Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

Then you didn't get my point, or I didn't make it clear enough:

The "old school" example of millionaire/billionaire bets (that I know of) are for sums as well that "aren't really worth it" for the people involved.

I always assumed they make those relatively modest bets because a) it doesn't look too outlandish to the general population, and b) it serves the purpose: "putting money where one's mouth is".

But, yes, if your main goal of a public bet is to make money with it, then high stakes are necessary I suppose.

[QuestionAuthority]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

Oh it does take something special.. it takes atleast 10k hours just like any other profession. Anything less and you are just that.. a gambler not a trader/investor. Most ppl give up.... and I prefer long term valuations instead of trading because I don't have the time to devote to watch swing positions and be mentally prepared for shifting sentiment.

But they assume that the people posting here have and they can lose big time. I will assume that you have all the experience and degrees in trading and you are giving sound advise. What if I acted on it and sold everything waiting for this big drop than never happened? That's bad.

[octaft]

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

You mean like the people who bought at $1000, or the dude who sold his house to buy at 650 or some shit?

No, they might believe like everyone that eventually it will be worth more and they can hold long enough but to do it for a few months, weeks or days is nuts.

They might believe that. Then again, they may have just heard like 95% of people shouting "TO DA MOON!" and decided to (panic) buy based on that.

[njcarlos]

It's all about FOMO now. People know the difference between paying $250 or $350 BTC is going to reach new ATHs is negligible. But if you keep waiting for $250 you may never even pull the trigger at $350 and just completely miss out, and be nothing more than another "I wish" story later down the line.

Keep dreaming. There will be no such rally like last time. Not in the immediate future, at least (read immediate as 2-3 years). Enough people were exposed to the last run up and slaughter that the "FOMO" will be curbed by the "oh yeah, several thousand people lost their shirts last time, let's wait and see what happens" effect.

[QuestionAuthority]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

Then you didn't get my point, or I didn't make it clear enough:

The "old school" example of millionaire/billionaire bets (that I know of) are for sums as well that "aren't really worth it" for the people involved.

I always assumed they make those relatively modest bets because a) it doesn't look too outlandish to the general population, and b) it serves the purpose: "putting money where one's mouth is".

But, yes, if your main goal of a public bet is to make money with it, then high stakes are necessary I suppose.

You're right I should have just told him to stop telling people about "the big drop". That was stupid.

[hyphymikey]

Profit taking on an up trend?

[njcarlos]

Profit taking on an up trend?

I wouldn't necessarily call a small rebound from 1year+ lows an "uptrend."

[QuestionAuthority]

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

You mean like the people who bought at $1000, or the dude who sold his house to buy at 650 or some shit?

No, they might believe like everyone that eventually it will be worth more and they can hold long enough but to do it for a few months, weeks or days is nuts.

They might believe that. Then again, they may have just heard like 95% of people shouting "TO DA MOON!" and decided to (panic) buy based on that.

Yeah, I guess so. You guys aren't responsible when people act foolish. You bastards have lost me a few coins before but I guess that's my fault for listening to you.

[njcarlos]

... but I guess that's my fault for listening to you.

Derp

[Cheeseonastick]

Upon closer examination, it appears there is some kind of internal heat source that was not evident to me when I made my last predictions. It should have cooled to ambient temperature, but it is still steaming, and in fact it actually appears to be getting hotter. At this time, the evidence suggests it may steam indefinitely, however the heat source is still a mystery to me, and there is a possibility that it could lead to overheating which, left unchecked, COULD cause critical failures, meltdowns, and possibly explosions.

I recommend to everyone to go all in. I believe circle.com accepts credit cards.

Kudos to you, and hats off.  Someone who is capable of critical thinking and changing his mind in a public forum is rare these days, especially here.

Indeed, at times there appears to be a lack of critical thinking on this forum. Fortunately there are still those of us who are interested in discussing bitcoin, not on petty bets, religion, cult personalities on this forum, and other unrelated NONsense. I am keeping a very close eye on my indicators and I will continue to share what I see with those who follow me, as my methodology is rather unique and I suspect some of the more critical minded folks out there probably appreciate my efforts, especially those who do not have the same resources at their disposal that I do.

[blade87]

It's all about FOMO now. People know the difference between paying $250 or $350 BTC is going to reach new ATHs is negligible. But if you keep waiting for $250 you may never even pull the trigger at $350 and just completely miss out, and be nothing more than another "I wish" story later down the line.

Keep dreaming. There will be no such rally like last time. Not in the immediate future, at least (read immediate as 2-3 years). Enough people were exposed to the last run up and slaughter that the "FOMO" will be curbed by the "oh yeah, several thousand people lost their shirts last time, let's wait and see what happens."

I'm not expecting a rally right now. But I'm also not going to wait until $500-$700 "to be a confirmed up trend" before I buy again. That defeats the purpose of being heavily involved in a market. If I'm looking at charts and have no idea what is going in the market, then I'll play strictly by TA. But being involved with BTC and seeing everything that has come, either I cost average down, (or up) from here out. My trading strategy seems to work in the long run. While I'm not calling peaks and minimums perfectly, I still gain with patience.

And for the record, I'm not exactly ready to pay $350+ myself yet, though $300 and less is a start buying for me. (and I can afford to lose it all)

[sidhujag]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

Oh it does take something special.. it takes atleast 10k hours just like any other profession. Anything less and you are just that.. a gambler not a trader/investor. Most ppl give up.... and I prefer long term valuations instead of trading because I don't have the time to devote to watch swing positions and be mentally prepared for shifting sentiment.

But they assume that the people posting here have and they can lose big time. I will assume that you have all the experience and degrees in trading and you are giving sound advise. What if I acted on it and sold everything waiting for this big drop than never happened? That's bad.

Its up to the reader to qualify in his mind which posts he will pay attention to and which one he won't... to my knowledge I give sound advice and it may be wrong... may be right.. but I believe even with a 1% edge over time you will be more right than wrong and that's all that matters... if someone is putting more than 1% allocation on a bet like that they will end up with 0 sum because the odds aren't in his favour. Just like people claiming to da moon or to da floor... people don't really pay attention unless they qualify it with a reason in their mind to do something about it. I could have given a more technical basis for the reason I posted what I did but I seriously would rather refrain from that unless im backed into a corner and I have to come up with the time to explain because everyone and their dog can "predict" price in the short term like you say.. some people seem to get it right more than they get it wrong.. and thats probably why there are traders who make it and aren't reliant on luck alone.

[njcarlos]

I'm not expecting a rally right now. But I'm also not going to wait until $500-$700 "to be a confirmed up trend" before I buy again. That defeats the purpose of being heavily involved in a market. If I'm looking at charts and have no idea what is going in the market, then I'll play strictly by TA. But being involved with BTC and seeing everything that has come, either I cost average down, (or up) from here out. My trading strategy seems to work in the long run. While I'm not calling peaks and minimums perfectly, I still gain with patience.

And for the record, I'm not exactly ready to pay $350+ myself yet, though $300 and less is a start buying for me.

I'm of the same belief as your last statement. My point was that the FOMO effect is far too premature. This massive correction won't just bounce off the floor and continue up perpetually. We will grind down and sideways for awhile before confidence returns to this market, and eventually FOMO might become relevant again.

[blade87]

I'm not expecting a rally right now. But I'm also not going to wait until $500-$700 "to be a confirmed up trend" before I buy again. That defeats the purpose of being heavily involved in a market. If I'm looking at charts and have no idea what is going in the market, then I'll play strictly by TA. But being involved with BTC and seeing everything that has come, either I cost average down, (or up) from here out. My trading strategy seems to work in the long run. While I'm not calling peaks and minimums perfectly, I still gain with patience.

And for the record, I'm not exactly ready to pay $350+ myself yet, though $300 and less is a start buying for me.

I'm of the same belief as your last statement. My point was that the FOMO effect is far too premature. This massive correction won't just bounce off the floor and continue up perpetually. We will grind down and sideways for awhile before confidence returns to this market, and eventually FOMO might become relevant again.

Fair enough. I can't disagree over the sideways grind that needs to come. So I'm more or less directing the original statement at the greedy bear trolls then.

[octaft]

Profit taking on an up trend?

What's wrong with that?

[QuestionAuthority]

Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was  something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.

Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.

Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.

/rant

I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not.

I'm not watching this thread like you make it out to seem.. I came on here based on my analysis to provide what I thought was going to happen based on the charts I saw... which I check maybe once or twice a day. I genuinely am not trying to scare people off to sell or whatnot so I can buy cheaper I  try to say what I think the truth is. I hold coins and never sold 1 although my average buy in price is much lower.

That's exactly what I thought you were trying to do. Scare people off.

I know you thought that based on your reply to me and that's why I'm telling you that. Anyways no point to call people out with something you can't back up either... contrary to what you may think the market is not totally random.. although mathematicians claimed to have proven it so, I've been around long enough to see that they aren't... money management is HARDER than trying to predict direction which you can train to determine with an edge... and an edge of 1% is sufficient to make any amount of money you like over time, but the balls to put money where you mouth is harder than anything else.. so essentially if I get odds based on what I believe is the direction then why wouldn't I be prepared to bet on it? We can do a smaller amount if you would like.

I don't think it takes anything special to be a gambler. But all the negative - it's gonna drop really low is keeping it down. A lot of people read this silly thread and don't post and take the advice of people that really don't know what's going to happen.

Oh it does take something special.. it takes atleast 10k hours just like any other profession. Anything less and you are just that.. a gambler not a trader/investor. Most ppl give up.... and I prefer long term valuations instead of trading because I don't have the time to devote to watch swing positions and be mentally prepared for shifting sentiment.

But they assume that the people posting here have and they can lose big time. I will assume that you have all the experience and degrees in trading and you are giving sound advise. What if I acted on it and sold everything waiting for this big drop than never happened? That's bad.

Its up to the reader to qualify in his mind which posts he will pay attention to and which one he won't... to my knowledge I give sound advice and it may be wrong... may be right.. but I believe even with a 1% edge over time you will be more right than wrong and that's all that matters... if someone is putting more than 1% allocation on a bet like that they will end up with 0 sum because the odds aren't in his favour. Just like people claiming to da moon or to da floor... people don't really pay attention unless they qualify it with a reason in their mind to do something about it. I could have given a more technical basis for the reason I posted what I did but I seriously would rather refrain from that unless im backed into a corner and I have to come up with the time to explain because everyone and their dog can "predict" price in the short term like you say.. some people seem to get it right more than they get it wrong.. and thats probably why there are traders who make it and aren't reliant on luck alone.

I understand. You I might listen to and take short term advise from. You provide rational arguments and really seem to know what your doing unlike the shit talkers here who post intelligent responses like Derp. I'm sorry I thought you were just another one being a downer. As someone suggested, I should have just asked you why you thought that.

[tarmi]

Profit taking on an up trend?

I wouldn't necessarily call a small rebound from 1year+ lows an "uptrend."

thank you.

what I find even more concerning is perm bears turning into bulls.

watch out for train pics.

[sidhujag]

I'll say this too.. watch for 2070 to fall thru like a knife if it happens.. it will act as a resistance once broken and may be a good indicator to buy once breached on the upside later on. Thus you have your support level to set as a stoploss... thats what I'd do if I was taking a trade right now.

[njcarlos]

I understand. You I might listen to and take short term advise from. You provide rational arguments and really seem to know what your doing unlike the shit talkers here who post intelligent responses like Derp. I'm sorry I thought you were just another one being a downer. As someone suggested, I should have just asked you why you thought that.

How am I a shit talker because I agreed with everyone calling you out for being pretentious with a fake bet? I said "derp" because, frankly, you were alluding to the fact that personal responsibility is somehow not an implied necessity for life in general.

I mean...

Yeah, I guess so. You guys aren't responsible when people act foolish. You bastards have lost me a few coins before but I guess that's my fault for listening to you.

No offense, but no shit.

[QuestionAuthority]

I understand. You I might listen to and take short term advise from. You provide rational arguments and really seem to know what your doing unlike the shit talkers here who post intelligent responses like Derp. I'm sorry I thought you were just another one being a downer. As someone suggested, I should have just asked you why you thought that.

How am I a shit talker because I agreed with everyone calling you out for being pretentious with a fake bet? I said "derp" because, frankly, you were alluding to the fact that personal responsibility is somehow not an implied necessity for life in general.

Ok, you're not a shit talker. You should have just called me out like you just did. People are responsible sure but they get led in the wrong direction all the time. That's not their fault. If not this forum where are you supposed to get advise on Bitcoin?