Smoothie and cypherdoc

[smoothie]

I just remembered I took that day off (17th) thinking it was the weekend (saturday).

Yes my whole time frame is off.

You are correct (i believe) on the time there (no not in minutes).

My mistake on the hours calculation. Hours still != minutes.

Yes you sent out an email saying a drop "could" happen.

It doesn't change the fact that you have glorified yourself in a light that is not realistic.

You send out emails all the time with "could". And don't deny it. You can even attest to this with your cycle theory you are using.

Saying minutes vs hours are definitely misleading.

Saying could and not would are also misleading.

Saying you are not a permabull yet telling people NOT TO SELL is misleading and borderline lying.

So as my estimates of your timeframe of that email were off. It doesn't change the underlying fallacies in your statement. (NOT EVEN INCLUDING THE LOGICAL FALLACY WHICH YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED).

How do you send out an alert DURING a sell-off but have it be minutes BEFORE a sell-off?

 

[cypherdoc]

well, i submit that i've cut your argument down to the size of a pea.  you've obviously never been in a court of law with litigators.  i have and given the sequence of posts and logical reasoning with proof that i've presented and the litany of misdirections i've exposed you in presenting, i will repeat what i said above:

so its reasonable to conclude that given the time of my warning about the pullback at 8/17/12, 12:10 PM and the time for everyone to begin to ponder what had happened and then for one of my subs to think about, pen, and then send me an email about what i thought and then for me to think about the situation and then pen this email response at 8/17/12, 2:20 PM exactly 2 hours and 10 minutes later; yes, it is reasonable for me to claim that i warned of a pullback within minutes of when it actually occurred.

[smoothie]

well, i submit that i've cut your argument down to the size of a pea.  you've obviously never been in a court of law with litigators.  i have and given the sequence of posts and logical reasoning with proof that i've presented and the litany of misdirections i've exposed you in presenting, i will repeat what i said above:

so its reasonable to conclude that given the time of my warning about the pullback at 8/17/12, 12:10 PM and the time for everyone to begin to ponder what had happened and then for one of my subs to think about, pen, and then send me an email about what i thought and then for me to think about the situation and then pen this email response at 8/17/12, 2:20 PM exactly 2 hours and 10 minutes later; yes, it is reasonable for me to claim that i warned of a pullback within minutes of when it actually occurred.

LOGICAL ERROR:

i said long ago that most of you around here will get shaken out of this bull market by overtrading.  i see plenty of evidence that this is happening.  

Don't be bothered by TA skeptics and always bullish people, this is a rich and extensive analysis considering it's free. Keep it up.

Blitz, and just what exactly is wrong with having been bullish all along?  i would submit that the majority of traders who've had the discipline to hang on over the last year and a half are UP with their accounts.  afterall, there has been only approx. one month in the entire 4yr hx of Bitcoin trading where the price has been higher, so statistically my claim should be valid.  of course i'm sure Smoothie will jump in here and say he's up a thousand %.  maybe, maybe not.  i can tell he's a day trader though so i have my doubts.  

i've made it public that my average cost in is around 6.50 so i've more than doubled my money w/o any trading headaches by being a "permabull" as you call it.

the obvious question some of you might ask is then why should we subscribe to you cypher if we all know you're just a bull?  the answer is that most of my subs are inexperienced traders that don't have the discipline to hold tight.  they need to be talked through big selloffs and have it explained to them why i remain bullish.  there will come a time when i say sell though.

and i'm not always bullish; i alerted my subs during the August selloff minutes before it happened.  from that move it was obvious what would happen so you can't call me a permabull.

During the sell off or minutes BEFORE the sell off? lol



Please address your logical fallacy in your original statement. I've been forthcoming on my mistakes in the time even given that it still proves that your claim of minutes vs hours is still flawed as well as other items.

[smoothie]

As often as you send emails you could take credit for the stock market crashing or any other fiat currency pair tanking. So not sure what you've proven given the high frequency of your email alerts and the vagueness of could vs would.

All you've proven is I have bad math skills today. LOL 

[cypherdoc]

smoothie, you are just parsing words.  sure i could've worded that better but its not technically incorrect English.

you know what we're debating here; its my claim that i warned about the selloff "within minutes".  i've shown that to be the case beyond a reasonable doubt.  minutes doesn't have to mean 1 or 2.  it could be 50 min.  i actually remember hammering out that warning email as we were going parabolic and then i saw it roll.  i can recognize a blowoff top when i see it.  so can many others who saw it too.  nothing special.

[cypherdoc]

All you've proven is I have bad math skills today. LOL 

i think i've proven much more than that.

[smoothie]

smoothie, you are just parsing words.  sure i could've worded that better but its not technically incorrect English.

you know what we're debating here; its my claim that i warned about the selloff "within minutes".  i've shown that to be the case beyond a reasonable doubt.  minutes doesn't have to mean 1 or 2.  it could be 50 min.  i actually remember hammering out that warning email as we were going parabolic and then i saw it roll.  i can recognize a blowoff top when i see it.  so can many others who saw it too.  nothing special.

Perhaps I am parsing words. What else is there to parse?

 Our words are our bond (i hope). You making false claims and illogical claims is very misleading.

[cypherdoc]

You making false claims and illogical claims is very misleading.

so nothing i've proven above with emails and timestamps is enough for you?

[smoothie]

All you've proven is I have bad math skills today. LOL 

i think i've proven much more than that.

This thread was not about me. This thread was about you.

Perhaps you have proved more than just that....(still waiting for you to fill in the blanks).

I've made my concerns very clear even so that the Speculation moderator noticed it.

I believe you are a good man. I just think sometimes you overshoot your mark on your claims and give yourself more credit than is due.

Also retracting and making claims and personal attacks against me doesn't help either. Thank you for acknowledging that you did indeed do that.

If you truly believe what you say then you shouldn't have to tout it right? I think we can both say that we agree to disagree here.

I think you have mislead with your statement and claims of "calling the top" when telling people at the same time NOT TO SELL.

But that is my take on it. It really doesn't matter what I think. This thread was to open up discussion of what I believed to be potentially harmful and untrue claims. It matters what everyone else who you shoot alerts out to thinks.

Shoot... even I could have said I called my futures trade of $11 3.5 months out (the one that ended on October 31st). Did I really tout that? Not really...it was kind of cool to be right. In fact I didn't even think I was going to be right. I thought the price would be higher.

I'm not telling you anything I wouldn't do myself okay? take it for what it is worth.

 

[smoothie]

You making false claims and illogical claims is very misleading.

so nothing i've proven above with emails and timestamps is enough for you?

Read above post before this one ^

[cypherdoc]

i'll end with just a few words of advice.  if you ever end up in a court of law, don't do what you did here.  the mere act of retracting so many inaccurate accusations even if they are just time related will make you look very bad in front of a jury and could cost you alot.  get your facts straight from the get go.

can we agree to end this?

[smoothie]

i'll end with just a few words of advice.  if you ever end up in a court of law, don't do what you did here.  the mere act of retracting so many inaccurate accusations even if they are just time related will make you look very bad in front of a jury and could cost you alot.  get your facts straight from the get go.

can we agree to end this?

New flash buddy....we are not in a court of law.

FACT: Before not equal to during
FACT: Minutes not equal to hours
FACT: DO NOT SELL not equal to Bear
(I think many of my facts line up pretty nicely despite my math error).

I think we can agree to end on this. But no my accusations, in my opinion, are accurate not counting the math part. You have made misleading statements IN MY OPINION.

But anyway have a nice Bit-cypher day!

 

[cypherdoc]

Okay let's break this down for all to see. This is what Cypher said earlier:

"and i'm not always bullish; i alerted my subs during the August selloff minutes before it happened.  from that move it was obvious what would happen so you can't call me a permabull."

1. Your statement first in blue is a paradox and can't be true logically. You can't alert your subs DURING the August selloff minutes BEFORE it happened. It's either during or before.

2. First you said this in an alert:


"-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Day 28
From: cypher doc < >
Date: Thu, August 16, 2012 2:48 pm
To: undisclosed-recipients:;

This push up is exceeding even my bullish expectations.  Could last nite's pullback have been IT?  Whatever you do, do NOT sell. The horrors of broken markets worldwide may exceed even our wildest fears and as a result the Bitcoin Push could be truly a sight to behold.

cypher"

THEN 18 HOURS LATER YOU SAID THIS:

"From:   
cypher doc <>   (Add as Preferred Sender)   
Date:   Fri, Aug 17, 2012 9:10 am
To:   undisclosed-recipients:;
could get a pullback here but it should be temporary as we move into the the daily cycle bottom.

cypher"

Your claim that it was MINUTES BEFORE the SELL OFF is false. You posted that a good 16 hours before the price started to come down from $15.40. Keep in mind not 24 hours earlier from this post you told people NOT TO SELL when the price was in the high 13's and low 14's.


Here are a few things to note:

1. Cypher's statement makes no sesne logically.
2. His claim of it being "MINUTES" before the fall in August is false. This probably is him glorifying himself and over exaggerrating the facts.
3. He did send out an alert 24 hours before the top in August. No where did he claim to sell as his comment gives notion that "he is not always a bull". This is false too.
4. He says "from that move it was obvious what would happen " but the funny thing is that he himself also says that NONE knew how far the fall would go also implying no one knows when the fall would start too. Yet it was "OBVIOUS". QUOTE:


---------------------------------------------------
"August 21st
There is no way Pirate owns the 500K Bitcoin address.  It belongs to Silk Road.  No larger investors in Bitcoin would ever turn their stashes over to a young anonymous kid who refused to reveal his business model and returned outrageous sums that were clearly unsustainable from the beginning.  It was clearly a ponzi scheme to me and now it looks like he won't even be returning the funds.  I don't think there will be any further selloff at all as we just had it from ppl anticipating a pirate selloff and just from the fact that it was time from a cycle and overbought standpoint.

The price action since the top has conformed perfectly with my daily cycle timing. No, I didn't expect a 55% dip but then no one else did either.  It's impossible to predict the extent of these dumps altho in retrospect my nascent cycle work did call for a coincidence of the daily and weekly cycles for the first time in months and was a hint that the dip might have been deeper than from a daily cycle alone.  The fact that we're bouncing is a good sign and I expect we will continue up in a right translated daily cycle fashion.  It will take some time for the market to regain it's confidence, however.

cypher"
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll let you all decide whether Cypher's statement in the OP was full of shit or not.

I believe it is. Glorifying yourself and giving yourself credit when you do not deserve it while clearly telling people NOT to sell and "claiming" to have called the fall in August and taking credit for it is just wrong. I'm outing his comment here because all I keep seeing is the following:

"Look at when I am right but I won't tell you when I am wrong."

Saying you are not a permabull when you never showed BEARISHNESS by saying "do not sell" is clearly a lie.
Saying you alerted your subscribers minutes before it happened is a lie.
Saying we "could" have a pullback is not worthy of credit given that's like saying "maybe i'm right and if so I will brag about it, if i'm not right I will never mention it again."

[cypherdoc]

what time did the selloff begin and how do you know this?

Time stamps is how I know. When you send your alerts they come in with a time stamp.

i know the emails have a timestamp but how did you go back and determine the time that the selloff began that day?  you said 16 hr after i said we could get a pullback.

Your email came in at Fri, Aug 17, 2012 9:10 am Hawaii Standard Time.

The price top did not happen until early the 18th for me when I was sleeping. Around 4 to 5am Hawaii Standard Time.

If you want me to go through the time stamps of the price too for you I will.

CYPHER: I even emailed you 5 hours after you sent out that alert and it was around 3pm HST on Friday the 17th.

[cypherdoc]

the way i see it is i said minutes before; you say 16 hr before.  i asked you for price timestamps to mark the beginning of the selloff but you haven't provided me any even though you said you could.  so we really don't know how far in advance.  

and like it really matters.  

This was the last time stamp of the last email I sent on the 16th

From:   
cypher doc <>   (Add as Preferred Sender)   
Date:   Thu, Aug 16, 2012 6:24 pm
To:   Smoothie

well, of course, at the end of the hour long or so consultation with the HNWI, i'd say "HIT THE BUY BUTTON!"

...which by my mistake was Thursday the 16th. The fall didn't happen until the 18th for me. So the "call" was much more than 16 hours! LOL!

here is a link to the graph of the price movement: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zczsg2012-08-15zeg2012-12-18ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Like it really matters?

See when you make false statements and get called out on it ......"IT DOESNT REALLY MATTER" ...right?

This shit is fucking hilarious!!! ROFL!!!  

[cypherdoc]

I forwarded you the email proving that your call was more that 24 hours before the actual fall.

LOL

"it doesn't matter ... yet let me glorify myself with false statements...but it doesn't matter" ~ Cypher

[cypherdoc]

well, of course, at the end of the hour long or so consultation with the HNWI, i'd say "HIT THE BUY BUTTON!"[/b]

...which by my mistake was Thursday the 16th. The fall didn't happen until the 18th for me. So the "call" was much more than 16 hours! LOL!

this is a perfect example of how you distort things Smoothie. and i've seen you do this with others.  in this email we were talking about my forum sig at the time when i was advertising for Skype consults for HNWI (high net worth individuals).  we were talking about the concept and how i would recommend buying Bitcoin as a long term investment to these ppl as i believe (as many others) that the price will go much higher.

recommending that HNWI buy Bitcoin had absolutely nothing to do with the price at that time.

you really are an idiot.

Sorry I sent the wrong email. Here is the other email where you made your "call" minutes before the price came down.

Subject:   
   Day 28
    
From:   
cypher doc <>   (Add as Preferred Sender)   
Date:   Fri, Aug 17, 2012 9:10 am
To:   undisclosed-recipients:;
could get a pullback here but it should be temporary as we move into the the daily cycle bottom.

cypher

NOTE THIS IS HAWAII STANDARD TIME.

Price did not hit $15.40 until August 18th early in the AM Hawaii Standard Time.


See even I can admit when I was wrong. I sent the wrong email by accident with the wrong time stamp. LOL gotta lead by example eh? LOL!!!

[cypherdoc]

On this chart for MT GOX at 6pm (on the chart's time zone)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2012-08-18zeg2012-08-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Right now for today it says it is 4am (12-18-12) on the chart, and for me (currently 6pm HST 12-17-12):

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2012-08-18zeg2012-08-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Which amounts to a 10 hour difference in my time to the time that is posted on these links.

So...if on August 17th at 6pm (the chart time) it was $15.40

And I got your email at Fri, Aug 17, 2012 11:20 am (3 hours difference from your time stamp, i think)....

That would say that you were off by 6 hours on that email. But this was not the email we initially referenced given you send out so many emails.

So the original email we referenced was at least 8 hours prior to the top at $15.40.

So how does 8 hours = minutes?

Plus how can you take credit for saying a dip "COULD" happen and NOT "would" happen?

Get off of your ego high-horse and admit you were exaggerating your claims.

Minutes != Hours

Could != Would

DO NOT SELL != Bearish

 

[cypherdoc]

On this chart for MT GOX at 6pm (on the chart's time zone)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2012-08-18zeg2012-08-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Right now for today it says it is 4am (12-18-12) on the chart, and for me (currently 6pm HST 12-17-12):

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2012-08-18zeg2012-08-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Which amounts to a 8 hour difference in my time to the time that is posted on these links.

So...if on August 17th at 6pm (the chart time) it was $15.40

And I got your email at Fri, Aug 17, 2012 11:20 am (3 hours difference from your time stamp, i think)....

That would say that you were off by 6 hours on that email. But this was not the email we initially referenced given you send out so many emails.

So the original email we referenced was at least 8 hours prior to the top at $15.40.

So how does 8 hours = minutes?

Plus how can you take credit for saying a dip "COULD" happen and NOT "would" happen?

Get off of your ego high-horse and admit you were exaggerating your claims.

Minutes != Hours

Could != Would

DO NOT SELL != Bearish

 

the simplest way for you to resolve the 2h 10m time difference btwn the 2 emails is for you to look in your logs just like you already have for the first email alone.

Uhh i did that. Not sure what your point was. My point was to determine the time between your email "alert" and the actual top of the price. So the dip did not start until after 10 hours (sorry about my math been a long day) of your initial email AT LEAST.

MINUTES != HOURS

[cypherdoc]

I just remembered I took that day off (17th) thinking it was the weekend (saturday).

Yes my whole time frame is off.

You are correct (i believe) on the time there (no not in minutes).

My mistake on the hours calculation. Hours still != minutes.

Yes you sent out an email saying a drop "could" happen.

It doesn't change the fact that you have glorified yourself in a light that is not realistic.

You send out emails all the time with "could". And don't deny it. You can even attest to this with your cycle theory you are using.

Saying minutes vs hours are definitely misleading.

Saying could and not would are also misleading.

Saying you are not a permabull yet telling people NOT TO SELL is misleading and borderline lying.

So as my estimates of your timeframe of that email were off. It doesn't change the underlying fallacies in your statement. (NOT EVEN INCLUDING THE LOGICAL FALLACY WHICH YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED).

How do you send out an alert DURING a sell-off but have it be minutes BEFORE a sell-off?