Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Odalv]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

$3k ?

Please tell me you meant ¥3k (meh... I'll spot you ¥4k or ¥5k... but let's not get carried away, here).

I have changed my mind ... sooo I'll sell @$5k+ :-), (and will buy more, if price go down)

[Sandia]

C'mon... all Street would be dumb to share the profits with you all at this point. What is going to happen is this... they will keep dumping and manipulating until the leveraged longs get wiped out. There will be a cascade. Many long-time players will fold. They'll buy a ton up cheap. Then they'll work the price up to about $1000... people will pop in out of the wood work, again... then Wall Street will steal their lunch money again. Rinse and repeat. This is merely a more volatile microcosm of the larger system now.

A fair price minus all of the bull---- is probably about $575 to $650, but games will be played. Get ready to catch some coins at $200 and don't let these rich bastards take all of your lunch money.

In general, I think you are right, however:
Everytime I talk to people about btc, their biggest smug smiles comes when they say, "Oh, and it is only half the price it was last year, right?  All those people lost money, right?  Right?"  Well, yeah, they are down 50%.  Yeah, they lost money. Yeah, the price is still dropping.

If Wall Street comes in and crashes the price, it will do serious damage to the future of btc.  They will have to moderate their short term greed in order to make more money later.  I am not sure they know how to moderate their greed, but I hope they learn.

[Taras]

I think we're going to see sub-500. But it's not like that's a bad thing... In fact, we'd get a lot of cheap coins if anything

As for ath? Maybe not this year, or next year. We're probably in the adoption chasm right now, so what we need is for who we have now to start making it easier for the masses to use bitcoin. As this'll take a while, both with the development of any such projects and the adoption as a result, we won't have a "rally" for quite some time.

But that's okay. We have a lot to work with. What we should care about is the services making bitcoin easy to use. Things like Circle or Trezor.

[Newbie1022]

C'mon... all Street would be dumb to share the profits with you all at this point. What is going to happen is this... they will keep dumping and manipulating until the leveraged longs get wiped out. There will be a cascade. Many long-time players will fold. They'll buy a ton up cheap. Then they'll work the price up to about $1000... people will pop in out of the wood work, again... then Wall Street will steal their lunch money again. Rinse and repeat. This is merely a more volatile microcosm of the larger system now.

A fair price minus all of the bull---- is probably about $575 to $650, but games will be played. Get ready to catch some coins at $200 and don't let these rich bastards take all of your lunch money.

In general, I think you are right, however:
Everytime I talk to people about btc, their biggest smug smiles comes when they say, "Oh, and it is only half the price it was last year, right?  All those people lost money, right?  Right?"  Well, yeah, they are down 50%.  Yeah, they lost money. Yeah, the price is still dropping.

If Wall Street comes in and crashes the price, it will do serious damage to the future of btc.  They will have to moderate their short term greed in order to make more money later.  I am not sure they know how to moderate their greed, but I hope they learn.

This is a wonderful point. If they were wise they'd let it flourish so that they could reap greater profits later. This is especially so because if people start to think the game is rigged and that they are playing against the house then there are fewer counterparties for Wall Street to play against.

That said, I think that they see this as their time to make profits -- they see the expansion of too many Altcoins diluting the field, the potential for dumps, the carelessness of attracting retailers without working out how they would exit those positions (they should have set as a standard the issuing of BTC to employees... get more mainstream adoption and fewer price dumps), and the flood of new regulations (Lawsky is the tip of the iceberg and CFPB is a bad omen).

I still think we are oversold if this is a straight market, but what I actually expect to happen is for Wall Street to rip out what they can now while they still know they can rip something out of it. Maybe I am too much the pessimist.

[Newbie1022]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

$3k ?

Please tell me you meant ¥3k (meh... I'll spot you ¥4k or ¥5k... but let's not get carried away, here).

I have changed my mind ... sooo I'll sell @$5k+ :-), (and will buy more, if price go down)

Crack kills.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

Commencing Chinese Mega Dump in T minus 1 hour.

[Sandia]

Ascending triangle on the 30 minute charts.  Bullish if we can break thru 550 (or 555, depending on how you draw the lines).

[JayJuanGee]

Dude, somebody in one of the other posts said that there was a 25% chance that BTC would be valued at over $4000 by the end of the year (only a few months away). Drugs. Don't do drugs, kids. Jesus.

And you would have gotten the same response if you made the same claim about $1000 on this date last year.

Different market, man. $4000 might be possible one day... not by the end of the year in a post-Gox environment where we are still working out the regulatory terrain. This is where technical analysis is dangerous and gets a bad name... math would tell you that $4,000 by the end of the year is possible, but if you look up from the calculator and think about the real world you know that it isn't going to happen (and certainly not a 25% in the next few months). Fundamentals and technical analysis should be used together to avoid this... the fundamentals are actually pretty positive despite the need to work out retailer dumps (give the coins to your employees people), but not nearly $4000+ positive.

It's just not going to happen. It's not even close to possible. It isn't like even a lottery chance where it is a super long-shot maybe. It's just not happening. Not in the next few months. Period.

You are NOT quite being clear in your above statement.   Surely, I appreciate and understand why you believe that 25% chance for $4,000 before the end of the year is too optimistic; however, are you giving $4,000 by the end of the year a 0% chance or something like a .001% chance or some other number?

I find it a little discrediting when posters begin to dig themselves into such a state of emphatic and become absolutist(s) in their language.

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

[JayJuanGee]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

Well friend, now that is entirely a different discussion. Hehehehe.

An optimistic number for the end of the year would be $1500 to $2000... that I'd put as long shot right now, but certainly possible. And while it is not the exponential profits some are dreaming of... that's a hell of a profit on the year... you couldn't do that in any other market.

The cultish sounding numbers, though, really do worry me... I don't like to see people talking crazy.

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

Well friend, now that is entirely a different discussion. Hehehehe.

An optimistic number for the end of the year would be $1500 to $2000... that I'd put as long shot right now, but certainly possible. And while it is not the exponential profits some are dreaming of... that's a hell of a profit on the year... you couldn't do that in any other market.

The cultish sounding numbers, though, really do worry me... I don't like to see people talking crazy.

Seriously though, I hope that we see $4000 by the end of the year... I just feel like when people's expectations get too out of whack... that's when they make decisions that can ruin their lives. Also, it is like painting a huge target on your back. If I was a Wall Street trader my eyes would light up when I read people saying that their "conservative" estimate is $4000 by the end of the year. I mean, if you are a scumbag banker, those types of words are better than the best Christmas gift ever.

[podyx]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

[lemonte]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

I wouldn't be afraid, looks like the Chinese have woken up in the mood for dumping. I am going to sleep with bids set up at $480, $460, $440

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

If you are in this far either: (a) don't sell; or (b) sell a small portion -- 10 to 20% -- and put in some low ball bids (basically, play a hedge position).

That would be my advice. I think we have further to fall, but absent a cascade (and hence the low ball bids) it really can't get that much worse.

[podyx]

Gonna sell about 40% of my stash if I do and if the price goes down where I would want it to go, I would make a solid 3-4 much needed extra bitcoins but damn, i'm afraid of some unexpected rally

edit: I might just wait to the morning to see if I should sell or not

[Newbie1022]

Gonna sell about 40% of my stash if I do and if the price goes down where I would want it to go, I would make a solid 3-4 much needed extra bitcoins but damn, i'm afraid of some unexpected rally

edit: I might just wait to the morning to see if I should sell or not

Don't wait until morning... it is getting ugly quick. If you are going to do it then do it. If not then don't. Make a decision one way or another.

[Dotto]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

You seem too well educated to be a newbie, until the point that you seem the alter ego of a whale playing the newbie roll.

However, is most plausible the 25% odd of reaching 4000$ before 31 dec than the .000000000000000000000001%, and we can bet on that numbers if you want to put your money where your mouth is.