Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[Biodom]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

I have an even better one:
https://youtu.be/2RJH7GdvjP0?t=55

[adaseb]

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

I have an even better one:
https://youtu.be/2RJH7GdvjP0?t=55

LOL !

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

No but i know the right places to look


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iAIQ1Ixl-Bitcoin-6-weeks-of-distribution-at-430-now-headed-lower/    push the play button on the graph to see how well this was predicted.. and just how much more to go

best regards
d57heinz

I don't give a damm about Tim's prediction. Who the hell is that guy anyway ?

I just never take a decision simply based on a pure graphic/mathematics speculation. Whatever if he's been right in the past.

I like to see people speculate and been wrong or good. There is line that I do not prefer to cross and that is mixing a bunch of speculation into 3 sentence and sounds like the end of the fucking universe is about to hit the door and based on what ? More speculating stuff ?

It always all good until it fails you.

[adaseb]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

[edonkey]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

[notlist3d]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

I believe it's 10k a day to which is important.   And buy back depends on verification level, it can be from instant to day's on timeframe to get coins.

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

I believe it's 10k a day to which is important.   And buy back depends on verification level, it can be from instant to day's on timeframe to get coins.

I can sell up to 50k and buy up to 10k but that is all with a 5 day delay.  Instant I can buy  1k.

No instant sales no matter how low.

I have been with them for about 2 years

[alh]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

[edonkey]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

Thanks Phil. That's pretty straightforward. I'm already cleared with Coinbase's ID requirements.

Note that I was thinking about selling anyway, but not in anticipation of some sort of crash. My issue is that I bought into batch 1 S7s. They were so expensive in BTC terms that the only ROI that I can see is in fiat.

At this stage my S7s have earned about 75% of ROI in fiat terms in 129 days. That's largely due to the price increase since I bought these.

Whereas I'm only 47% ROI in pure BTC terms. At the current difficulty, I'm still 205 days from a BTC ROI. With the insane difficulty increases this effectively equates to 'never'. These early S7s were always a long shot due to the halving, but now it's basically impossible.

The only way to get a return is a combination of selling BTC and selling the S7s, at an opportune time.

Man, life was much simpler in the good ole S3 and SP20E days. Those ROI'd in pure BTC terms in no more than 120 days. By the time I sold them, I more than doubled my BTC investment.

I can see a not-too-distant future where all I'll have is a pair of Sidehack Compac sticks, just to keep my hand in...

[philipma1957]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

blocks need to increase in size so that transactions grow in size.  not in btc size just more transactions.

growth is crazy.. I started in 2012  the network was 20th   right now I am mining 24th in my house  so in 3 years and 6 months we went from 20 th to 1050 ph.

this is 51,000 x the hash.  and transactions have not grown any where near this

and july 2012 transactions are 25,000 a day that is 8x 




 https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


 so hash is 51,000x   transactions are 8x   blocks did a ½ in reward  and price is up 40x

so 40x 8 =  320x    vs 51,000x       that is so fucking lopsided it is nuts.
 = 





I left out the ½ ing of 2012 and the one on the way  which make the

320 to 51,000     2x worse   now  so 160 to 51,000   this is 340 to 1 now ,   but what about power ahh I could spend 200 watts for 1 gh using a gpu  now I can spend .25 watts a gh and that is

800 to one so we are doing better once power factors in.

actually  we are a better off right now then we were in july 2012 when I join the game.

but it is late and the math could be wrong.   and I was not doing to well back in 2012 at this game.

[notlist3d]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

blocks need to increase in size so that transactions grow in size.  not in btc size just more transactions.

growth is crazy.. I started in 2012  the network was 20th   right now I am mining 24th in my house  so in 3 years and 6 months we went from 20 th to 1050 ph.

this is 51,000 x the hash.  and transactions have not grown any where near this

Part of it I find cray is that this growth of 20+ were looking  at one difficulty change. If someone would have told me in October difficulty would have moved so quick like it is not I would have not have believed it.

I think this many high difficulty changes will change things.   Exactly what will happen.... I'm not sure.  But something will happen with changes like this.   Just the price of gear unless some new chips is going to go down quickly.  And what else will be interesting to see.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    145,442,382,989 (+21.17%)
Adjust time:    After 532 Blocks, About 3.0 days

Race!!! for the halving!
And we are fucked!

[tss]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

[RichBC]

So another Big day Yesterday +24.3% 179 Blocks. It's a bit too early to judge but am afraid to say that Today looks like a big step up again. The Daily rate after 6 Hours is showing +50%. If this is even half right Today will be some sort of record...


Rich

[notlist3d]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

I don't think it's a joke. We are in for either a horrible time for miners, or a skyrocket on value.    No one can predict which one it will be.

The big operations have the lowest electricity prices (for the most part).   And the best prices in gear, if not tied in with maker of miner.    These miners will have to dump BTC for fiat to cover operation.  They have to sell no matter price, and they can do it at lower price then most home/hobby miner.

Add the not knowing of having to this..... it's hard to say whats going to happen in next months.   

[RichBC]

  These miners will have to dump BTC for fiat to cover operation.  They have to sell no matter price, and they can do it at lower price then most home/hobby miner.

Add the not knowing of having to this..... it's hard to say whats going to happen in next months.   

Looking on the bright side..... given the amount of BTC they must be dumping every Day I guess you could say the price is holding up very well...


Rich

[skuser]

I don't see much correlation between price and hashrate. Sure hashrate follows price but not vice versa. What we are seeing is just info that costs of hardware producers are much lower than previously thought so they can either ROI before halving or the new tech plugged in has so low consumption it will survive halving.
Number of daily mined bitcoins is fixed and represents about 2-3% daily traded volume on exchanges so I don't think this would be the reason of price crash.

What I can imagine as a reason of price crash after halving is that this hardware deployed was meant to be shortlived just to squeeze every penny from this opportunity which would mean brutal slowing down of block generation thus making the network unusable for payments. And I doubt chinese guys care about lofty ideas.