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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
MatTheCat
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May 29, 2016, 05:01:47 PM
 #361

Price touched $485 on Stamp, I'm still thinking the new bottom is $465.

Stamp has these wicks n tails increasingly, as it's liquidity decreases...

......that $485 would have been some dick with insider privileges running stops.


I imagine on Finex, that somewhere around $500 will prove the new bottom, with Huobi shooting somewhat lower in relative terms....just cos they always do overdo it.

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May 29, 2016, 05:20:41 PM
 #362

Price touched $485 on Stamp, I'm still thinking the new bottom is $465.

Nobody gives a fuck about Bitstamp due to their obvious attempts to try and manipulate downwards to paint the tape.  They're likely an insolvent exchange and people will just stop using them.  Once Bitstamp spread gets large enough, people will deposit money there to buy Bitcoin and immediately withdraw it to a different exchange.  Then Bitstamp will cease to exist after withdraw amounts exceed amount of coins they own while it also causes BTC to go to infinity in the process.

do you really think this would happen so soon after they got licensed? what you're saying seems purely based on the strange behaviour of the market on stamp, but the timing seems off, based on stamp's now assumed legitimacy in the eyes of the EU...surely there are other possibilities to explain the lower price, like lack of leveraging like on bitfinex
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May 29, 2016, 05:23:48 PM
 #363

The piglets on BFX are smarter than the Chinese piglets, they didn't touch my limit shorts, shrug...
So I took a small short at 541$ and will increase my position on 15 min and 30 min PSAR bearish flips, at least that's my plan.
It is possible that this wasn't a local 3, but a local 5 (the 3 got suppressed by the big triangle, still 112$ from 360$ to 472$).
In such a case, the correction should be nice, and if 510$ support will be broken tomorrow, it should bottom around 470$.

I guess you will know, whether you know what you are doing or not, but as I have discovered, the odds of betting against the MAs are greatly reduced compared with taking trend following setups. If you took a short at $541 on Finex for example, where do you set your stop loss behind? There is no market structure to work with, and if enough short positions build up around topping areas, FU moves are always likely. Indeed, that is what the FU candle up to $453 on Finex no doubt was.....just the exchange shaking shorters out of their positions, and I suppose the smart trader could place his Short Entry, precisely where he expects the exchange to shake shorters out.....but what happens if the move up isn't an FU move at all, but a break out? We have had 3 very violent impulse moves up, that nobody was quite prepared for, who is to say 'they' won't engineer a fourth?

Having a bias towards a correction here is one thing, but trying to short it is quite another....believe me....I am the absolute King of Shorting against the trend. ...

....and besides...if u got short at $541, didn't you take any profits as Finex dipped down into teens? I suspect the floor for Bitcoin will be put in here around $500. It is 'the Halving Pump'. Everyone knows Bitcoin is going to get pumped by the Chinese miners. I suspect that Bitcoiners and traders will be much more resilient in the face of downside than they normally would, and the Chinese Bitcoin cowboys, and other whales will be hanging around key support levels, putting in support from which to build the next phases of the pump......this just isn't a shorter's market at the moment.

I didn't set a stop loss, for a small short at such overbought indicators, there is no need to.
If I would have been awake at 7 am I would have been tempted to take profit, but in principle I prefer to build a position.
If the floor will be around 500$ on BFX, then this was a local 3 and the local 5 is yet to come.
If the floor will be around 470$ or lower, then it's possible this already was the local 5 and I'll get new shorting opportunities.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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May 29, 2016, 05:28:46 PM
 #364

Price touched $485 on Stamp, I'm still thinking the new bottom is $465.

Nobody gives a fuck about Bitstamp due to their obvious attempts to try and manipulate downwards to paint the tape.  They're likely an insolvent exchange and people will just stop using them.  Once Bitstamp spread gets large enough, people will deposit money there to buy Bitcoin and immediately withdraw it to a different exchange.  Then Bitstamp will cease to exist after withdraw amounts exceed amount of coins they own while it also causes BTC to go to infinity in the process.

do you really think this would happen so soon after they got licensed? what you're saying seems purely based on the strange behaviour of the market on stamp, but the timing seems off, based on stamp's now assumed legitimacy in the eyes of the EU...surely there are other possibilities to explain the lower price, like lack of leveraging like on bitfinex

I think it's very odd that I can find no proof of solvency for Bitstamp after they had $5 million stolen from them when they had already done a proof of solvency beforehand.  Why would they NOT do one after if they want people to have any faith in their exchange???

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talkingleaves
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May 29, 2016, 05:31:37 PM
 #365

Price touched $485 on Stamp, I'm still thinking the new bottom is $465.

Nobody gives a fuck about Bitstamp due to their obvious attempts to try and manipulate downwards to paint the tape.  They're likely an insolvent exchange and people will just stop using them.  Once Bitstamp spread gets large enough, people will deposit money there to buy Bitcoin and immediately withdraw it to a different exchange.  Then Bitstamp will cease to exist after withdraw amounts exceed amount of coins they own while it also causes BTC to go to infinity in the process.

do you really think this would happen so soon after they got licensed? what you're saying seems purely based on the strange behaviour of the market on stamp, but the timing seems off, based on stamp's now assumed legitimacy in the eyes of the EU...surely there are other possibilities to explain the lower price, like lack of leveraging like on bitfinex

I think it's very odd that I can find no proof of solvency for Bitstamp after they had $5 million stolen from them when they had already done a proof of solvency beforehand.  Why would they NOT do one after if they want people to have any faith in their exchange???

fair point, but maybe they thought announcing getting licensed would hold off any fears? I mean they must be making huge profits, I can't imagine 5 mil would take them down completely.

i like stamp, i dont want to stop keeping my few coins there :/ hmmm, no exchange is ever really safe is it?
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May 29, 2016, 06:36:54 PM
 #366

Fuck... the Chinese start pumping again despite the bearish divergences... made me close my short... Angry

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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May 29, 2016, 07:28:52 PM
 #367

Huobi $482, others almost $20 behind - interesting. Volume is very low, sure doesn't look like the start of a pump to me.

Don't forget that is how the last pump went as well.......

It doesn't matter how *real* it is or isn't, if you can buy BTC now at $470, and sell tomorrow at $520, then who gives a shit....

....of course, I can't buy now, not at $480, nor at $490.....if this is the pump, then I am missing it.


yes like the last pump, but the new bottom was higher so who care if there will be a dump, that's not the point

the point is to build a new rock solid floor, so again the new floor can be something between 600-800 or higher, after the pump end

we have seen this pattern so many times it's not even funny anymore
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May 29, 2016, 08:28:36 PM
 #368

Fuck... the Chinese start pumping again despite the bearish divergences... made me close my short... Angry

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May 29, 2016, 08:34:49 PM
 #369

Bitcoin price hasn't mattered in 3 years anyhow, the real money is made buying/selling shitcoins. People shit their pants on a 30% bitcoin move, while we just saw Lisk go something like 600% in a couple days, for example.  Roll Eyes
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May 29, 2016, 08:35:33 PM
 #370

Tzupy you will never learn.

MatTheCat
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May 29, 2016, 08:43:07 PM
 #371

Fuck... the Chinese start pumping again despite the bearish divergences... made me close my short... Angry

Yep....that is what happens when u try to pick tops in a roaring market...been there, done it, won't do it ever again.

That spike on Finex, would have been precisely a whole bunch of shorters getting wiped out, and not much more than that....

with all that said....check this shit out:



China are leading. Major AB=CD harmonic target hit...reckon BTC can finally find a new floor now.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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May 29, 2016, 08:47:05 PM
 #372

Mat, what is that useless chart supposed to be?  This move started at $420, not $220


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May 29, 2016, 08:53:04 PM
 #373

Fuck... the Chinese start pumping again despite the bearish divergences... made me close my short... Angry

Yep....that is what happens when u try to pick tops in a roaring market...been there, done it, won't do it ever again.

That spike on Finex, would have been precisely a whole bunch of shorters getting wiped out, and not much more than that....

with all that said....check this shit out:



China are leading. Major AB=CD harmonic target hit...reckon BTC can finally find a new floor now.

lol, you're gonna get left behind if you think thats the top
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May 29, 2016, 08:55:44 PM
 #374

Mat, just ask me where the price is gonna go and I can tell you.

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May 29, 2016, 08:58:28 PM
 #375

Mat, just ask me where the price is gonna go and I can tell you.

So where is it going?
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May 29, 2016, 08:59:42 PM
 #376

I'm sticking with my sell into the strength profit taking plan, 20% of recent low 400 longs up for grabs at 525, 550, 575 etc. then replacing on an overbought pullback to the 400's. If it happens. If it doesn't, then still got the cheap stuff.

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May 29, 2016, 09:04:51 PM
 #377

then replacing on an overbought pullback to the 400's. If it happens. If it doesn't, then still got the cheap stuff.

AHAHA That's a good one pal.  The same idiot shorters that got squeezed on the way up just shorted the same amount back in $300k more than last time ready to be squeezed again.  It's like they were led by Mat himself in to be slaughtered.

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May 29, 2016, 09:28:55 PM
 #378

I have placed limit shorts from 550$ to 565$, now I am afraid the piglets on BFX are going to miss them... Roll Eyes

Ok, the hilarity index on this thread just leveraged up ... we can watch all the worst epic bears get rekt shorting the Smaug breakout of a lifetime.

Disregard the silly permabulls... I wish had had kept my limit shorts there... Even with my short from 541$ I would have been in the green now. Roll Eyes

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
darlidada
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May 29, 2016, 09:33:24 PM
 #379

well we go down mat was right for once
Gillette
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May 29, 2016, 09:37:08 PM
 #380

well we go down mat was right for once

Once per year he may be right  Grin
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