Expect crude prices to go further north.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/oil-edges-up-as-us-could-be-set-to-issue-new-iran-sanctions.html

Trump should make sure that the sanctions does not result in a decline in the Iranian crude production. Else it will affect the Americans more than anyone, since they are among the top importers of crude oil.

It wouldn't have that much of an impact. There is a lot of shale production capability sitting idle in the US, so if Iranian oil was taken out and prices rose, it would put some of that US capacity back to work, and the prices would come down again. I also suspect that Iranian reductions would cause other OPEC producers to seize the opportunity to increase production, since they all only begrudgingly agrees to a superficial cut anyway. Long story short, I wouldn't expect anything Iran does with oil to have a big and lasting effect.

[Sithara007]

The oil imports of the USA have declined strongly over the last past years because the domestic oil productions increased massively due to fracking. Therefore the States are not longer dependent from oil imports than it was before fracking starts. You can also see this in official figures published on https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports

The oil imports may be declining, but you should remember that the US is till getting almost one-fourth of its oil from abroad. And that is a huge amount. The only way for the US to become 100% self-sufficient in oil is to allow drilling in the Gates of the Arctic National Park and the other protected areas.

[d5000]

Seriously guys, how can anyone imagine a near future without electric transportation is beyond me.  Especially in china, in crowded cities, in polluted areas. [...]
edit:  and oil demand would fall and tumble, and the middle east will return to poverty in a generation.

I agree with your first statement - I also expect electric cars to boom in 10-20 years from now - but not with the second. Oil is becoming increasingly difficult to extract / explore new oilfields and that has already impacted in the actual price - we wouldn't talk about "fracking" without that problem. And oil has a lot of more applications than only to be used as fuel (above all, plastics) - and in aviation oil will reign a lot of more time than in the automobile industry.

So my guess is that while there may be retracements like in the past years, oil actually will be a long-term bull market - the question is only how steep the price increase will be.

(Anybody liking to short BitOIL at Bitshares? )

[deisik]

Seriously guys, how can anyone imagine a near future without electric transportation is beyond me.  Especially in china, in crowded cities, in polluted areas. [...]
edit:  and oil demand would fall and tumble, and the middle east will return to poverty in a generation.

I agree with your first statement - I also expect electric cars to boom in 10-20 years from now - but not with the second. Oil is becoming increasingly difficult to extract / explore new oilfields and that has already impacted in the actual price - we wouldn't talk about "fracking" without that problem. And oil has a lot of more applications than only to be used as fuel (above all, plastics) - and in aviation oil will reign a lot of more time than in the automobile industry.

So my guess is that while there may be retracements like in the past years, oil actually will be a long-term bull market - the question is only how steep the price increase will be

And when will it happen exactly?

Unless you provide a timeline, this is no more than idle talk. If things really were as you paint them, why would OPEC ever want to restrict production? If oil prices were really set to grow, then they would most certainly expand production, not limit it. There is plenty of oil, and with technologies advancing oil producers will be able to extract more with less as it happened in "the past years"

[criptix]

Seriously guys, how can anyone imagine a near future without electric transportation is beyond me.  Especially in china, in crowded cities, in polluted areas. [...]
edit:  and oil demand would fall and tumble, and the middle east will return to poverty in a generation.

I agree with your first statement - I also expect electric cars to boom in 10-20 years from now - but not with the second. Oil is becoming increasingly difficult to extract / explore new oilfields and that has already impacted in the actual price - we wouldn't talk about "fracking" without that problem. And oil has a lot of more applications than only to be used as fuel (above all, plastics) - and in aviation oil will reign a lot of more time than in the automobile industry.

So my guess is that while there may be retracements like in the past years, oil actually will be a long-term bull market - the question is only how steep the price increase will be

And when will it happen exactly?

Unless you provide a timeline, this is no more than idle talk. If things really were as you paint them, why would OPEC ever want to restrict production? If oil prices were really set to grow, then they would most certainly expand production, not limit it. There is plenty of oil, and with technologies advancing oil producers will be able to extract more with less as it happened in "the past years"

No the time for easy to extract oil is almost over.
In the past years we had 120$/barrel, deep sea oil, fracking and shale oil which had a positive profit margin above 60$/barrel (compare easy oil 1-10$/barrel).

Right now opec is reducing oil production to get a ~ 55$/barrel price and this is just enough to take the US frackers in a negative profit margin.

At the moment i think we might actually see lower oil price in the coming years if trump really goes forward with US energy (oil) independence.

As of 2015 the US net imports of petroleum was 4,71 mmb/d and around 80% of it was crude oil.
So basically the US imports were around 4 mmb/d crude oil.

As of october 2016 the world crude oil production equaled to 80 mmb/d.
That means the world demand for crude oil would shrink by 5% alone because the US wont import crude oil anymore.

Saudia Arabia/gulf states have trillions invested in the US - part of it in the oil industry so there loss wont be that much.
Russia on the other hand will probaly weaken alot by crumbling oil and gas prices.

[jaysabi]

The oil imports of the USA have declined strongly over the last past years because the domestic oil productions increased massively due to fracking. Therefore the States are not longer dependent from oil imports than it was before fracking starts. You can also see this in official figures published on https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports

The oil imports may be declining, but you should remember that the US is till getting almost one-fourth of its oil from abroad. And that is a huge amount. The only way for the US to become 100% self-sufficient in oil is to allow drilling in the Gates of the Arctic National Park and the other protected areas.

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

[jaysabi]

On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

This is the first time I am hearing about it. How can Iran smuggle oil to Russia, when dozens of American military satellites are scanning every square inch of the Russo-Iranian border? Also, I don't think that Russia will take the risk of dishonoring the UN sanctions.

I would imagine Iran moves their oil via ships. The largest importers of Iranian oil are China (22%), Japan (14%), India (13%), and the combined EU (18%) with Italy and Spain comprising the largest there, followed by, to a much smaller extent, France, Germany, and the UK. This information was from 2011, though. Plenty could have changed since then, but I would generally expect the ratios to be in the same ballpark. Just because the US slaps sanctions on Iran doesn't mean everyone else is going to follow. Each country is going to pursue its own foreign policy as it sees it to be in its best interest.

[STT]

Right now opec is reducing oil production to get a ~ 55$/barrel price and this is just enough to take the US frackers in a negative profit margin.

Alongside the oil price drop, frackers have been dropping their costs also so I've read.   It may be closer to 40 dollars a barrel for a higher percentage then the original fall.

Large amounts of oil are moved by sea to China hence its moves to secure terrority and a secure ship lane through the south China sea

[criptix]

Right now opec is reducing oil production to get a ~ 55$/barrel price and this is just enough to take the US frackers in a negative profit margin.

Alongside the oil price drop, frackers have been dropping their costs also so I've read.   It may be closer to 40 dollars a barrel for a higher percentage then the original fall.

I agree. In some parts of the US the profit margin is 40$ upwards, but the average in 2016 was around 60$.
 
That was the direct reason why last year 2015-2016 the oil rig count in the US dropped by ~500 (if i remember correctly).

[botany]

On the other hand, Russia was rumored to have been secretly buying Iranian oil previously and then reselling it as their own to European countries. Why couldn't they do it all over again?

After all, the US has no access to the Caspian Sea to check that trade (unlike the Persian Gulf)

This is the first time I am hearing about it. How can Iran smuggle oil to Russia, when dozens of American military satellites are scanning every square inch of the Russo-Iranian border? Also, I don't think that Russia will take the risk of dishonoring the UN sanctions.

I would imagine Iran moves their oil via ships. The largest importers of Iranian oil are China (22%), Japan (14%), India (13%), and the combined EU (18%) with Italy and Spain comprising the largest there, followed by, to a much smaller extent, France, Germany, and the UK. This information was from 2011, though. Plenty could have changed since then, but I would generally expect the ratios to be in the same ballpark. Just because the US slaps sanctions on Iran doesn't mean everyone else is going to follow. Each country is going to pursue its own foreign policy as it sees it to be in its best interest.

Yup it will be through ships. What the importing countries have to avoid is any linkage to US payment systems. If that does happen, the money is likely to be frozen. As long as you deal through EUR and through designated banks, you should be okay.

[Sithara007]

That's not the only way. The far better option is continuing to develop renewable energy so that nobody has to give a damn about oil anymore. There's no reason to drill in any protected area. We're not that hard up for oil. And once we're off it, or we've severely reduced our need, we can let the rest of the world wallow in in the misery of having a foreign policy designed around securing oil from the Middle East or elsewhere.

We've been trying to develop the renewable energy alternatives for the past many decades and there has been hardly any success. And I don't think that it will happen in the near future as well. So it is important to find other viable resources of crude oil.