Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Asrael999]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

Its not a simple proposition to transfer money from mainland China to Hong Kong - the $50,000 personal limit still applies, and there are also rules for corporates. Also one imagines that Bitfinex's KYC process might be rather more rigorous than those employed by Chinese domestic exchanges which might put some of the domestic Chinese off from using them.

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[rpietila]

$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.

Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.

Meanwhile, people just hodl.

0.17% of bitcoins were traded (Bitstamp only) since 420 to effect a 6.8% price rise. The price inelasticity of supply is 39:1.

We have been enjoying the "sticky price" era for some weeks. Once the supply is no longer there, the tiniest demand kicks us out of the channel, very likely resulting in a snowball effect, so many times before seen with Bitcoin.

[dreamspark]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

Its not a simple proposition to transfer money from mainland China to Hong Kong - the $50,000 personal limit still applies, and there are also rules for corporates. Also one imagines that Bitfinex's KYC process might be rather more rigorous than those employed by Chinese domestic exchanges which might put some of the domestic Chinese off from using them.

I agree to a point, I dont think it would be too hard for the sort of market maker that TERA is referring to to circumvent that in some way. The issue of fee's is a valid one.

[Kramerc]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

And you know this… how exactly? It makes no sense whatsoever. The ones that are professional traders and are not interested in owning bitcoin have left the ecosystem at much higher prices. Why would they risk losing coins, having fiat stuck, or even being outlawed in a market where volatility is contracting? Traders left on the exchanges are uberbulls trying to increase their btc holdings up to the last moment possible.

[windjc]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

And you know this… how exactly? It makes no sense whatsoever. The ones that are professional traders and are not interested in owning bitcoin have left the ecosystem at much higher prices. Why would they risk losing coins, having fiat stuck, or even being outlawed in a market where volatility is contracting? Traders left on the exchanges are uberbulls trying to increase their btc holdings up to the last moment possible.

Well, now it looks like we are all speculating.

Call me crazy, but logic suggests that if shorts close out and HFT stops, money isn't flowing in or out of Chinese exchanges, but miners still have a place to sell - without FRESH FIAT, we will still go lower. Even if we get a temporary rise.

[macsga]

$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.

Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.

Meanwhile, people just hodl.

0.17% of bitcoins were traded (Bitstamp only) since 420 to effect a 6.8% price rise. The price inelasticity of supply is 39:1.

We have been enjoying the "sticky price" era for some weeks. Once the supply is no longer there, the tiniest demand kicks us out of the channel, very likely resulting in a snowball effect, so many times before seen with Bitcoin.

+1
This. And...

CCMF!!!!!1

[Todorius]

$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.

Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.

Meanwhile, people just hodl.

0.17% of bitcoins were traded (Bitstamp only) since 420 to effect a 6.8% price rise. The price inelasticity of supply is 39:1.

We have been enjoying the "sticky price" era for some weeks. Once the supply is no longer there, the tiniest demand kicks us out of the channel, very likely resulting in a snowball effect, so many times before seen with Bitcoin.

Again a sharp analysis of Risto. People again underestimate the upward potential of good ol' bitcoin 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

[TERA]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

The point is that they're trying to kick-start the train and that's not how you start a train.

[boumalo]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

The point is that they're trying to kick-start the train and that's not how you start a train.

Most bulls are very emotionally involved with Bitcoin

[SFHere]

Anyone else having trouble accessing huobi? Tried pinging it and no response. Maybe it's just me?

[Asrael999]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

and daily exchange volume Stamp, Finex and BTCE is still over 25,000 a day.  Supply is still being absorbed.
And the numbers above ignore any off-exchange trades, such as between secondmarket and the large mining pools.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

and daily exchange volume Stamp, Finex and BTCE is still over 25,000 a day.  Supply is still being absorbed.
And the numbers above ignore any off-exchange trades, such as between secondmarket and the large mining pools.

25,000 is the volume but there is a lot of pure trading and it can be manipulated

Hopefully all the BTC mined are not sold

[akujin]

abandon ship!! 

[TERA]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well

There are 3800 new BTC / day though

and daily exchange volume Stamp, Finex and BTCE is still over 25,000 a day.  Supply is still being absorbed.
And the numbers above ignore any off-exchange trades, such as between secondmarket and the large mining pools.

25,000 is the volume but there is a lot of pure trading and it can be manipulated

Hopefully all the BTC mined are not sold

Also most of the volume is shared between stamp and finex - they interact.

[freebit13]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

yes, huobi is above 2800 yens

yens is japanese currency and reminds everyone about mtgox. chinese currency is called yuans.

[wikipedantic] Actually the Mandarin Chinese word "yuán" and the Japanese word "yen", as well as the Korean "won", are cognates, the latter two being of Chinese origin, and all three basically meaning "round" or "round object" in the respective languages.  The yuan and the yen have the same "westernized" symbol "¥" but different symbols in their languages, "元" and "円" respectively. [/wikipedantic]