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Author Topic: The Ethereum Paradox  (Read 84474 times)
sockpuppet1
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May 13, 2016, 08:56:29 AM
 #961

Even at $3000, mining might expand enough to marginalize China. That is a numbers question and we don't have the numbers.

Smooth I suspect you've been busy doing other s/w work lately bcz you've been quiet and also because you don't totally have your mind immersed in this right now.

At 12.5 coins per block, 75 BTC per hour, and at $3000 that would be $225,000 per hour.  At 4 cents per KWH, that is 5.6 million kilowatts. Google tells that "China's power consumption in 2015 rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier to 5.550 trillion kilowatts".

That means in your scenario, Bitcoin would only be consuming one millionth of the electrical generation capacity of China. Sorry the increase in the value of Bitcoin can't overwhelm China's ability to subsidize the electricity.

Actually it is closer to a hundredth. 5.6 gigawatts power draw run for a year is 40 TWh and China's total is around 5550 TWh/year.

Ah I misread the Google quote as "kilowatt hour" and rather it is referring to annual consumption. Still 1/100th is still a small fraction.

Either way, that's a silly analysis because we both know that most of the electricity being produced in China is actually being used for important things like actual factories and cities. Only a relatively small portion is redirected to cheap Bitcoin mining. We have no idea of the scalability of that latter portion.

Ahem. You mean 0 profit margin factories with a Minsky Moment collapse imminent. China will massively reset and realign their economy away from the over reliance on zero-profit (State subsidized) manufacturing. Full employment is no longer the egregious problem that China had to worry about in the past. China  is very much diversifying now into producing high valued services and high valued, lower volume manufacturing. An example is the new ARM-based CPUs being produced out of China.

China will have abundant power to charge to its collective and use to control anything that is important for China's Communist Party to control. And Rockefeller has been over there consulting with them. The banksters are doing very well on their plan for the new totalitarian world order.
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May 13, 2016, 09:10:33 AM
 #962


On the ASIC commodization (besides that I already pointed out the fact that it wouldn't totally level the time-to-market access and does nothing to account for free electricity charged to the collective), it appears the opposite might occur:

It will be interesting to see how this AsicBoost affair
will turn out. If Core has its way, then the signal is not
of course that patents are no-no, but, keep your
innovations hush-hush.

If Core devs start to make changes that pull the rug
under Chinese miners (they've now mentioned switch to SHA-3
couple of times), the latter can begin to support an alternative
such as Classic (or just whip up homegrown clone). If executed
skillfully, with Chinese goverment support, China may own
up Bitcoin totally before all the altcoin folks get to conf their
gpus to keccak.

It can get messy when you've got multiple centers of power locked in a
precarious balance, instead of true decentralization (if such a thing
is possible)

dev blog https://yarkol.github.io
BTC 18kHb54jqcpWEkuAkCFsGMzR6BMgYnpi2T
ProfessionalGoogler
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May 13, 2016, 09:20:26 AM
 #963


On the ASIC commodization (besides that I already pointed out the fact that it wouldn't totally level the time-to-market access and does nothing to account for free electricity charged to the collective), it appears the opposite might occur:

It will be interesting to see how this AsicBoost affair
will turn out. If Core has its way, then the signal is not
of course that patents are no-no, but, keep your
innovations hush-hush.

If Core devs start to make changes that pull the rug
under Chinese miners (they've now mentioned switch to SHA-3
couple of times), they can begin to support an alternative
such as Classic (or just whip up homegrown clone). If executed
skillfully, with Chinese goverment support, China may own
up Bitcoin totally before all the altcoin folks get to conf their
gpus to keccak.

It can get messy when you've got multiple centers of power locked in a
precarious balance, instead of true decentralization (if such a thing
is possible)



What? Ethereum devs actually - develop?
stoat
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May 13, 2016, 09:23:55 AM
 #964

So bitcoin is anti-semitic now?  Better let people know about that. 

0x8d1b4e41652eacec5715dc5c4833f6b713573de6 If you agree with me, please support a friend of mine in need.
r0ach
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May 13, 2016, 10:01:48 AM
 #965

So bitcoin is anti-semitic now?  Better let people know about that. 

When Eth pump fails, blame Hitler!

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Spoetnik
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May 13, 2016, 10:16:39 AM
 #966

Do you guys think you would support China monopolizing Bitcoin if it caused the price to go up ?
Since i would safely bet you all only care about it's FIAT market price i bet you don't care.
Who cares what is the best decision for an "adopted" and used currency ?
Vs how much profit will i make ?
(effort making code changes for profit / market value reasons -or- functionality / adoption / security etc)

Like what percentage of any of this revolves around making a better digital currency ?
Vs never ending talk about how much each BTC etc is worth in dollars.

It would have to tell ya something i think when China took over mining.
They are smarter than Americans and took over.
What position would be better ? Be the Chinese miner dumping ?
Or be the American foolish kid buying them ?

Mining operations do not run on or for idealism.
They run to make money..
so i have no doubt the majority of mined BTC from China is just dumped for real money.

America etc had it's chance but it dragged it's feat and did too little too late.
China seized power and i doubt your getting it back now.. so then what ?
What is the end game guys ? ..think about it.

FUD first & ask questions later™
sockpuppet1
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May 13, 2016, 10:21:48 AM
 #967

Shitcoiner's rule #1 of investing. If it excites you and you are not expert, then buy more because most n00bs are also not experts. If you are an expert, never invest because you will buy Monero and never see any gains.

John is a former coder of some well known p2p projects in the past.

Yes I had deduced he probably written a Bittorrent client in the past based on the way he approached designs. In any case, his technological innovations are unimpressive. We already explained that numerous times in detail.

Whether he could produce a very innovative design. I guess anything is possible.

Does it matter? Nobody is investing based on technological capability. Just buy what ever you think sounds good. It you feel technologically dazzled, your fellow n00bs will too. So buy it. Peace.
sockpuppet1
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May 13, 2016, 10:55:09 AM
 #968

Do you guys think you would support China monopolizing Bitcoin if it caused the price to go up ?

Price rise considered alone is not sufficient. If the centralized control forces you to pay 90% of your Bitcoins to the world government when ever you want to transaction them, because you must pay your fair share of socialism's bankrupt cost ($100s of trillions of unfunded social obligations owed by the bankrupt nations to their entitled citizens), then a higher price may still be a loss.
generalizethis
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May 13, 2016, 01:21:41 PM
 #969

Shitcoiner's rule #1 of investing. If it excites you and you are not expert, then buy more because most n00bs are also not experts. If you are an expert, never invest because you will buy Monero and never see any gains.

So there's this game that you can play, and in this game, you can buy stocks, housing and other asset that go up and down in value and even return interest--this game happens use Monero as its gateway currency, and if you play the game well, you exit that gateway with more Monero than you entered. If the price of Monero increases let's say 2-3 times in the year(s) you played the game, all the better.



sockpuppet1
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May 13, 2016, 01:27:28 PM
 #970

Upthread you all were talking about problems with inconsistent or other issues with floating point on hardware thus unsupported by Ethereum. Are you aware of this new technology:

http://www.johngustafson.net/unums.html
http://www.amazon.com/End-Error-Computing-Chapman-Computational/dp/1482239868/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1413144875&sr=1-1&keywords=end+of+error+gustafson

Shitcoiner's rule #1 of investing. If it excites you and you are not expert, then buy more because most n00bs are also not experts. If you are an expert, never invest because you will buy Monero and never see any gains.

So there's this game that you can play, and in this game, you can buy stocks, housing and other asset that go up and down in value and even return interest--this game happens use Monero as its gateway currency, and if you play the game well, you exit that gateway with more Monero than you entered. If the price of Monero increases let's say 2-3 times in the year(s) you played the game, all the better.

I was just playing with the irony.

Hey if Bitcoin does ever cave into centralization, and Monero is still decentralized, one might be thankful they held it instead of Bitcoin. Who can predict that. Too many unknowns ahead.
Spoetnik
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May 14, 2016, 12:54:26 AM
 #971

Well so far any REAL decentralization is just an illusion.. sadly.

Look closely and we see a controlling figure (any coin etc)
It can often be incredibly powerful and you could have huge pull
in crypto by simply having the password to the GitHub account
or have control to issue new messages / wallets or what ever for Bitcoin.

Like if we dig deep and look closely none of these coins or services are truly decentralized.
Which to me give a cloudy uncertain outlook for the future.
We can see from Crypto history big players tend to do weird things.. never know what is next.

But i have to steer clear of projects that move towards more centralization.
This means projects that are run like how ETH is or ANY IPO / ICO coin etc.
They are all a step backwards and simply out laziness.

They simply give up trying to make a better coin distributed more fairly..
then they fl0op on their back and whine that Mining *can* be exploited.
When a 100% premined coin is definitely exploitable and far more scammy and untrustworthy.
The public has made their opinion on this crystal clear too.
They are not clamoring to rush here asap to buy IPO digital pyramid scheme tokens.
On that promises of some debatably useful tech involvement.

Simply put the general public wants nothing to do with some shitty ass IPO coin.
EVEN of they try and tack on mining code later to say ohh ohhhh well it's minable "NOW"

Bitcoin BETTER do well because these Altcoins are a colossal pointless failure.
The majority have made damn sure every bit of this shit revolves are profit / greed.
That is a death sentence.
The writing is on the wall and many suspect it but can't help themselves..
They just loiter around looking to wring out the cloth for a more drops for a bit longer.

When humanity is given the chance to ruin things they do.
What i see happening here in crypto is like every other aspect of life in all of human history.
And this crypto crap in that respect is a predictable thing.

Late 2013 we had *some* people taking notice & getting curious.. you guys blew it.
You scared them all off and they are not coming back either.
SO you better fucking damn well hope Bitcoin is the miracle coin that succeeds long term.
So far none of these shitcoins matter on a global scale at all.

I don't think this can all be fixed either.
Crypto is terminal, it has cancer and not long to live before it dies into obscurity (more than now)
And it can not be fixed.
So the Crypto scene is the walking dead and the clock ticks.
Bitcoin had become more & more important.. if it fails these Alt's are going to be worthless over night.

FUD first & ask questions later™
stoat
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May 14, 2016, 01:51:22 AM
 #972

Too fucking long didnt fucking read

0x8d1b4e41652eacec5715dc5c4833f6b713573de6 If you agree with me, please support a friend of mine in need.
Sark
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May 14, 2016, 03:07:56 AM
 #973

All time transaction high for the Ethereum network today:
https://etherscan.io/charts/tx
r0ach
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May 14, 2016, 10:22:43 AM
 #974

All time transaction high for the Ethereum network today:
https://etherscan.io/charts/tx

Yea, there's lots of crazy people investing in that DAO...thing.  There's my opinion on the DAO below.  Does anyone with a D+ or higher grasp of economics actually think I'm wrong about this?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1471177.0

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BitUsher
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May 14, 2016, 12:26:16 PM
 #975

The DAO is bad for Ethereum.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/4j7bag/the_dao_is_bad_for_ethereum/

caveat emptor gentlemen.
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May 16, 2016, 03:20:48 PM
 #976

What is the status here?

VB sold
Tual changed to Slockit (the only smart contract killer app ? no complex contracts or turing complete needed)
DAO has big run. the only use case for now? Over valued by the bubble value of ETH? ( try to evalue DAO on ETH value at the time ETH was ICOed)
    What will happen if slockit gets no fund from DAO?
    What will happen if so and after they earn big bunch of money and decide to sell the GmbH for to investors for Fiat?

.....
Uffff

Carpe diem  -  cut the down side  -  be anti-fragile
A feature that needs more than one convincing argument is no and Satoshi owes me no proof.
My coding style is legendary but limited to 1MB, sorry but cannot come much over my C64, Bill Gates and Tom Bombadil
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May 16, 2016, 07:35:05 PM
 #977

Slockit (the only smart contract killer app ?

Which we explained upthread can't pass the Nash equilibrium mustard. No decentralization here folks. You might as well just use a server. There is no point nor technology at all here. It is all bullshit for gamblers. Enjoy. Buy more!

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May 16, 2016, 07:47:42 PM
 #978

Slockit (the only smart contract killer app ?

Which we explained upthread can't pass the Nash equilibrium mustard. No decentralization here folks. You might as well just use a server. There is no point nor technology at all here. It is all bullshit for gamblers. Enjoy. Buy more!

I tried not to repeat, but this all are hints to me that some top guys are cashing out and seek some more working/profitable invesments / positions for their ICOed money now....

Carpe diem  -  cut the down side  -  be anti-fragile
A feature that needs more than one convincing argument is no and Satoshi owes me no proof.
My coding style is legendary but limited to 1MB, sorry but cannot come much over my C64, Bill Gates and Tom Bombadil
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May 16, 2016, 10:26:26 PM
 #979

Slockit (the only smart contract killer app ?

Which we explained upthread can't pass the Nash equilibrium mustard. No decentralization here folks. You might as well just use a server. There is no point nor technology at all here. It is all bullshit for gamblers. Enjoy. Buy more!

I tried not to repeat, but this all are hints to me that some top guys are cashing out and seek some more working/profitable invesments / positions for their ICOed money now....

Yap that is why I wrote to the greater or lesser sage phools, "buy moar!".

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May 17, 2016, 06:09:56 AM
 #980

Eth has gone beyond all scammy comprehension when "they" (blatantly obvious the market is controlled by one single person on Poloniex) decided to attempt to pump AFTER 200,000 Eth was stolen from Gatecoin.  When a bunch of Darkcoin was stolen from C-Cex, the price dropped in half after.  The stuff they do makes no sense at all unless they're trying to raise price in order to exit before the thieves dump.

This is how I feel about Eth & Vitalik:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpkzptvDpDY


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