Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitChick]

The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days.  Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm

I was wondering, do we always have a "calm before the storm?"  I seem to remember right before the last run we had a big sell off because of the Silk Road closure but it was not really calm.  Feedback from the veterans would be appreciated on this.

[mah87]

Ripple +15% after fidor bank announcment. Too bad for close minded people.

[gentlemand]

In the last few months many, many calms before storms have been called. The end result so far has either been sideways boredom or a bit of a fall.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days.  Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm

I was wondering, do we always have a "calm before the storm?"  I seem to remember right before the last run we had a big sell off because of the Silk Road closure but it was not really calm.  Feedback from the veterans would be appreciated on this.

You're more of veteran than me. I would just add that patience is all a hodler needs.

[BitChick]

In the last few months many, many calms before storms have been called. The end result so far has either been sideways boredom or a bit of a fall.

Maybe the last few months have all been the "calm before the storm."

It will be a giant storm then!  The bigger the better with Bitcoin!   

[BitChick]

The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days.  Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm

I was wondering, do we always have a "calm before the storm?"  I seem to remember right before the last run we had a big sell off because of the Silk Road closure but it was not really calm.  Feedback from the veterans would be appreciated on this.

You're more of veteran than me. I would just add that patience is all a hodler needs.

One year in Bitcoin and I am now a veteran?  That was fast.

It seems that the price likes to stabilize a bit.  We were all whining and complaining and posting "Tired of $140" last Summer.  It really seemed to like that price for a long time.  Then there was the Silk Road closure, a flash crash to $90 or so then the price began to move steadily upwards to $200 then it went ballistic.  Perhaps the drop to $350 was the final capitulation and now we were back to the calm.  I don't really know but the charts are looking good.

[DaRude]

How is Huobi higher than Stamp!?? 

Interesting hopefully it's the start of flow of bitcoins out of CNY

[UnDerDoG81]

CCMF $1000 soon 

[Davyd05]

The market has continued to be pretty flat over the past days.  Really starting to feel like the calm before the storm

I was wondering, do we always have a "calm before the storm?"  I seem to remember right before the last run we had a big sell off because of the Silk Road closure but it was not really calm.  Feedback from the veterans would be appreciated on this.

You're more of veteran than me. I would just add that patience is all a hodler needs.

One year in Bitcoin and I am now a veteran?  That was fast.

It seems that the price likes to stabilize a bit.  We were all whining and complaining and posting "Tired of $140" last Summer.  It really seemed to like that price for a long time.  Then there was the Silk Road closure, a flash crash to $90 or so then the price began to move steadily upwards to $200 then it went ballistic.  Perhaps the drop to $350 was the final capitulation and now we were back to the calm.  I don't really know but the charts are looking good.

I can't wait till I can say I've held my coins for a year...clearly you and BCHusband got some patient bones

The bottom we hit..could be the yearly low..as I look over Fib's 270-300 imo are rock bottom and hitting it would probably send buy signals that will turn a bounce in to an ath style rally

[TERA]

getting really tired of China antics. every time there is any kind of news they automatically start their pumping routine and pump it the same with the same market makers, the same walls, the same manipulation, etc. Only to suddenly fall out of the sky at some point with some massive red candle that goes below everything on the chart without any bounces.  It doesn't matter what the news is, just how many people they can rope in with psychology of watching the price action. this is probably why they're getting closed. looks they're going to attempt one more pump to 2800 or so before violently falling below 2500.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

finite time discontinuity coming up?

[billyjoeallen]

Thanks. So another way of putting this might be:
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."

That would be an accurate interpretation.  I tend to use maximum entropy defaults and focus on statements about swaps/spreads, so I put it another way.

A massive depression is overdue, but there is really no way of knowing both when and how it is going to play out because Central Bank and Government interference is going to postpone it as long as possible (which will ensure it is as severe as possible).

[Kupsi]

Do you think this chart is important to the price? I do  

Look at the bottoms in Jul '12, Sep '12, Jan '13, Jul '13 and May '14.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

[JorgeStolfi]

You can see the sponsors [of the Beijing Bitcoin Summit ] there on the lower right side
http://www.globalbtcsummit.com/en/

Yes, but I wonder about that BitFund.pe.

The Summit seems to be a marketing event to legitimize that specific (offshore?) investment fund.

The Chinese exchanges apparently pulled out of it.  Their recent joint statement seems to promise that they will refrain from questionable marketing, among other things. Could they be referring to that Summit?

[p0peji]

Now its only 1900 btc to 2570 on Huobi (yes I am not counting the 500btc fake wall) 

[pepo]

Do not fear going forward slowly; fear only to stand still.

[Hen0xyd]

1) Once sellers are done? You do realize that at this moment bitcoin is still inflationary right?
2) Increased adoption? China has just stated that it does not want anything to do with bitcoin, as well as Russia, so global must mean the rest of the world, excluding the two largest countries on earth?

1) Supply in reserve is not supply to the market.
2) Whether the PBoC wants bitcoin or not, the Chinese people want bitcoin.  I frankly wasn't counting on the PBoC being a buyer for another 5 years or so.

I general I agree that the last bubble was largely China-driven.  This is normal.  There is always something that drives the bubble, and something that drives the decompression that follows.  Every time a bubble occurs, it is indicative of more fiat finding its way into BTC.  The 2011 superbubble -- correct me if I err -- was driven by the opening of Mt.Gox, a stable exchange (at the time).  That removed the barriers for a large tranche of fiat to flow into BTC.  It seems obvious that the next bubble will occur when a new mechanism, lowering the fear, cost and inconvenience barriers, allows a larger influx of fiat precisely at a time when the BTC bonanza meme gets resurrected.  The heartbeat schedule would put that event in the summer.  If it skips a beat, then it would more likely coincide with the opening of ETPs in New York and London.  In that case, it is likely to be another superbubble, because it would facilitate a much much larger money flow than previous channels have allowed.

Meanwhile, we will continue to grind down until all the coins have flowed from weak hands to strong hands.  I keep buying small amounts because I think it is premature to lever, but we are close enough to the bottom so that I see more risk of being caught unawares by a sudden CCMF than I do risk of missing a deep-cutting plunge which increases my buying power substantially.  I don't want to watch the paint dry in hopes of a sudden opportunity -- did that, found it unfruitful in low volatility conditions.  I'd rather just average in near the bottom and leave a modest order in the 350 neighborhood in case I'm lucky.

I second that. You phrased it better that I would have do as I'm pretty bored waiting for the probable end of China's situation on May 10th.

[adamstgBit]

Do not fear going forward slowly; fear only to stand still.

there is nothing to fear but fear itself.