Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[skuser]

I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? 

He should have gone with the 'The Price Is Right' strategy and said "What's the highest bid, Bob? 19.9? I'll go with 20.0"

okay skuser 20.9  tried to do a smart pick.

so I will top off at 21.9  above that it is a rollover.

I do believe it is fair I also think he was very close to missing cutoff .

I am betting just for fun so If I should be winner I will let the prize stay in the betting fund

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,510,292,891 (+19.56%)
Adjust time:    After 721 Blocks, About 4.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,036,421,049 GH/s

Grey line goes almost horizontal. Getting to a stable place?!

Hash Rate    1,068,073,261.37 GH/s on blockchain info

I think this is more than s7. Sptech or someone else is up and running! Heard of sp50 on the market

[alh]

No offense intended, but if skuser is correct at 20.9%, then we all lose. Just scrolling back, you have to go back to August of 2014 to see one in excess of 20%. We did have a gut wrenching 18.14% change just this last December.

Since October of last year, my rough eyeball calculation puts the difficulty increase at well north of 80%. This is just brutal compared to a good 6 months of 2015. Welcome to the "ASIC arms race"!!!

 

[usenet]

The current increase in difficulty can confirm the construction of new mines and staffing new equipment. For example HAOBTC which is surely not the biggest player expanded its computing power based on Avalon 6.
At the moment we continue race befor halving. In the near future with such increase in difficulty and such investment needs we should see the rise of the BTC, I think.

[philipma1957]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die. 

[adaseb]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die. 

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

[philipma1957]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die.  

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

Hashrate is going to crash.  As wild as it may sound  the network was in good shape  with coins at 230  diff at 55 hash at 407 back in sept.

With the ½ing   coins will be at 500 or so about 2x the sept 4 price  which is break even  and hashrate will be greater then 1300 with diff over 160 that is 3x worse then sept 2015 levels

So some would think price will move to fix this I used to think it.  Not so sure since for this game to stay and work transaction need big time growth.

[adaseb]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die.  

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

Hashrate is going to crash.  As wild as it may sound  the network was in good shape  with coins at 230  diff at 55 hash at 407 back in sept.

With the ½ing   coins will be at 500 or so about 2x the sept 4 price  which is break even  and hashrate will be greater then 1300 with diff over 160 that is 3x worse then sept 2015 levels

So some would think price will move to fix this I used to think it.  Not so sure since for this game to stay and work transaction need big time growth.

Back in 2014, the hashrate never really crashed. It had like 1 negative difficulty period and the rest were flat.  I see the price crashing but not the difficulty.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    144,159,267,633 (+20.10%)

[Tmdz]

Were about at 20% but f it why stop there lets go for 50% or 100% increase, lets make halving seem like a joke to these increases!

Ok that was a little sarcastic

[skuser]

Effect of 50% difficulty growth and bitcoin reward halving is the same so basically with this diff jump we will be experiencing reward halving which just took one month to happen.

[ingiltere]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

[d57heinz]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

This is exactly why i didnt buy s7.. I knew what was coming.. We didnt see any significant gains in difficulty when we went to s5  or .5 w/ghs.. so i knew something big was about to happen.. What i think will go down is the large farms in china only sell what they have to to keep the machines on.. Saving the rest.> If price doesnt go up or starts to drop they will just dump it.. As they can be profitable down to 80 $ or less.. Hell they will prolly mine at a loss just to push everyone out that built this from the ground up just to take it over.. Like ive said before its no wonder satoshi left.. Would love to see the conversation that he had with core devs upon his departure.. What was the real reasons???.. anyway i dont see a hashrate crash at all. since us little guys dont even make up 10 % of the network.. It will most likely be a price crash.. And soon i fear.. Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants for months/years to come!  Btc wont be immune to this!

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

This is exactly why i didnt buy s7.. I knew what was coming.. We didnt see any significant gains in difficulty when we went to s5  or .5 w/ghs.. so i knew something big was about to happen.. What i think will go down is the large farms in china only sell what they have to to keep the machines on.. Saving the rest.> If price doesnt go up or starts to drop they will just dump it.. As they can be profitable down to 80 $ or less.. Hell they will prolly mine at a loss just to push everyone out that built this from the ground up just to take it over.. Like ive said before its no wonder satoshi left.. Would love to see the conversation that he had with core devs upon his departure.. What was the real reasons???.. anyway i dont see a hashrate crash at all. since us little guys dont even make up 10 % of the network.. It will most likely be a price crash.. And soon i fear.. Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants for months/years to come!  Btc wont be immune to this!

Best Regards
d57heinz

Man that is so very gloom and doom.

    I can give two shits about the world of btc  in the sense it can bust And I will have had a lot fun not losing a lot of $.

But Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants

 is really hard to read.




 Don't forget Donald Trump will be the next prez  he will build The USA a wall and make it great again!  So how can dark days be ahead for us?     < heavy sarcasm 

[Mikestang]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

[philipma1957]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

Did you ever see an old nature show about lemmings jumping off cliffs?

I am as bullish as the next  guy about BTC  but I do not see any sense to the growth of hash at this time.

If It crashes today I would be at a 7k  loss maybe a little more or less.

I will mine and see what happens.

[radiumsoup]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

When it comes down to it, after the halving, the continuing success of bitcoin is going to require one of the following two things (or a combination, I suppose) :

A. Sellers of bitcoin covering hard fiat costs (that's the mega miners/manufacturers) must become unwilling to sell their mined bitcoin at the current price, lowering supply
2. More non-miners must be willing to buy bitcoin on the open market, raising demand

Either way, the price of bitcoin must go up so the mega-miners will continue to do better than break even. If neither of those things happen, then the miner-manufacturers will necessarily have to scale back their operations - at least to the extent that their bitcoin reserves can support them - just to keep from folding, and the hashrate will drop (or, at minimum, flatline.) See: almost all of 2015 until the .25w asics were deployed at scale.

In short, the market will stabilize as it grows, so don't panic, think long term, and as always, don't play with your mortgage money.

This conversation happened before 4 years ago, and it will happen again 4 years from now. The difference today from 4 years ago is that we have some perspective from the first halving (the sheer panic of the unknown was palpable last time), and next time we'll have the perspective of two halvings to look back on.

[philipma1957]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

When it comes down to it, after the halving, the continuing success of bitcoin is going to require one of the following two things (or a combination, I suppose) :

A. Sellers of bitcoin covering hard fiat costs (that's the mega miners/manufacturers) must become unwilling to sell their mined bitcoin at the current price, lowering supply
2. More non-miners must be willing to buy bitcoin on the open market, raising demand

Either way, the price of bitcoin must go up so the mega-miners will continue to do better than break even. If neither of those things happen, then the miner-manufacturers will necessarily have to scale back their operations - at least to the extent that their bitcoin reserves can support them - just to keep from folding, and the hashrate will drop (or, at minimum, flatline.) See: almost all of 2015 until the .25w asics were deployed at scale.

In short, the market will stabilize as it grows, so don't panic, think long term, and as always, don't play with your mortgage money.

This conversation happened before 4 years ago, and it will happen again 4 years from now. The difference today from 4 years ago is that we have some perspective from the first halving (the sheer panic of the unknown was palpable last time), and next time we'll have the perspective of two halvings to look back on.

I am keeping the 4 avalon6's  and mining them.  I cashed some coins so that if coins crash I can buy them at a cheaper price.

I kept some coins so that if coins go Higher I can cash them at a high price.

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

[d57heinz]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

No but i know the right places to look


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iAIQ1Ixl-Bitcoin-6-weeks-of-distribution-at-430-now-headed-lower/    push the play button on the graph to see how well this was predicted.. and just how much more to go

best regards
d57heinz