My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;))

[ArticMine]

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The capping of ETC's coin supply is not a rumor, it's true.  If this is truly a bull trap remains to be seen, as we could be witnessing a start of a large trend coming.  I base this assessment on the increasing hashing power of ETC.  The miners from ETH could be pointing their rigs to ETC now because Vitalik seems motivated in switching to POS.

In the short term moving away from a fixed coin reward may create an increase in price in ETC because of the increase in scarcity, but fundamentally this is a very bad move over the longterm. The falling coin reward will put into serious question the ability of ETC to scale while at the same time maintaining the security of the proof of work.

It would be very ironic if capping the the coin supply in ETC leads to ETC surpassing XMR in market cap while at the same time removing ETC as a competitor of XMR in the area of an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work. As I have said before I have not seen a solution for an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work without a minimum tail reward. Minimum fixed fees in the protocol is not the answer here. This could easily become very serious long term pain in exchange for some short term gains for ETC, and some short term pain in exchange for long term gains for XMR.  

[tokeweed]

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The capping of ETC's coin supply is not a rumor, it's true.  If this is truly a bull trap remains to be seen, as we could be witnessing a start of a large trend coming.  I base this assessment on the increasing hashing power of ETC.  The miners from ETH could be pointing their rigs to ETC now because Vitalik seems motivated in switching to POS.

In the short term moving away from a fixed coin reward may create an increase in price in ETC because of the increase in scarcity, but fundamentally this is a very bad move over the longterm. The falling coin reward will put into serious question the ability of ETC to scale while at the same time maintaining the security of the proof of work.

It would be very ironic if capping the the coin supply in ETC leads to ETC surpassing XMR in market cap while at the same time removing ETC as a competitor of XMR in the area of an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work. As I have said before I have not seen a solution for an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work without a minimum tail reward. Minimum fixed fees in the protocol is not the answer here. This could easily become very serious long term pain in exchange for some short term gains for ETC, and some short term pain in exchange for long term gains for XMR.  

Ok...  I totally get what you're arguing for needing an adaptive blocksize + some sort of additional reward system in place to scale and for miners to continually secure the network once all the coins are mined.  I want to take that argument to Bitcoin.  Will that really affect BTC, or will it really matter?  It's still a long way to go til 2140.

In theory you could be right, so I could not really argue.

[tokeweed]

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?



With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

[mummybtc]

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?



With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

I completely agree with you, Dash has been showing sign of weakness coupled with low volume, any BTC rally is likely to crash the price

[Shiroslullaby]

What exchange/ method are you guys using to short a coin?
I looked into the Margin Trading section on Poloniex, but it looks like you can only do shorts with borrowed funds? Or am I reading this section wrong?
https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

[sandiman]

What exchange/ method are you guys using to short a coin?
I looked into the Margin Trading section on Poloniex, but it looks like you can only do shorts with borrowed funds? Or am I reading this section wrong?
https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

On poloniex you actually needs to borrow funds that you then sell to buy the asset back, hopefully, at a cheaper price and cash in the difference.

In Bitmex, using future, you can actually short the asset and close before settlement of the contract, thus allowing you to do naked shorts, no owning the underlying asset.

[tokeweed]

What exchange/ method are you guys using to short a coin?
I looked into the Margin Trading section on Poloniex, but it looks like you can only do shorts with borrowed funds? Or am I reading this section wrong?
https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

In order to short sell, you always need to borrow the coins involved unless naked shorting is allowed which is a bad idea overall.  The borrowed coins should be backed up by the deposit in your account.

Besides Poloniex, Kraken is also a good platform to do short selling.  Their interface is a little confusing though and takes a little getting used to.

[Shiroslullaby]

Ok thanks, appreciate the advice.
I've been looking into doing some short sales but didn't know what site to use.

[qwizzie]

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?



With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

I completely agree with you, Dash has been showing sign of weakness coupled with low volume, any BTC rally is likely to crash the price

Personally if i were to short a coin i would short it from the top, i would never ever short a coin when its at the very bottom and also has strong support there..... thats just way too risky.
But then again i never shorted a coin in my life, i just collect Dash as much as i can to get as many masternodes running as possible, as i think they form excellent longterm investments.

[sandiman]

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?



With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

I completely agree with you, Dash has been showing sign of weakness coupled with low volume, any BTC rally is likely to crash the price

Personally if i were to short a coin i would short it from the top, i would never ever short a coin when its at the very bottom and also has strong support there..... 

Indeed, that's what is supposed to be done. 

Only way to short at that point is to wait until support breaks (and at least 4h candle close below it).

[tokeweed]

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?



With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

I completely agree with you, Dash has been showing sign of weakness coupled with low volume, any BTC rally is likely to crash the price

Personally if i were to short a coin i would short it from the top, i would never ever short a coin when its at the very bottom and also has strong support there..... thats just way too risky.
But then again i never shorted a coin in my life, i just collect Dash as much as i can to get as many masternodes running as possible, as i think they form excellent longterm investments.

But don't forget if that support breaks, it could go lower than ever before.  The argument was if BTC continues its surge what would that make of Dash?  And remember that most altcoins are considered ponzis and all it relies on is in the law of supply and demand.

Support didn't break obviously, but what if it did?

[tokeweed]

ETC/BTC:  Possible Good Entry Point If You Missed the Bottom



I know most of the aspiring traders here like me miss some good entry points from time to time but we shouldn't really be kicking ourselves about it and what we should be doing is find more good entry points with the minimal probability of losing.  Imo, this could be another good entry point for ETC as this could just be another pull back for another break upwards.  Remember, this is just my opinion and I would love to hear more about your ideas and opinions.  Especially from sandiman who I think is one of the people with more trading experience who reads and posts in these boards.

[sandiman]

ETC/BTC:  Possible Good Entry Point If You Missed the Bottom



I know most of the aspiring traders here like me miss some good entry points from time to time but we shouldn't really be kicking ourselves about it and what we should be doing is find more good entry points with the minimal probability of losing.  Imo, this could be another good entry point for ETC as this could just be another pull back for another break upwards.  Remember, this is just my opinion and I would love to hear more about your ideas and opinions.  Especially from sandiman who I think is one of the people with more trading experience who reads and posts in these boards.

https://twitter.com/SFYLL/status/815224165103849472

This is what i've got. I used wyckoff method here because I though it was appropriate with such clear accumulation pattern. My Price objective is between 0.02 and 0.022, which also goes with one of the biggest resistance of etc. From then, I cannot speak much more (I may already be wrong), but I don't see etc stopping there definitly, we may just bounce back and forth until enough supply has been absorbed, but the latter is too much speculation. Anyway, I am in since november and also think that was a pullback, on which I sized my position (so my money is at the same place as my mouth).

[tokeweed]

Yeah I feel iffy accumulating a lot of ETC though, it just feels wrong for as long as BTC is staying the course with its current trend, that is.  A majority of what we should all be holding should be in BTC right now, with a little XMR and ETC imho.  The rest look like crap or something I wouldn't to hold even if they are looking to reverse in trend like REP.

[sandiman]

Yeah I feel iffy accumulating a lot of ETC though, it just feels wrong for as long as BTC is staying the course with its current trend, that is.  A majority of what we should all be holding should be in BTC right now, with a little XMR and ETC imho.  The rest look like crap or something I wouldn't to hold even if they are looking to reverse in trend like REP.

needless to say i accumulate quite a bit in comparaison of my poloniex account, but those are not a lot compared to my whole crypto portfolio

[tokeweed]

Yeah I feel iffy accumulating a lot of ETC though, it just feels wrong for as long as BTC is staying the course with its current trend, that is.  A majority of what we should all be holding should be in BTC right now, with a little XMR and ETC imho.  The rest look like crap or something I wouldn't to hold even if they are looking to reverse in trend like REP.

needless to say i accumulate quite a bit in comparaison of my poloniex account, but those are not a lot compared to my whole crypto portfolio

Yeah the wiser choice is to hold Bitcoin right now.  There's also a case in arguing for holding XMR too, since it's rising in Bitcoin value.  With ETC, sure I'll bite but more of a nibble than a bite just to satisfy my urge to gamble. 

[tokeweed]

REP/BTC:  Is it Poised for a Breakout?



We've seen this pattern before.  Sometimes it's a sign that it's nearing a breakout, so it might be a good idea to buy a few and maybe add more if it really does surge higher.  What really puzzles me is the whole market is moving differently than in the past.  Could we also be entering the much desired cryptocurrency bull rush?

[tokeweed]

SC/BTC:  Looks Like a Clean Breakout



I honestly missed this trade as I don't follow lower volume coins that much.  But I just want to show everyone what a clean breakout looks like and that these set ups are very ideal for the momentum based trader.

I know I'll get a couple of pm's asking 'How is this good to us?  What should we do?'.  Well I don't wanna spoon feed everything but getting in at a point where SC's volatility lowers a bit is good.  Be patient and don't be scared on missing out in some trades.  You can't ride them all.

[tokeweed]

Reversals?





Check out the charts of AMP/BTC and XRP/BTC above.  Would you say that those two tokens have established a reversal due to the crash of BTC?  I think some of the alts will start going up unless Bitcoin goes on a crazy mania rampage again.  Which it won't.  Well not for a while at least... 

[tokeweed]

LBC/BTC:  Going Super Nova?



So yeah, the first thing I did when I noticed LBC was moving I immediately make a thread about it here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1752048.0

I was surprised that no one was really interested in the move as it has the makings of becoming a 'Super Nova'.  That's a term coined by a day trader named Timothy Sykes.  Look him up and watch his videos.

The next thing I did was go to Coinmarketap and look at its market capitalization.  Again it was surprising that it was valued under 1m USD (during that time).  Imagine if it could get pumped all the way to the top 10.  So we could either trade it and make some BTC profit or just be in the sidelines and whine about how altcoins are all a scam.  Your pick.