NFL/NCAAF 2016 Picks, Tips, Discussion

[Junko]

The purpose of this ongoing thread for is anyone who doesn't want to start their own personal tipster thread or to hijack other's personal tipster threads to discuss NFL and NCAAF match ups, betting lines, tips, picks, predictions, stats, injuries, news, game updates etc. Anyone who does have their own tipster thread is of course also welcome to post their NFL/NCAAF tips/picks or related here.

I'll be posting my picks here and like I said, anyone is welcome to post their NFL/NCAAF picks, tips, predictions, opinions, observations etc.

I'll start with my Thanksgiving Day picks:

Nitrogen Sports (my picks in bold):

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Minnesota +2 (1.905 odds) This game has already started and the Lions have gotten off to a fast start. Minnesota is going to have to make some serious halftime adjustments or else I'm screwed.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys: Washington +7 (1.809 odds) The line for this game has been fluctuating since Monday (currently it's Cowboys -5.5). Both offenses are clicking and both defenses have definite weaknesses. I think this will be a high scoring, but close game. I think the Cowboys will actually win outright, but like I said it'll be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts: Pittsburgh -7.5 (1.976 odds) Andrew Luck is confirmed out. I think the line was Pittsburgh -10 at one point yesterday, but lots of money coming in on the Colts obv. The Colt's replacement QB (forgot his name) has thrown one pass since 2013 where he started in just two games. He is 1-1 in those games completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 218.5 yards, zero touchdowns, three interceptions and a 63.9 passer rating. He is also working on a short week so I don't see him being very effective. This is a must win game for both teams.


Happy Thanksgiving Day!

[vella85]

Hey Junko,

Nice to see you finally start a topic with your NFL picks.

Looks like the Vikings stuffed us both up and stupid me I went off the Lions as I was liking them to win a few days ago but I decided to pick the Vikings instead for some value.

I see that most of the money for the Cowboys/Redskins game is on the Redskins at the money line currently 62% and also the point spread has come in to 6 points now. I still like the Cowboys to get the win.

On the Colts/Steelers game the money is pretty much even on both teams with 55% on the Steelers and 45% on the Colts money line but on the 8 point spread the Steelers have it at 66% I went with the Colts at the money line and got on @4.20 I know it's a big risk but as you said both teams need a win to keep their playoff chances alive but I think the Colts need it more as they are 1 game back behind the Texans so a win would put them on equal wins with the Texans to play the Chargers at home but how much has that Raiders game taken out of the Texans as the conditions were tough for both teams in that game.

Good luck! 

[th3nolo]

The purpose of this ongoing thread for is anyone who doesn't want to start their own personal tipster thread or to hijack other's personal tipster threads to discuss NFL and NCAAF match ups, betting lines, tips, picks, predictions, stats, injuries, news, game updates etc. Anyone who does have their own tipster thread is of course also welcome to post their NFL/NCAAF tips/picks or related here.

I'll be posting my picks here and like I said, anyone is welcome to post their NFL/NCAAF picks, tips, predictions, opinions, observations etc.

I'll start with my Thanksgiving Day picks:

Nitrogen Sports (my picks in bold):

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Minnesota +2 (1.905 odds) This game has already started and the Lions have gotten off to a fast start. Minnesota is going to have to make some serious halftime adjustments or else I'm screwed.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys: Washington +7 (1.809 odds) The line for this game has been fluctuating since Monday (currently it's Cowboys -5.5). Both offenses are clicking and both defenses have definite weaknesses. I think this will be a high scoring, but close game. I think the Cowboys will actually win outright, but like I said it'll be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts: Pittsburgh -7.5 (1.976 odds) Andrew Luck is confirmed out. I think the line was Pittsburgh -10 at one point yesterday, but lots of money coming in on the Colts obv. The Colt's replacement QB (forgot his name) has thrown one pass since 2013 where he started in just two games. He is 1-1 in those games completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 218.5 yards, zero touchdowns, three interceptions and a 63.9 passer rating. He is also working on a short week so I don't see him being very effective. This is a must win game for both teams.


Happy Thanksgiving Day!

your pick of Minnesota +2 it lost for 1 point however you still have chance to win those two picks remaining Washington +7 it's great I feel this will be a closed match and Pittsburgh -7.5 I don't know it's hard to tell you what will happen the performance against Cleveland was poor the last week I feel that the success of that game was due more to errors of Cleveland.

[Rubberduckie]

Heya junko!!

good to see on some of the games I like (redskins)

man tough result in that vikings game. Brutal ending, when it looked like
the vikes were going to win...

[Junko]

Rubberduckie & vella85: Yeah, taking the Vikings was a value pick. If only Sam Bradford hadn't thrown that choke INT at the end. That F'ed me good. It thought they might at least get the winning field goal. At worst, get to OT.

It's halftime now in the Cowboys-Redskins game. We'll see who can make the better adjustments.

Good point, the3nolo. Pittsburgh -7.5 does seem like a lot, but I'm banking on the Colt's back up QB not having any type of chemistry with T.Y. Hilton and also just not having what it takes to handle Pittsburgh as his past numbers have shown when he's come in to fill in for the starter.

[vella85]

Nice work Junko on your Thanksgiving picks 2 from 3 correct and you and I were both unlucky with the Vikings. I won with Dallas at the money line which I got on @1.40 but my value picks went down, well I know the Colts ain't going to win lol and it looks as though the Steelers are easily going to cover the -7.5 spread. I must admit Scott Tolzien has done well but it got no protection at all and a couple of dropped catches doesn't help him. The Colts could of been competitive which I was hoping for but the other players around Tolzien let the team down.

Looks like my Super Bowl pick for the Colts to win is now over but I still have the Giants and Vikings on to win. The Giants are the forgotten team which are starting to find some form but the Dallas Cowboys are over shadowing them with the season they are having.
 

[Junko]

Nice work Junko on your Thanksgiving picks 2 from 3 correct and you and I were both unlucky with the Vikings. I won with Dallas at the money line which I got on @1.40 but my value picks went down, well I know the Colts ain't going to win lol and it looks as though the Steelers are easily going to cover the -7.5 spread. I must admit Scott Tolzien has done well but it got no protection at all and a couple of dropped catches doesn't help him. The Colts could of been competitive which I was hoping for but the other players around Tolzien let the team down.

Looks like my Super Bowl pick for the Colts to win is now over but I still have the Giants and Vikings on to win. The Giants are the forgotten team which are starting to find some form but the Dallas Cowboys are over shadowing them with the season they are having.
 

Thanks, bud. Yeah, just missed on the Vikings, but I'm happy enough with today's results. As for your SB picks, looks like the Colt's playoff hopes just got dimmer. They would need to win the division now it seems. And while they're not out of it yet, it's not looking too good for them. I agree, the Giants are overlooked with all the attention Dallas is getting. The Giants 7-3 record is nothing to laugh at. They might not overtake the Cowboys for the division lead since their only easy game the rest of the season will be this weekend against Cleveland, but they should still easily make the playoffs.


My results for today:

Minnesota +2 (1.905) : Loss -1.00 bet units
Washington +7 (1.809) : Win +0.81 bet units
Pittsburgh -7.5 (1.976) : Win +0.98 bet units

Today total: +0.79 bet units

[Junko]

Two college football plays for Saturday. NitrogenSports, 1% bets, picks in bold:


Michigan @Ohio State -5 (1.931)

The Buckeyes offense has been inconsistent this season, but their defense has been strong all year, allowing just 13 points per game. Big rivalry game where the loser will be knocked out of the College Football playoff rankings.


Auburn @Alabama -17.5 (1.897)

There are a myriad of reasons why top-ranked Bama will should cover, but the main reason is that Auburn is one-dimensional. Their strength is the running game, which is very good when they play normal teams. However, they won't be playing anything close to a normal team in Alabama. The Tide will be featuring the nation's best run defense which will force Auburn to have to go to the air which is not one of their strengths at all not having thrown for 300 yards in any of their games this season.

[Junko]

The Michigan-Ohio St. was an amazing game. So much tension, so much on the line, so much drama. One for the ages. A great game from  the perspective of a college football fan. From someone betting Ohio State -5, not so much. >.<

Auburn-Alabama was a lot closer than it should have been, but Bama still covered, barely.


Saturday's results:

Ohio St. -5 (1.93) : LOSS -1.00 bet units
Alabama -17.5 (1.897) : WIN +0.90 bet units

Saturday Total: -0.10 bet units


About to go out with some friends, but will post some NFL picks for tomorrow later tonight when I get back.

[vella85]

The Michigan-Ohio St. was an amazing game. So much tension, so much on the line, so much drama. One for the ages. A great game from  the perspective of a college football fan. From someone betting Ohio State -5, not so much. >.<

Auburn-Alabama was a lot closer than it should have been, but Bama still covered, barely.


Saturday's results:

Ohio St. -5 (1.93) : LOSS -1.00 bet units
Alabama -17.5 (1.897) : WIN +0.90 bet units

Saturday Total: -0.10 bet units


About to go out with some friends, but will post some NFL picks for tomorrow later tonight when I get back.

Yeah it was a great game and I had the opposite to you as I had Michigan +5 and they were so close to winning the game. Alabama just covered the spread and didn't really look like a $1.03 favorite lol Well at least the loss wasn't that bad as it could of been worse with Alabama missing the spread. Good luck with your NFL picks, I'll be posting mine soon as well.

[cryptoburst61]

I am waiting for you nfl tips for sunday i already follow vella85 nfl tips and i also like to follow you tips because you have good strike rate with nfl tips. Rubberduckie also sometime have good nfl tips.

[Junko]

The Michigan-Ohio St. was an amazing game. So much tension, so much on the line, so much drama. One for the ages. A great game from  the perspective of a college football fan. From someone betting Ohio State -5, not so much. >.<

Auburn-Alabama was a lot closer than it should have been, but Bama still covered, barely.


Saturday's results:

Ohio St. -5 (1.93) : LOSS -1.00 bet units
Alabama -17.5 (1.897) : WIN +0.90 bet units

Saturday Total: -0.10 bet units


About to go out with some friends, but will post some NFL picks for tomorrow later tonight when I get back.

Yeah it was a great game and I had the opposite to you as I had Michigan +5 and they were so close to winning the game. Alabama just covered the spread and didn't really look like a $1.03 favorite lol Well at least the loss wasn't that bad as it could of been worse with Alabama missing the spread. Good luck with your NFL picks, I'll be posting mine soon as well.

Yeah, I saw your Michigan pick, gratz! And yeah, good thing for me Bama covered. But even though they just barely covered, for some weird reason, while watching the game, I was never really worried that they wouldn't cover. Anyway, on to my NFL picks...

I am waiting for you nfl tips for sunday i already follow vella85 nfl tips and i also like to follow you tips because you have good strike rate with nfl tips. Rubberduckie also sometime have good nfl tips.

Hey, mate. Thanks for following.   Yeah, vella85 and Rubberduckie are really good tipsters. I always look to their tip threads.

*Note: These picks were made earlier in the week (11/22) so the lines and odds may have changed since, so keep that in mind when you consider them. In the future, I will post my picks closer to the time I book them.

NitrogenSports, 1% bets, picks in bold:


Cinncinati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) (1.957)

So the Bengal's season is pretty much over. They have a negative points differential, are 1-5 on the road and they will be without two key weapon's on offense - WR A.J. Green and RB G. Bernard. The Raven's on the otherhand have everything to play for and will be looking to get an important win at home and regain some of their pride after getting manhandled by Dallas last week.


Tennessee Titans (-4.5) (1.930) @ Chicago Bears

The Bears have been playing like shit the whole season. QB J. Cutler is listed as doubtful with an injury to his throwing shoulder so it appears back up QB Matt Barkley will be getting the start in his place. The Bears are also without WR Alshon Jeffery who is currently serving a four game suspension for PEDs. TD's have been hard enough to come by for the Bears even when Cutler and Jeffery were plaiying. As long as they don't make any mistakes, Tennessee should be able to cover.


Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders (-3.5) (2.046)

Carolina's LB Luke Kuechly is out for the game for concussion protocol. He is the heart of that defense, but even if he were healthy and playing, I still think the Panthers would lose. Oakland is on a roll and is starting to be looked at as a SB contender. Carolina is 1-3 on the road and will be travelling across the country. Still not an easy game for the Raiders, but I think they cover.


5 Leg Parlay, *0.25% bet, odds: 4.372

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns - New York Giants (ML)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore Ravens (ML)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills - Buffalo (ML)
San Francisco @ Miami Dolphins - Miami (ML)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets - New England (ML)

- Cleveland confirmed tanking this season.
- Bengals with two key injuries on offense. See above.
- Jax QB B. Bortles leads the league with 13 INTs and is playing with a bad shoulder.
- SF 0-4 on the road, last in the league vs. the run - giving up a whopping 179.5 yds rushing per game avg.
- Jets' Darelle Revis not the CB he used to be. 0 INTs this season, opposing QB's passer rating when targeting Revis: 105%. Tom Brady is expected to start and he'll be looking to continue his F.U. Tour this week against hated division rival.

[maxhor]

New York Jets vs New England Patriots I placed my bet on New England Patriots 1st Half @1.40 because they are offensive side and I'm pretty sure it will be one sided encounter for them as New York Jets are very poor at the moment so it will be easy choice to make money.

[Junko]

New York Jets vs New England Patriots I placed my bet on New England Patriots 1st Half @1.40 because they are offensive side and I'm pretty sure it will be one sided encounter for them as New York Jets are very poor at the moment so it will be easy choice to make money.

Yeah, that looks like a good bet. New England should get off to a fast start. Also, New England (5-0 in away games) may be the visiting team, but they aren't traveling far at all, practically just down the road. And like you said, the Jets (2-4 at home) are really bad. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more New England fans in attendance than Jets supporters.

[vella85]

Great work Junko on your picks mate, so far you got them all right and for a moment there I thought the Bears would stuff up your Titans -4.5 spread pick. To be honest the Bears should of won that game late, how did that player drop that pass in the endzone? It was an easy catch but he dropped it and also on 4th and goal another Bears player dropped which looked like a great pass even the commentators couldn't understand how these easily catches were dropped lol Anyway at least you won and good luck with your parlay, just need the Patriots to win which I think they should but for my bet I would also like the Jets to cover the +7.5 spread.

[Junko]

Great work Junko on your picks mate, so far you got them all right and for a moment there I thought the Bears would stuff up your Titans -4.5 spread pick. To be honest the Bears should of won that game late, how did that player drop that pass in the endzone? It was an easy catch but he dropped it and also on 4th and goal another Bears player dropped which looked like a great pass even the commentators couldn't understand how these easily catches were dropped lol Anyway at least you won and good luck with your parlay, just need the Patriots to win which I think they should but for my bet I would also like the Jets to cover the +7.5 spread.

Thanks mate. Yeah, the Bears really surprised me, rolling up 411 yds on offense. Their back up QB did really well despite throwing two INTs. But like you said, they blew their chance (luckily for me). Wilson put a sick move on the cb and Barkley dropped a perfect dime right in his hands. He should have caught that. My Raiders -3.5 pick was looking good early as they were cruising with a big lead. But then the wheels came off early in the third quarter when Carr got injured. Oh well, can't win 'em all.

Overall, it was a good day so I can't really complain. My 5 team parlay made it through which was nice. My only regret would be that I only made a quarter sized bet on it. Oh well, I'll still happily take it.


Results for today:

Baltimore Ravens (-4) (1.957) : WIN +0.96 bet units
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) (1.930):WIN +0.93 bet units
Oakland Raiders (-3.5) (2.046): LOSS -1.00 bet units
5 Leg Parlay               (4.372): WIN +0.84 bet units      
   New York Giants (ML) W
   Baltimore Ravens (ML) W
   Buffalo Bills (ML) W      
   Miami Dolphins (ML) W
   New England Patriots (ML) W


Today Total: +1.73 bet units
Net Total: +2.42 bet units

[vella85]

Nice hit on the parlay mate and unlucky on the Raiders not covering the spread for you and they had many chances late to score a touchdown but the Panthers defense help strong to keep them to a field goal which in the end wasn't enough for you. I went 3 from 3 with my tips and I was worried late with the Jets maybe not covering the +7.5 spread but lucky they did for my sake. Overall between you myself and Rubberduckie we did well on this weeks NFL games. As I said I like how we are able to have different picks and get the wins most of the time.

[Junko]

Nice hit on the parlay mate and unlucky on the Raiders not covering the spread for you and they had many chances late to score a touchdown but the Panthers defense help strong to keep them to a field goal which in the end wasn't enough for you. I went 3 from 3 with my tips and I was worried late with the Jets maybe not covering the +7.5 spread but lucky they did for my sake. Overall between you myself and Rubberduckie we did well on this weeks NFL games. As I said I like how we are able to have different picks and get the wins most of the time.

Thanks again, vella. Oh wow, I made a mistake in your tipster thread. I thought you lost one of your picks. Shit, Gratz on 3-for-3. Nice one! And yeah, Rubberduckie did very well with his NFL picks too. I'm going to go fix my post in your thread now.

[Rubberduckie]

nice hits brother!

Worked out good cause you got the money lines and I got the cover taking the
big points.

Looking forward to next week.

[2012]

Philadelphia Eagles - Green Bay Packers. Is Eagles should be nice @1.50 for betting while they will at their comfort zone. I need your suggestion about this pick?