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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85742 times)
MatTheCat
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April 26, 2016, 07:43:14 PM
Last edit: April 26, 2016, 11:29:57 PM by MatTheCat
 #121

You think this because you don't understand what the words Nash equilbrium means and how it applies to currency, international trade, and governments.  If a country like China and the US trade and both have their own currency, they both constantly do currency wars, devaluing to export, etc.  The person on the losing side of the trades would eventually demand the Nash equilibrium option and force the other into it if such an option existed.  The only way such a Nash equilibrium can be formed is if no single nation has a monopoly on the currency and it's accessible to all.  The only options for this on the planet are Bitcoin and gold (not closed entropy proof of stake systems).

The fact that I don't have to send a barge of gold to China over a time span of weeks to do a payment to utilize such a Nash equilibrium means it is fundamentally an extremely valuable system when the market cap of gold is trillions and less efficient in most ways.  You do not have the computer science background to do fundamental and cost benefit analysis of these systems.

I may not understand what Nash equilibrium means, but you perhaps don't understand what money is.

It is not hard to see why little bits of shiny attractive, and rare metals might have become used as 'money', because little pieces of these metal were desirable to own, just for the sake of having them. Even in the modern era of more sophisticated forms of entertainment, I myself still enjoy owning the little bits of gold and silver that I have in my possession, and it will be kind of sad when the day comes to cash them in. But even gold and silver don't really become money, until some authority states that little metal pieces with a kings head stamped upon them, are indeed money, and that the populace better start offering up goods and services in exchange for these little pieces of metal, because the king expects taxes to be paid by every subject, using these very same coins, which his treasury has minted, and will exchange for goods and services.

Money has always required some kind of authority behind it. If that 'authority' is some Indian chief with a penchant for giant rare kinds of feathers to put in his headdress, then large fine eagle feathers are money. If some Pharoah has a hard-on for gold and silver, with which he can adourn his palace, then gold and silver is money. Money is whatever unit of exchange, a ruling authority will accept as tribute from it's subjects. In the modern day, that ultimate unit of exchange is the US Dollar. Bitcoins value, is entirely derived from it's rate of convertibility into either the USD, or any number of other fiat currencies which are ultimately backed by the US dollar. If the USD value of BTC is going up, everyone wants to be holding BTC, if it is going down, nobody wants to be holding BTC. I understand that there is value in Bitcoin in terms of the potential ease with which value (in USD) can be transferred around the world, without the need for any of the conventional banking system, and/or clearing houses, but without that convertibility into USD, Bitcoin is worthless.

Arguably, if Bitcoin grows and becomes stable enough in value, it may be passed around as a substitute for USD, and business may gladly hold any BTC they may receive (as opposed to converting it immediately to USD b4 they even recognise payment). But consider the 'Money as Debt' allegory of the goldsmith who issued claim cheques on gold stored in his vaults, only to find the towns people were making payments to each other with the claim cheques as though they were the gold itself. Under those circumstances, the goldsmith's claim cheques, were as good as gold. They were money. However, should it become known that the goldsmith's vaults are empty cos he handed it all to a foreign trader in exchange for luxurious goods, then these claim cheques become worthless. In Bitcoin's case, it won't be a lack of gold in the goldsmiths cellar, but a loss of confidence in the USD which gives Bitcoin it's value to begin with. As sick as it may sound, collapsing (non USD) currencies will prove fucking great for Bitcoin, but only so long as the USD stands. Should the USD go down (and I am not that sure that it will anytime soon, but who knows), then the goldsmith's vault is truly empty, and the good townsfolk are going to have to ask themselves the question, "what really is wealth?" Could anyone expect the poultry farmer to exchange his eggs in return for some claim cheques on wealth that is no longer in the vault? Under a USD collapse scenario, is some large oil company going to deliver oil to a customer in exchange for a number of digital tokens with no tangible value, and with no powerful entity enforcing their use? No fucking way! Only chance Bitcoin has of becoming 'money' is if turns out some entity who control a sufficient volume of raw materials, production capacity, and military might, turn around and say, "ok, don't panic! We have the bread, we have the fuel, and we have the guns, and we will see you all alright, providing you pay us with these digital tokens, which we also own 90% off, and can set the value off, and decide how many Satoshi's to give your sorry arse for your hours of daily toil".....

But whilst it is all well n good reminding myself of Bitcoin's glaring limitations that all you Bitcoin Nutters don't want to acknowledge, that don't mean that Bitcoin aint gonna pump, and dump, and then pump again, to who really knows what limits. I suspect that the upper limits of this pump will ultimately be somewhere between $850-$1000. Has Bitcoin broken out it's range, is it now once again, a trending bull? For sure! But will it come back down to flush out all the weak hands and the too late to the party leveraged longs? I sure fkn hope so, otherwise the train has left the station, and I aint on it.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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April 26, 2016, 09:20:24 PM
 #122

You think this because you don't understand what the words Nash equilbrium means and how it applies to currency, international trade, and governments.  If a country like China and the US trade and both have their own currency, they both constantly do currency wars, devaluing to export, etc.  The person on the losing side of the trades would eventually demand the Nash equilibrium option and force the other into it if such an option existed.  The only way such a Nash equilibrium can be formed is if no single nation has a monopoly on the currency and it's accessible to all.  The only options for this on the planet are Bitcoin and gold (not closed entropy proof of stake systems).

The fact that I don't have to send a barge of gold to China over a time span of weeks to do a payment to utilize such a Nash equilibrium means it is fundamentally an extremely valuable system when the market cap of gold is trillions and less efficient in most ways.  You do not have the computer science background to do fundamental and cost benefit analysis of these systems.

I may not understand what Nash equilibrium means, but you perhaps don't understand what money is.

It is not hard to see why little bits of shiny attractive, and rare metals might have become used as 'money', because little pieces of these metal were desirable to own, just for the sake of having them. Even in the modern era of more sophisticated forms of entertainment, I myself still enjoy owning the little bits of gold and silver that I have in my possession, and it will be kind of sad when the day comes to cash them in. But even gold and silver don't really become money, until some authority states that little metal pieces with a kings head stamped upon them, are indeed money, and that the populace better start offering up goods and services in exchange for these little pieces of metal, because the king expects taxes to be paid by every subject, using these very same coins, which his treasury has minted, and will exchange for goods and services.

Money has always required some kind of authority behind it. If that 'authority' is some Indian chief with a penchant for giant rare kinds of feathers to put in his headdress, then large fine eagle feathers are money. If some Pharoah has a hard-on for gold and silver, with which he can adourn his palace, then gold and silver is money. Money is whatever unit of exchange, a ruling authority will accept as tribute from it's subjects. In the modern day, that ultimate unit of exchange is the US Dollar. Bitcoins value, is entirely derived from it's rate of convertibility into either the USD, or any number of other fiat currencies which are ultimately backed by the US dollar. If the USD value of BTC is going up, everyone wants to be holding BTC, if it is going down, nobody wants to be holding BTC. I understand that there is value in Bitcoin in terms of the potential ease with which value (in USD) can be transferred around the world, without the need for any of the conventional banking system, and/or clearing houses, but without that convertibility into USD, Bitcoin is worthless.

Arguably, if Bitcoin grows and becomes stable enough in value, it may be passed around as a substitute for USD, and business may gladly hold any BTC they may receive (as opposed to converting it immediately to USD b4 they even recognise payment). But consider the 'Money as Debt' allegory of the goldsmith who issued claim cheques on gold stored in his vaults, only to find the towns people were making payments to each other with the claim cheques as though they were the gold itself. Under those circumstances, the goldsmith's claim cheques, were as good as gold. They were money. However, should it become known that the goldsmith's vaults are empty cos he handed it all to a foreign trader in exchange for luxurious goods, then these claim cheques become worthless. In Bitcoin's case, it won't be a lack of gold in the goldsmiths cellar, but a loss of confidence in the Fiat currencies which give Bitcoin it's value to begin with. As sick as it may sound, collapsing currencies will prove fucking great for Bitcoin, but only so long as the USD stands. Should the USD go down (and I am not that sure that it will anytime soon, but who knows), then the goldsmith's vault is truly empty, and the good townsfolk are going to have to ask themselves the question, "what really is wealth?" Could anyone expect the poultry farmer to exchange his eggs in return for some claim cheques on wealth that is no longer in the vault? Under a USD collapse scenario, is some large oil company going to deliver oil to a customer in exchange for a number of digital tokens with no tangible value, and with no powerful entity enforcing their use? No fucking way! Only chance Bitcoin has of becoming 'money' is if turns out some entity who control a sufficient volume of raw materials, production capacity, and military might, turn around and say, "ok, don't panic! We have the bread, we have the fuel, and we have the guns, and we will see you all alright, providing you pay us with these digital tokens, which we also own 90% off, and can set the value off, and decide how many Satoshi's to give your sorry arse for your hours of daily toil".....

But whilst it is all well n good reminding myself of Bitcoin's glaring limitations that all you Bitcoin Nutters don't want to acknowledge, that don't mean that Bitcoin aint gonna pump, and dump, and then pump again, to who really knows what limits. I suspect that the upper limits of this pump will ultimately be somewhere between $850-$1000. Has Bitcoin broken out it's range, is it now once again, a trending bull? For sure! But will it come back down to flush out all the weak hands and the too late to the party leveraged longs? I sure fkn hope so, otherwise the train has left the station, and I aint on it.


lol.

"In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king."
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April 26, 2016, 09:36:37 PM
 #123

Hahah, matthestatist shill comes out in full glory.

he's trying to play like a dumb-ass trader permashort who got run over to make us feel pity and then spread his statist lies ... in triplicate technicolour govvy-loving word vomit all over the pages.

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April 26, 2016, 11:34:47 PM
 #124

Meh...just a wait a few days to a week or so...u couple of tossers will be crapping ur pants as 'they' once again, start dumping Bitcoin and margin calling a whole bunch of leverged traders.

Margin longs are up near ATHs, Margin shorts are getting pretty low. That means if 'they' are gonna extract wealth from the market, then 'they' will do so by driving it back down from where it came.

Where there are many margin longs, there are many potential panic sellers, and there are many many margin longs.

But I can see this stabbing increasingly higher in ever so slight increments yet... edging it's way up to the $475 high, and probs a few bucks beyond it, just to get the noobiest of the noobs all excited.....then....KABOOM (and not the kind of KABOOM y'all want to see, but the kind KABOOM that I want to see, right back down to my buy-in zone).


Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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April 26, 2016, 11:41:16 PM
 #125

Hahah, matthestatist shill comes out in full glory.

Yea, no kidding.  I'm not under the delusion that anarchy actually works, because anarchy is a power vacuum that will always be filled by a "strongman", and then you no longer have anarchy.  But PoW is an actual war game exercise that manifests in the real world, not just virtual, that fills the gap of this strongman.

Mat's idea of a bright future was the fractional reserve, debt as money systems collapsing, and then him lining up at the table for a second helping of the exact same scam when they clear the board to start anew to steal his money again.  Most people who can understand these issues would likely call him a very dumb person, but he seems to think it's just being practical.  It's only being practical if there are no alternatives.  You are literally choosing to be scammed on purpose when you don't have to be.  Pretty much any option is better than signing up to be Ben Shalom Bernanke's slave on purpose.

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MatTheCat
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April 27, 2016, 12:32:24 AM
 #126

Hahah, matthestatist shill comes out in full glory.

Yea, no kidding.  I'm not under the delusion that anarchy actually works, because anarchy is a power vacuum that will always be filled by a "strongman", and then you no longer have anarchy.  But PoW is an actual war game exercise that manifests in the real world, not just virtual, that fills the gap of this strongman.

Mat's idea of a bright future was the fractional reserve, debt as money systems collapsing, and then him lining up at the table for a second helping of the exact same scam when they clear the board to start anew to steal his money again.  Most people who can understand these issues would likely call him a very dumb person, but he seems to think it's just being practical.  It's only being practical if there are no alternatives.  You are literally choosing to be scammed on purpose when you don't have to be.  Pretty much any option is better than signing up to be Ben Shalom Bernanke's slave on purpose.

When I say that money requires authority behind it, I am not saying that this is how I want the world to be, but how the world is.

Bitcoin has value, cos it can be changed into USD, which is money cos it is the IOU of the USA, by far the most powerful country on the face of the planet.

Best of luck trying to convince the marketplace to part with goods or services in exchange for some digital token, that isn't backed by a powerful authority, or can't be easily exchanged for a token that is backed by a powerful.

When empires have broken down throughout the ages, their monetary systems went, but the gold and silver coins, always remained valuable, because they are valuable and desirable of themselves. If the USD were to go down the pan, you really think anyone is going to give a fuck about Bitcoins on a USB stick? I have about 30K Quarks. How much of a shit do you think I could give about them?

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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April 27, 2016, 01:19:51 AM
 #127

Price keeps butting it's head against $470, which is has been the resistance point for quite some time now. Matt, if you really believe it's going to pump this summer it makes diddly shit difference if you got in at $420 or $470. If you have no freakin clue, just stay out - it's much better to miss a pump and not lose money than to lose money on a pump that doesn't happen.
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April 27, 2016, 01:23:58 AM
 #128

Bitcoin has value, cos it can be changed into USD, which is money cos it is the IOU of the USA, by far the most powerful country on the face of the planet.

This is the stuff you read from primitive, low IQ, couch potatoes around 50-70 on Facebook that can barely figure out how to turn a computer on.  The currency system that exists is not run as a function to empower the state.  It was the opposite, the banks took over the state.  So even if you believe garbage like this, you've already debunked yourself using and endorsing Federal Reserve notes.  All of your arguments seem to come back to the inescapable point that you choose to be a banker's indentured servant on purpose.  Unless you wilfully choose to boycott their system as much as humanly possible, this will always be the case.

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chesthing
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April 27, 2016, 01:32:59 AM
 #129

Bitcoin has value, cos it can be changed into USD, which is money cos it is the IOU of the USA, by far the most powerful country on the face of the planet.

This is the stuff you read from primitive, low IQ, couch potatoes around 50-70 on Facebook that can barely figure out how to turn a computer on.  The currency system that exists is not run as a function to empower the state.  It was the opposite, the banks took over the state.  So even if you believe garbage like this, you've already debunked yourself using and endorsing Federal Reserve notes.  All of your arguments seem to come back to the inescapable point that you choose to be a banker's indentured servant on purpose.  Unless you wilfully choose to boycott their system as much as humanly possible, this will always be the case.

This is the kind of stuff you read from shills appealing to low IQ couch potatoes.
You are nothing more than a shill.
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April 27, 2016, 01:35:33 AM
 #130

Bitcoin has value, cos it can be changed into USD, which is money cos it is the IOU of the USA, by far the most powerful country on the face of the planet.

This is the stuff you read from primitive, low IQ, couch potatoes around 50-70 on Facebook that can barely figure out how to turn a computer on.  The currency system that exists is not run as a function to empower the state.  It was the opposite, the banks took over the state.  So even if you believe garbage like this, you've already debunked yourself using and endorsing Federal Reserve notes.  All of your arguments seem to come back to the inescapable point that you choose to be a banker's indentured servant on purpose.  Unless you wilfully choose to boycott their system as much as humanly possible, this will always be the case.

This is the kind of stuff you read from shills appealing to low IQ couch potatoes.
You are nothing more than a shill.

You have already been identified as the banker shill account named "Talks_Cheep", so your reverse psychology tactic doesn't work very well.

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chesthing
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April 27, 2016, 03:14:59 AM
 #131

Bitcoin has value, cos it can be changed into USD, which is money cos it is the IOU of the USA, by far the most powerful country on the face of the planet.

This is the stuff you read from primitive, low IQ, couch potatoes around 50-70 on Facebook that can barely figure out how to turn a computer on.  The currency system that exists is not run as a function to empower the state.  It was the opposite, the banks took over the state.  So even if you believe garbage like this, you've already debunked yourself using and endorsing Federal Reserve notes.  All of your arguments seem to come back to the inescapable point that you choose to be a banker's indentured servant on purpose.  Unless you wilfully choose to boycott their system as much as humanly possible, this will always be the case.

This is the kind of stuff you read from shills appealing to low IQ couch potatoes.
You are nothing more than a shill.

You have already been identified as the banker shill account named "Talks_Cheep", so your reverse psychology tactic doesn't work very well.

No, I have not "been identified" I am the original account holder - and you are a part of the brainwashing machine of bitcoin, louder than hell when the price is spiking, quiet when the price is dumping.
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April 27, 2016, 09:07:00 AM
 #132

Price keeps butting it's head against $470, which is has been the resistance point for quite some time now. Matt, if you really believe it's going to pump this summer it makes diddly shit difference if you got in at $420 or $470. If you have no freakin clue, just stay out - it's much better to miss a pump and not lose money than to lose money on a pump that doesn't happen.

If BTC goes back down to $420, then that is about a 10% correction...that is a horrendous move to be on the wrong side off and a great move to be on the right side off.

I amn't counting on anything and can't say for sure that halving pump is a definite, but all signs point towards it being likely.

Bitcoin looks like it will fail on this round of asking to break through the $475 area, it will most likely correct, possibly heavily, but I expect it to rebound off a support level, consolidate, and then gradually march right back up the charts, and on the next round of asking, BTC I imagine, will punch right through $475.

So my plan is to look for long setups off either of a number of trendlines which may proves themselves as support.

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April 27, 2016, 09:42:14 AM
 #133

I amn't counting on anything and can't say for sure that halving pump is a definite, but all signs point towards it being likely.

You're always looking for stupid 4 hour trades.  Take some ADHD medicine or something and you might stop losing money.  If you don't believe Bitcoin is about to rocket, you should probably slap yourself in the face several times:

Let's break out the list:

1)  Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up.  The odds of losing are far lower than gaining.

2)  There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad:  Bitcoin and Metals.

3)  If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch.  Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

5)  Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors.  Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards.  If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.

6)  The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.

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April 27, 2016, 10:34:51 AM
 #134

I amn't counting on anything and can't say for sure that halving pump is a definite, but all signs point towards it being likely.

You're always looking for stupid 4 hour trades.  Take some ADHD medicine or something and you might stop losing money.  If you don't believe Bitcoin is about to rocket, you should probably slap yourself in the face several times:


I'd certainly suggest stepping back from things for the time being Mat, you're too emotionally invested in being right and very vulnerable to a "fuck it" fomo entry with weak hands.
I've been trading derivatives for a long time now and I treat Bitcoin as just another underlying instrument. I possess BTC on a separate fundamental/emotional basis, but my in and out trading is purely technical with longs mainly dating from the November break of ~320, which confirmed for me the establishment of a base.
Higher lows since then support the view imo that, although 465-500 is a resistance level, it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish before becoming overbought, from where I'll scale up profit take up to maybe 50% of my long, looking to replace on a confirming retrace to ~500.
If these previous highs do hold, I would only say that it would qualify as a top formation if the March lows of 400 break soon, where I'd probably dump 50% and if the Feb lows ~363 are broken then I'd think about stopping out the rest, still with an average profit and walking away, although I'd still keep some "physical" coin for the sake of it.
 


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April 27, 2016, 11:19:40 AM
Last edit: April 27, 2016, 11:36:06 AM by r0ach
 #135

it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish

I would prefer if Mat fomo bought at the very top of the 2016 bubble somewhere between $1600-$3200.  Although most people's estimates of price for if an actual bubble occurs in the industry seems to be higher than mine.

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April 27, 2016, 11:35:54 AM
 #136

it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish

I would prefer if Mat fomo bought at the very top of the 2016 bubble somewhere between $1600-$3200

Quite pleased to read Matt is not in. He is right that finex longs are eye wateringly high. But that doesn't mean that the price will not break resistance here, potentially setting off a mania and mini bubble into which long interest can drop back. Wall of worry, remember.

As long as you are not leveraged you will still have the same number of bitcoins if the price rises or corrects. Short term trading is a fool's game. Riding the big waves (should they occur) is all that is required to increase your wealth.
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April 27, 2016, 01:17:33 PM
 #137

Roll up, roll up!

Getcha cheap Bitcoins.

Only $455, reduced from $472 (and counting)!


lol.


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April 27, 2016, 01:21:03 PM
 #138

Is this the worst TA thread on the forum? Certainly the most blinkered, one view thread any way. Must be a poster that went all in at the ATH or something.


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April 27, 2016, 01:22:57 PM
 #139

Roll up, roll up!

Who cares, a $10 drop.  It was China trying to sweep the longs out because they didn't want anyone long during the rise.  It's a pointless move since all the longs will pile back in anyway.

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April 27, 2016, 01:28:56 PM
 #140

Roll up, roll up!

Who cares, a $10 drop.  It was China trying to sweep the longs out because they didn't want anyone long during the rise.  It's a pointless move since all the longs will pile back in anyway.

Supprt Trend line 1 is down at $440,

Supprt Trend line 2 is down at $430,

and maybe, just maybe, Bitcoin will take them both out. I will be ruling nothing out.

This market will be pushed in the direction of where the easiest liquidity is to be found, and right now, there must be a whole bunch of leveraged longs biting their nails, if not already flushed out. Certainly the big red dildo on OKCoin 3Monfuts, suggests to me a massive liquidation event.

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Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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