Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Todorius]

That willy report is ridiculous. I agree that the November runup could be attributed to some extent to the Willy bot and these fake buy orders, but the Feb-April runup in 2013?
He basically delivers no real evidence for that. The author of this report basically wishes that BTC will just stop bubbling.
Unfortunately, he will be disappointed to see that bubbles are most often caused by mass psychology, e.g sheep panic buying. We haven't seen that last bubbles!

Oh, and what a convenient timing to release that report, after BTC gained like 30% value in a matter of a few days. Nice.

[1714174876]

1714174876

[1714174876]

1714174876

[1714174876]

1714174876

[ElectricMucus]

Right, until somebody gets arrested...

Thousands of people get arrested everyday. That has no effect on the bitcoin price.

You know who that somebody is, right?

You?

No, hint he's fat, French or something and is Big In Japan.

[mmitech]

at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed

18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.

+1

I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain.  I am actually shocked.

I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other  new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.

So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.

The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.

It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.

Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).  

IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.

well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?

the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fear start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.

People should be watching NXT. If it were on all the exchanges DRK was on, it would be much higher. It is truly innovative and even if its before its time, it will be ready when its time has come.

NXT is also in discussions with Overstock.com regarding a bond issuance and it will soon become its own decentralized alt-coin exchange, where people can trade essentially for free.

So, because people don't do research, they think that DRK has special features, when, in fact, coins like MRO are much more superior as autonomous coins, while coins and systems like NXT are also capable of having this autonomy built into their system.

DRK is going to crash soon.

Yeah I bought NXT a while back, but it's not moved much in months, although I agree people seem to think it's capabilities are groundbreaking. As for DRK - it's one I am wary of but I have got some and it is way over where I got in.   I am in XC (X11) to see what happens too - but I agree about MRO, and it is by far my biggest bet.

I agree not all will succeed, it's brutal out there but some of these will be part of the new value exchange ecosystem that BTC is front-running.

I think there are different roles for coins to perform and - sure - time will tell, but many coins have far more to offer than LTC which I personally think will continue to suffer from only having 'speed' as a reason for buying it.  It will not go away in a hurry, but recently I have re-evaluated why I have always held so many and I don't regret it.

I never gamble or bet, but I am sure about investing in LTC that I will take a 1000 LTC or the equivalent in BTC bet on LTC reaching $100 till the end of this year, will you bet against me ?

[El Cabron]

why would anyone see the willy report as a neg? people pay what it is worth.

[windjc]

Right, until somebody gets arrested...

Thousands of people get arrested everyday. That has no effect on the bitcoin price.

You know who that somebody is, right?

You?

No, hint he's fat, French or something and is Big In Japan.

Who cares if Karpalapogus gets arrested?  Its not going to effect the price of bitcoin. Although there might be more champagne purchased with bitcoin that day in celebration.

[SheHadMANHands]

If the "Willy report" is going to crash Bitcoin, then we can expect a massive gold rally based on the Barclay's manipulation news.

IMO, not going to happen although gold may grind higher as Russia and China continue their buying.

There is no news. Willy has been around forever and we all knew it manipulated trading at GOX, especially in the last month.

This is simply people hoping that this will drive the price down.

Ya, I don't get it.  Why would there be some great crash now?  The market got out of the ~5-6 month downtrend of it's own volition, and this Willy thing has been known for months.  

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/ <- 2 months old

Now, if China bans Bitcoin again..

[ElectricMucus]

why would anyone see the willy report as a neg? people pay what it is worth.

Well subconsciously yes.

[windjc]

at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed

18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.

+1

I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain.  I am actually shocked.

I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other  new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.

So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.

The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.

It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.

Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).  

IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.

well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?

the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fear start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.

People should be watching NXT. If it were on all the exchanges DRK was on, it would be much higher. It is truly innovative and even if its before its time, it will be ready when its time has come.

NXT is also in discussions with Overstock.com regarding a bond issuance and it will soon become its own decentralized alt-coin exchange, where people can trade essentially for free.

So, because people don't do research, they think that DRK has special features, when, in fact, coins like MRO are much more superior as autonomous coins, while coins and systems like NXT are also capable of having this autonomy built into their system.

DRK is going to crash soon.

Yeah I bought NXT a while back, but it's not moved much in months, although I agree people seem to think it's capabilities are groundbreaking. As for DRK - it's one I am wary of but I have got some and it is way over where I got in.   I am in XC (X11) to see what happens too - but I agree about MRO, and it is by far my biggest bet.

I agree not all will succeed, it's brutal out there but some of these will be part of the new value exchange ecosystem that BTC is front-running.

I think there are different roles for coins to perform and - sure - time will tell, but many coins have far more to offer than LTC which I personally think will continue to suffer from only having 'speed' as a reason for buying it.  It will not go away in a hurry, but recently I have re-evaluated why I have always held so many and I don't regret it.

I never gamble or bet, but I am sure about investing in LTC that I will take a 1000 LTC or the equivalent in BTC bet on LTC reaching $100 till the end of this year, will you bet against me ?

Hold on. Are you saying that you will take a 1000 LTC equivalent bet that LTC will reach $100 in 2014? Are you serious. If so, I will most likely take this bet.

[derpinheimer]

So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.

If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.

That willy report is ridiculous. I agree that the November runup could be attributed to some extent to the Willy bot and these fake buy orders, but the Feb-April runup in 2013?
He basically delivers no real evidence for that. The author of this report basically wishes that BTC will just stop bubbling.
Unfortunately, he will be disappointed to see that bubbles are most often caused by mass psychology, e.g sheep panic buying. We haven't seen that last bubbles!

Oh, and what a convenient timing to release that report, after BTC gained like 30% value in a matter of a few days. Nice.

Also, lmao @ "some extent" more like 90%+ of the rise was fake bot money.

[El Cabron]

why would anyone see the willy report as a neg? people pay what it is worth.

Well subconsciously yes.

who cares as long as they pay what it is worth.

[ElectricMucus]

why would anyone see the willy report as a neg? people pay what it is worth.

Well subconsciously yes.

who cares as long as they pay what it is worth.

they
... after the fact.

[windjc]

So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.

If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.

That willy report is ridiculous. I agree that the November runup could be attributed to some extent to the Willy bot and these fake buy orders, but the Feb-April runup in 2013?
He basically delivers no real evidence for that. The author of this report basically wishes that BTC will just stop bubbling.
Unfortunately, he will be disappointed to see that bubbles are most often caused by mass psychology, e.g sheep panic buying. We haven't seen that last bubbles!

Oh, and what a convenient timing to release that report, after BTC gained like 30% value in a matter of a few days. Nice.

Also, lmao @ "some extent" more like 90%+ of the rise was fake bot money.

Ok. You are officially an idiot.

[windjc]

why would anyone see the willy report as a neg? people pay what it is worth.

Well subconsciously yes.

who cares as long as they pay what it is worth.

they
... after the fact.

I feel like this post needs a "dum dum dum" soundtrack (no pun intended).

[mmitech]

at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed

18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.

+1

I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain.  I am actually shocked.

I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other  new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.

So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.

The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.

It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.

Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).  

IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.

well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?

the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fear start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.

People should be watching NXT. If it were on all the exchanges DRK was on, it would be much higher. It is truly innovative and even if its before its time, it will be ready when its time has come.

NXT is also in discussions with Overstock.com regarding a bond issuance and it will soon become its own decentralized alt-coin exchange, where people can trade essentially for free.

So, because people don't do research, they think that DRK has special features, when, in fact, coins like MRO are much more superior as autonomous coins, while coins and systems like NXT are also capable of having this autonomy built into their system.

DRK is going to crash soon.

Yeah I bought NXT a while back, but it's not moved much in months, although I agree people seem to think it's capabilities are groundbreaking. As for DRK - it's one I am wary of but I have got some and it is way over where I got in.   I am in XC (X11) to see what happens too - but I agree about MRO, and it is by far my biggest bet.

I agree not all will succeed, it's brutal out there but some of these will be part of the new value exchange ecosystem that BTC is front-running.

I think there are different roles for coins to perform and - sure - time will tell, but many coins have far more to offer than LTC which I personally think will continue to suffer from only having 'speed' as a reason for buying it.  It will not go away in a hurry, but recently I have re-evaluated why I have always held so many and I don't regret it.

I never gamble or bet, but I am sure about investing in LTC that I will take a 1000 LTC or the equivalent in BTC bet on LTC reaching $100 till the end of this year, will you bet against me ?

Hold on. Are you saying that you will take a 1000 LTC equivalent bet that LTC will reach $100 in 2014? Are you serious. If so, I will most likely take this bet.

yes this is what I am saying, 1000 LTC from your part (or the equivalent BTC) and  1000 LTC from my part, the escrow should be released at the end of the year if failed or when the price is reached.

[kurious]

Not saying that DRK cant succeed or anything, but all this talk about "a better coin in town" heavily reminds me what dogecoin cultists were saying on the peak of its bubble.

Personally i think its just the new quark. The altcoin hype comes in waves. We've already seen the country-based coin hype (chinacoin, etc), the memecoin hype (doge, catcoin, w/e), some other types like quark, and now its apparently anonymity coins turn to get their pump.

I do agree largely - but I jumped in on this point in defence of Nanobrain - because until ebven a few weeks back I had been feeling (like you) that it was just P&Ds of gimmicky stuff.

Doge is pretty much on it's arse - and all the other countless memes and gimmicks have had their day, but when you watch Poloniex, it is quite easy to see there is just no volume for all these faded names - but some new types of coin are emerging.

It is worth watching, and there certainly is (ahem) some profit to be made to make your research time worth the trouble.

A little off-topic, but I guess I am saying 'don't just write off alts because they are merely a bunch of joke-memes' and don't miss out on (as Nanonbrain said) throwing a few Satoshis into them, when it's not hard to pick up some tasty profits.

[ElectricMucus]

Right, until somebody gets arrested...

Thousands of people get arrested everyday. That has no effect on the bitcoin price.

You know who that somebody is, right?

You?

No, hint he's fat, French or something and is Big In Japan.

Who cares if Karpalapogus gets arrested?  Its not going to effect the price of bitcoin. Although there might be more champagne purchased with bitcoin that day in celebration.

That depends on the circumstances. It's not like this can't being happening on other exchanges, is it?

[derpinheimer]

So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage. Let's reevaluate at the end of the season.

If human psychology and herd instinct is such an important factor in market behaviour, it's quite possible that this pattern is now hard baked into the BTC cycle.

That willy report is ridiculous. I agree that the November runup could be attributed to some extent to the Willy bot and these fake buy orders, but the Feb-April runup in 2013?
He basically delivers no real evidence for that. The author of this report basically wishes that BTC will just stop bubbling.
Unfortunately, he will be disappointed to see that bubbles are most often caused by mass psychology, e.g sheep panic buying. We haven't seen that last bubbles!

Oh, and what a convenient timing to release that report, after BTC gained like 30% value in a matter of a few days. Nice.

Also, lmao @ "some extent" more like 90%+ of the rise was fake bot money.

Ok. You are officially an idiot.

Looks like you fear the truth  

[edwardspitz]

I dunno what to think. The current formation looks like a top with a bear flag (and we are currently in the flag) But it also feels bullish    Do you think we might fall out of the bear flag for a leg down and then maybe continue the up trend?

It also feels mostly bullish to me. I think we will either go up tomorrow from $570 or retrace to $550. Support for $570 does not seem overwhelming. On the bullish side I have seen many traders buying coins from those intimidating bot walls... The bots I have observed have also been "competing" with each other and traders to buy dumped coins. I don't know how clever the bots (or their operators are) are, but they definitely want to scoop up as many coins as possible for the lowest price possible. And that price has not been much lower than the current price Today has been a bit "messy" in my opinion. Like someone panicking because they realized that that the train has left the station. So I would say that there is risk of a leg down, but I also feel that the up trend will continue.

[windjc]

at the moment LTC is the only alt that I would consider trading and investing in... it is also the safest one and the biggest and oldest and most developed

18 months back I would have agreed with you but times are changing, innovations and developments occurring - it pays to keep an open mind and a few satoshis available for new things.

+1

I wholeheartedly agree, however, I am afraid no one is listening to you, Nanobrain.  I am actually shocked.

I have now sold half my LTC (which I never imagined even a couple of months back I would do) to get into DRK / MRO and XC and these and other  new coins are looking really interesting as well as being wonderfully volatile.

So many coins, yes - but not watching alts for developments is extremely short-sighted.

The volumes for the top handfull of new coins is quite hefty, and as long as you buy according to innovative features, they're starting to make LTC look dated now.

It will not move up with BTC like is used to as most people do not want to spend BTC on alts, but old LTC stocks (and PPC /NMC / XPM... et al) seem unnecessary now.

Coins actually die and disappear every day - and only really innovative ones rise (and rise quickly).  

IMHO Anyone not watching is taking a big risk, as well as losing some interesting opportunities.

well IMHO all the coins you pointed above are in a temporary hype, as usually they get pumped then people jumps in wishing to make some profits, and you go around the forum to hear them talking about how great the coin is and it offers this and that and whatnot but the real deal is that most coins are horse shit... seriously there I dont see the purpose of most of the coins, and dont tell me about anonimity and privacy... coinjoin offers the same shit, it was gmaxwell project (idea) and it can be implemented on any coin ( Bitcoin, litecoin, shitcoin....), even if we assume that an anonymous coin would technically survive how and who do you think will adopt that coin ?

the only 2 most innovative coins I came across that really deserved some attention were Ethereum and NXT, sadly the pre-mine (IPO) philosophy killed a fear start, also the market is not really prepared for these features yet... we've got a long path to bring the basic features to masses, only then we can think about going to the next level.

People should be watching NXT. If it were on all the exchanges DRK was on, it would be much higher. It is truly innovative and even if its before its time, it will be ready when its time has come.

NXT is also in discussions with Overstock.com regarding a bond issuance and it will soon become its own decentralized alt-coin exchange, where people can trade essentially for free.

So, because people don't do research, they think that DRK has special features, when, in fact, coins like MRO are much more superior as autonomous coins, while coins and systems like NXT are also capable of having this autonomy built into their system.

DRK is going to crash soon.

Yeah I bought NXT a while back, but it's not moved much in months, although I agree people seem to think it's capabilities are groundbreaking. As for DRK - it's one I am wary of but I have got some and it is way over where I got in.   I am in XC (X11) to see what happens too - but I agree about MRO, and it is by far my biggest bet.

I agree not all will succeed, it's brutal out there but some of these will be part of the new value exchange ecosystem that BTC is front-running.

I think there are different roles for coins to perform and - sure - time will tell, but many coins have far more to offer than LTC which I personally think will continue to suffer from only having 'speed' as a reason for buying it.  It will not go away in a hurry, but recently I have re-evaluated why I have always held so many and I don't regret it.

I never gamble or bet, but I am sure about investing in LTC that I will take a 1000 LTC or the equivalent in BTC bet on LTC reaching $100 till the end of this year, will you bet against me ?

Hold on. Are you saying that you will take a 1000 LTC equivalent bet that LTC will reach $100 in 2014? Are you serious. If so, I will most likely take this bet.

yes this is what I am saying, 1000 LTC from your part (or the equivalent BTC) and  1000 LTC from my part, the escrow should be released at the end of the year if failed or when if the price is reached.

Wow. I hate betting against myself as I have a nice stash of LTC. But I just don't think LTC will be $100 this year. But if it is, I will have made so much money from the next bubble that I can afford to lose this bet.

So, I accept this bet.  To be fair, lets do the bet in BTC. So that would be about 20 btc?

Ok, I changed my mind. My apologies. Its not worth 20 BTC for me to have 20 BTC tied up for 7 months.  I wish there was a way to do a shorter bet >1 month, but in this case there is not.

I love bets, as readers of this thread know. But I don't love having my liquidity tied up. Sry.

[JorgeStolfi]

So today is the official end of bubble day. And this is being declared on the basis of one posting on the internet. Quel dommage.

Actually, as I posted above, I believe that the bubbles of 2013 were real, due to the increased demand from the opening of the Chinese market.  I see the Markus/Willy activity as being merely the arbitrage that copied that real bubble to MtGOX, using 100+ million virtual goxDollars.

On the other hand, my conclusion is not very different from your mocklusion above.  As I posted before, for a new bubble there must be another increase in demand comparable to that of the Chinese market in Nov 2013.  It could be new community of users, or a new application that convinces some existing community to buy a lot more bitcoins.  I don't see either yet.