Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[FNG]

Another Billionaire investing in bitcoin companies

New York City-based SolidX has raised $3m to bring financial instruments – including ‘total return swaps’ – to large institutional bitcoin investors.

Founded in early 2014, SolidX’s funding round came from a group of investors led by Liberty City Ventures and hedge fund manager James Pallotta.


http://www.coindesk.com/solidx-raises-3-million-give-institutional-investors-better-access-bitcoin/

"James Pallotta (born March 13, 1958), is an Italian American investor and hedge fund manager and, since August 27, 2012, the president of the Italian association football club A.S. Roma.

In 2005, he had income of about 200 million dollars as Managing Director of Tudor Investment Corporation. Pallotta's net worth has been estimated to be more than a billion dollars. In addition to his investment in A. S. Roma and other investments, Pallotta is a minority vanity shareholder in the Boston Celtics.[2]"

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[pjviitas]

I laughed more than I should have. LOL

Yea i'm not bein racist but those two countries are known for havin shitty economies. I don't take financial advice from homeless people and i don't care what their central banks think.

Well i am from Serbia, but i share your sentiment.

Could be worse. You could be from Detroit.

does that make the whole US a shit failure land ? just saying...

No, but it tells you something about the people running it.

you mean the ones that got voted by a free and democratic process ?

That's debatable.

[Walsoraj]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

[empowering]

There are people who like Formula 1. And then there are people who like Nascar. And then there are people who like Monster Trucks.

I like cranes and bulldozers (but those are probably more boring than fast cars going round and round.)

The collective noun being dickheads?

Really, the male obsession over the internal combustion engine is quite pitiful.

That would be a bit like me saying the female obsession with baking cakes is quite pitiful.... which of course would be a totally ignorant thing to say.

[noobtrader]

There are people who like Formula 1. And then there are people who like Nascar. And then there are people who like Monster Trucks.

I like cranes and bulldozers (but those are probably more boring than fast cars going round and round.)

The collective noun being dickheads?

Really, the male obsession over the internal combustion engine is quite pitiful.

Hey calm down woman. I notice a lot of males this and males that in your posts. In a negative way. I'm highly offended. And i might report you for discrimination.

rule no. 16. There are NO girls on the internet.

Look up what "there are no girls on the internet" really means.


Also, I for one welcome our 2.5% share of womenfolk in here. Because, otherwise:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wl_uQOABxg

hey, its just a meme.

[mmitech]

What I meant is that people who were buying thought that yesterday was a clear sign of reversal, others thought that the 30K wall was a clear attempt of manipulation to buy "cheap" so they bought back fast, others thought it was the last sign before the Cho Cho...

What people seem to ignore or don't understand is that once we reach the bottom, no one will miss buying "cheap", because we will be trading at that level for several weeks before going up.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?


We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the  trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.  

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.


2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.


tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)





I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

 

[mmitech]

That's debatable.

sarcasm is usually not debatable

[WoopDeBoop]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

[mmitech]

I wish I had an example like this about Bitcoin:

[mmitech]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

someone that doesn't like Bitcoin could say the same: "you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying Bitcoin"

[oda.krell]

What I meant is that people who were buying thought that yesterday was a clear sign of reversal, others thought that the 30K wall was a clear attempt of manipulation to buy "cheap" so they bought back fast, others thought it was the last sign before the Cho Cho...

What people seem to ignore or don't understand is that once we reach the bottom, no one will miss buying "cheap", because we will be trading at that level for several weeks before going up.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?


We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the  trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.  

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.


2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.


tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

After a harsh corrective wave A, the bear market of April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.

It doesn't have to be flat to trade below major resistance levels, and could take 4 - 5 months, not weeks, to break the 680$.
And that's in the bullish scenario, where we already hit THE bottom. In the bearish one it's going to be scary even for bottom fishers.

That wasn't the point I made. I'll repeat it:

"Scooping up cheap coins for weeks" is neither an accurate description of the 2013 correction, not the 2011 correction.

That's all.

The reason: "cheap coins" is defined in term of the absolute low of the correction. If, after reaching an intermediate bottom, price doubles (which it did, in 2013), I promise you it won't feel like "scooping up cheap coins" at all if it repeats in the future.

Also:

>April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.



Maybe we have different definitions of volatility, but the closest to "a relatively narrow range" I can see in there is mid-May to mid-June. $260 -> $50 -> $170 most certainly isn't range trading, and going back from $130 to $65 isn't either.

[WoopDeBoop]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

someone that doesn't like Bitcoin could say the same: "you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying Bitcoin"

I don't visit ripple forums, nor do i post about it on fb, or tell anyone they should invest only my mother and girlfriend know i even own a lot of bitcoins. I talked my sister out of investing @ $600 because i wouldn't be held responsible if she lost anything.

so tell me, who do i try to convince to invest?

he only ever comes here to post stupid shit about ripple

[oda.krell]

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)





I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

  

Alright, I see your point now. What you mean is, there was plenty of time to get in "relatively cheap" before the next bubble started.

I agree with that.

But I hope you understand my point as well: From the perspective of the absolute bottom, that 90-120 USD range was already 2 to 2.5 times higher than the bottom. In that sense, not really the cheapest coins anymore. But, "cheap enough", if you want to get in before the next rally, which is what you mean I suppose.

EDIT: to make it more "graphic", let's assume $280 was in fact the bottom this time (I'm not saying it necessarily is, but that's not the point in this argument). Then we could hover in the $400, $500, $600 range for a while before the next rally, applying the same factor as in 2013.
I don't know about you, but buying in at $500, when I could have bought in at $300, seems okay to me, but not really ideal either.

[mmitech]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

someone that doesn't like Bitcoin could say the same: "you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying Bitcoin"

I don't visit ripple forums, nor do i post about it on fb, or tell anyone they should invest only my mother and girlfriend know i even own a lot of bitcoins. I talked my sister out of investing @ $600 because i wouldn't be held responsible if she lost anything.

so tell me, who do i try to convince to invest?

he only ever comes here to post stupid shit about ripple

I would like to remind you that we talk about everything in this thread this is why most of us visit it... sure it becomes unreadable sometimes and other times it get out of subject for pages but it keep us all informed about what is going on around....

and just to clarify, I am not invested into ripple.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mmitech]

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)





I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

  

Alright, I see your point now. What you mean is, there was plenty of time to get in "relatively cheap" before the next bubble started.

I agree with that.

But I hope you understand my point as well: From the perspective of the absolute bottom, that 90-120 USD range was already 2 to 2.5 times higher than the bottom. In that sense, not really the cheapest coins anymore. But, "cheap enough", if you want to get in before the next rally, which is what you mean I suppose.

EDIT: to make it more "graphic", let's assume $280 was in fact the bottom this time (I'm not saying it necessarily is, but that's not the point in this argument). Then we could hover in the $400, $500, $600 range for a while before the next rally, applying the same factor as in 2013.
I don't know about you, but buying in at $500, when I could have bought in at $300, seems okay to me, but not really ideal either.

I understood your point, and BTW only a lucky bastard can catch that "real" bottom, because usually it doesn't hold for long....

I think we are still far from bottom... it wouldn't matter that much for me if I am wrong anyway, because I am not going to invest more than $4200... I will invest it only when there is a real clear reversal and I dont mind missing a 10-30% just to be sure, because waiting for that real bottom and figuring out how many more Bitcoins you could buy for the same money is priceless.

[noobtrader]

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

someone that doesn't like Bitcoin could say the same: "you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying Bitcoin"

I don't visit ripple forums, nor do i post about it on fb, or tell anyone they should invest only my mother and girlfriend know i even own a lot of bitcoins. I talked my sister out of investing @ $600 because i wouldn't be held responsible if she lost anything.

so tell me, who do i try to convince to invest?

he only ever comes here to post stupid shit about ripple

I would like to remind you that we talk about everything in this thread this is why most of us visit it... sure it becomes unreadable sometimes and other times it get out of subject for pages but it keep us all informed about what is going on around....

and just to clarify, I am not invested into ripple.

hmmm... i really dont understand why anyone want to become part of ripple node, do they just work hard without getting paid for banking institution ? i reaaaaly dont get it.

by becoming a BTC miner at least one get coin.

[dakota neat]

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)





I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

  

Alright, I see your point now. What you mean is, there was plenty of time to get in "relatively cheap" before the next bubble started.

I agree with that.

But I hope you understand my point as well: From the perspective of the absolute bottom, that 90-120 USD range was already 2 to 2.5 times higher than the bottom. In that sense, not really the cheapest coins anymore. But, "cheap enough", if you want to get in before the next rally, which is what you mean I suppose.

EDIT: to make it more "graphic", let's assume $280 was in fact the bottom this time (I'm not saying it necessarily is, but that's not the point in this argument). Then we could hover in the $400, $500, $600 range for a while before the next rally, applying the same factor as in 2013.
I don't know about you, but buying in at $500, when I could have bought in at $300, seems okay to me, but not really ideal either.

I understood your point, and BTW only a lucky bastard can catch that "real" bottom, because usually it doesn't hold for long....

I think we are still far from bottom... it wouldn't matter that much for me if I am wrong anyway, because I am not going to invest more than $4200... I will invest it only when there is a real clear reversal and I dont mind missing a 10-30% just to be sure, because waiting for that real bottom and figuring out how many more Bitcoins you could buy for the same money is priceless.

Thousands standing on the side lines waiting for that reversal. And you think you can be the lucky bastard that gets in right on time?

[Richy_T]

I like that quote (in the long term we will all be dead), though some people may NOT like it b/c it is attributed to Keynes.

As he was using it in order to excuse screwing over people in the present, I'll allow it.

[empowering]

I like that quote (in the long term we will all be dead), though some people may NOT like it b/c it is attributed to Keynes.

As he was using it in order to excuse screwing over people in the present, I'll allow it.

http://www.inc.com/allison-fass/stephen-wolfram-immortality-humans-live-forever.html