Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

$3k ?

Please tell me you meant ¥3k (meh... I'll spot you ¥4k or ¥5k... but let's not get carried away, here).

I have changed my mind ... sooo I'll sell @$5k+ :-), (and will buy more, if price go down)

Crack kills.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

Commencing Chinese Mega Dump in T minus 1 hour.

[Sandia]

Ascending triangle on the 30 minute charts.  Bullish if we can break thru 550 (or 555, depending on how you draw the lines).

[JayJuanGee]

Dude, somebody in one of the other posts said that there was a 25% chance that BTC would be valued at over $4000 by the end of the year (only a few months away). Drugs. Don't do drugs, kids. Jesus.

And you would have gotten the same response if you made the same claim about $1000 on this date last year.

Different market, man. $4000 might be possible one day... not by the end of the year in a post-Gox environment where we are still working out the regulatory terrain. This is where technical analysis is dangerous and gets a bad name... math would tell you that $4,000 by the end of the year is possible, but if you look up from the calculator and think about the real world you know that it isn't going to happen (and certainly not a 25% in the next few months). Fundamentals and technical analysis should be used together to avoid this... the fundamentals are actually pretty positive despite the need to work out retailer dumps (give the coins to your employees people), but not nearly $4000+ positive.

It's just not going to happen. It's not even close to possible. It isn't like even a lottery chance where it is a super long-shot maybe. It's just not happening. Not in the next few months. Period.

You are NOT quite being clear in your above statement.   Surely, I appreciate and understand why you believe that 25% chance for $4,000 before the end of the year is too optimistic; however, are you giving $4,000 by the end of the year a 0% chance or something like a .001% chance or some other number?

I find it a little discrediting when posters begin to dig themselves into such a state of emphatic and become absolutist(s) in their language.

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

[JayJuanGee]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

Well friend, now that is entirely a different discussion. Hehehehe.

An optimistic number for the end of the year would be $1500 to $2000... that I'd put as long shot right now, but certainly possible. And while it is not the exponential profits some are dreaming of... that's a hell of a profit on the year... you couldn't do that in any other market.

The cultish sounding numbers, though, really do worry me... I don't like to see people talking crazy.

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

o.k.   How about $3,900?       

Well friend, now that is entirely a different discussion. Hehehehe.

An optimistic number for the end of the year would be $1500 to $2000... that I'd put as long shot right now, but certainly possible. And while it is not the exponential profits some are dreaming of... that's a hell of a profit on the year... you couldn't do that in any other market.

The cultish sounding numbers, though, really do worry me... I don't like to see people talking crazy.

Seriously though, I hope that we see $4000 by the end of the year... I just feel like when people's expectations get too out of whack... that's when they make decisions that can ruin their lives. Also, it is like painting a huge target on your back. If I was a Wall Street trader my eyes would light up when I read people saying that their "conservative" estimate is $4000 by the end of the year. I mean, if you are a scumbag banker, those types of words are better than the best Christmas gift ever.

[podyx]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

[lemonte]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

I wouldn't be afraid, looks like the Chinese have woken up in the mood for dumping. I am going to sleep with bids set up at $480, $460, $440

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

I am considering selling part of my stash here before I go to sleep but I'm afraid to wake up to a higher price... 

If you are in this far either: (a) don't sell; or (b) sell a small portion -- 10 to 20% -- and put in some low ball bids (basically, play a hedge position).

That would be my advice. I think we have further to fall, but absent a cascade (and hence the low ball bids) it really can't get that much worse.

[podyx]

Gonna sell about 40% of my stash if I do and if the price goes down where I would want it to go, I would make a solid 3-4 much needed extra bitcoins but damn, i'm afraid of some unexpected rally

edit: I might just wait to the morning to see if I should sell or not

[Newbie1022]

Gonna sell about 40% of my stash if I do and if the price goes down where I would want it to go, I would make a solid 3-4 much needed extra bitcoins but damn, i'm afraid of some unexpected rally

edit: I might just wait to the morning to see if I should sell or not

Don't wait until morning... it is getting ugly quick. If you are going to do it then do it. If not then don't. Make a decision one way or another.

[Dotto]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

You seem too well educated to be a newbie, until the point that you seem the alter ego of a whale playing the newbie roll.

However, is most plausible the 25% odd of reaching 4000$ before 31 dec than the .000000000000000000000001%, and we can bet on that numbers if you want to put your money where your mouth is.

[kireinaha]

Call the low for tonight! Looks like China is up and ready for their daily dump... I'll be conservative and say $520ish... but I won't be surprised if we go much lower. Still, I don't think we'll break into $400s until Friday at least.

[David M]

I'm a buyer at $535, $518 and $504.

Stop loss at $441.

[Newbie1022]

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

You seem too well educated to be a newbie, until the point that you seem the alter ego of a whale playing the newbie roll.

However, is most plausible the 25% odd of reaching 4000$ before 31 dec than the .000000000000000000000001%, and we can bet on that numbers if you want to put your money where your mouth is.

I have about $1500 to my name, too much credit card debt, and a ton of student loans... I assure you good sir, that I am not a whale. What price are you suggesting as the bet? $4000. I'd take out loans that I am not even sure that I can get... but I'd find a way... I'd rob a lady on the street if necessary... to bet that there is no way in hell that we are at $4000 by December 31st.

[Newbie1022]

I'm a buyer at $535, $518 and $504.

Stop loss at $441.

It could get uglier than this... but a very reasonable play in all actuality.