Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[philipma1957]

The last adjustment was missed by all of us.

The new difficulty is   120,033,340,651
The old difficulty was 113,354,299,801

divide you get 5.89%

120,033,340,651/113,354,299,801 = 1.058921812 -1 = 5.892%


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395160
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120086213298 in 1992 blks
 
Network total   963417.632 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.02 / 513 s



they are stuck on yesterday.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:   After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   967,826,093 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes


old thread is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.0


We normally use bitcoinwisdom as the official numbers but in a pinch the method above works.

[1715206638]

1715206638

[1715206638]

1715206638

[1715206638]

1715206638

[1715206638]

1715206638

[1715206638]

1715206638

[philipma1957]

Okay  prize is 0.20  btc it will be given away no carryover this time.


No new members.

Joined by Oct 31 2015 and at least 30 good posts.


you get to pick a range you can not pick a range someone else has.

So   

lower is allowed
-2.0
-1.9
-1.7


-0.1

0.0

+0.1
+0.2

+5.0
+5.1

+9.8
+9.9

higher is allowed

here were last contest picks

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda 

final picks are above.


Picks start at  600 blocks in and end at 1200 blocks


this means

 https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395161
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120089932655 in 1991 blks      when this is at 1416 we start picks 
 
Network total   958993.707 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.99 / 515 s

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395161
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120089932655 in 1991 blks when this is at 816 we end picks
 
Network total   958993.707 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.99 / 515 s


We have .8 in funds from the original donor of funds (thank you)
I am adding .2 in funds  so we have 1.0 in funds
This prize is 0.20 btc and will be given to the closest picker in the ranges

Since I am now adding funding to this I will  pick now

-1.2 = philipma1957         this gives me from -1.2 to -1.1       If it hits I will put it back into the next round. 


note format please     

[valkir]

Yeah 0.2  

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

[Mikestang]

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

5% was not so bad when the network difficulty was 30G, but 5% of 111G is a very significant increase!  I think we're going to see solid increases right up to the halving, especially as new tech is being introduced.  I suspect there will be some efficiency break throughs right around the halving, too, in order to keep mining profitable for the huge farms.

[notlist3d]

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

5% was not so bad when the network difficulty was 30G, but 5% of 111G is a very significant increase!  I think we're going to see solid increases right up to the halving, especially as new tech is being introduced.  I suspect there will be some efficiency break throughs right around the halving, too, in order to keep mining profitable for the huge farms.

It's getting better from larger changes though:

Jan 13 2016    113,354,299,801    9.12%    811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015    103,880,340,815    11.16%    743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015    93,448,670,796    18.14%    668,931,642 GH/s

5 percent compared to those I consider a win.  Could be a lot worse.  Hopefully this one is even lower.

[skuser]

The growth is really depressing. Looking at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png the purple 7 days line is at least 10% above current difficulty level and there wasn't any significant slowdown in hashrate for last 5 days. I do hope it will come soon but now it looks really ugly.

[fr4nkthetank]

I'd just like to take the time to say Thanks for organizing this contest, its really fun.  Also as bitcoin crack addicts as most are, speculating about difficulty and mining is quite satisfying.

[notlist3d]

I'd just like to take the time to say Thanks for organizing this contest, its really fun.  Also as bitcoin crack addicts as most are, speculating about difficulty and mining is quite satisfying.

I agree thanks for keeping it going Phil, it is one of my favorite threads speculating on difficulty.  And thanks also to original donor.

Bitwisdom appears to be stuck which stinks, as I normally enjoy watching it.   Were starting this period with BTC value around 392, would be nice to hit 400 by end.  Don't know if it will happen but I hope so.

[ingiltere]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

[Mikestang]

Were starting this period with BTC value around 392, would be nice to hit 400 by end.  Don't know if it will happen but I hope so.

Well it has been over $400 a couple times in the last week, then drops back to 380-390.  At least it seems like we have stabilized around the 400 mark and it's holding value.  We were at 200 for so long that to be double that now is a cool thing, makes that coin mined back then look even better in my wallet.

[philipma1957]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

I do manual  with this one

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395329
Total BTC   15.133M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   122081848321 in 1823 blks
 
Network total   969386.465 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.77 / 532 s


Just   divide Estimated   122081848321 by actual Difficulty   120033340651


122081848321/120033340651 =  1.017066   - 1 =  .017066  which is 1.706%

[notlist3d]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

I do manual  with this one

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395329
Total BTC   15.133M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   122081848321 in 1823 blks
 
Network total   969386.465 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.77 / 532 s


Just   divide Estimated   122081848321 by actual Difficulty   120033340651


122081848321/120033340651 =  1.017066   - 1 =  .017066  which is 1.706%

I'm happy to see a 1.7 if we could only keep that I will be happy.  The bad thing is BTC value went opposite way as I hoped, around 383 so we lost around 10 bucks instead of gaining 10.

It is slowly going up though on value just is not fast.

[adaseb]

Yesterday still ended up being +6% which is still considered big considering we went up 6% the day prior. And with the price drop, not looking too good.

[RichBC]

Yesterday still ended up being +6% which is still considered big considering we went up 6% the day prior. And with the price drop, not looking too good.

I actually made it 155 Blocks / +7.64% and we came out of the previous Period on a higher run rate that that so I think we are in for another big increase. Seems to be no end to additional hash at the moment.....


Rich

[adaseb]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

 

[RichBC]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

Not sure that is an upside as I need to sell my S5's, should have done it a Month ago.....


Rich

[mavericklm]

Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is back!

and is pretty hight atm:
Estimated Next Difficulty:    133,724,540,385 (+11.41%)
Adjust time:    After 1710 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):    899,146,417 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is back!

thanks for info..


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   133,724,540,385 (+11.41%) this is high
Adjust time:   After 1710 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):   899,146,417 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   8:15 (1.8 minutes ago)


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395442
Total BTC   15.136M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   123514931129 in 1710 blks
 
Network total   850369.323 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.94 / 606 s



THE network can do just about 1000ph  the four days last adjustment average to 970ph

we are at 859 ph to give us the diff of 120

so for us to go to 970 in 2 jumps seems pretty certain.  that would be back to back 6.3%



http://btc.blockr.io/charts

[d57heinz]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

Not sure that is an upside as I need to sell my S5's, should have done it a Month ago.....


Rich

Yeah im thinking the same.. Look at this http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter   when those get ready to deploy diff will go up so easy.. Could be the cause now (testing these containers?).. Hard to buy equip now and plan for any chance of roi.. I knew this day would eventually come. but that doesnt mean im any less bitter about it.. At one point i was at 80 ths.. Now down to 27 ths and looks like even that will have to be sold off.. Not sure what to do at this point.. If only i had free power  Ehh is what it is.  all i can hope for is a crazy spike before halving.. but coin was mineable sustained at 180$ so we may have already seen our doubling priced in. idk..  Also a doubling in hash.. So technically we arent any better off now then at 180 price range except after halving if price doesn't go up..all old tech finally should be shut down..  Guess my plan now is to mine and hold till halving and see what equip is out then.. and take a dive again at the new tech.  Need to sell off some old tech.. got piles of it in the garage.  EDIT  was hoping sidehack was needing some parts as i was saving the s1 i have for his project. Be nice to put them to use or at least most of it to use again.. I have 37  s1.

Best regards
d57heinz

[wlefever]

Holy shit that drop in datacenter is insane.  Only 400 Sq ft for 12-16 PH/s!!  But how many of those will actually be deployed I wonder?

If i could just get a 10TH/s immersion cooled small container I could run silently I would be happy.

[philipma1957]

Holy shit that drop in datacenter is insane.  Only 400 Sq ft for 12-16 PH/s!!  But how many of those will actually be deployed I wonder?

If i could just get a 10TH/s immersion cooled small container I could run silently I would be happy.

needs 1.5 mega watts    for 12ph


12ph now needs 3 mega watts


while very impressive it is a render not real

and it looks to be 8 by 50 feet and 16 feet tall

how do I supply it with 1.5 mega watts?

what does it cost?

1.5 mega watts = 6 mega btu  

  my homes furnace is 100k btc

so this unit will have 60 times the heat energy of my home.

it is about 6400 cubic feet.

my home is  25 by 45 by 25 or  28125 cubic feet.

so say my home is 4x the cubic feet    take 60 x the btu energy of my home and 4x it is 240x the heat per square inch.

 those fans on top will be putting out huge crazy heat.

has anyone seen their operating light bulbs?

[cryptotore]

Holy shit that drop in datacenter is insane.  Only 400 Sq ft for 12-16 PH/s!!  But how many of those will actually be deployed I wonder?

If i could just get a 10TH/s immersion cooled small container I could run silently I would be happy.

Buy 2x S7's. Create a sealed container for the boards. Cover the boards with 3M Novec 7000 (heat sinks off/copper boiler). And find a way to cool down the Novec gas inside the container. Copper coil with running water/radiator or something like that.

I'm currently planning something similar. If I can get my hands on some Novec 7000, I'm going to try it with a couple of S1 boards first, to figure it all out.
Inspiration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_vJbGgxPTU

If anyone know where I can buy some Novec 7000, please send me a PM.
I've tried contacting 3M, but haven't gotten a reply yet.

Cheers

[notlist3d]

Price hit under 380, were around 377 right now.   Hopefully we see a change.   But this is opposite way as I hoped it would go.

Bitwisdom is back up but it is showing a high amount:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    134,038,798,965 (+11.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1637 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):    911,733,806 GH/s

[adaseb]

Yesterday ended up being flat at the number of blocks found but price crashed -7% so not good either way.

[wlefever]

Price hit under 380, were around 377 right now.   Hopefully we see a change.   But this is opposite way as I hoped it would go.

Bitwisdom is back up but it is showing a high amount:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    134,038,798,965 (+11.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1637 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):    911,733,806 GH/s

We haven't seen the low yet I'm afraid but it will get better.  Hopefully one more retrace then we moon! All while seeing sub 5% adjustments would be great.

[adaseb]

Today we will probably beat the 200blocks per day mark. We are already at +33% of blocks found for the day.

[RichBC]

Yes we were running around +6.5% Yesterday but a one very long Block, 1 1/2 Hours, dropped the rate to negative for the Day. Has rapidly corrected Today and we are back to +6.75% run rate for the period so far. Just shows you don't want to look too close at the Data, particularily early in a new period.

Rich

[RichBC]

Today we will probably beat the 200blocks per day mark. We are already at +33% of blocks found for the day.

Run rate for the Day has now stabilised a little lower at around 28%, but definitely some hash has been added. I think we will see at least +26% / 180 Blocks, but only needs a few quick or slow Blocks to throw it either way.

Rich

[philipma1957]

I have 155 in 22 hours

we should be 132 in 22 hours

so I get 170 give or take 3 blocks.

170/144 = 1.18  x 859 =  1013 ph   last adjustment we did an average of 970ph four days in a row.

So while we are ahead of the 859 ph from last difficulty.  we are  also doing our first 1000ph+ day


https://blockchain.info/blocks

395667
395512

[notlist3d]

Yes we were running around +6.5% Yesterday but a one very long Block, 1 1/2 Hours, dropped the rate to negative for the Day. Has rapidly corrected Today and we are back to +6.75% run rate for the period so far. Just shows you don't want to look too close at the Data, particularily early in a new period.

Rich

Price is a little bit up today were around 380 right now.  So could have been worse on it falling down.    We still have a lot of time left in this period to see what happens.

Bitwisdom still has a high number:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    134,701,415,108 (+12.22%)
Adjust time:    After 1466 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):    932,700,816 GH/s

[philipma1957]

picks are going to open in about 2 hours

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   135,571,366,499 (+12.94%)
Adjust time:   After 1422 Blocks, About 8.9 days >>>>>>>>> we open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   972,180,603 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (5.0 minutes ago)

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in.

[RichBC]

Yesterday we made 169 Blocks, +17.36% for the day. Run rate for the period going out of Yesterday was +6.8% and has been climbing steadily Today and is now at +10.6%.

Today's rate (a bit dangerous to look at as based on a small number of Blocks)  is looking very high so far is running at +45% so if this continues we will be in for a Big Day (Perhaps +28%, 185 Blocks) and probably setting the scene for a High Period.... Remember next period includes CNY so a lot of incentive to get as much Hash as possible up and running before the Holiday.


Rich

[ezeminer]

So the real question is, are double digits back to stay? Because we're at 14% projected.

[Swordsoffreedom]

That projected difficulty is damn high for this point in time, makes me wonder what came online as I have not been looking at mining much the last few rounds well I'll go with an even + 10 this round.

+10.0 Swordsoffreedom

[lolxxxx]

+9.0

[philipma1957]

picks are going to open in about 2 hours

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   135,571,366,499 (+12.94%)
Adjust time:   After 1422 Blocks, About 8.9 days >>>>>>>>> we open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   972,180,603 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (5.0 minutes ago)

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


+ 9.0  =  lolxxxx
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom

[tekno]

i guess next diff = %7.2

[ACAB]

+8.0 = ACAB

Bitcoinwisdom shows +14.63 projected increase but it's too much. %8 is good for next difficulty rise.

[philipma1957]

picks are going to open in about 2 hours

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   135,571,366,499 (+12.94%)
Adjust time:   After 1422 Blocks, About 8.9 days >>>>>>>>> we open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   972,180,603 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (5.0 minutes ago)

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in

+8.0 = ACAB
+ 9.0  =  lolxxxx
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom

[cakir]

+12.0 = cakir

Bitfury devices are coming.

[philipma1957]

i guess next diff = %7.2

you are not eligible

read here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1341763.msg13684685#msg13684685

we have had fraudulent entries so I had to put in that rule

if you had  entered with correct format I most likely would have just clicked and dragged you into place


but you wrote your entry really off

correct        +7.2 = tekno

wrong          I guess next diff =%7.2

I took a closer look at you because of that error and I read your profile  you joined on Dec 1 2015 Not early as the rules say Oct 31 2015


Since the point of the thread is fun and a free chance to get some coin I am inclined to try to figure a way to allow you in the game.

You joined on Dec 1
I read your all your posts  and looked at your profile.
You can write  2 languages  and seem to be a  real not a fake account.
So  when The next contest starts about Feb 10 I will update the Joined time from Oct 31 to Dec 1
You will be able to join the contest then.

Best regards Phil

[valkir]

+12.1 = valkir

[philipma1957]

picks are going to open in about 2 hours

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   135,571,366,499 (+12.94%)
Adjust time:   After 1422 Blocks, About 8.9 days >>>>>>>>> we open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   972,180,603 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (5.0 minutes ago)

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in

 +8.0  = ACAB
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom



+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir

[vortexz]

+14.4 = vortexz

[alfacro]

+14.1 = alfacro

[adaseb]

+9.1 = adaseb

[Psi]

   +9.6 = Psi

[philipma1957]

picks are going to open in about 2 hours

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   135,571,366,499 (+12.94%)
Adjust time:   After 1422 Blocks, About 8.9 days >>>>>>>>> we open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   972,180,603 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (5.0 minutes ago)

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in

 +8.0  = ACAB
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom



+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir

+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz

[Tmdz]

+15.3 = Tmdz


This difficulty is looking horrible, we need a natural disaster to destroy some of these farms.

[indiemax]

+ 10.9% = indiemax

thanks

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in

 +8.0  = ACAB
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9% = indiemax

+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir

+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+15.3 = Tmdz

[vortexz]

+15.3 = Tmdz


This difficulty is looking horrible, we need a natural disaster to destroy some of these farms.

couldn't agree more !
hope bitfury's farms will take fire and burn to the ground !

[vapourminer]

+8.1 = vapourminer

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in

 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9% = indiemax

+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir

+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+15.3 = Tmdz

[Lituation]

+11.0 = Lituation

Difficulty decrease is not realistic but you can hope for it. We'll see over 10% again.

[sebbysebbybinx]

+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx

[wpt1wpt1]

+11.8 = wpt1wpt1

[fr4nkthetank]

wo wo wo wow oww o



WHAT IS IT with all these crazy high diff increases   + 10 % are you guys kidding me.  are you kidding me.  THIS IS CRAZY.  dont do this to me.  please.  by the way, just saw the movie "the game" 1997, with Michael Douglas and Sean Penn, pretty damn awesome, I recommend to all.


+6.9 = fr4nkthetank

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in
+6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir

+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+15.3 = Tmdz

+17.0 = ezeminer

[adaseb]

We just had a +29% day so maybe we will see +15-20% diff increase next week.

[ezeminer]

+17.0 = ezeminer

Hopefully it doesn't go this high, but if it does hopefully we see a nice bump in the price.

Edit: I forgot a word, that word is there.

[adaseb]

+17.0 = ezeminer

Hopefully it doesn't go this high, but if it does we see a nice bump in the price.

I don't think that's the way it works

[Last of the V8s]

+11.5 = Last of the V8s

[Amph]

it's crazy that is still going on average by almost 10% when the value is sitting there unchanged basically

this confirm that miners have plenty of margin to make profit

i think this time i'll wait until we are more near the end to decide...what will be my pick..

[RichBC]

Yes I am afraid we are on a roll... Big Day Yesterday and another coming Today. I am expecting maybe a little less than Yesterday around +24% & 179 Blocks.

Rich

[zebedee]

This one's a monster

+16.0 = zebedee

[zebedee]

It's crazy, this 2 week cycle will add the whole network as it existed in July 2014, which was certainly no slouch.

[blindminer]

+13.1 = blindminer

[d57heinz]

+14.5 = d57heinz


http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=week&t=a

scrolling across that graph its quite obvious we havent even seen what bitfury can bring to the table.. Look at growth  

sept 11 2015 -    jan 17 2016  

antpool  68ph/s then  now 231 ph/s  quadrupled
f2pool    81ph/s then  now 199 ph/s  about 1.5x increase
bw.com  28ph/s ""     ""    62.7ph/s   2.25 x increase
btcchina 41ph/s ""     ""    116ph/s    2.8x increase

BITFURY  70 ph/s              135 ph/s  1.9x increase for someone that may have 300 peta  not looking like the numbers add up to me..

Its quite apparent this hash is mostly china hash coming online..Bitmain and some avalon most likely.. we haven't even seen the full effects of what bitfury will bring (if they dont bring to table like they say then maybe we will hit a slow period of rise till halving or at least i hope).. So id say double digit increases will be the norm?? rather than the exception for quite some time. Maybe not all thru to halving but many months yet.. if it wasnt for kano pool id be out of mining already running s3's and s4's.

So i wrote this yesterday and waited to post.. Looks like they have kept things running strong.. What i do like about what i see on http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png is we havent surged on the 8 hour past that 1.3 peta mark.. So this could again be a bit of good network luck along with another 10 % of hash that still needs to be accounted for... I really am starting to think the on/off cycle was not to trigger bitcoind warning system about producing over 48 blocks within 4 hours*(since it was coming from china the next headline would most likely would have been that china was attacking the network!).. Imagine what it could have done had they just turned on 51% of the network all at once (280-300 block days??) Greedy china takes our jobs and our bitcoin.. lets hope they dont decide to come for debt repayment any time soon    I always did like the story of the world being in over 50 trillion in debt. but the question is to whom is it owed?  https://www.facebook.com/notes/positive-money-uk/if-all-the-nations-of-the-world-are-in-debt-who-are-they-in-debt-to/190689830985039/  About time we just go to a resource based economy and use the blockchain as a ledger of ownership going forward.(im hopeful that this is where this is ultimately heading) Just do away with money altogether.. Imagine how many bad actors in this world are only doing so in the quest for money/btc.  https://www.thevenusproject.com/resource-based-economy/

Best Regards
d57heinz

[ingiltere]

+15.0 = ingiltere

I don't like the way it's going up everytime but that's reality. Waiting for %15 diff increase with new equipment.

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in
+6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+13.1 = blindminer
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz

+16.0 = zebedee
+17.0 = ezeminer

[philipma1957]

+14.5 = d57heinz


http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=week&t=a

scrolling across that graph its quite obvious we havent even seen what bitfury can bring to the table.. Look at growth  

sept 11 2015 -    jan 17 2016  

antpool  68ph/s then  now 231 ph/s  quadrupled
f2pool    81ph/s then  now 199 ph/s  about 1.5x increase
bw.com  28ph/s ""     ""    62.7ph/s   2.25 x increase
btcchina 41ph/s ""     ""    116ph/s    2.8x increase

BITFURY  70 ph/s              135 ph/s  1.9x increase for someone that may have 300 peta  not looking like the numbers add up to me..

Its quite apparent this hash is mostly china hash coming online..Bitmain and some avalon most likely.. we haven't even seen the full effects of what bitfury will bring (if they dont bring to table like they say then maybe we will hit a slow period of rise till halving or at least i hope).. So id say double digit increases will be the norm?? rather than the exception for quite some time. Maybe not all thru to halving but many months yet.. if it wasnt for kano pool id be out of mining already running s3's and s4's.

So i wrote this yesterday and waited to post.. Looks like they have kept things running strong.. What i do like about what i see on http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png is we havent surged on the 8 hour past that 1.3 peta mark.. So this could again be a bit of good network luck along with another 10 % of hash that still needs to be accounted for... I really am starting to think the on/off cycle was not to trigger bitcoind warning system about producing over 48 blocks within 4 hours*(since it was coming from china the next headline would most likely would have been that china was attacking the network!).. Imagine what it could have done had they just turned on 51% of the network all at once (280-300 block days??) Greedy china takes our jobs and our bitcoin.. lets hope they dont decide to come for debt repayment any time soon    I always did like the story of the world being in over 50 trillion in debt. but the question is to whom is it owed?  https://www.facebook.com/notes/positive-money-uk/if-all-the-nations-of-the-world-are-in-debt-who-are-they-in-debt-to/190689830985039/  About time we just go to a resource based economy and use the blockchain as a ledger of ownership going forward.(im hopeful that this is where this is ultimately heading) Just do away with money altogether.. Imagine how many bad actors in this world are only doing so in the quest for money/btc.  https://www.thevenusproject.com/resource-based-economy/

Best Regards
d57heinz

bitfury points gear at antpool and at f2pool.

at least 100ph worth of their hash is pointed at those two pools.

[edonkey]

+13.3 = edonkey

Neither cat likes to count this high. They yearn for single digit changes.

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in
+6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz

+16.0 = zebedee
+17.0 = ezeminer

[Biodom]

OK

+15.9 = Biodom

Thanks, almost did not made an entry-this is depressing to watch.

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in
+6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+17.0 = ezeminer

[flikflak]

+12.7 = flikflak

thanks

[mavericklm]

https://blockchain.info/blocks/104.168.145.107
is this a bug?
i could speculate that f2pool, BitClub Network, BW.COM, BTCC Pool, etc are all controlled by the same ''entity''....
or they relay their info thru the node with that ip.....

LE: 6blocks in 14minutes

[adaseb]

I think all our picks are too low. Today is looking at being a +25% day.

[RichBC]

I think all our picks are too low. Today is looking at being a +25% day.

I did try and say that this Morning. 

Yes I am afraid we are on a roll... Big Day Yesterday and another coming Today. I am expecting maybe a little less than Yesterday around +24% & 179 Blocks.

Rich

I think I will be quite close.

Rich

[HerbPean]

+13.5 = HerbPean

thanks

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in
+6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+ 10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+17.0 = ezeminer

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   139,061,237,433 (+15.85%)
Adjust time:   After 1119 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):   1,049,253,108 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes
Updated:   17:30 (4.7 minutes ago)



https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   396033
Total BTC   15.151M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   131684821061 in 1119 blks
 
Network total   1169550.109 Thash/s  ====   they have a 1169ph rate!


 it is a peak but it is fucking huge

[VirosaGITS]

+16.1 = VirosaGITS

Look like we might get a true 1 Exahash with this diff increase.

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom


+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+17.0 = ezeminer

[notlist3d]

+16.4 = Notlist3d

I hope I'm far off but this one has me a little afraid.  I think it's going to hurt.  Price has been pretty steady around 380.    Hopefully we still will see a jump on value side also.

[adaseb]

Today ended at +25%. And the price so far dropped another -5%. Not looking good out there.

[Mikestang]

I hate going away from the computer a few days and coming back to see + double digit difficulty predictions, it was still single digits when I left!

I'm gonna watch this for a bit and get a late pick in I think.

[Kexkey]

+19.9 = Kexkey

I hope I'm wrong. 

Thanks!

[notlist3d]

I hate going away from the computer a few days and coming back to see + double digit difficulty predictions, it was still single digits when I left!

I'm gonna watch this for a bit and get a late pick in I think.

It's honestly scary to watch I keep thinking ok we will see the end of the double digit... and I keep being wrong.  Last period of 6 even was nice to see.  

The only thing I wonder is if Chinese holiday's will help a little looking in Febuary there is a decent amount:

(http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/china/)

Feb 7   Sunday   Spring Festival Eve   National holiday
Feb 8   Monday   Chinese New Year   National holiday
Feb 9   Tuesday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   National holiday
Feb 10   Wednesday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   Common Local holidays
Feb 11   Thursday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   Common Local holidays
Feb 12   Friday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   National holiday
Feb 12   Friday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   Common Local holidays
Feb 13   Saturday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   Common Local holidays
Feb 13   Saturday   Spring Festival Golden Week holiday   National holiday
Feb 22   Monday   Lantern Festival   Observance

[Swordsoffreedom]

+16.1 = VirosaGITS

Look like we might get a true 1 Exahash with this diff increase.

Bitcoins first Exahash that feels like something worth celebrating
(Lol how many supercomputers of data would that be worth ha-ha)
Las Vegas ? (note 2013 efficiencies would be presumed)
https://standardcrypto.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/what-does-one-exahash-look-like/

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    140,384,718,499 (+16.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1067 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,049,435,335 GH/s

that's all i got to say

[pusttiu]

+10.5 = pusttiu

[tss]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

[mwizard]

+16.5 = mwizard

Solely because 16.4% will put the hash rate over 1,000 Petahash and 16.4 is already taken.

[radiumsoup]

+18.8 = radiumsoup

been guessing too low recently, figure my guessometer needs recalibration up...that should do it.

[RichBC]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  

Well I sincerely hope you are right, as I had assumed that the major Bitfury deployment was still to happen. So 2 Big Days and I think Today will be similar, my spreadsheet saying another +24% / 179 Blocks. Leaving my pick to the last minute, which I think will be around 15:00 Tomorrow, but the scene is set....


Rich

[notlist3d]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  

Well I sincerely hope you are right, as I had assumed that the major Bitfury deployment was still to happen. So 2 Big Days and I think Today will be similar, my spreadsheet saying another +24% / 179 Blocks. Leaving my pick to the last minute, which I think will be around 15:00 Tomorrow, but the scene is set....


Rich

With price of btc this one is going to hurt I have a feeling. It could be Bitfury and like is some to a point.  I wonder if everyone see's having coming up and is getting greedy.  If they can make twice as much now as after having.... getting a miner mad and up sounds much more profitable now.

I just wish I knew if it was all Bitfury or if some other companies are making last minute grabs.  Like say Bitmain will they make a ton of S7's before having trying to cash in? Seems they would have mastered making it, and gotten cost's down as low as they can be chances are.   Hard to say but wish I knew.  Even more wish it would stop.

[adaseb]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey

[zebedee]

philipma going for the most wrong ever prize here I think.... 

[philipma1957]

philipma going for the most wrong ever prize here I think.... 

I picked it so it can't win. I would not want to take a chance from others.

This contest was not funded by me so I used to pick a real pick.

I now fund the contest so I do not really want to try to win.

[tss]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

[wlefever]

+15.5 = wlefever

Thanks!  This is depressing lol
 

[Biodom]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

[philipma1957]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

  There is no need to kill off home mining.  In fact if they do the game will fail.

Home miners are the grease in the machine.  If you live in a place that you use an electric space heater   a 1 kwatt miner is a viable option.

There is no reason to shut that off as your safety valve.

I feel the s-7   will be replaced by an s-9 that runs at .1 watts just a tad better then the bitfury gear running at .11

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey

[notlist3d]

these diff levels are going to go cray cray now.  i have second hand knowledge that the bitfury 16nm is now fully deployed by large mine farms.  only reason i say second hand knowledge is, i have not personally seen it, but a friend of mine, a real friend, in real life, not an online person or forum user, has personally seen the bitfury 16nm deployed and working in a nyc based mining facility.  the unit takes up less than 128u rack space and is hashing around 400 TH.. yes.. TH!  dump all the s5/s7 asap.. we're looking at very large jumps in difficulty coming. home mining is not dead as of yet but on its last breaths.  i am expecting 15-20%+ jumps for the next 3-4 adjustments at the least.

I assumed that Bitfury only made the chips and not any actually miners. So that NYC mining company built their own miner ?

i am not sure of the details, but yes, it is something that was built for them. the first was delivered sometime in december.

well, since this has become a discussion thread, my 2c are on bitcoin faltering if all small miners, then nodes are killed by bitfury, etc.
I, personally, don't really care about bitcoin that some corporation or even a few of those controls.

  There is no need to kill off home mining.  In fact if they do the game will fail.

Home miners are the grease in the machine.  If you live in a place that you use an electric space heater   a 1 kwatt miner is a viable option.

There is no reason to shut that off as your safety valve.

I feel the s-7   will be replaced by an s-9 that runs at .1 watts just a tad better then the bitfury gear running at .11

Bitmain is a huge mining force, and we have heard nothing about next gen.  It makes me wonder if they have it in their pocket waiting to launch, or still need R/D.  One would think they have been doing dev, and would have something.

I can see them making S7's at lower and lower price before having.   I think chances are they have perfected it as far as low cost to them, and design.  So will be interesting to watch.

[kama]

here is my prediction

+16.2 = kama

[tertius993]

+12.9 = tertius993

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey

[mavericklm]

Morning update

Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,104,050,628 (+17.55%)
Adjust time:    After 899 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,030,240,453 GH/s

Blockchain.info is saying 948PH

Status: small miners will get.....

[notlist3d]

Morning update

Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,104,050,628 (+17.55%)
Adjust time:    After 899 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,030,240,453 GH/s

Blockchain.info is saying 948PH

Status: small miners will get.....

It is almost cray the more I think about this.  We thought we had a good amount of hash out there already.  But if in one difficulty they still can do 15+ percent that is a lot of new  machines, and most likely new chips. 

And if we consider most of those are probley the big companies.  I wonder what effect it has on BTC price, as likely a lot of them sell and trade for fiat quite frequently vs holding onto coins.  I wish I could see a stat of how many coins mined in a day are sold vs held onto.

[RichBC]

Well things slowed a little Yesterday, only.... +11.8% and 161 Blocks, and the slowdown seems to have continued with Today's run rate at 7% but could just be variance as earlyish in the Day.

So picks will close some in about 12 Hours time, but as ever it's a tricky pick particularly as the run rate has just slowed.

Rich

[alh]

+14.8 = alh

What an awful prediction though......

[philipma1957]

we are now open

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.9 = Kexkey


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   141,926,336,698 (+18.24%)
Adjust time:   After 845 Blocks, About 5.0 days >>>>>>>>>>picks end at 816 get them in
Hashrate(?):   1,033,473,579 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.2 minutes
Updated:   8:25 (3.6 minutes ago)



29 blocks to go
13 blocks to go



 I will repeat there will be a winner.  I am giving it to the closest range.


 No rollovers other then if my pick of -1.2% is the winner I will roll that over.


I am maxing the prize at .2 from now on. So only 1 rollover.

[fr4nkthetank]

I'm thinking the diff increase is mostly due to the antminer s7 batch that shipped out around Jan 20th, so people got it a few days later and then turned them on.  There may still be hope. 

[DanDan]

+18.0 = DanDan

We'll set a new record maybe.

[mavericklm]

+19.5 = mavericklm

thinking about my batch 1 s7.... that ROI....

[notlist3d]

I'm thinking the diff increase is mostly due to the antminer s7 batch that shipped out around Jan 20th, so people got it a few days later and then turned them on.  There may still be hope. 

I'm not sure your talking about a lot of S7's if so.   It could also be them build more S7's to sit in spots tilll after holiday when they start shipping again.

Still not sure though, it could be next gen starting to hit.  One of these day's if not yet bitfury is going to be pumping out a lot of gear.

All I know for sure is bitwisdom looks worse and worse:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    142,496,809,802 (+18.71%)
Adjust time:    After 827 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,038,662,429 GH/s

[lanfeusst]

+18.7 = lanfeusst

[tlhIlwI]

+17.5 = tlhIlwI

[RichBC]

Can't leave this much longer, about 4 Blocks to go and I am having trouble accessing the Forum, so I hope this goes in

19.0 = RichBC


EDIT  Phew made it, Forum back here, perhaps I should not leave things so late.... Sorry for the emails Phil, but would not be the same without a pick....

[skuser]

+20.9 = skuser

[philipma1957]

picks are now closed

[philipma1957]

we are now closed

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+17.5 = tlhIlwI
+18.0 = DanDan  We'll set a new record maybe.  for highest ph yes
+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
+19.5 = mavericklm
+19.9 = Kexkey
+20.9 = skuser


 I will repeat there will be a winner.  I am giving it to the closest range.


 No rollovers other then if my pick of -1.2% is the winner I will roll that over.


I am maxing the prize at .2 from now on. So only 1 rollover.

[radiumsoup]

...
+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
...

I am giving it to the closest range.

jerks...I was set up smack in the middle of a huge 2.9% range with just a few hours to go and you guys had to spoil it

[RichBC]

...
+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
...

I am giving it to the closest range.

jerks...I was set up smack in the middle of a huge 2.9% range with just a few hours to go and you guys had to spoil it

I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? 

Rich

[mavericklm]

I hope Phil will win this one, but i also dream of having 1milion btc

[wlefever]

@philipma1957 Closest range or closest range without going over?

[Mikestang]

picks are now closed

we are now open

I think you forgot to edit out a sentence in your second post, Phil.

And damn it, I was stuck in the field all morning and didn't make it to a computer in time to guess.  Good luck, everyone, see you next round!

[radiumsoup]

I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? 

He should have gone with the 'The Price Is Right' strategy and said "What's the highest bid, Bob? 19.9? I'll go with 20.0"

[philipma1957]

I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? 

He should have gone with the 'The Price Is Right' strategy and said "What's the highest bid, Bob? 19.9? I'll go with 20.0"

okay skuser 20.9  tried to do a smart pick.

so I will top off at 21.9  above that it is a rollover.

I do believe it is fair I also think he was very close to missing cutoff .

[adaseb]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

[notlist3d]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

[Kexkey]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

[Biodom]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

this mining in exahashes makes the whole POW scheme looking silly.
Phil calculated it somewhere as a response to my post. Basically, it goes like this:
1024 PH/s are used to support just 200,000 transactions/day, which means 5.12TH/transaction a day.
So, at least one S7 costing ~$1000 (average price over last 3-4 mo) or more is used to support ONE measly transaction a day.
If this is not an overkill, then I don't know what is.

[philipma1957]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

this mining in exahashes makes the whole POW scheme looking silly.
Phil calculated it somewhere as a response to my post. Basically, it goes like this:
1024 PH/s are used to support just 200,000 transactions/day, which means 5.12TH/transaction a day.
So, at least one S7 costing ~$1000 (average price over last 3-4 mo) or more is used to support ONE measly transaction a day.
If this is not an overkill, then I don't know what is.

So lets think positive and BTC is grossly under priced.

144 blocks need to do  10,000 transactions each   this would justify the firepower we now have.

So we will crash or take off really soon. 

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.0001 would be    1btc in fees per block

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.00005 would be 0.5 btc in fees per block


without transaction growth this is simply not going to work.

[Biodom]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

this mining in exahashes makes the whole POW scheme looking silly.
Phil calculated it somewhere as a response to my post. Basically, it goes like this:
1024 PH/s are used to support just 200,000 transactions/day, which means 5.12TH/transaction a day.
So, at least one S7 costing ~$1000 (average price over last 3-4 mo) or more is used to support ONE measly transaction a day.
If this is not an overkill, then I don't know what is.

So lets think positive and BTC is grossly under priced.

144 blocks need to do  10,000 transactions each   this would justify the firepower we now have.

So we will crash or take off really soon.  

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.0001 would be    1btc in fees per block

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.00005 would be 0.5 btc in fees per block


without transaction growth this is simply not going to work.

I like you positive thinking and I agree that btc is underpriced, but we (miners) seem to have no control over this, apparently.
interesting times...so we need transactions going exponential, but they are not (at least not yet).
something is not working overall...maybe the populace is too skeptical of bitcoin.

I am fine with that, but why the heck we build up so much hashing power basically in the absence of demand.
recent increases are cringeworthy and smack of a lack of understanding how it might affect everyone.
Maybe it is a play for power on Bitfury's/Bitmain's part and we just got to be on the receiving end of what is essentially amounts to a devastation.

[notlist3d]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

this mining in exahashes makes the whole POW scheme looking silly.
Phil calculated it somewhere as a response to my post. Basically, it goes like this:
1024 PH/s are used to support just 200,000 transactions/day, which means 5.12TH/transaction a day.
So, at least one S7 costing ~$1000 (average price over last 3-4 mo) or more is used to support ONE measly transaction a day.
If this is not an overkill, then I don't know what is.

So lets think positive and BTC is grossly under priced.

144 blocks need to do  10,000 transactions each   this would justify the firepower we now have.

So we will crash or take off really soon.  

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.0001 would be    1btc in fees per block

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.00005 would be 0.5 btc in fees per block


without transaction growth this is simply not going to work.

I like you positive thinking and I agree that btc is underpriced, but we (miners) seem to have no control over this, apparently.
interesting times...so we need transactions going exponential, but they are not (at least not yet).
something is not working overall...maybe the populace is too skeptical of bitcoin.

I am fine with that, but why the heck we build up so much hashing power basically in the absence of demand.
recent increases are cringeworthy and smack of a lack of understanding how it might affect everyone.
Maybe it is a play for power on Bitfury's/Bitmain's part and we just got to be on the receiving end of what is essentially amounts to a devastation.

I still wonder if part of reason for under priced BTC is big operations dumping BTC for fiat and paying off new miners.   I think someone is adding a lot of hash and likely is selling a ton of BTC to pay for the new gear.   Which company or companies it is would be interesting to know and amounts.   

But I think big operations mining and needing fiat could be part of why btc is so under priced.    And a lot of big operations are able to sell it at that and still make big profits so I guess more power to them.

[philipma1957]

Today finished at +24%.

Nice!

 

I had a few words for it none of them were nice.  But wow if we can raise it 25 percent during this difficulty does anyone else find that scary?  That just scares me thinking about it even being possible.

This one is going to hurt.

Thinking of buying miners in the next 5 months is a crazy gambling move.  The reference points won't be the same.  A 4 TH/s miner will be considered like and S1 today.  The new chips developped by Bitfury, Bitmain and others (yes, there are more) will mark new standards.

As a miner, it's freaking me out.  The only thing we can do is accept it.  That's the evolution of mining.

The problem that worries me the most is the disagreements in the community (that includes devs, merchants, miners, etc.) about several foundamental things (including scaling).  That could have a devastating effect on BTC price and on us, miners.

this mining in exahashes makes the whole POW scheme looking silly.
Phil calculated it somewhere as a response to my post. Basically, it goes like this:
1024 PH/s are used to support just 200,000 transactions/day, which means 5.12TH/transaction a day.
So, at least one S7 costing ~$1000 (average price over last 3-4 mo) or more is used to support ONE measly transaction a day.
If this is not an overkill, then I don't know what is.

So lets think positive and BTC is grossly under priced.

144 blocks need to do  10,000 transactions each   this would justify the firepower we now have.

So we will crash or take off really soon.  

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.0001 would be    1btc in fees per block

10,000 transactions per block if each fee were 0.00005 would be 0.5 btc in fees per block


without transaction growth this is simply not going to work.

I like you positive thinking and I agree that btc is underpriced, but we (miners) seem to have no control over this, apparently.
interesting times...so we need transactions going exponential, but they are not (at least not yet).
something is not working overall...maybe the populace is too skeptical of bitcoin.

I am fine with that, but why the heck we build up so much hashing power basically in the absence of demand.
recent increases are cringeworthy and smack of a lack of understanding how it might affect everyone.
Maybe it is a play for power on Bitfury's/Bitmain's part and we just got to be on the receiving end of what is essentially amounts to a devastation.

I still wonder if part of reason for under priced BTC is big operations dumping BTC for fiat and paying off new miners.   I think someone is adding a lot of hash and likely is selling a ton of BTC to pay for the new gear.   Which company or companies it is would be interesting to know and amounts.   

But I think big operations mining and needing fiat could be part of why btc is so under priced.    And a lot of big operations are able to sell it at that and still make big profits so I guess more power to them.

They are strip mining as fast and as hard as they can. They are also selling as much gear as possible.

They see a ditch on the highway.

The 1/2 ing. So they are figuring make every fucking penny they can before the coins rewards drop.

I am willing to lose in a crash somewhat. But not more then 10k.

My limit in btc is 10k spread around .  I have 4400 in gear and 10 coins at the moment.

If buy solar gets the 60kwatt array done I will add some more gear and run it with him..

[skuser]

I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? 

He should have gone with the 'The Price Is Right' strategy and said "What's the highest bid, Bob? 19.9? I'll go with 20.0"

okay skuser 20.9  tried to do a smart pick.

so I will top off at 21.9  above that it is a rollover.

I do believe it is fair I also think he was very close to missing cutoff .

I am betting just for fun so If I should be winner I will let the prize stay in the betting fund

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,510,292,891 (+19.56%)
Adjust time:    After 721 Blocks, About 4.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,036,421,049 GH/s

Grey line goes almost horizontal. Getting to a stable place?!

Hash Rate    1,068,073,261.37 GH/s on blockchain info

I think this is more than s7. Sptech or someone else is up and running! Heard of sp50 on the market

[alh]

No offense intended, but if skuser is correct at 20.9%, then we all lose. Just scrolling back, you have to go back to August of 2014 to see one in excess of 20%. We did have a gut wrenching 18.14% change just this last December.

Since October of last year, my rough eyeball calculation puts the difficulty increase at well north of 80%. This is just brutal compared to a good 6 months of 2015. Welcome to the "ASIC arms race"!!!

 

[usenet]

The current increase in difficulty can confirm the construction of new mines and staffing new equipment. For example HAOBTC which is surely not the biggest player expanded its computing power based on Avalon 6.
At the moment we continue race befor halving. In the near future with such increase in difficulty and such investment needs we should see the rise of the BTC, I think.

[philipma1957]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die. 

[adaseb]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die. 

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

[philipma1957]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die.  

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

Hashrate is going to crash.  As wild as it may sound  the network was in good shape  with coins at 230  diff at 55 hash at 407 back in sept.

With the ½ing   coins will be at 500 or so about 2x the sept 4 price  which is break even  and hashrate will be greater then 1300 with diff over 160 that is 3x worse then sept 2015 levels

So some would think price will move to fix this I used to think it.  Not so sure since for this game to stay and work transaction need big time growth.

[adaseb]

I see a crash and a big one .  Hashrate growth  is simply far too high.

AS I type I just don't see much good news here.  The network does 150 blocks with around .3 btc in fees per block So fee generation is about 4-6 btc a day.  and of course the reward money.

Well the ½ ing comes and block reward drops to 12.5 fees are .3  we are going no where fast here.

Without sustained transaction growth we will die.  

What kind of crash? Hashrate crash or Price crash?

Hashrate is going to crash.  As wild as it may sound  the network was in good shape  with coins at 230  diff at 55 hash at 407 back in sept.

With the ½ing   coins will be at 500 or so about 2x the sept 4 price  which is break even  and hashrate will be greater then 1300 with diff over 160 that is 3x worse then sept 2015 levels

So some would think price will move to fix this I used to think it.  Not so sure since for this game to stay and work transaction need big time growth.

Back in 2014, the hashrate never really crashed. It had like 1 negative difficulty period and the rest were flat.  I see the price crashing but not the difficulty.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    144,159,267,633 (+20.10%)

[Tmdz]

Were about at 20% but f it why stop there lets go for 50% or 100% increase, lets make halving seem like a joke to these increases!

Ok that was a little sarcastic

[skuser]

Effect of 50% difficulty growth and bitcoin reward halving is the same so basically with this diff jump we will be experiencing reward halving which just took one month to happen.

[ingiltere]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

[d57heinz]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

This is exactly why i didnt buy s7.. I knew what was coming.. We didnt see any significant gains in difficulty when we went to s5  or .5 w/ghs.. so i knew something big was about to happen.. What i think will go down is the large farms in china only sell what they have to to keep the machines on.. Saving the rest.> If price doesnt go up or starts to drop they will just dump it.. As they can be profitable down to 80 $ or less.. Hell they will prolly mine at a loss just to push everyone out that built this from the ground up just to take it over.. Like ive said before its no wonder satoshi left.. Would love to see the conversation that he had with core devs upon his departure.. What was the real reasons???.. anyway i dont see a hashrate crash at all. since us little guys dont even make up 10 % of the network.. It will most likely be a price crash.. And soon i fear.. Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants for months/years to come!  Btc wont be immune to this!

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

More than %20 diff rise, all small-and-average-miners will eventually bankrupt from this mining game.
It's only profitable if you sell mining devices, not if you use them.

This is exactly why i didnt buy s7.. I knew what was coming.. We didnt see any significant gains in difficulty when we went to s5  or .5 w/ghs.. so i knew something big was about to happen.. What i think will go down is the large farms in china only sell what they have to to keep the machines on.. Saving the rest.> If price doesnt go up or starts to drop they will just dump it.. As they can be profitable down to 80 $ or less.. Hell they will prolly mine at a loss just to push everyone out that built this from the ground up just to take it over.. Like ive said before its no wonder satoshi left.. Would love to see the conversation that he had with core devs upon his departure.. What was the real reasons???.. anyway i dont see a hashrate crash at all. since us little guys dont even make up 10 % of the network.. It will most likely be a price crash.. And soon i fear.. Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants for months/years to come!  Btc wont be immune to this!

Best Regards
d57heinz

Man that is so very gloom and doom.

    I can give two shits about the world of btc  in the sense it can bust And I will have had a lot fun not losing a lot of $.

But Dark days ahead for the earth and its inhabitants

 is really hard to read.




 Don't forget Donald Trump will be the next prez  he will build The USA a wall and make it great again!  So how can dark days be ahead for us?     < heavy sarcasm 

[Mikestang]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

[philipma1957]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

Did you ever see an old nature show about lemmings jumping off cliffs?

I am as bullish as the next  guy about BTC  but I do not see any sense to the growth of hash at this time.

If It crashes today I would be at a 7k  loss maybe a little more or less.

I will mine and see what happens.

[radiumsoup]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

When it comes down to it, after the halving, the continuing success of bitcoin is going to require one of the following two things (or a combination, I suppose) :

A. Sellers of bitcoin covering hard fiat costs (that's the mega miners/manufacturers) must become unwilling to sell their mined bitcoin at the current price, lowering supply
2. More non-miners must be willing to buy bitcoin on the open market, raising demand

Either way, the price of bitcoin must go up so the mega-miners will continue to do better than break even. If neither of those things happen, then the miner-manufacturers will necessarily have to scale back their operations - at least to the extent that their bitcoin reserves can support them - just to keep from folding, and the hashrate will drop (or, at minimum, flatline.) See: almost all of 2015 until the .25w asics were deployed at scale.

In short, the market will stabilize as it grows, so don't panic, think long term, and as always, don't play with your mortgage money.

This conversation happened before 4 years ago, and it will happen again 4 years from now. The difference today from 4 years ago is that we have some perspective from the first halving (the sheer panic of the unknown was palpable last time), and next time we'll have the perspective of two halvings to look back on.

[philipma1957]

20% a year ago would have been a huge amount of new hardware, but 20% today?!  I don't even know what to say, other than I do not see how the value of bitcoin and the halving can support this continued network growth.

When it comes down to it, after the halving, the continuing success of bitcoin is going to require one of the following two things (or a combination, I suppose) :

A. Sellers of bitcoin covering hard fiat costs (that's the mega miners/manufacturers) must become unwilling to sell their mined bitcoin at the current price, lowering supply
2. More non-miners must be willing to buy bitcoin on the open market, raising demand

Either way, the price of bitcoin must go up so the mega-miners will continue to do better than break even. If neither of those things happen, then the miner-manufacturers will necessarily have to scale back their operations - at least to the extent that their bitcoin reserves can support them - just to keep from folding, and the hashrate will drop (or, at minimum, flatline.) See: almost all of 2015 until the .25w asics were deployed at scale.

In short, the market will stabilize as it grows, so don't panic, think long term, and as always, don't play with your mortgage money.

This conversation happened before 4 years ago, and it will happen again 4 years from now. The difference today from 4 years ago is that we have some perspective from the first halving (the sheer panic of the unknown was palpable last time), and next time we'll have the perspective of two halvings to look back on.

I am keeping the 4 avalon6's  and mining them.  I cashed some coins so that if coins crash I can buy them at a cheaper price.

I kept some coins so that if coins go Higher I can cash them at a high price.

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

[d57heinz]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

No but i know the right places to look


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iAIQ1Ixl-Bitcoin-6-weeks-of-distribution-at-430-now-headed-lower/    push the play button on the graph to see how well this was predicted.. and just how much more to go

best regards
d57heinz

[Biodom]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

I have an even better one:
https://youtu.be/2RJH7GdvjP0?t=55

[adaseb]

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

I have an even better one:
https://youtu.be/2RJH7GdvjP0?t=55

LOL !

[HerbPean]

I like to see the "I knew it was comming"

You can't predict what will happen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GZAGIqRwVA

No but i know the right places to look


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iAIQ1Ixl-Bitcoin-6-weeks-of-distribution-at-430-now-headed-lower/    push the play button on the graph to see how well this was predicted.. and just how much more to go

best regards
d57heinz

I don't give a damm about Tim's prediction. Who the hell is that guy anyway ?

I just never take a decision simply based on a pure graphic/mathematics speculation. Whatever if he's been right in the past.

I like to see people speculate and been wrong or good. There is line that I do not prefer to cross and that is mixing a bunch of speculation into 3 sentence and sounds like the end of the fucking universe is about to hit the door and based on what ? More speculating stuff ?

It always all good until it fails you.

[adaseb]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

[edonkey]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

[notlist3d]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

I believe it's 10k a day to which is important.   And buy back depends on verification level, it can be from instant to day's on timeframe to get coins.

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

I believe it's 10k a day to which is important.   And buy back depends on verification level, it can be from instant to day's on timeframe to get coins.

I can sell up to 50k and buy up to 10k but that is all with a 5 day delay.  Instant I can buy  1k.

No instant sales no matter how low.

I have been with them for about 2 years

[alh]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

[edonkey]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

Phil do you use Coinbase to sell your coins? If so, do you use their exchange or just your account (and whatever rate they provide at that moment)?

I'm just curious because so far I've never sold any coin. But I'm thinking about it now...

I sell them on coinbase directly to my bank.

you will need to give a real id to sell like that. and keep sales under 10k

Thanks Phil. That's pretty straightforward. I'm already cleared with Coinbase's ID requirements.

Note that I was thinking about selling anyway, but not in anticipation of some sort of crash. My issue is that I bought into batch 1 S7s. They were so expensive in BTC terms that the only ROI that I can see is in fiat.

At this stage my S7s have earned about 75% of ROI in fiat terms in 129 days. That's largely due to the price increase since I bought these.

Whereas I'm only 47% ROI in pure BTC terms. At the current difficulty, I'm still 205 days from a BTC ROI. With the insane difficulty increases this effectively equates to 'never'. These early S7s were always a long shot due to the halving, but now it's basically impossible.

The only way to get a return is a combination of selling BTC and selling the S7s, at an opportune time.

Man, life was much simpler in the good ole S3 and SP20E days. Those ROI'd in pure BTC terms in no more than 120 days. By the time I sold them, I more than doubled my BTC investment.

I can see a not-too-distant future where all I'll have is a pair of Sidehack Compac sticks, just to keep my hand in...

[philipma1957]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

blocks need to increase in size so that transactions grow in size.  not in btc size just more transactions.

growth is crazy.. I started in 2012  the network was 20th   right now I am mining 24th in my house  so in 3 years and 6 months we went from 20 th to 1050 ph.

this is 51,000 x the hash.  and transactions have not grown any where near this

and july 2012 transactions are 25,000 a day that is 8x 




 https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


 so hash is 51,000x   transactions are 8x   blocks did a ½ in reward  and price is up 40x

so 40x 8 =  320x    vs 51,000x       that is so fucking lopsided it is nuts.
 = 





I left out the ½ ing of 2012 and the one on the way  which make the

320 to 51,000     2x worse   now  so 160 to 51,000   this is 340 to 1 now ,   but what about power ahh I could spend 200 watts for 1 gh using a gpu  now I can spend .25 watts a gh and that is

800 to one so we are doing better once power factors in.

actually  we are a better off right now then we were in july 2012 when I join the game.

but it is late and the math could be wrong.   and I was not doing to well back in 2012 at this game.

[notlist3d]

I think the old adage "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is as important as ever.

While I don't subscribe to "doom and gloom" scenario for life in general, it's difficult to see how BTC transaction fees can support the current BTC mining infrastructure in 20 years. In electricity costs alone, the current "transaction processing" costs are just way too high.

This will become more evident this summer, and even more so in 4 more years (roughly).

If a transaction fee is say .001 (which I think is high), then you would need 1000 packed into a block to equal 1 BTC right? The costs to do that are pretty staggering right now. While I expect we'll get more efficient equipment over 20 years, I am afraid that difficulty adjustments will negate a good deal of that. I expect that for BTC to survive long term its price will have to increase substantially, AND we'll need a massive shake out in mining infrastructure to allow difficulty to fall. How many TH/s do we need to adequately provide an accurate and complete record of transactions?

What's interesting is that for most other forms of currency, there isn't a strict accounting of what the costs of supporting it are. Bitcoin makes that much more obvious.

blocks need to increase in size so that transactions grow in size.  not in btc size just more transactions.

growth is crazy.. I started in 2012  the network was 20th   right now I am mining 24th in my house  so in 3 years and 6 months we went from 20 th to 1050 ph.

this is 51,000 x the hash.  and transactions have not grown any where near this

Part of it I find cray is that this growth of 20+ were looking  at one difficulty change. If someone would have told me in October difficulty would have moved so quick like it is not I would have not have believed it.

I think this many high difficulty changes will change things.   Exactly what will happen.... I'm not sure.  But something will happen with changes like this.   Just the price of gear unless some new chips is going to go down quickly.  And what else will be interesting to see.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    145,442,382,989 (+21.17%)
Adjust time:    After 532 Blocks, About 3.0 days

Race!!! for the halving!
And we are fucked!

[tss]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

[RichBC]

So another Big day Yesterday +24.3% 179 Blocks. It's a bit too early to judge but am afraid to say that Today looks like a big step up again. The Daily rate after 6 Hours is showing +50%. If this is even half right Today will be some sort of record...


Rich

[notlist3d]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

I don't think it's a joke. We are in for either a horrible time for miners, or a skyrocket on value.    No one can predict which one it will be.

The big operations have the lowest electricity prices (for the most part).   And the best prices in gear, if not tied in with maker of miner.    These miners will have to dump BTC for fiat to cover operation.  They have to sell no matter price, and they can do it at lower price then most home/hobby miner.

Add the not knowing of having to this..... it's hard to say whats going to happen in next months.   

[RichBC]

  These miners will have to dump BTC for fiat to cover operation.  They have to sell no matter price, and they can do it at lower price then most home/hobby miner.

Add the not knowing of having to this..... it's hard to say whats going to happen in next months.   

Looking on the bright side..... given the amount of BTC they must be dumping every Day I guess you could say the price is holding up very well...


Rich

[skuser]

I don't see much correlation between price and hashrate. Sure hashrate follows price but not vice versa. What we are seeing is just info that costs of hardware producers are much lower than previously thought so they can either ROI before halving or the new tech plugged in has so low consumption it will survive halving.
Number of daily mined bitcoins is fixed and represents about 2-3% daily traded volume on exchanges so I don't think this would be the reason of price crash.

What I can imagine as a reason of price crash after halving is that this hardware deployed was meant to be shortlived just to squeeze every penny from this opportunity which would mean brutal slowing down of block generation thus making the network unusable for payments. And I doubt chinese guys care about lofty ideas.

[usenet]

I do not see now reason to drop below $300.
I see the madness in China. New equipment on credit. If dark vision would come true all lose really big money. Usually darkest visions do not work - the most optimistic as well.

[tertius993]

I did a fairly quick bit of analysis of blocks, transactions, fees, etc.

Looking over the last 1,000 blocks:

a. there were an average of 1,155 transactions per block
b. each block averaged 655kB in size
c. average transaction fees were 0.25948682 per block
d. which is 0.000224744 per transaction

The maximum number of transactions per block seems to be around 3300 - only two blocks exceeded this number, so I took 3300 is a practical maximum.

In order for the transaction fees to fully replace the 12.5 BTC reduction at the halving:

1. on current Tx volumes, the fee will have to rise to an average of 0.010826382/Tx (a 48-fold increase)
2. transactions increase to the maximum (3300) and the fees rise to an average of 0.003787879/Tx (a 16-fold increase)

If the fees/transaction don't rise, then the transaction volume would have to increase to 55,000 transactions per block (same 16-fold increase)

Alternatively, if neither the fees (in BTC) nor the volumes increase, then the value of BTC will need to rise to $734, in order for the block reward of 12.5 plus the fees to have the same total dollar value as today.

(I used a BTC price of $375 for the calculations).

Realistically transactions won't rise just because of the halving, it's largely external factors that will drive more transactions.

I can't see fees rising that much - a 16-fold increase at current prices would mean each transaction cost around $1.40.

So either the price of BTC goes up or the miners are going to make less - but similarly I can't see that a (potential) reduction in supply of 1800 coins a day would drive such an increase.



 

[usenet]

I think similar. It's nice that you did this calculation. In anticipation of the growth of the BTC is followed a very rapid increase in computing power.
Someone who uses technical analysis (Elliott Wave Principle) also can determine the BTC/USD targets.

[adaseb]

What the guy said a few posts back is correct.

There is ABSOLUTELY no correlation between hashrate/difficulty and BTC price. IF there is any correlation is very small amount.

Look at 2014 year. The price went from like $1000 all the way down to $150 and difficulty skyrocketed about 4000% that year and what happened with the hashrate? It had one negative week and then remained stable.

I don't think price will crash but it might dip into the $300 area or so. And I don't think the hashrate will decrease.

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

growth is stupid high.  so something has to give.

I am positioned  in this manner.

I sold 6 coins

I kept 6 coins

I have 4 avalon6's

If coins crash to 250 I will buy 9 coins with my sales from yesterday.

If coins go to 600  I will sell the six on hand.
Keeping my mining earnings from the 4 avalon6's

If coins stay between 250 to 600

 I will  do no buys or sales, but keep the mining earnings.

So I have multiple moves to do.



 My analysis shows us to have a transaction growth issue. Which is yet to be dealt with.

transactions were 25,000 a day in July 2012  they are now 200,000


     so we went up 8x  most people do not remember  transaction fees were 0.0010  and are now 0.0002
so the actual transactions can be adjusted from 200,000 to 40,000
yes coins are not 10 usd they are 360 usd , but we simply are not growing transaction wise.

So a big move is going to happen since growth is simply crazy.

[notlist3d]

Price went up from around 370 to 386 today.  So nothing massive but still a jump up.

Bitwsidom still high:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,985,324,370 (+19.95%)
Adjust time:    After 460 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    1,035,384,430 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.2 minutes

[adaseb]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

[philipma1957]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

well this website has us at 138904359120/120033340651 = 1.1572   that converts to 15.721%  with 414 blocks left


 https://bitcoincharts.com/   


Blocks   396738
Total BTC   15.168M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   138604359120 in 414 blks
 
Network total   939999.756 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.56 / 548 s

[notlist3d]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

well this website has us at 138904359120/120033340651 = 1.1572   that converts to 15.721%  with 414 blocks left


 https://bitcoincharts.com/   


Blocks   396738
Total BTC   15.168M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   138604359120 in 414 blks
 
Network total   939999.756 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.56 / 548 s

It feels weird to hope for 15... a solid double digit number.   Just much higher then I like.  Bitcoin did rise a tad today, not to point we need with jumps like this.  But I guess take what positives we can have.

Tonight not a ton of time left bitwisdom is at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,018,016,533 (+19.15%)
Adjust time:    After 385 Blocks, About 2.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,067,233,187 GH/s

[mavericklm]

Adjust time:    After 381 Blocks, About 2.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,067,439,254 GH/s

Looks like it's calming the fuck down!

Chinese Spring Festival holiday! Yeeeeeeeeeee

And after that comes the armagedon!

[RichBC]

Thought I would share the graph I have been working on.



The scale on the top is Blocks and the Yellow vertical lines the Days.

The Blue Line is the cumulative Run rate for the Period read from the RH scale and at the moment is at +17.32%

The Purple line is the Daily Run rate read from the LH scale, currently at  +38% It is reset each day which gives some initially wild points as there are so few points. The yellow triangle marks the final Daily rate.

Beyond the short vertical line is a projection. We have the rest of Today, Tomorrow and a short run on Sunday to finish the period. Do not take much notice of the projection as it's set to finish at +19%  which is still possible....


Rich

[adaseb]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

[tss]

looks like we may end up at over 20%..... wish i was part of this one.  totally forgot about it when picks closed.

[adaseb]

Its bad, it will probably end at +20% and in 10 days it will go up at least +10%. I don't think it will stabilize at +20% and remain constant.

[philipma1957]

Its bad, it will probably end at +20% and in 10 days it will go up at least +10%. I don't think it will stabilize at +20% and remain constant.

no  I think this is good.  it has to be a new mine .

I really think next jump will be very small.

this adjustment had no swings like the others.

making it very likely a big mine opened.

We will see really soon .

[ezeminer]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

So if it is a new farm being added, bitfury or spondoolies?

who would you place your bets on?

[philipma1957]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

So if it is a new farm being added, bitfury or spondoolies?

who would you place your bets on?

I don't know but the dragon chip build the A1's is a third possibility.

we came into this adjustment with 859 ph  and we are leaving with over 1000ph  this is a 18 to 21 %

and more then 160ph 

210  s-7's =  1 ph

2100 s-7's = 10 ph

21,000 s-7's = 100 ph

35,000 s-7's = 160 ph.

my guess is a big deployment of  sp50's and of A1 dragon chip company = Innosilcon (sp)

a 160ph deployment needs to be a big farm as bitmaintech did not sell 35,000 s-7's
or 30,000 s7's along with avalon selling 6,000 avalon6's

Have to hope it is a big farm and we go flat in diff.

[alh]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

[philipma1957]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

could be you are correct.  It is   hard to tell since most all big guys only tell ½ or less of what they have planned.

[ezeminer]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

could be you are correct.  It is   hard to tell since most all big guys only tell ½ or less of what they have planned.

Those darn secretkeepers. We just want to know the sexy machines they have, that's all.

[philipma1957]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

could be you are correct.  It is   hard to tell since most all big guys only tell ½ or less of what they have planned.

Those darn secretkeepers. We just want to know the sexy machines they have, that's all.

yeah it is annoying..    waiting for some news on what was deployed.

I had to ability to do 1 sp50 no deal. was told no.

I have 4 avalon 6's

I have 1 s-7

The solar project will most likely have  2 s-7's and 4 avalon 6's to start.

We have 20kwatts in psu's
 which is in excess of the first stage of the solar project.

We will most likely employ  10 k watts in miners to start.

But if I had a commitment for gear like the sp50 I would have pushed for buysolar to build the array quicker.

So I am back to square one on gear purchases.

[alh]

One small benefit to this: We no longer hear "It's only variance" 

We had variance during the first 6-8 months of 2015. Since November we've had a sustained, relentless increase in network hash rate that isn't likely to go away soon. If we are really lucky we'll stop the sustained increases and encounter "variance" again. I personally don't think that will happen until June at the earliest.  It will be interesting to see if there is some kind of rush to "sell your mining hardware" before it takes a hit in resale value as a result of the halving.

"May you live in interesting times"

[mwizard]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

could be you are correct.  It is   hard to tell since most all big guys only tell ½ or less of what they have planned.

Those darn secretkeepers. We just want to know the sexy machines they have, that's all.

It is not 21 Inc.  Their pool is the only pool to show no hash rate increase over the last 6 months.

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=week&t=l

I suspect KNC, Bitfury and other manufactures are rolling out 16nm chips in their own mines. It is 6 months since KNC started running actual 16nm miners and I doubt the other manufacturers have been standing still.

[adaseb]

Record Shattering Day Today we finished off at over 187 Blocks found in the last 24 hours.

Pretty much sets us at +30% with no end in sight anytime soon.

Maybe some miners will turn off their S5/SP20 tomorrow and we'll see a slowdown.

[Russtie Beerkan]

Difficulty has been rising for many terms now... Wonder how long it'll be for the next decrease. Will it take a price drop for it to happen?

[philipma1957]

we are now closed

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+17.5 = tlhIlwI
+18.0 = DanDan  We'll set a new record maybe.  for highest ph yes+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
+19.5 = mavericklm
+19.9 = Kexkey
+20.9 = skuser


 I will repeat there will be a winner.  I am giving it to the closest range.


 No rollovers other then if my pick of -1.2% is the winner I will roll that over.


I am maxing the prize at .2 from now on. So only 1 rollover.


current numbers are

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   143,174,930,210 (+19.28%)
Adjust time:   After 219 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):   1,078,637,021 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.2 minutes
3 blocks: 24.4 minutes
6 blocks: 48.9 minutes
Updated:   20:5 (4.5 minutes ago)


the bold color numbers are close and stand a chance.

https://bitcoincharts.com/      they are at 17.60%


Blocks   396933
Total BTC   15.173M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   141163757449 in 219 blks
 
Network total   1052549.273 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.35 / 490 s





Blocks   396933
Total BTC   15.173M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   141163757449 in 219 blks
 
Network total   1052549.273 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.35 / 490 s

[alh]

Yeah, I think all of us that are below 17% are out of luck:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    142,421,502,157 (+18.65%)
Adjust time:    After 174 Blocks, About 23.7 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,083,756,870 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.2 minutes
3 blocks: 24.4 minutes
6 blocks: 48.9 minutes
   
Updated:    1:40 (7.3 minutes ago)

BTCQuote: $373

[RichBC]

Record Shattering Day Today we finished off at over 187 Blocks found in the last 24 hours.

Pretty much sets us at +30% with no end in sight anytime soon.

Maybe some miners will turn off their S5/SP20 tomorrow and we'll see a slowdown.

Yes a punishing day Yesterday, however I think some of that was variance & there is a heavy duty correction taking place this Morning. Only a few blocks in so too early to tell but the run rate Today only 18%. However it is climbing so who knows, and I would expect "them" to want as much Hash as possible to be up and running before the Holiday?


Rich

[skuser]

6 blocks between 396986-396991 mined within 11 minutes just now, that doesn't look like correction. It's insane (variance factor included  )

[RichBC]

6 blocks between 396986-396991 mined within 11 minutes just now, that doesn't look like correction. It's insane (variance factor included  )

Yes agreed and I will stick to my underlying theory for this period, that they will be pushing to have as much Hash as possible up and running before CNY, so hopefully we may see less added in the next period? Trouble is there is just too much in the way of new and better Miners around at the moment and the strong underlying pressure of the Halving driving the rise....... Sigh.

Rich

[philipma1957]

6 blocks between 396986-396991 mined within 11 minutes just now, that doesn't look like correction. It's insane (variance factor included  )

Yes agreed and I will stick to my underlying theory for this period, that they will be pushing to have as much Hash as possible up and running before CNY, so hopefully we may see less added in the next period? Trouble is there is just too much in the way of new and better Miners around at the moment and the strong underlying pressure of the Halving driving the rise....... Sigh.

Rich

I have to think this is a mad push and that next jump will be under 5%.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   143,336,435,402 (+19.41%)
Adjust time:   After 120 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,093,126,487 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.1 minutes
3 blocks: 24.2 minutes
6 blocks: 48.4 minutes
Updated:   8:20 (1.6 minutes ago)

[mavericklm]

I see it less pink: arms race for the last blocks of 25btc!

Bw will come out, sp50 is on the road, bitfury soon soon

....

I'm out of mining for some time

[d57heinz]

I see it less pink: arms race for the last blocks of 25btc!

Bw will come out, sp50 is on the road, bitfury soon soon

....

I'm out of mining for some time

Yep you and me both.. this last jump put the nail in the coffin for me and my farm.  Ill be shutting down after this jump.. may see if kano can hit couple more but its over for me.. I cant believe that in 8 months time ive went from 1 ghs scrypt and 80 ths sha   to 0!.. Its sad this day and age soon as big money sees an opportunity to make more(like they freaking need it the greedy fu^&s) they will just drive us little guys out.. It happens now with every industry .. every company.. the capitalist system is about to go "tits up" as my dad would say:).  You cant have just a few minority controlling all the worlds money and resources.. Any new invention or idea that would affect them in making more money they will just squash like a bug.. imagine a world where you just dont even bother with attempting what might be a great idea ... because you know that if it interferes with the status quo you will be squashed like a bug.(again one of teh reason i like bitcoin so damn much.. it challenged the status quo.. but now china is taking it over as well as big money investors sooooo how is this any different than the system we have now.. If you divide btc down to the bits.. we have 21 mil X 99,999,999  if at one point in time .00000001 equals 1 bit and we say a apple is 2 bits for example then the guy with 1 btc now has in the future 100 mill bits.. Now think about the amount china and the other large holders will have UGHHHH!!! ) . at some point us simpletons have to start standing up for whats good for the world.. Not just the few!.. Anyway rant over.. ill be stepping away from all this till after the halving.. Im personally just fed up with the whole fu^%ing thing.  And its def affecting my attitude.. sorry if i offended anyone with my rants and what nots.. Nothing personal towards anyone here.. Personally i'm just over it.. China can f*^&ing have for all i give a shit!  As im sure thats the plan anyway.. Ill be damn if i trust a system based outta china FFS. Now on with the task of dumping all my hw on ebay.. going to fire sale this shit.. starting out at .99c and going to let the market decide what its all worth to them.. The psu might be a diff story.. I have over 100 psu's of 850 gold and 1000 gold.  FML

Best Regards and peace be with you all.. I wish you all the best of luck and i hope you all prosper in this.
Doug
d57heinz

[adaseb]

Today is looking bad also, its only 75% of the day so far and we have achieved +31% so far. Doesn't look like it will stop at +20%, this will go on for the next few weeks before stabalizing.

[philipma1957]

Today is looking bad also, its only 75% of the day so far and we have achieved +31% so far. Doesn't look like it will stop at +20%, this will go on for the next few weeks before stabalizing.

Well this is the best jump of all the ones we had.  It is  a really flat jump. by this  i mean  every day is up and around 168-175

My guess is we do 20% and then 3-5% on the next one.

[valkir]

Today is looking bad also, its only 75% of the day so far and we have achieved +31% so far. Doesn't look like it will stop at +20%, this will go on for the next few weeks before stabalizing.

Well this is the best jump of all the ones we had.  It is  a really flat jump. by this  i mean  every day is up and around 168=175

My guess is we do 20% and then 3-5% on the next one.

lets hope so. 3-5% could help us to stabilize. 

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

look here pulled from above:

See the big jump on Jan 22nd

 it shows me a big ass farm was put on line

the farm is pretty stable and we have not grown much since Jan22nd
full size
http://imgur.com/SIzzkJe

 

[RichBC]

Aaarg just as you thought it could not get much worse, someone has plugged up some more Miners and we have ended the Day at +38.89% & 200 Blocks... Run rate this period at +19.56% so unless things back off a bit we will end up even higher than that.....


Rich

[adaseb]

Aaarg just as you thought it could not get much worse, someone has plugged up some more Miners and we have ended the Day at +38.89% & 200 Blocks... Run rate this period at +19.56% so unless things back off a bit we will end up even higher than that.....


Rich

Its a sign that this isn't the worse to come. Most likely next diff increase will be at least another +10%

[philipma1957]

Aaarg just as you thought it could not get much worse, someone has plugged up some more Miners and we have ended the Day at +38.89% & 200 Blocks... Run rate this period at +19.56% so unless things back off a bit we will end up even higher than that.....


Rich

Its a sign that this isn't the worse to come. Most likely next diff increase will be at least another +10%

yeah that jump to 200 is a bad sign before that one we were at 189 for a high this jump.

but if the 200 is the true number and not the 189 we are in for +10 next time.

right now with 21 blocks to go look like skuser may win contest..  I set a top cut off 1 higher and I think he picker 20.9  I do not think we can get over 21.9

so he is in good shape. if we slow a little it still could go low enough for the others

+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
+19.5 = mavericklm
+19.9 = Kexkey
+20.9 = skuser

[philipma1957]

Kexkey looks like the lock of the century to win .

IT WOULD TAKE A 2 hour block for him to lose.

I think.

[zebedee]

Haha, 20.06%, pipped 20%.

[philipma1957]

Haha, 20.06%

That makes Kexkey a winner  as this was a no rollover .

and he is closest.

@ Kexkey please give a btc addy for payment.


we are now down to .8 btc to give away in the following adjustments.

[zebedee]

Haha, 20.06%

That makes Kexkey a wiiner

Can we go back to exact only wins?  Nearest winning makes people game where they place their bets to cut others off and grab ranges.

[philipma1957]

Haha, 20.06%

That makes Kexkey a wiiner

Can we go back to exact only wins?  Nearest winning makes people game where they place their bets to cut others off and grab ranges.

we are at that  rule for 1 rollover.

Once we go to .2 no rollovers .

the only rollover at .2 is lowest pick and highest pick can not be off by 1

say 21 is top pick he tops out at 22

say -2 is low pick he bottoms out at -3


 as we had a lot of issues when we were at .3 and .4   rewards.  I caught at least 3 or 4 fake entries when prize got high

[zebedee]

Haha, 20.06%

That makes Kexkey a wiiner

Can we go back to exact only wins?  Nearest winning makes people game where they place their bets to cut others off and grab ranges.

we are at that  rule for 1 rollover.

Once we go to .2 no rollovers .

the only rollover at .2 is lowest pick and highest pick can not be off by 1

say 21 is top pick he tops out at 22

say -2 is low pick he bottoms out at -3


 as we had a lot of issues when we were at .3 and .4   rewards.  I caught at least 3 or 4 fake entries when prize got high

If its only purpose is to keep the reward from getting to big, just cap it at 0.2; no-one wins that period and the pot stays the same.  Better than nearest wins IMO

[skuser]

I think the nature of this betting game has so high level of probability (or variance if you want) that sticking to exact number to win a prize could cause to have no winner for unwanted amount of periods. I think it's better fun if there is always some winner.

[mavericklm]

Congratz Kexkey!
Feeling like a baby with a tit dangling all day in front of him, but no luck

[RichBC]

Well done to kexkey. Thought I was going to be close but saw it drifting ever higher over the last 24 Hrs.

Rich

[Last of the V8s]

20% bleeeah . two thirds of my miners now mothballed
remaining third only economic for heat

[mavericklm]

incomiiiiiiiiiing!

Hash Rate    1,311,024,348.94 GH/s

just a spike? or not.....

[philipma1957]

I think the nature of this betting game has so high level of probability (or variance if you want) that sticking to exact number to win a prize could cause to have no winner for unwanted amount of periods. I think it's better fun if there is always some winner.

We did allow endless rollovers  and it attracted a lot of scamming at the .3btc and the .4 btc levels.


I think 1 rollover and the lowball highball limits once the rollover stops is the best I can do.

And WTF its a free shot at coin.  Plus a place to BS.

@ Kexkey   I need your btc addy to pay you



New thread here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1356223.msg13804414#msg13804414

[notlist3d]

Congratz Kexkey  on win.  And ouch this one did not go the way I was hoping it would.  +20 is higher then I like to see.

Hopefully next week will be easier, but it's starting pretty strong it looks like.

[HerbPean]

Congratz Kexkey  on win.  And ouch this one did not go the way I was hoping it would.  +20 is higher then I like to see.

Hopefully next week will be easier, but it's starting pretty strong it looks like.

doesn't look great, looks like we have another 100PH push

[vapourminer]

congrats! and i initially thought a 20+ percent guess was nuts...

[philipma1957]

congrats! and i initially thought a 20+ percent guess was nuts...

looks to be 20% again  which will kill off  some s-5's

if we do 20% to 175 a 6 cent price  for power and s-5's are about dead

[Kexkey]

lol hey thanks!  As a miner, I was hoping not to win.

Let's hope next jump will be nicer on us.

Phil, here's the address: 1BKJjXgKgUsKEsct5gUnaNXnEc6C3nqXhn

See you in next thread!

Kex

[tss]

Today is looking bad also, its only 75% of the day so far and we have achieved +31% so far. Doesn't look like it will stop at +20%, this will go on for the next few weeks before stabalizing.

Well this is the best jump of all the ones we had.  It is  a really flat jump. by this  i mean  every day is up and around 168-175

My guess is we do 20% and then 3-5% on the next one.

doubtful.. seems i've been talking about deployed hardware on deaf ears.. said this diff would be highest increase and next 3 or so diffs at the minimum will all be in the 20% range, if not higher.. who knows.

[philipma1957]

lol hey thanks!  As a miner, I was hoping not to win.

Let's hope next jump will be nicer on us.

Phil, here's the address: 1BKJjXgKgUsKEsct5gUnaNXnEc6C3nqXhn

See you in next thread!

Kex

I will pay it in the morning .

Too much food and beer watching the game.

btc sent from my coinbase just now 7:44 pm monday sorry for delay

https://blockchain.info/tx/49ae9bd61cf5b35a76b673ce0308f468037dab6d1b364db67adfaa98ff858cfe