NFL/NCAAF 2016 Picks, Tips, Discussion

[Junko]

nice hits brother!

Worked out good cause you got the money lines and I got the cover taking the
big points.

Looking forward to next week.

Thanks, m8. Right, I got the MLs and you won vs the spread. I think I remember we did that or something similar a couple weeks ago too where we won on overlapping bets or something.  Winner, winner, chicken dinner. 

Philadelphia Eagles - Green Bay Packers. Is Eagles should be nice @1.50 for betting while they will at their comfort zone. I need your suggestion about this pick?

Hey mate, thanks for following my thread. As for advice, when it comes to money, finances, investing, stock/forex trading and gambling, I tend not to tell/advise people specifically what to do with their money/bets. I prefer to tell a person(s) what I personally would do and happily share the reasons why. Then let that person make their own decision as to what to do or not do with that information based on their own judgement. That way, that person is responsible for their own decisions and plus, that person gets the credit for winning (or losing) their own bet.

So with all that said, I don't think I will be making a play on this game, but if I were, I would personally take the Eagles ML if the odds are 1.50 or higher.

Eagles are 5-0 at home. GB is 1-4 on the road.

Eagles WRs have a glaring tendency to drop even perfectly thrown balls and Carson Wentz is not clutch and very inconsistent with his deep throws. Also, whoever it is that calls the offensive plays for Philadelphia is horrible. However, Eagles dominate at home with special teams and defense. Their front seven should be able to put enough pressure on Rodgers to force him into making enough bad throws. Even when Rodgers is on his game, the Packers as a whole are in disarray. There defense can't stop anybody right now. The Eagles are still alive for the playoffs so they have the incentive.

So yeah, if I were picking this game, I would be ok with Eagles ML with odds close to or higher than 1.50.

Looks like the lines and odds are moving as I write. Sorry I didn't reply sooner. Good Luck, mate.

ps. The spread is currently Eagles -4.5 right now. Again, I don't think I'll be betting this game, but if I were, I would lean towards taking GB and the points. Like I said, Wentz is not clutch. Eagles will have to be relying on their defense and special teams. I will watch the game and be checking the halftime line. Maybe make a play then depending on feels.

[Junko]

@2012, Rodgers was on his game last night and the Packers defense wasn't a liability. I hate that you lost your ML bet (if you did end up making it). I didn't bet this game because I try to stay away from games that involve two crappy teams.


Thursday Night Football. NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (2.126) @ Minnesota Vikings

Let's see, Vikings are 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home. But the Cowboys are 5-0 both straight up and ATS in away games. Minnesota is ranked 3rd in defense, but Dallas has faced top ranked defenses many times this year and won. Also Minnesota is ranked last in the league in total offense. I think it will be close early as Minnesota's defense will slow the Cowboys down. But Dallas' offense, as it usually does, will make the necessary adjustments by halftime and wear down the Viking's defense who, despite their #3 ranking, still allows 100 rushing yards per game on avg and the teams they have played have been mostly passing teams. I think the league's leading rusher, Zeke Elliot behind that big Dallas offense line will be featured a lot and will be effective over the course of the game.

[th3nolo]

@2012, Rodgers was on his game last night and the Packers defense wasn't a liability. I hate that you lost your ML bet (if you did end up making it). I didn't bet this game because I try to stay away from games that involve two crappy teams.


Thursday Night Football. NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (2.126) @ Minnesota Vikings

Let's see, Vikings are 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home. But the Cowboys are 5-0 both straight up and ATS in away games. Minnesota is ranked 3rd in defense, but Dallas has faced top ranked defenses many times this year and won. Also Minnesota is ranked last in the league in total offense. I think it will be close early as Minnesota's defense will slow the Cowboys down. But Dallas' offense, as it usually does, will make the necessary adjustments by halftime and wear down the Viking's defense who, despite their #3 ranking, still allows 100 rushing yards per game on avg and the teams they have played have been mostly passing teams. I think the league's leading rusher, Zeke Elliot behind that big Dallas offense line will be featured a lot and will be effective over the course of the game.

I like this pick Vikings are playing really weird. They started the season really well but things are going wrong and they need to recover vs a Cowboys with 10-1 and I believe they will don't put a less effort this game because now in his best streak.

[vella85]

@2012, Rodgers was on his game last night and the Packers defense wasn't a liability. I hate that you lost your ML bet (if you did end up making it). I didn't bet this game because I try to stay away from games that involve two crappy teams.


Thursday Night Football. NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (2.126) @ Minnesota Vikings

Let's see, Vikings are 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home. But the Cowboys are 5-0 both straight up and ATS in away games. Minnesota is ranked 3rd in defense, but Dallas has faced top ranked defenses many times this year and won. Also Minnesota is ranked last in the league in total offense. I think it will be close early as Minnesota's defense will slow the Cowboys down. But Dallas' offense, as it usually does, will make the necessary adjustments by halftime and wear down the Viking's defense who, despite their #3 ranking, still allows 100 rushing yards per game on avg and the teams they have played have been mostly passing teams. I think the league's leading rusher, Zeke Elliot behind that big Dallas offense line will be featured a lot and will be effective over the course of the game.

Oh man you were so close to hitting this tip mate. The Cowboys looked set to cover until late, I didn't want to risk anything on this game so I decided to sit this one out but I did like the Cowboys but only at the money line. I'm still working on Sundays games and good luck with the rest of your picks.

[Junko]

@2012, Rodgers was on his game last night and the Packers defense wasn't a liability. I hate that you lost your ML bet (if you did end up making it). I didn't bet this game because I try to stay away from games that involve two crappy teams.


Thursday Night Football. NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (2.126) @ Minnesota Vikings

Let's see, Vikings are 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home. But the Cowboys are 5-0 both straight up and ATS in away games. Minnesota is ranked 3rd in defense, but Dallas has faced top ranked defenses many times this year and won. Also Minnesota is ranked last in the league in total offense. I think it will be close early as Minnesota's defense will slow the Cowboys down. But Dallas' offense, as it usually does, will make the necessary adjustments by halftime and wear down the Viking's defense who, despite their #3 ranking, still allows 100 rushing yards per game on avg and the teams they have played have been mostly passing teams. I think the league's leading rusher, Zeke Elliot behind that big Dallas offense line will be featured a lot and will be effective over the course of the game.

Oh man you were so close to hitting this tip mate. The Cowboys looked set to cover until late, I didn't want to risk anything on this game so I decided to sit this one out but I did like the Cowboys but only at the money line. I'm still working on Sundays games and good luck with the rest of your picks.

Hey, vella. Yep, Dallas 17, Minnesota 15 so this bet was a loss unfortunately. It was a close game the whole way through. Just when it appeared Dallas would pull away and ice the game near the end, Minnesota came back to score a late touchdown closing the gap. Thanks for the good luck this weekend. Good luck to you too, m8. Gonna work on my picks as well and will be interested to see your tips as well.

Dallas (-3.5) @ Minnesota Result: Loss -1.00 bet units

Current Total: +1.42 bet units

[shadobitz]

Sorry to see you lost your bet -3.5 ( 2.126) even odds for straight bet was not bad as I picked them ( 1.62) and Dallas Cowboys won this match in the end. Good to see this topic about NFL discussion. You have good knowledge and your selection of match is pretty impressive. Good luck will keep eye on this thread for upcoming matches.

[Junko]

Sorry to see you lost your bet -3.5 ( 2.126) even odds for straight bet was not bad as I picked them ( 1.62) and Dallas Cowboys won this match in the end. Good to see this topic about NFL discussion. You have good knowledge and your selection of match is pretty impressive. Good luck will keep eye on this thread for upcoming matches.

Thanks. I should have some Sunday NFL picks up by Saturday evening. I do have one college football pick for tomorrow.


Saturday College Football, NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Clemson Tigers -10 (1.897) vs. Virginia Tech

ACC Championship Game, neutral site. A win for Clemson will likely give them a berth to the 4-team College Football Playoffs. This could be a shootout as both teams have shown they can score lots of points. But Clemson has the better defense of the two and it seems VaTech has a fumbling the ball problem. I think Clemson wins outright, but I'm betting the spread for more value.

[cryptoburst61]

Sorry to see you lost your bet -3.5 ( 2.126) even odds for straight bet was not bad as I picked them ( 1.62) and Dallas Cowboys won this match in the end. Good to see this topic about NFL discussion. You have good knowledge and your selection of match is pretty impressive. Good luck will keep eye on this thread for upcoming matches.

Thanks. I should have some Sunday NFL picks up by Saturday evening. I do have one college football pick for tomorrow.


Saturday College Football, NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Clemson Tigers -10 (1.897) vs. Virginia Tech

ACC Championship Game, neutral site. A win for Clemson will likely give them a berth to the 4-team College Football Playoffs. This could be a shootout as both teams have shown they can score lots of points. But Clemson has the better defense of the two and it seems VaTech has a fumbling the ball problem. I think Clemson wins outright, but I'm betting the spread for more value.

i like this tip but i think i will bet on the tigers at the money line just to be safe. i will waiting for your nfl tips on Sundays games, i so far put a bet on the steelers to win at the money line and also the broncos to win at the money line. and now i just wait for you and vella to post your nfl tips and then i maybe take a parlay bet.

[DirectDice]

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[Junko]

@DirectDice, Thanks for the invite. I'll check it out.

Saturday College Football, NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Clemson Tigers -10 (1.897) vs. Virginia Tech

ACC Championship Game, neutral site. A win for Clemson will likely give them a berth to the 4-team College Football Playoffs. This could be a shootout as both teams have shown they can score lots of points. But Clemson has the better defense of the two and it seems VaTech has a fumbling the ball problem. I think Clemson wins outright, but I'm betting the spread for more value.

i like this tip but i think i will bet on the tigers at the money line just to be safe. i will waiting for your nfl tips on Sundays games, i so far put a bet on the steelers to win at the money line and also the broncos to win at the money line. and now i just wait for you and vella to post your nfl tips and then i maybe take a parlay bet.

Hey, thanks for following. Regarding your Steelers ML bet, I think you have a good chance with that. Steelers are at home. They loked good against Indy last week who was without their starting QB, Andrew Luck. Antonio Brown had a hat trick of TDs and LeVeon Bell had a strong game with 120 yds rushing and a TD. New York also had a strong performance last week, but it was against the lowly Cleveland Browns. And your Denver ML bet is safe I believe. Even though Denver will be starting rookie Paxton Lynch in place of injured Siemian, their defense should carry them against the Jags.


Sunday NFL, NitrogenSports, 1% bets, my picks in bold:


Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders -3 (1.939)

The Bills are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the AFC. Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Bills can win SU if Shady McCoy gets on track, but I'm going to lean towards the Raiders covering.

*EDIT: I made a mistake with the decimal point when booking my Raiders bet. I wagered 0.001 instead of my usual 1% wager of 0.01. So I made another bet slip with a 1% wager for a total of a 1.1% bet. In case anyone is wondering why I have two bet slips for the Raiders below.


Washington Redskins +2.5 (1.948) @ Arizona Cardinals

Redskins are 7-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC opponents. Arizona hasn't looked good this season. Carson Palmer has a 61% completion rate with 15 TDs and 11 INTs. Washington will be without TE Jordan Reed due to injury, but Cousins will still have enough weapons to throw to with Garçon, Crowder and DJax. Washington also has Kelley who is running the ball well. If the Redskins have good playcalling and execute, they should win outright.


Denver Broncos -3.5 (1.996) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

As I stated above, Denver will be starting rookie QB Paxton Lynch, but as long as he doesn't make too many mistakes, Denver's defense should be able to carry the team to victory. The Bronco's defense has a penchant for causing turnovers and Jacksonville is just not a good enough team period, even without having to overcome turnovers.


3 Team Teaser (6 points, Ties Lose): 1% bet, 2.500 odds
   New England Patriots -13 (+6)
   Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (+6)
   Green Bay Packers -6 (+6)

I like all three of these teams to win and thought about doing a ML parlay, but decided to go with a 3-team 6-pt teaser as I feel a little bit more comfortable with NE having to win by 8 pts against LA with Gronk out of the game, Seattle giving 1.5 to Carolina who is 1-4 on the road and GB having to win outright vs Houston, gambling that Rodgers(hamstring) will be good to go for the Packers.

[vella85]

@DirectDice, Thanks for the invite. I'll check it out.

Saturday College Football, NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Clemson Tigers -10 (1.897) vs. Virginia Tech

ACC Championship Game, neutral site. A win for Clemson will likely give them a berth to the 4-team College Football Playoffs. This could be a shootout as both teams have shown they can score lots of points. But Clemson has the better defense of the two and it seems VaTech has a fumbling the ball problem. I think Clemson wins outright, but I'm betting the spread for more value.

i like this tip but i think i will bet on the tigers at the money line just to be safe. i will waiting for your nfl tips on Sundays games, i so far put a bet on the steelers to win at the money line and also the broncos to win at the money line. and now i just wait for you and vella to post your nfl tips and then i maybe take a parlay bet.

Hey, thanks for following. Regarding your Steelers ML bet, I think you have a good chance with that. Steelers are at home. They loked good against Indy last week who was without their starting QB, Andrew Luck. Antonio Brown had a hat trick of TDs and LeVeon Bell had a strong game with 120 yds rushing and a TD. New York also had a strong performance last week, but it was against the lowly Cleveland Browns. And your Denver ML bet is safe I believe. Even though Denver will be starting rookie Paxton Lynch in place of injured Siemian, their defense should carry them against the Jags.


Sunday NFL, NitrogenSports, 1% bets, my picks in bold:


Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders -3 (1.939)

The Bills are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the AFC. Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Bills can win SU if Shady McCoy gets on track, but I'm going to lean towards the Raiders covering.

*EDIT: I made a mistake with the decimal point when booking my Raiders bet. I wagered 0.001 instead of my usual 1% wager of 0.01. So I made another bet slip with a 1% wager for a total of a 1.1% bet. In case anyone is wondering why I have two bet slips for the Raiders below.


Washington Redskins +2.5 (1.948) @ Arizona Cardinals

Redskins are 7-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC opponents. Arizona hasn't looked good this season. Carson Palmer has a 61% completion rate with 15 TDs and 11 INTs. Washington will be without TE Jordan Reed due to injury, but Cousins will still have enough weapons to throw to with Garçon, Crowder and DJax. Washington also has Kelley who is running the ball well. If the Redskins have good playcalling and execute, they should win outright.


Denver Broncos -3.5 (1.996) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

As I stated above, Denver will be starting rookie QB Paxton Lynch, but as long as he doesn't make too many mistakes, Denver's defense should be able to carry the team to victory. The Bronco's defense has a penchant for causing turnovers and Jacksonville is just not a good enough team period, even without having to overcome turnovers.


3 Team Teaser (6 points, Ties Lose): 1% bet, 2.500 odds
   New England Patriots -13 (+6)
   Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (+6)
   Green Bay Packers -6 (+6)

I like all three of these teams to win and thought about doing a ML parlay, but decided to go with a 3-team 6-pt teaser as I feel a little bit more comfortable with NE having to win by 8 pts against LA with Gronk out of the game, Seattle giving 1.5 to Carolina who is 1-4 on the road and GB having to win outright vs Houston, gambling that Rodgers(hamstring) will be good to go for the Packers.

Hey mate,

Looks like the Clemson/Virginia Tech game is going to go down to the wire and hopefully they can cover the -10 for you.

We almost have the same tips for this week in the NFL mate. I also like the Redskins to cover the spread and to be honest I actually think they can win that game against the Cardinals. I also like Denver but I prefer them at the money line just to be safe however I actually like the Bills to cover the +3.5 spread so we are different with that pick. Anyway good luck with your picks mate and as I said hopefully Clemson can cover the spread for you.

[Junko]

Hey mate,

Looks like the Clemson/Virginia Tech game is going to go down to the wire and hopefully they can cover the -10 for you.

We almost have the same tips for this week in the NFL mate. I also like the Redskins to cover the spread and to be honest I actually think they can win that game against the Cardinals. I also like Denver but I prefer them at the money line just to be safe however I actually like the Bills to cover the +3.5 spread so we are different with that pick. Anyway good luck with your picks mate and as I said hopefully Clemson can cover the spread for you.

Hey, mate. Looks like Clemson let up and allowed VaTech to make a closer game of it, giving me a loss for the bet. Yeah, I'm taking a gamble with Paxton Lynch at QB for Denver. I'm counting on their defense to snuff the Jags. The Bills can win/cover vs. the Raiders for sure. If they do, it will be because Shady shreds their defense. I took the Raiders to cover, even though they screwed me last time, because they seem to have that weird magic similar to the Cowboys that makes them win even when they should have lost. Plus, they are playing at home and the Bills are travelling all the way across the country. Anyway, good luck to you too. hopefully things turn out good for both of us tomorrow overall.


Clemson -10 vs. Va Tech: Loss -1.00 bet units

Current Total: +0.42 bet units

[vella85]

Hey mate,

Looks like the Clemson/Virginia Tech game is going to go down to the wire and hopefully they can cover the -10 for you.

We almost have the same tips for this week in the NFL mate. I also like the Redskins to cover the spread and to be honest I actually think they can win that game against the Cardinals. I also like Denver but I prefer them at the money line just to be safe however I actually like the Bills to cover the +3.5 spread so we are different with that pick. Anyway good luck with your picks mate and as I said hopefully Clemson can cover the spread for you.

Hey, mate. Looks like Clemson let up and allowed VaTech to make a closer game of it, giving me a loss for the bet. Yeah, I'm taking a gamble with Paxton Lynch at QB for Denver. I'm counting on their defense to snuff the Jags. The Bills can win/cover vs. the Raiders for sure. If they do, it will be because Shady shreds their defense. I took the Raiders to cover, even though they screwed me last time, because they seem to have that weird magic similar to the Cowboys that makes them win even when they should have lost. Plus, they are playing at home and the Bills are travelling all the way across the country. Anyway, good luck to you too. hopefully things turn out good for both of us tomorrow overall.


Clemson -10 vs. Va Tech: Loss -1.00 bet units

Current Total: +0.42 bet units

Yeah sorry about Clemson not covering the spread for you. I myself had a loss in the NCAAF yesterday but hopefully we make up for it with our NFL bets tomorrow. Thanks mate and I decided to go with the Redskins to win at the money line instead of the spread as I think they have a big shot at winning the game. Good luck!

[shadobitz]

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams although New England Patriots is play in their strong zone and no doubt they will win this match without any serious problem, so from my point of view under 46.5 points seems good for betting @1.70 there is chance is so good there.

[Junko]

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams although New England Patriots is play in their strong zone and no doubt they will win this match without any serious problem, so from my point of view under 46.5 points seems good for betting @1.70 there is chance is so good there.

Los Angeles ranks dead last in points scored per game and Gronkowski is out for New England. The temperature will be around freezing as well so the Under does seem like a good bet.

[vella85]

Well done Junko on your picks mate. The Raiders got the job done once again coming from behind, I thought I was in with a shot with the Bills +3 to cover but it wasn't to be. The Raiders are looking like a real contender this season for the Super Bowl. Also congrats on the 3 team teaser but if you had of taken all 3 of those teams at the spread you would of cleaned up big time but at least you won mate. The Skins stuffed us both up.

[Junko]

Well done Junko on your picks mate. The Raiders got the job done once again coming from behind, I thought I was in with a shot with the Bills +3 to cover but it wasn't to be. The Raiders are looking like a real contender this season for the Super Bowl. Also congrats on the 3 team teaser but if you had of taken all 3 of those teams at the spread you would of cleaned up big time but at least you won mate. The Skins stuffed us both up.

Thanks, Bud. The Raiders surprised me, tbh. By hafltime I was already counting the bet as a loss. You're right on the teaser. I would have won twice as much from those games if I had bet them separately vs the spread, but I just wasn't confident they wouldn't cover that big. Turns out they all covered easily. Yeah, the skins blew it.


Sunday's Results:

Oakland Raiders -3 (1.939) : Win +1.03 bet units (from a 1.1% bet)
Washington Redskins +2.5 (1.948) : Loss -1.00 bet units
Denver Broncos -3.5 (1.996) : Win +1.00 bet units
3 Team Teaser +6 (2.50) : Win +1.50 bet units
     New England Patriots -13 (+6) W
     Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (+6) W
     Green Bay Packers -6 (+6) W

Sunday Total: +2.53 bet units
Thread Total: +2.95 bet units

[shadobitz]

Great job buddy overall that is very impressive just 1 lost that time you was unlucky with close fight, I also won my bet on last night there, there is upcoming event between New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts so I will pick under 50 @1.815, both sides are unstable and it will be hard to go over 40, so what you say about this?

[Junko]

Great job buddy overall that is very impressive just 1 lost that time you was unlucky with close fight, I also won my bet on last night there, there is upcoming event between New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts so I will pick under 50 @1.815, both sides are unstable and it will be hard to go over 40, so what you say about this?

Thanks, man. And congrats to you too on your win! Regarding the Jets-Colts game, I like the Under 50 @1.815. I agree, over 40 pts will be hard. Andrew Luck is back for the Colts at QB, but even though the Jets are a bad team overall, their defensive front seven is pretty stout and will be a challenge for the Colt's offensive line. And the Jets have struggled to put points on the board, averaging around just 17 pts per game. It won't be a shoot out, but even if the Colts blow out the Jets, it should still be under 50 pts. Good Luck.

[Junko]

I have a play for Monday Night's Colts-Jets game (NFL).

NitrogenSports, NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Monday Dec. 5: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (1.905) @ New York Jets

Last week's Jets game against their hated division rivals, Patriots, was the Jet's "Super Bowl" in which they played close and hard, but eventually fell short. They will be emotionally drained and won't have much to give against the Colts Monday night. For the Colts, franchise QB Andrew Luck will be good to go having cleared concussion protocol and are only one game back in the division race, which will be their only way of getting into the playoffs. So they should be highly motivated. It will be a bit of a chilly night at Met Life Stadium, but the weather will be clear with a slight 5-10mph breeze and 0% chance of any precipitaion. Expect Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton to hook up regularly.