s1ng
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Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
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June 12, 2014, 07:25:30 AM |
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i'm sorry..
but can you explain what the chart mean ??
Is it worth to keep BTC for next 10 years ??
thanks for advance
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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whitslack (OP)
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June 12, 2014, 07:28:57 AM |
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i'm sorry..
but can you explain what the chart mean ??
The chart shows the number of bitcoins in existence and the instantaneous rate of monetary (supply) inflation as functions of time. Is it worth to keep BTC for next 10 years ??
No one can possibly know the answer to that question, but everyone I've talked to agrees that, in 10 years, bitcoins will either be worth nothing or a whole heck of a lot more than they're worth now. |
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Ashbite
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June 13, 2014, 08:25:38 AM |
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i'm sorry..
but can you explain what the chart mean ??
The chart shows the number of bitcoins in existence and the instantaneous rate of monetary (supply) inflation as functions of time. Is it worth to keep BTC for next 10 years ??
No one can possibly know the answer to that question, but everyone I've talked to agrees that, in 10 years, bitcoins will either be worth nothing or a whole heck of a lot more than they're worth now. Well that is one thing we all hope, bitcoin sky rocket. There are so many factors in play that we cant decide the course. |
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painlord2k
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June 29, 2014, 04:42:35 PM
Last edit: July 11, 2014, 04:08:35 PM by painlord2k |
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I made new, improved, more detailed, charts of Bitcoin vs USD inflation. Instead of a point every month I plotted a weekly chart (found a CSV for M1 and took the daily BTC numbers from Blockchain.info CSV) Interesting we can find easily the daily stock of BTC but can find only a weekly M1 for USD. This is the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml#The formula are: E4=(B4-B3)/B3 F4=(C4-C3)/C3 G4=F4-E4 N4=(C4-C3)*52/C3 Of interest, is tab 2013; it show the Annual Bitcoin Inflation (red), diff with USD M1 Inflation (blue) BTC Weekly trend (Yellow), M1 Inflation (green). When I made the old chart I had the data just for february. It shown a big spike in M1 USD inflation but I didn't mind of it because I believed it was an aberration of monthly data. Now, doing it with weekly up to June data, the spike in M1 inflation is confirmed. The Fed could be tapering the QE, but it is printing like hell. The Red and Green lines are about to cross. When it happen, the M1 will inflate faster than BTC stock and people saving in USD will be bleeding compared to BTC even if there is no increased adoption of BTC. I had think we would not be there before the next halving. But I didn't considered the Yellen factor (the increase of M1 inflation start after Bernanke step down).     |
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Possum577
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July 15, 2014, 10:29:28 PM |
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Permission given to use and reproduce freely. What good are these charts without rationale, data, sources? Why do I care about these charts? |
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LMGTFY
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July 22, 2014, 04:53:16 PM |
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What good are these charts without rationale, data, sources?
Why do I care about these charts?
That's a fair point - I guess most of us take it for granted that people will know this stuff and that a visual representation will be obviously helpful. Anyway, from the top... The rationale is that BTC are generated at a fairly constant rate (every time a block is found by a miner, roughly every 10 minutes), but that the number of BTC generated is reduced periodically - every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. When Bitcoin was first released miners were rewarded 50 BTC with every block they found. That changed towards the end of 2012, with a reduction down to 25 BTC. Right now I'd expect the next change - to 12.5 BTC - to occur in late 2016, but since we can follow the block count, we'll know as time goes on whether that's a bad guess or not. (Rather than worry about dates, simply check the block count as it approaches 420,000). Whether that's useful or not is up for debate! Instinctively I think it is, because I think that the rate of increase of supply of BTC will affect the price. But that's just my opinion. If nothing else, these charts show visually what several dense and text-heavy wiki pages say - and pictures are worth a thousand words  |
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thepowerx
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July 23, 2014, 07:32:33 AM |
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what is it based on?
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Sheldor333
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July 25, 2014, 01:12:41 PM |
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This is certainly an advantage of Bitcoin over fiat currencies, surely a great one to exploit in helping people adopt it more easily.
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yucca
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July 25, 2014, 04:50:53 PM |
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TNBS
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Activity: 13
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July 25, 2014, 06:29:13 PM |
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I don't understand why there are so many comments stating "useful graph", no offense but this graph is highly inaccurate. Taking a look at only one of your windows, you state that block 210k would of been at the start of 2013; actually the block 214563 marked the beginning. You estimate 420,000 at the start of 2017; when comparing the growth between now and the block in 2013, we should be at roughly 450k (my calculations were roughly 449534). Being off 10,000 blocks here and 30,000 blocks there might not seem like much to you, but it means a world of difference when this is potentially our future lifeline (at least influencing it). Thank you for your efforts to help the community, I do not mean to point out your errors in an aggressive manor; I hope you don't see it this way. I just advise people to carefully evaluate any data when making important decisions, especially this data.
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painlord2k
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July 26, 2014, 09:51:32 PM |
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My charts, not the original in OP, show the real deal.
IMHO, the difference between the theoretical inflation and the actual inflation are not very large: 10-20% more is not too much.
The difference, now, it is around 2% year: 11-12% instead of 10%.
As the hashing power increase steadily inflation will be higher than the design but, in exchange, we obtain a larger hashrate securing the blockchain.
And higher inflation now just bring the next halving earlier.
At 10% more inflation is around 10% more hashrate every two weeks and a month earlier halving every year.
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gambian-
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Activity: 28
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July 28, 2014, 12:36:38 AM |
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i'm sorry..
but can you explain what the chart mean ??
The chart shows the number of bitcoins in existence and the instantaneous rate of monetary (supply) inflation as functions of time. Is it worth to keep BTC for next 10 years ??
No one can possibly know the answer to that question, but everyone I've talked to agrees that, in 10 years, bitcoins will either be worth nothing or a whole heck of a lot more than they're worth now. depends on how well technology for it develops Has a long way as it needs to be capable to use by the average joe for it to boom |
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Possum577
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July 31, 2014, 04:07:45 PM |
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Inflation is not the same as value.
It seems like a lot of people are interpreting the rise in BTC inflation as a rise in price or value and therefore an indicator of holding BTC as a long term investment. Inflation means that BTC will be come less valuable as the monetary base increases.
Am I missing something here?
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whitslack (OP)
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July 31, 2014, 04:17:21 PM |
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Inflation is not the same as value.
It seems like a lot of people are interpreting the rise in BTC inflation as a rise in price or value and therefore an indicator of holding BTC as a long term investment. Inflation means that BTC will be come less valuable as the monetary base increases.
Am I missing something here?
The rate of Bitcoin monetary inflation is not increasing (and never will), so it appears you are indeed missing something. |
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montello
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August 11, 2014, 02:07:40 PM |
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Permission given to use and reproduce freely. A very convincing write up for the technical mind. |
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abora
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August 11, 2014, 03:15:26 PM |
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Permission given to use and reproduce freely. Good idea for the mathematically inclined minds |
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bernard75
Legendary
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Activity: 1316
Merit: 1003
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August 13, 2014, 02:45:39 PM |
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You mean logically challenged? |
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Vortex20000
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August 14, 2014, 02:01:19 PM |
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Thank you for the useful chart.
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Mirdude
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August 19, 2014, 10:11:00 PM |
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Useful, may I know where you've sourced your data from?
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painlord2k
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August 19, 2014, 10:45:41 PM |
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If you are asking about the OP charts, they are derived from the protocol rules.
50 btc reward every block until the 210.000, then halve the reward; other 210.000 blocks then halve it again, until the reward is smaller than 1 Satoshi then no more reward.
Every block is discovered after 10 minutes (statistically).
If you are asking about my chart's data the links are in the first tab headers.
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