Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xulescu]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

[mooncake]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

[windjc]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

You should look at his post history. He already answered this question. His ROI is 40,000%

Yes, that is not a typo.

[windjc]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

[p0peji]

Well that pump was a nice try 

[TERA]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

My strategy was to daytrade like a monkey on crack. Mean reversion strategy mostly. I often held 0 bitcoins. My ROI now in fiat terms is 40,000%. My first btc purchase was at $100.

[mooncake]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

[windjc]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

My strategy was to daytrade like a monkey on crack. Mean reversion strategy mostly. I often held 0 bitcoins. My ROI now in fiat terms is 40,000%. My first btc purchase was at $100.

And I just hope we have at least one more bubble phase so I can do what TERA did last time, instead of stare and point at my computer in awe at the huge green and red candles. Herp Derp.

[billyjoeallen]

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

[sonofliberty]

I thought we had learned by now already to only listen to what Chinese authorities are saying and to completely ignore what the exchange owners are saying. They are bastards and everything they say is engineered for their own personal profit only.

Actually the chinese authorities are the bastards.

[windjc]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

Aha. No you don't. You wanna watch me burn.  

[windjc]

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

I wouldn't over analyze this if I were you. Let's just use our common sense. Our common sense says that if fiat can't get into exchanges, exchanges can't profit and they can't exist in China.

If HVT and leverage trading goes away, incentives for trading bitcoin go away.

I do not know how this PR changes anything. In fact, the exchanges (or at least OKCoin) said they were going to mum. But here they are putting out a release.

[y3804]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

Please explain! What should we expect? Clearly stated in Caixin 2013 that PBOC doesn't want exchanges to touch their banking system. They only want people to trade Bitcoin using cash. There is no way to prevent money laundering, and PBOC knows that. The exchanges can attempt their best, but with fees  + lack of leverage trading + no fiat bank transfers, how will they become profitable again?

[xulescu]

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

My strategy was to daytrade like a monkey on crack. Mean reversion strategy mostly. I often held 0 bitcoins. My ROI now in fiat terms is 40,000%. My first btc purchase was at $100.

Impressive. You must be 10 years older than in March. And 20 wiser at least.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

 

[p0peji]

So now is the time for the market to go back to boring mode?

[p0peji]

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

 

Shorting those 1200btc is a pretty sure thing though.

[windjc]

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

 

Yeah, look. There is certainly risk involved. There is a chance the market might reverse for some crazy reason.

But its not like I am blindly making this trade. The market tells me that we have a 90%+ chance to go down.

The market is immature. Otherwise, it wouldn't be going up 150 CYN on a PR that suggests bad news.

The thing is these resistance points are putting up a little bit of a fight, because, if they cave in, then there is not much to catch us below.

I posted yesterday that 2660 was pivotal. As the "trend is your friend" I like my position. However, this PR brought us right back to 2660, where we sit at this moment.

My gut feeling is that this press release is an attempt to cover more bank closures coming this week.

And then, my final "ace in the hole" is that without fresh fiat none of this matters - we go down regardless.

[Davyd05]

Dec 5th statement agrees wind..I just dunno how the PBOC sucks at enforcing it so badly.

I mean for the Chinese they have digested the good and the bad.. but I would agree they expect more bad...we'll see how Mother's Day ends up

[billyjoeallen]

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

I wouldn't over analyze this if I were you. Let's just use our common sense. Our common sense says that if fiat can't get into exchanges, exchanges can't profit and they can't exist in China.

If HVT and leverage trading goes away, incentives for trading bitcoin go away.

I do not know how this PR changes anything. In fact, the exchanges (or at least OKCoin) said they were going to mum. But here they are putting out a release.

Common sense tells me the Chinese exchanges should be going out of business, which is why I can't understand why so many are acting as if they aren't. Gox operated for months or possibly even years while insolvent. How long can the Chinese exchanges operate? The only way to really know what is going on is to wait until they start going offline. Notices written in Chinese give someone else an edge, not me. I can only read between the lines in English.