Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[philipma1957]

philipma going for the most wrong ever prize here I think.... 

I picked it so it can't win. I would not want to take a chance from others.

This contest was not funded by me so I used to pick a real pick.

I now fund the contest so I do not really want to try to win.

[tss]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

[wlefever]

+15.5 = wlefever

Thanks!  This is depressing lol
 

[Biodom]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

[philipma1957]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

  There is no need to kill off home mining.  In fact if they do the game will fail.

Home miners are the grease in the machine.  If you live in a place that you use an electric space heater   a 1 kwatt miner is a viable option.

There is no reason to shut that off as your safety valve.

I feel the s-7   will be replaced by an s-9 that runs at .1 watts just a tad better then the bitfury gear running at .11

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey

[notlist3d]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

  There is no need to kill off home mining.  In fact if they do the game will fail.

Home miners are the grease in the machine.  If you live in a place that you use an electric space heater   a 1 kwatt miner is a viable option.

There is no reason to shut that off as your safety valve.

I feel the s-7   will be replaced by an s-9 that runs at .1 watts just a tad better then the bitfury gear running at .11

Bitmain is a huge mining force, and we have heard nothing about next gen.  It makes me wonder if they have it in their pocket waiting to launch, or still need R/D.  One would think they have been doing dev, and would have something.

I can see them making S7's at lower and lower price before having.   I think chances are they have perfected it as far as low cost to them, and design.  So will be interesting to watch.

[kama]

here is my prediction

+16.2 = kama

[tertius993]

+12.9 = tertius993

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey

[mavericklm]

Morning update

Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,104,050,628 (+17.55%)
Adjust time:    After 899 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,030,240,453 GH/s

Blockchain.info is saying 948PH

Status: small miners will get.....

[notlist3d]

Morning update

Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,104,050,628 (+17.55%)
Adjust time:    After 899 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,030,240,453 GH/s

Blockchain.info is saying 948PH

Status: small miners will get.....

It is almost cray the more I think about this.  We thought we had a good amount of hash out there already.  But if in one difficulty they still can do 15+ percent that is a lot of new  machines, and most likely new chips. 

And if we consider most of those are probley the big companies.  I wonder what effect it has on BTC price, as likely a lot of them sell and trade for fiat quite frequently vs holding onto coins.  I wish I could see a stat of how many coins mined in a day are sold vs held onto.

[RichBC]

Well things slowed a little Yesterday, only.... +11.8% and 161 Blocks, and the slowdown seems to have continued with Today's run rate at 7% but could just be variance as earlyish in the Day.

So picks will close some in about 12 Hours time, but as ever it's a tricky pick particularly as the run rate has just slowed.

Rich

[alh]

+14.8 = alh

What an awful prediction though......

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   141,926,336,698 (+18.24%)
Adjust time:   After 845 Blocks, About 5.0 days >>>>>>>>>>picks end at 816 get them in
Hashrate(?):   1,033,473,579 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.2 minutes
Updated:   8:25 (3.6 minutes ago)



29 blocks to go
13 blocks to go



 I will repeat there will be a winner.  I am giving it to the closest range.


 No rollovers other then if my pick of -1.2% is the winner I will roll that over.


I am maxing the prize at .2 from now on. So only 1 rollover.

[fr4nkthetank]

I'm thinking the diff increase is mostly due to the antminer s7 batch that shipped out around Jan 20th, so people got it a few days later and then turned them on.  There may still be hope. 

[DanDan]

+18.0 = DanDan

We'll set a new record maybe.

[mavericklm]

+19.5 = mavericklm

thinking about my batch 1 s7.... that ROI....

[notlist3d]

I'm thinking the diff increase is mostly due to the antminer s7 batch that shipped out around Jan 20th, so people got it a few days later and then turned them on.  There may still be hope. 

I'm not sure your talking about a lot of S7's if so.   It could also be them build more S7's to sit in spots tilll after holiday when they start shipping again.

Still not sure though, it could be next gen starting to hit.  One of these day's if not yet bitfury is going to be pumping out a lot of gear.

All I know for sure is bitwisdom looks worse and worse:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    142,496,809,802 (+18.71%)
Adjust time:    After 827 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,038,662,429 GH/s

[lanfeusst]

+18.7 = lanfeusst