evolve (OP)
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January 31, 2013, 04:03:26 PM |
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I'm thinking somewhere between "greed" and "delusion"....
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Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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NamelessOne
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January 31, 2013, 04:13:55 PM |
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Well we just had media attention a couple days ago hahah.
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chmod755
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January 31, 2013, 04:39:42 PM |
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-Bernanke doubled down on money printing last December -the block reward dropped to 25 BTC per coin
The value of coins was ~11-12 USD in December - based on that we'll need to get to ~$40 before a new bubble even starts.
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evolve (OP)
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January 31, 2013, 04:48:05 PM |
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Inflation rate in jan was 1.7% (which is low)
Mining is only done by a subsection of the community (and increasingly less as the arms race builds with asics and beyond) so block rewards have negligible effect on the price IMO. (as a speculator, the block reward has no bearing on how I trade)
I think the bubble began when we broke double digits. I also think the stagnancy at $5 happened for a reason, and we will be back there by the years end.
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labestiol
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January 31, 2013, 05:12:20 PM |
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We are getting close to the transition between Stealth phase and Awareness phase. Ready for take off
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1BestioLC7YBVh8Q5LfH6RYURD6MrpP8y6
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Qoheleth
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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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January 31, 2013, 05:25:25 PM |
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If this is a bubble, I think the farthest we are is just past the "media attention" elbow. That happened a few days ago (the Chart of the Day article - our Forbes blogger doesn't count).
Then again, this might just be a rally - in which case, sure, there'll be a correction, but it probably won't follow your chart.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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FreeMoney
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Strength in numbers
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January 31, 2013, 05:29:15 PM |
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Inflation rate in jan was 1.7% (which is low)
It only measures at 1.7% because the excess isn't going in to food much yet. Is there a bitcoin in their basket?
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Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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piramida
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Borsche
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January 31, 2013, 05:31:07 PM |
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Sorry we already passed that chart two years ago. Wandering into uncharted territory to the right now...
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i am satoshi
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Le Happy Merchant
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January 31, 2013, 05:34:13 PM |
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I don't care where we are in the bubble anymore.
I have neutralized my initial investment, and I can hold my Bitcoins through whatever comes.
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mp420
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January 31, 2013, 05:59:03 PM |
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"Media attention" phase methinks. Not sure but I think the overall sentiment is very similar to what it was around late April/early May 2011. Many people were still expecting the return back to sub-$1 prices.
This time, I think highest we might go could be bit over $100, likely much lower though. The correction will be huge, of course.
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FreeMoney
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Strength in numbers
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January 31, 2013, 06:10:08 PM |
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I think the bubble began when we broke double digits. I also think the stagnancy at $5 happened for a reason, and we will be back there by the years end.
Would you be interested in a deal where you buy the right to sell coins to me for $8 each at the end of the year? I'm willing to denominate this in gold too and we can settle with coin if we both want or I can ship.
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Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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adamstgBit
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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January 31, 2013, 06:23:48 PM |
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after this bitcoin did one last dip under 1$ and then things got nuts. will the same happen with 20$? Stay tune!
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phatsphere
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January 31, 2013, 06:29:54 PM |
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I think we are a little bit left of "takeoff".
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ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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January 31, 2013, 07:39:44 PM |
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after this bitcoin did one last dip under 1$ and then things got nuts. will the same happen with 20$? Stay tune! Just saying you are missing an important detail in this chart. I'll not tell you what it is so to not to ruin the surprise.
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lucif
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Clown prophet
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January 31, 2013, 07:44:46 PM |
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vokain
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January 31, 2013, 07:58:17 PM |
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Our little community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world is lagging slightly behind at media attention
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Peter Lambert
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January 31, 2013, 08:12:47 PM |
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Our little community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world is lagging slightly behind at media attention I agree our community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world has never heard of a bitcoin, so I would put them somewhere around the middle of "stealth phase".
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Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.comThe best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
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SaintFlow
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The first is by definition not flawed.
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January 31, 2013, 08:23:02 PM |
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evolve is short thats all
charts are charts lots of them can be made market is market market is always right
and your behaviour can be influenced by charts
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don't let me make you question your assumptions
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evolve (OP)
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January 31, 2013, 08:32:06 PM |
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Would you be interested in a deal where you buy the right to sell coins to me for $8 each at the end of the year? I'm willing to denominate this in gold too and we can settle with coin if we both want or I can ship.
I'm not really interested in a Futures Contract, but there is probably a good market for them here....try the goods and services subforum, you might get some bites there. I'm in and out of the market in time to catch a crash with negligible profit losses (I stay in usd most of time) so a Futures contract wont benefit me much and doesn't mesh with my trading strategy, as I see no need to hedge.
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vokain
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January 31, 2013, 08:50:16 PM |
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