The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more.

[Keninishna]

what a pitty.... missed batch #2 because I was unable to get my money converted to BTC fast enough and now when I did read about batch #3 on monday I went on and bought BTC but only calculated with 1599$ like it was for batch #2 -.-

I completly understand the position of Avalon team, but the risk for the customers is a bit too high for me now. (But I'm looking for joint ventures if anyone is interested...)

As I mentioned in neighboring threads, I'm willing to pool on this with someone to share the risks, PM me if interested.

The guy registered today and has offered twice already to partner with buying or housing avalon units. It's 99.9% a scammer. I've said it.

If he pays for the unit its kinda hard to get scammed.

[Rampion]

You no accept card or paypal, you no trust, you create demand for bitcoins, push price higher. Bitcoin payment need trust. We use other payment now? Or you still no trust?

As a vendor, I don't trust Paypal. And I've had many bad experiences with credit card companies where I always ended up holding the short stick

If I could do my entire business by receiving BTC only, I would surely sleep a lot better at night

As for driving up the price of BTC, I can only salute the Avalon team on a job well done. I've crossed the point where I stopped wondering about the equivalent value in EUR, I just look at how much BTC I spent on Avalon hardware and I am calculating forward to where I am breaking even, recouping all my BTC and start generating new BTC thus adding value to this community

The underlying USD and EUR world is no long relevant

Most of us think in BTC, and we're in BTC for the long run. But you will agree that:

a) more hashing power = greater difficulty = longer to b/e
b) if you have been in bitcoin for a short time, you did not buy a lot of coins cheap nor you mined a lot of btc when difficulty was lower. And with the current usd/btc exchange rate, buying btc to buy an Avalon is quite an investment/gamble.
c) if you are in btc only for the profit, given the surging exchange rate it may be wiser to simply buy btc and hold

That said, a lot of people is willing to get an ASIC to help to secure the network, etc. But the Avalon price is a big and risky investment, specially for a newcomer.

[SZD]

So after taxes and shipping the 3 module unit is around $6,500. Holy damn!  How many years ( or decades if BFL ships)  will it take to get your investment back.  Insane.

[Vagnavs]

I agree with most others. If they're in stock and can ship immediately. Then I'd pay a premium. But not if were waiting for shipping company/tracking number etc.

[muyuu]

we discussed batch3 price for a long time.

personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.

batch#1: 1300USD + your trust,  batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?

why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.

last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.

this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.

now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.

OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.

as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.

Heh, you just got greedy, but hey you can afford to since nobody else is shipping now. You can sell at a profit at $1500, but you can sell at $5000 so go for it.

Batch #3 at this point requires more trust than batch #2. Even at the same price, just by looking at the difficulty graph.

But it's not the same price, it's nearly 4 times as much.

I think you guys are legit but you got a bit too greedy. I will be surprised if you sell out at that price, but if you do then congratulations.

As users we are in this situation because others haven't delivered. But that's not your fault of course.

[muyuu]

The price is fair and the people who believe and are in it for the long term (which is what we NEED) will buy.  This will push the "flippers" out.   I actually think this is a good development.

Haha.

Your 50 cents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party

[ArticMine]

Like I said, I really wish the BTC to crash once you have your ordering started - will see where your lecture goes.

Haha, so much hate, what did you miss out on batch #1 and 2 or something? Willing to make a comment based on the negative outcome of Bitcoin as a whole just to get at me.

I do not hate you. I do not even know you. I am a new comer in BTC market, and certainly was prepping my investment based on previous batch prices, so I expected something in $1800 range. I do not have BTC mined from earlier, so purchasing BTC with usd at 64+ is out of my capacity.

With the strategy change from accepting USD to BTC, potential customers and newcomers like me are screwed, without any hope to get into mining, since other than ASIC every other h/w is outdated.

The strategy of taking BTC is making sure, the people who bought batch 1 or 2 will keep on buying with the produced BTC (or the old time miners), and does not welcome new comers. Are you expanding the market with that ?

To be fair, why don't you give both choice of paying in BTC, or equivalent in USD ? Then there would be a fair chance. It is extremely hard to collect USD and then convert to BTC. Does that make sense ?

What I have been saying is purely my feeling as a new entrant in the market, who feels that he is out of option, just because this pay with BTC thing.

Again, I do not have anything personal with you or anyone at Avalon, so please do not take in that way.

I think once you stop thinking in USD the escape velocity will come. Why should we sell some hardware that will break even in a few days for $1800 while bitcoin continue to raise? Bitcoin mining should not be a small investment, nor it should be a quick way to make money, for network security purposes the ROI for these things should be AT LEAST 1 month based on a diff projection.

All Avalon is doing is giving people a chance to take up this investment based on a projection of 10,000,000 diff in May-June with a 1 month ROI time frame.

Don't get me wrong, I respect what you did. You are legit, and you did an excellent job. I just don't think that difficulty will be 10,000,000 when the batch #3 units will reach the customers. Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

If this is treated as a pure BTC play it actually makes a lot of sense. One invests 88 BTC and one expects a return of capital in BTC terms over a 1 - 3 month period. I purchased a batch #2 unit and at the time looked at it as a strict BTC play. Delivery times are of course crucial in this analysis not only for Avalon but also for the competition since a significant part of the return will occur shortly after delivery.

Now is it really a strict BTC play since there is also an implied fixed rate to CNY of 1 BTC = 360 CNY while the current rate is more like 1 BTC = 400 CNY. http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/btcnCNY.html This is significant because a significant increase of this rate will also influence the domestic market in China and consequently impact the overall difficulty. So it would make more sense if the BTC/CNY rate changes to either allow those outside of China to pay by wire transfer in CNY or set the domestic price in CNY based on the market price of BTC/CNY at the time of the sale.

[SolarSilver]

Most of us think in BTC, and we're in BTC for the long run. But you will agree that:

a) more hashing power = greater difficulty = longer to b/e

yes, batch #2 delivery as soon as possible, please ;-)

b) if you have been in bitcoin for a short time, you did not buy a lot of coins cheap nor you mined a lot of btc when difficulty was lower. And with the current usd/btc exchange rate, buying btc to buy an Avalon is quite an investment/gamble.

Then perhaps there are other ways of contributing like buying BTC and holding on to them

c) if you are in btc only for the profit, given the surging exchange rate it may be wiser to simply buy btc and hold

You have seen the light...

[crashoveride54902]

i'm thinking they should have had batch 2 price as the price their asking for batch 3...maybe their just trying to get some $$ they lost because they didn't charge so much for batch 1 & 2...

[TheAce]

we discussed batch3 price for a long time.

personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.

batch#1: 1300USD + your trust,  batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?

why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.

last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.

this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.

now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.

OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.

as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.

Ok iľl believe you and your company.. i also want to implement bitcoins to my eshop, cause i believe to this curency. Also i wanted to order avalon in batch 3, but your price of $5000 is not reachable for me right now.. I was expecting price about $2000 so i wanted to borrow from my mother in law.. but +$5000 i dont have and neither she.
I understand that roi should be about a month.. if someone decides to support this bnitcoin network with mining(like i did) and gets some cash/bitcoins for that it is nice.. but now i just can afford to spend +5k USD
right now i'm sad of this.. so my only way to support this network is to mine with gpu, without any reward.. or to gamble with BFL

[01BTC10]

Well played Avalon.

[Gator-hex]

You no accept card or paypal, you no trust, you create demand for bitcoins, push price higher. Bitcoin payment need trust. We use other payment now? Or you still no trust?

As a vendor, I don't trust Paypal. And I've had many bad experiences with credit card companies where I always ended up holding the short stick

If I could do my entire business by receiving BTC only, I would surely sleep a lot better at night

That was the point of my piss take, he says we don't trust Avalon so have to pay more, but to buy with Bitcoin you have to trust your supplier!

Now if you gave trust discount for paying in BTC, but higher price for card/paypal payment, that would make sense.  

[Dalkore]

Well played Avalon.

+1 Quoted for posterity.   

[kakobrekla]

we discussed batch3 price for a long time.

personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.

batch#1: 1300USD + your trust,  batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?

why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.

last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.

this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.

now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.

OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.

as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.

Ah folks, do the math - they don't want to sell, they will mine themselfs.

[repentance]

Ah folks, do the math - they don't want to sell, they will mine themselfs.

From the very start, Yifu has been clear about the fact that Avalon never really wanted to retail complete units to end users.  They'd probably be thrilled if they could find an integrator who wanted to produce their own units using Avalon's chips and/or boards and they could just deal B2B rather than with end users.

It's pretty much the failure of other ASIC vendors to deliver a working retail unit yet which has created this situation.  When you're making something to order, you can charge whatever the market will bear.  If they've misjudged the market, then they won't be able to sell out Batch 3.

[kakobrekla]

then they won't be able to sell out Batch 3.

Thats the goal at this point yea.

[fcmatt]

I am asic less. So i am watching from the outside. But what i want to say is i will be really happy when this asic craze is behind us as it causes so much angst, greed, unhappiness, etc... It felt so diff when gpu was the mad crazy thing as ppl were all on a pretty even field. Plenty gpu for all in many cases. Sure sites sold out but a week later there was more. Ppl made cool spreadsherts showing best options, sharing info to assist others, fun in building your kit to mine.

Now it is gimme your money peeps and you will get ur shit when i feel like getting to it. Ppl who have make bank, those who do not are left out yet wish to participate and a meaningful level hashing speed wise. Scum company folding, another with constant excuses, and a private project with much success. So much for the mining community of bitcoin. It is broken at the moment from the majorities perspective. The minority tho... Best of times.

Jealous? Sure a bit. But at this point and after watching all of this.. It just appears sad. It was more fun before. Everyone was pretty darn happy. Cest la vie.

[Homebrewman]

Dear Bitsyncom,
I am completely taken aback on this.  I can not see how this investment now makes any sense whatsoever.
The only way I would see this being worthwhile is if you were shipping the units right now but you are not.  You have now taken the risk factor of your product to a whole new unprecedented level.  Let me make some points.
1. No confirmed shipping time
2. Not even all of batch 1 has been received
3. 0 guarantee that the unit will work upon arrival.
4. As stated on the website no tech support.
5. No refunds.
6. No returns of non working units.
7. Good chance difficulty is going to be above 10mill(batch 2 alone will add over 40 TH/s)
8. BFL may one day actually ship
9. BTC could crash after unit is paid for now costing buying a ton more and Roi becomes non existent.
10. If BTC continues  to go up before product orders it is costing even more.
11. There is absolutely no guarantee I would even receive my unit(s)

So *if* a unit was received  and *if* difficulty is less than 10 mill and *if* BFL does not ship...... ( could go on with the *if*s but will not)
You are now asking customers to take on a substantially larger risk than before at a much lower Roi.
I thought  I read somewhere  a few months ago that the idea behind avalon was not about making money but an attempt get get more people into bitcoin and helping secure the network.  This move served to the exact opposite effect.  You are putting the units in to the hands of a select few allowing them more hashing power and turning your back on people like me who are new to bitcoin. I had a genuine interest in running these machines with the hope I would  at least my initial investment back and any money on top was a bonus but not expected.  Some friends and I were going to buy up to 4 units expecting them to cost between  2000-2500 but now we are all backing out.  I did attempt to purchase back in batch 2 but was unable to secure enough BTC in time to make even a 1 unit purchase.  You talk about people not trusting you and saying you are going to fail but why would they trust you?  You had no delivered product until recently, and provided no guarantee to any customer of working units or refund. I had faith in your product and was willing to go all in with what I can afford being a father of 4 kids under 6 years of age but now you have shattered my faith by asking this much money per unit.  Being of sound mind I cannot logically justify buying a unit under these insanely  risky conditions.  You talk as though the people here are greedy for wanting a reasonable  price on one of these units but fail to see how much it makes you look greedy for asking such a price. It almost seems you expect everyone to be ok with the fact that they may never see an ROI  and to solely  do this for the good of the network,  forgetting  that monetary gain is a primary factor  that will  allow this network to become strong.  As I said earlier  I would be absolutely content running 1 or multiple machines and only getting my invested amount and power costs back because I have found bitcoin fascinating.
Unless another company  comes out with a reasonable product and price I am out if bitcoin for good.

No offense  but I can't help feeling   you have turned around completely and are now driven solely  by monetary  gain.

I do respect what you have been able to accomplish  with avalon  and hope the best for your future  endeavors.

(p's sorry about the formatting ad I typed this on my phone)

[hope2907]

we discussed batch3 price for a long time.

personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.

batch#1: 1300USD + your trust,  batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?

why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.

last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.

this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.

now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.

OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.

as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.

they aren't trust you, in business nothing called trust it's concept about taking risk they can afford
these mined when difficult was low and they have a lot coin

one easy to earn hundred of coin if they invest about three thousand in 2011, $3000 just a gaming machine  =))

6000USD i'm gonna buy 10 7970 for 7GH than take this risk =))

GL with that Dr, people who dare to take risk may have high return, or lose them all, game always like that in thousand year

[Frankie Delaney]

No risk no reward, bruh. If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

I'm ready to buy at least one as soon as the orders open, i'm going to try to get a loan to buy as many as i can, should be a lot less competiton on the order page with weak chumps being too afraid to pull the trigger.