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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
Torque
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June 12, 2016, 07:12:03 PM
Last edit: June 12, 2016, 07:40:15 PM by Torque
 #581


Incase you hadn't noticed, equities are about to take a big fkn tumble and contrary to popular opinion, a shrinking market is not good for Bitcoin. I wouldn't count on it, but perhaps this is why this Halving Pump had to happen at the weekend, when equities aren't trading? When notional wealth starts to get destroyed in the coming weeks, capital will not be entering Bitcoin, but leaving it. Bitcoin is not a safe haven asset, and Bitcoin is not money. It is a ultra volatile low liquidity digital commodity. In a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can only go one way, saving for some kind of 'event'.

All purely your opinion, and all completely backwards from logic.

1. Equity money will flow out of top-heavy, overbought markets (like stocks, oil, and real estate are right now) and instead flow *into* undervalued, oversold ones (like Bitcoin, PMs, startups, etc.).  Every. Single. time. Equity money will not just sit on the sidelines for years, doesn't happen. Because fiat money is dead and losing value daily when it just sits in a bank account or vault somewhere.

Bitcoin is not a safe haven asset, and Bitcoin is not money. It is a ultra volatile low liquidity digital commodity. In a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can only go one way, saving for some kind of 'event'.

2. Bitcoin *is* a safe-haven (deflationary), and bitcoin *is* money because it can be value-transferred for goods/services.  Fiat money sitting in bank accounts is subject to inflation, negative interest rates, monthly fees just to hold it for you, and possibly bank/government seizure at any time.

Even if you have more that $3K in a bank account, just for kicks try going into your local bank branch and pulling it all out.  Would you be surprised to find out that you can't?  Would you be surprised that they will tell you that there's a limit on what you can withdrawal that day, and that they don't have enough 'fiat on hand' to fullfill your withdrawal?  That it'll take 3-4 business days to get you the rest of your money shipped to the bank branch? And they'll tell it's all for 'security reasons'. Try it sometime just for fun.  Cheesy

But you just keep spewing your backwards, non-sensical logic, Mat. It sure makes for some fun entertainment.  Wink
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June 12, 2016, 07:42:04 PM
 #582

I'm not entertained. I hate seeing people destroy themselves. But you can only help people who want help.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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June 12, 2016, 07:48:20 PM
 #583

Unbelievable, settling for a few hundred dollars of profit when a bull market is in the making is simply pathetic and a prime example to others of why you don't sell period during these times. Just shocking.
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June 12, 2016, 07:57:53 PM
 #584

This thread:

MatTheCat
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June 12, 2016, 08:13:44 PM
 #585

This thread:



Hey. The last actual trade I posted was a long.

I won $100, and that was whilst bailing at only 50% of the target.

Had I just held those Bitcoins, I would be up approx $2000 by now.

lol.


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June 13, 2016, 06:12:51 AM
 #586

This thread:



... this thread is my new happy place. It is hilarious, never fails to deliver.

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June 13, 2016, 06:46:26 AM
 #587


P.S. US equities are going down. If the same relationship between equiites and BTC holds, as has held for the past 12 months or so, then save for the odd window of divergence, BTC will also correct. There is of corse no guarantee that this will happen, but the chart I posted above speaks for itself. If equities tank here, and BTC continues on it's merry manufactured pump path, then the relationship which came into being during the summer of 2015, will have been broken......even you will clearly be able to see, that a BTC trader who took his cues from US equities, could have successfully front run BTC for the past 12 months, as equities are changing direction ahead of BTC. This makes sense, as US equities are the multi-billion dollar per day market, and if some participants are feeling rich in this market, then they may be inclined to put a little play money into Bitcoin for some fast gains, if participants in the equities market aren' feeling rich, or are feeling threatened, they will be more likely to pull funds out of the ultra high risk experimental asset, Bitcoin.

To make a quick point from a macro sense - perhaps bitcoin could be correlated to other things apart from the US stockmarket. Or perhaps it is influenced by a range of things?

As I said, macro wise, how about a weak USD 2011 - late 2013 and early 2016 - current?

Or how about with 'the impossible trinity' whereby China cannot maintain an independent monetary policy, open capital account and pegged exchange rate at the same time? (this by the way is how Soros broke the bank of England - he bet that of the trinity, it would be the currency peg that broke). This plays into the shaky performance of the Yuan; disorderly devaluation causes chaos globally (Aug 15, Jan 16) and orderly devaluation does little to stop currency outflows from China (bitcoin being one such small avenue out.) Or maybe it gels with the risk on / risk off rollercoaster of central bank jawboning? Maybe it's the halving and miners pumping to maintain income?

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June 13, 2016, 08:25:20 AM
 #588

It is painful to read this thread. Truly car crash stuff from Mat.

It's because Mat performs all of his TA while stoned out of his mind.  I haven't smoked weed in years, but I'd estimate the odds of it helping my trading ability to be around 0.  Mat is using up the entire supply just to create the charts.  I mean come on, shorting the halving?  Seriously?

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sandiman
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June 13, 2016, 09:33:16 AM
 #589

r0ach and mat :

MatTheCat
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June 13, 2016, 03:24:42 PM
 #590

Maybe it's the halving and miners pumping to maintain income?



This is what it is. Forget all this about Chinese Capital flight and USD weakness. There have been numerous studies done on the routes of Chinese Capital Flight and Bitcoin is a mere pin prick in the dam of Chinese Capital Controls, and as for 'Safe Haven' from USD.....lol.....save for a few internet libertarians viewing it as such with a few tens of thousands of their savings, forget it.

Furthermore, Post-Halving, if Bitcoin can't sustain prices of around $800 plus, many miners are simply going to turn off. In the meantime, you can bet your bottom dollar that there is a hoard of miner BTC being held, waiting on higher prices.

There is a good quote I read somewhere on here from 'Wyckoff':

“The market is made by the mind of man, and all the fluctuations of the market and all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Operator, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and plays a stock to his advantage."

In Bitcoin's case, 'composite man' could probably be replaced with 'Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys'. This pump is manufactured as fuck. 100% designed to induce a glut of FOMO buying, which is what these fuckers both want and need. If you understand 'Composite Man's' strategy, it can be to your great profit. Those who don't understand it yet participate in the market will be punished. I clearly just didn't get it, but r0ach certainly doesn't get it. Despite r0ach continually stating that I was trying to 'short' the Halving break. This isn't true. The last proper short position trades I took, were posted at the start of this thread. I wasn't shorting the break out. I was shorting the test of the top of the range. Since then I have been bullish. I made a bit on the first leg up, but have been sitting out waiting on a retrace for the second leg up. That retrace hasn't come, and when it does finally come, I doubt I will be interested in hunting longs. I suspect this thing is going right up to $800 range, perhaps with a blow off top touching the tip of $1000 Bitcoin...who knows. All I know is that I can't trade it, cos I would have to trade with stops, and big fucking dirty $100 red wipeout candles are highly probable if past pumps have been anything to go by.

I think the cartoon depicting both me and r0ach post the BTC pump is very apt. I didn't get it. He certainly doesn't get it.

In the short term, Bitcoin gonna make a bunch of people richer, but with the majority of those who take a bite of the apple, ending up poorer, just cos this is the way zero sum games like financial asset trading must be. In the long term, I am hearing lots of talk from techie crypto geeks, guys who were mining Bitcoin from 2011-2014, that Bitcoin is toast. It is too powerhungry, and post the Halving, lots of miners are going to be forced to cease operations, just as he was back in 2014, and this is going to bring the already laborious network speeds to a crawl.

I have learned better to go calling anything so speculative way in advance. But if this were Bitcoin's last desperate throw of the dice, from those who are heavily invested in it, then it wouldn't surprise me at all. Afterall, Bitcoin is the prototype crypto currency. Not going to be very likely that Satoshi (who in my view is this guy) and his team of government contractors working on the classified electronic cash project, just so happened to hit the nail bang on the head, on the very first attempt.

Bitcoin is a prototype, which is being test driven, until it crashes.
 

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Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
MatTheCat
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June 13, 2016, 03:37:55 PM
 #591

It is painful to read this thread. Truly car crash stuff from Mat.

It's because Mat performs all of his TA while stoned out of his mind.  I haven't smoked weed in years, but I'd estimate the odds of it helping my trading ability to be around 0.  Mat is using up the entire supply just to create the charts.  I mean come on, shorting the halving?  Seriously?


Don't underestimate the power of Stoned/Smashed Trading r0ach....


I hate to state it, but I called this when I was fucked.....my problem was (as I have repeated ad nauseum, that I was waiting on a 38.2% retrace before getting long):

Here is a transcript from my traders website, copied and pasted into my trading journal:



Ach fuck...missed class.....got waaaaay more smashed on MEscaline today than I bargained 4.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
$677 Bitcoin incoming....
Matthew 8 days ago
 
Ouch, and was VP
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
the one you were awaiting for
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
$540 I think woudl be a good buy in price, and likely about as deep as it is gonna cut.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
was very nice/cool as always
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
I will get on rewind..
Matthew 8 days ago
 
but you already know the hoag a bit, so ...
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
Normally I would be good by 10pm...but NOT today.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
you said 677$
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
not 577$
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
Mescaline speaking mate..
Matthew 8 days ago
 
yep.



The subconscious mind is infinitely more powerful than the conscious mind, and is capable of making calculations (i.e. intuition) that the concsious mind cannot even begin to comprehend. The battle between being a winner or a loser, is the extent to which the conscious mind can take clean and faithful cues from the subconscious, against the extent to which it is tempted to taint and distort those cues, with complete bullshit. Fear, greed, and other emotionally appealling delusional clutter.

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June 13, 2016, 03:46:30 PM
 #592

MatTheCat in a nut shell:

Price is $500. "It's gonna crash from here"
Price rise up to $600. "It's definitely gonna crash to $400 from here"
Price rise up to $700. "It should crash to $500 any minute now".
Price dumps to $680. "See I called that!"
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June 13, 2016, 03:48:18 PM
 #593

MatTheCat in a nut shell:

Price is $500. "It's gonna crash from here"
Price rise up to $600. "It's definitely gonna crash to $400 from here"
Price rise up to $700. "It should crash to $500 any minute now".
Price dumps to $680. "See I called that!"

Hahaha, a broken clock is right twice a day.

Or in Mat's case, he's fairly sure the price will dump.... at times.  Grin
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June 13, 2016, 03:51:19 PM
 #594

MatTheCat in a nut shell:
Price dumps to $680. "See I called that!"

Wrong.

That transcript was from 10 days ago.

Bitcoin was around $560 when I called $677.

$677 was simply a random bullish as fuck number that popped into my head when I was tripping balls two weekends past.........I decided that I had to get long BTC....

.......after a 38.2% correction to $540... Angry

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 13, 2016, 03:52:06 PM
 #595

Alright fair enough Cheesy
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June 13, 2016, 04:16:16 PM
 #596

Maybe it's the halving and miners pumping to maintain income?


In the short term, Bitcoin gonna make a bunch of people richer, but with the majority of those who take a bite of the apple, ending up poorer, just cos this is the way zero sum games like financial asset trading must be.
 

How can this be a zero sum game, when there is only a limited number of bitcoins on one side and an endless amount of fiat on the other ?
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June 13, 2016, 04:40:41 PM
 #597

Maybe it's the halving and miners pumping to maintain income?


In the short term, Bitcoin gonna make a bunch of people richer, but with the majority of those who take a bite of the apple, ending up poorer, just cos this is the way zero sum games like financial asset trading must be.
 

How can this be a zero sum game, when there is only a limited number of bitcoins on one side and an endless amount of fiat on the other ?

Cos the aim of the game isn't to be holding a big pile of BTC, but to extract as much fiat from the market as possible.

Smart money takes their positions. The market pumps, Smart Money exits and stops supporting the market. The market inevitably crashes. Smart Money extracted from the market 4-5 times more fiat than Smart Money orignally invested. That money had to come from somewhere...thus, the majority always lose. Hence, zero sum game.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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June 13, 2016, 04:47:01 PM
 #598

Mat, do you seriously believe the dollar will keeps it value for the next 20 years?

Because I have some news for you in that case, the dollar is dying, and it's not bitcoin who killed it.

Bitcoin is only the life raft for those who choose not to drown under the collapse of the dollar.

If the dollar collapses, then Bitcoin aint gonna save ya.

Best of luck trying to buy some groceries, or bribe a border guard with some digital token sitting on your smart phone, which you can't even send to the recipient, cos the telecoms companies have shut down their internet servers, or cos you can't get your phone charged cos their is only electricty for 5 hours a week. In a situation where we have total financial meltdown, nobody will want to be holding any 'notional wealth', and that includes Bitcoin or any other Alt.



even total financial collapse isn't needed. Although possible, but we have seen world reserve currencies being dethroned before, and the USD won't be different.

Even if it doesn't bring financial collapse, it will have a large negative impact on the value of the dollar (and the american economy and quite possibly the world economy). That doesn't mean we will fall back to stone age technology though.

Bitcoin might actually rebuild a new financial system altogether, at least that's what it's ultimately designed for.
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June 13, 2016, 04:50:03 PM
 #599

Maybe it's the halving and miners pumping to maintain income?


In the short term, Bitcoin gonna make a bunch of people richer, but with the majority of those who take a bite of the apple, ending up poorer, just cos this is the way zero sum games like financial asset trading must be.
 

How can this be a zero sum game, when there is only a limited number of bitcoins on one side and an endless amount of fiat on the other ?

Cos the aim of the game isn't to be holding a big pile of BTC, but to extract as much fiat from the market as possible.

Smart money takes their positions. The market pumps, Smart Money exits and stops supporting the market. The market inevitably crashes. Smart Money extracted from the market 4-5 times more fiat than Smart Money orignally invested. That money had to come from somewhere...thus, the majority always lose. Hence, zero sum game.

In a market where the price simply returns to the pre-pump level you are correct. But the bitcoin market cap is growing and with it the wealth of those who hold the underlying asset - in that respect it is not a zero sum game.

Minor trading oscillations that you get so perturbed about predicting (impossible) are not what is important. The overall trend is what matters and that is clear to even you as you keep coming back here year after year. (Hint: up).
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June 13, 2016, 04:52:07 PM
 #600

Maybe you're looking at this the wrong way.

What if the smart money is extracting value from the market like you say, but instead of extracting fiat value (and surely, at times, they will take profit in USD), they're actually extracting BTC value, and their sole purpose is to accumulate more BTC (at least for now).
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