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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26381414 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
spooderman
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March 21, 2014, 10:00:49 PM

Adam you are a motivator of men.
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lyth0s
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March 21, 2014, 10:11:41 PM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday March 22

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3447 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = Vh/Vd, where Vh is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and Vd is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The trend assuemd now is the straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 3745.85, B = -99.49, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--21.  (It seems that there was indeed a break in the trend between Mar/18 and Mar/19, as suspected yesterday.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which today was 6.09 CNY/USD.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 00:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19.5 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3630 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3547 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~14 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 591 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 582 USD
Error: 9 USD

NOTE: By my count I still have 1 Note credit, so there is no Note today.



I predict $589 tomorrow.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871
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March 21, 2014, 11:03:00 PM

DDOS on the exchanges again.  I'd like to hunt these people down and repay their kindness.
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March 21, 2014, 11:05:29 PM

ejinte
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March 21, 2014, 11:08:40 PM


SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
aminorex
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March 21, 2014, 11:12:19 PM

DDOS on the exchanges again.  I'd like to hunt these people down and repay their kindness.

Actually, now that I have the mt.gox data, I might well be able to track these people down and remove the annoyance.
mah87
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March 21, 2014, 11:26:18 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?
adamstgBit
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March 21, 2014, 11:32:45 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!
mah87
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March 21, 2014, 11:33:28 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real  economy ?
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March 21, 2014, 11:36:01 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

Yea this confuses me too. Any bad news recently? I thought the only major thing was Mtgox finding 200K BTC. That's considered bad news? :/
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March 21, 2014, 11:39:44 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

This may be it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-china-report-bitcoin-price-drop-2014-3
PoolMinor
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March 21, 2014, 11:46:27 PM




Hmm, this makes perfect sense, people trying to hack into systems to steal something of only perceived value.
Do you re-read your comments before you hit the "post" button?
adamstgBit
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March 21, 2014, 11:47:21 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

Yea this confuses me too. Any bad news recently? I thought the only major thing was Mtgox finding 200K BTC. That's considered bad news? :/

finding 1/2 a billion of fiat would be better news...
mah87
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March 21, 2014, 11:47:53 PM




Hmm, this makes perfect sense, people trying to hack into systems to steal something of only perceived value.
Do you re-read your comments before you hit the "post" button?

Perceived value=market value =bubble =this is going down while people get it.. ?
JayJuanGee
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March 21, 2014, 11:50:59 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real  economy ?

Mah87:  If you already figured that you knew the answer to your question, then why did you ask? Your response certainly falls within the definition of a troll... To ask questions that cause others to do all the work and NOT to really contribute any value...
PoolMinor
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March 21, 2014, 11:51:39 PM




Hmm, this makes perfect sense, people trying to hack into systems to steal something of only perceived value.
Do you re-read your comments before you hit the "post" button?

I am sure we will know ahead of time, due to your coin/system failing long before Bitcoin.
adamstgBit
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March 21, 2014, 11:53:38 PM



what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real  economy ?

this cant be i buy and sell things with bitcoin all the time.
Adrian-x
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March 21, 2014, 11:57:48 PM

maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real  economy ?

some of you guys brighten up my day,
FTFU
maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real  economy ? now ripple on the other hand...  Grin Cheesy Cheesy
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March 22, 2014, 12:09:02 AM

oh boy, here we go again, I'm getting 502 errors on bitcointalk and bitcoinwisdom keeps timing out...

PULL ALL THE BIDS!!

LET THIS FUCKER TANK!!!

(start bid tranche at 450 and cross your fingers Smiley
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March 22, 2014, 12:25:08 AM

i am the only one that keeps getting "502 Bad Gateway"
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