The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more.

[m3whiteknight]

That $20K ebay auction for a batch #2 preorder probably got their attention.

But, that's for a batch #2 head start, not a 600-units-later batch #3 item.

that ebay auction is fake, bidder identity hidden, seller is pumping his own auction or get help from his friend, ant, uncle, grandma

[ShadesOfMarble]

Newest bitcoin difficulty: 6,695,826 which jumped from 4,847,647.

At this rate we should reach 10M in about four weeks. In eight weeks from now on 15M looks realistic. And in three months, we should be somewhere around 25M... And that's without BFL.

I don't think the current exchange rate sustains.

So I think a ROI of one month for a batch #3 device is NOT possible.

Of course, 1500$ was "too cheap" (and a no-brainer to buy one), but now it's a rather big gamble.

It wouldn't be such a big gamble if they could guarantee a tight time frame. But they basically decided to throw all the cost and risk on the consumer side, since there seems to be a massive surplus of demand. Now let's see if that's the case.

Yes, of course, the loose time frame is a big problem, too. Just too many variables to consider, doing risk assessment is very hard.
1. Difficulty will be >10 M when batch #3 ships. (20+ M is not impossible)
2. Exchange rate is in no way guaranteed to stay at current value. A drop back to ~ 20 USD seems likely. Especially when all people interested in buying an Avalon unit bought enough bitcoins. Demand will drop, so will the price.
3. When will batch #3 be shipped. This is closely related to 1.) - ASICMINER are deploying more and more units. Maybe BFL starts shipping. Maybe we will see another ASIC project (bitfury? Enterpoint? helveticoin? who knows...) start mining. Difficulty increase is more than +20% per period. (Last one +38%!)

Yes, a ROI of one month would still be incredible! But that's NOT going to happen. One month can easily get 3, 6 or 12 months.

[Tomatocage]

I thought prices were supposed to drop the more units were produced, nit the other way around...

[Aseras]

I still don't have my batch one order, there's a "break" before batch two ( that they publicly stated would ship between march 6 and April 5 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139704.0 ). Between those things , and the meager support and the ridiculous prices they are asking for batch 3, I don't know why anyone would consider batch 3 unless they are overcome with greed.

It's too many unknowns. It's a pity too. I had such high hopes for avalon and dr zhang.

[fcmatt]

2. Exchange rate is in no way guaranteed to stay at current value. A drop back to ~ 20 USD seems likely. Especially when all people interested in buying an Avalon unit bought enough bitcoins. Demand will drop, so will the price.

Where did you come up with these numbers?

If one is buying asics it is very wise to assume a low bitcoin price. I dont think anyone has a firm grasp why btc is at 70 usd per.  it sure did not seem like organic growth to me from many new users. It looked like whales buying. And whales can easily sell too.

[BitSyncom]

*is currently updating the FAQ on the site*
*runs off*

[Tomatocage]

2. Exchange rate is in no way guaranteed to stay at current value. A drop back to ~ 20 USD seems likely. Especially when all people interested in buying an Avalon unit bought enough bitcoins. Demand will drop, so will the price.

ROFL then why price it only in BTC?!?

[creativex]

Price just lowered to 75BTCs.

[Dalkore]

*is currently updating the FAQ on the site*
*runs off*

Thanks for the update.  Any word on the newsletter.  I would like to plan my week around yours

[alexanderanon]

Price just lowered to 75BTCs.

Let's all bitch some more so they'll continue to lower it.

75?? Highway robbery! I won't breakeven for a whole 6 months!! Outrageous!

[mrSprinkles]

*is currently updating the FAQ on the site*
*runs off*

At the time of writing Batch #3 is on sale

You're going to break my f5 key.

[Dalkore]

*is currently updating the FAQ on the site*
*runs off*

At the time of writing Batch #3 is on sale

You're going to break my f5 key.

This may mean it will go live soon.  I hope so.

[creativex]

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins. See this site for more details.

Exactly what batch 2 opened at. Though the exchange rate was around $20 at that time and shipping was included at that time.

[Dalkore]

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins. See this site for more details.

Exactly what batch 2 opened at. Though the exchange rate was around $20 at that time and shipping was included at that time.

Batch #2 was a gift.

[pera]

~6300USD

Oh! great news! now only Goldman Sachs will be able to get ASIC miners..

[creativex]

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins. See this site for more details.

Exactly what batch 2 opened at. Though the exchange rate was around $20 at that time and shipping was included at that time.

Batch #2 was a gift.

Hindsight improves one's vision...certainly didn't seem like a gift at the time. With shipping being pushed back, it's less of a gift, but I'll go along anyway if we get those extra expansion slots.

[Dalkore]

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins. See this site for more details.

Exactly what batch 2 opened at. Though the exchange rate was around $20 at that time and shipping was included at that time.

Batch #2 was a gift.

Hindsight improves one's vision...certainly didn't seem like a gift at the time. With shipping being pushed back, it's less of a gift, but I'll go along anyway if we get those extra expansion slots.

I don't know what numbers you were working on, but from my perspective, anyway I crunched the numbers, it was a more than 50% chance that these would ROI and possibly more.  I know BFL sounded like it was going down but I just don't have faith in them, really since the FPGA and how long those took and the serious lack of customer service.   

[creativex]

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins. See this site for more details.

Exactly what batch 2 opened at. Though the exchange rate was around $20 at that time and shipping was included at that time.

Batch #2 was a gift.

Hindsight improves one's vision...certainly didn't seem like a gift at the time. With shipping being pushed back, it's less of a gift, but I'll go along anyway if we get those extra expansion slots.

I don't know what numbers you were working on, but from my perspective, anyway I crunched the numbers, it was a more than 50% chance that these would ROI and possibly more.  I know BFL sounded like it was going down but I just don't have faith in them, really since the FPGA and how long those took and the serious lack of customer service.

I have zero faith in BFL...that's why I placed an order for an Avalon on 2/3. Had they not gotten that unit into Garzik's hands and gotten info out right before opening the order window it'd have been a whole lot tougher for me to press that buy button. The numbers were there, but Avalon guys were acting pretty creepy at that time.

[alexanderanon]

Ok so...the newsletter...

Does this mean the terms of batch #3 will be up to a vote, in approx. 8 hours? Is that right?

[Dalkore]

Ok so...the newsletter...

Does this mean the terms of batch #3 will be up to a vote, in approx. 8 hours? Is that right?

I think by "voting" they mean you can purchase now at the current price or they will keep the units and mine themselves for a time and then sell them cheaper later.

+1  - Basically, put up or shut up time.