Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[brg444]

not long to wait now, then upto $490 before consolidation to about $430, and then slow growth picking up pace over the next few months towards the next megabubble.

Just how i see it at the moment. 

these types of intersections are so open to interpretation though. If you created the same model about a week ago, it would show that we fell below the cross and thus right now should be bearish.

IMO long-term we are going up, but short-term its volatility until something happens to change that - either the coins distribute from big holders to dedicated smaller HODLers, or wall street gets involved and opens up bitcoin use to investors

There will be some big movement in the next few hours.  We will see approx $490 next week.

The reason I am confident people will go long is because of the following factors:

1.  MACD shows that there is momentum for a second phase of the uptrend
2.  Every chart from 1 hour to 1 day shows quite clearly a reverse head an shoulders, indicating the downtrend since the ATH has finished.
3.  It has followed the same pattern as the April 13 266 pump.  using Fibonacci emphases this pattern repetition.
4. The April pump and consolidation took approx 3.5 months from start to finish (approx 4 x longer than Nov 13 pump and approx 4 times as large in BTC value.
5. The volume has been steadily increasing.

so far history has repeated, so why should this be different?   Im not saying it's mega pump time just yet, but I am saying the the slide has halted.

The reason I say 490 is because the Trend line from the last 12 months is currently at that price, that's why i think we will bounce off it, consolidate at $430 and then go sideways and break that upper trend-line in Jan when it sits at about $430.   From there steady growth gathering pace, before panic buying sets in again...  and noobs start talking about the "S" curve again, and the cycle repeats.  

See you at $5750 in June 2015...

 

all of this sounds good to me but I expect the Winks ETF to be approved before the end of the year which would certainly precipitate the run up

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[jonoiv]

...
There will be some big movement in the next few hours.  We will see approx $490 next week.
...

Quoted for future lel...  Or tasty humble pie 4 me.

Don't worry I don't delete my predictions, if I'm wrong it's bear whale manipulation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[colour]

Am I the only one here who considers the recent bullish sentiment to be irrational?

The bulls' main argument for a trend reversal seems to be the fact that, after falling ~$400 from this summer's highs, we have seen the first really significant bounce upwards. Honestly, I think that crashing really hard after a months long downtrend isn't exactly the best advertisement for potential new buyers, despite the bounce. And we urgently need those newcomers in order to absorb the constant downward pressure applied by newly mined coins.

The irrational bullishness expressed both here and on reddit indicates to me that the bulls have mostly already gone "all in", hoping to catch the start of a new bubble. And now the price is mainly pushed further up by traders on margin riding the momentum (dollar-swaps on finex touched $24M just today!) and shorts getting stopped out. I don't think this is sustainable without a significant influx of new buyers (and holders) who help to carry the price further upwards.

Meanwhile, the chart on google trends for "bitcoin" is going back down after that last disappointingly small spike which was probably caused by both the recent crash and the release of the "rise and rise" documentary.

The chart for number of transactions may be increasing, but the ones for transaction fees and dollar-value of the transactions are going sideways. I consider especially the transaction fee chart as noteworthy, because it actually costs money to manipulate the chart and because it is not influenced by old coins moving around. My logic is that more transaction fees being paid could indicate more newcomers coming in, who only have non-fee-free coins to move around (besides indicating an increase in "real, non-manipulative" movement of coins, of course).

Volume seems to be decreasing for now, too.

Media hype is also not there, and I don't perceive the interest regarding bitcoin outside of the bitcoin related message boards as especially encouraging.

My personal guess is that bulls aren't going to give up yet and will try to give it another push to higher price levels. But I would be surprised if we actually made it to $450. From there on I expect the rally to fizzle away like the one in summer. We couldn't sustain a bull rally back then, even though there were significantly fewer coins in circulation at that time. We couldn't even sustain prices above $400 after that,. And I don't see how suddenly we could sustain such prices now. Nothing really has fundamentally changed after that crash below $300. So I predict the continuation of the downtrend after the next push upwards.

All IMHO, of course.

[inca]

Am I the only one here who considers the recent bullish sentiment to be irrational?

The bulls' main argument for a trend reversal seems to be the fact that, after falling ~$400 from this summer's highs, we have seen the first really significant bounce upwards. Honestly, I think that crashing really hard after a months long downtrend isn't exactly the best advertisement for potential new buyers, despite the bounce. And we urgently need those newcomers in order to absorb the constant downward pressure applied by newly mined coins.

The irrational bullishness expressed both here and on reddit indicates to me that the bulls have mostly already gone "all in", hoping to catch the start of a new bubble. And now the price is mainly pushed further up by traders on margin riding the momentum (dollar-swaps on finex touched $24M just today!) and shorts getting stopped out. I don't think this is sustainable without a significant influx of new buyers (and holders) who help to carry the price further upwards.

Meanwhile, the chart on google trends for "bitcoin" is going back down after that last disappointingly small spike which was probably caused by both the recent crash and the release of the "rise and rise" documentary.

The chart for number of transactions may be increasing, but the ones for transaction fees and dollar-value of the transactions are going sideways. I consider especially the transaction fee chart as noteworthy, because it actually costs money to manipulate the chart and because it is not influenced by old coins moving around. My logic is that more transaction fees being paid could indicate more newcomers coming in, who only have non-fee-free coins to move around (besides indicating an increase in "real, non-manipulative" movement of coins, of course).

Volume seems to be decreasing for now, too.

Media hype is also not there, and I don't perceive the interest regarding bitcoin outside of the bitcoin related message boards as especially encouraging.

My personal guess is that bulls aren't going to give up yet and will try to give it another push to higher price levels. But I would be surprised if we actually made it to $450. From there on I expect the rally to fizzle away like the one in summer. We couldn't sustain a bull rally back then, even though there were significantly fewer coins in circulation at that time. We couldn't even sustain prices above $400 after that,. And I don't see how suddenly we could sustain such prices now. Nothing really has fundamentally changed after that crash below $300. So I predict the continuation of the downtrend after the next push upwards.

All IMHO, of course.

Not sure why you think a high volume reversal after a long drawn out bear market and subsequent price rises indicate irrational bullishness. Most technical indicators are now turning bullish. We are still 70% below last ATH.

New users won't be buying us up from here IMO. They won't buy in until the next media circus.

How else are you expecting the bear market to end? Are you short?

[brg444]

Am I the only one here who considers the recent bullish sentiment to be irrational?

The bulls' main argument for a trend reversal seems to be the fact that, after falling ~$400 from this summer's highs, we have seen the first really significant bounce upwards. Honestly, I think that crashing really hard after a months long downtrend isn't exactly the best advertisement for potential new buyers, despite the bounce. And we urgently need those newcomers in order to absorb the constant downward pressure applied by newly mined coins.

Except newly minted coins are not sold on exchanges.

[marcelus]

not long to wait now, then upto $490 before consolidation to about $430, and then slow growth picking up pace over the next few months towards the next megabubble.

Just how i see it at the moment. 

these types of intersections are so open to interpretation though. If you created the same model about a week ago, it would show that we fell below the cross and thus right now should be bearish.

IMO long-term we are going up, but short-term its volatility until something happens to change that - either the coins distribute from big holders to dedicated smaller HODLers, or wall street gets involved and opens up bitcoin use to investors

There will be some big movement in the next few hours.  We will see approx $490 next week.

The reason I am confident people will go long is because of the following factors:

1.  MACD shows that there is momentum for a second phase of the uptrend
2.  Every chart from 1 hour to 1 day shows quite clearly a reverse head an shoulders, indicating the downtrend since the ATH has finished.
3.  It has followed the same pattern as the April 13 266 pump.  using Fibonacci emphases this pattern repetition.
4. The April pump and consolidation took approx 3.5 months from start to finish (approx 4 x longer than Nov 13 pump and approx 4 times as large in BTC value.
5. The volume has been steadily increasing.

so far history has repeated, so why should this be different?   Im not saying it's mega pump time just yet, but I am saying the the slide has halted.

The reason I say 490 is because the Trend line from the last 12 months is currently at that price, that's why i think we will bounce off it, consolidate at $430 and then go sideways and break that upper trend-line in Jan when it sits at about $430.   From there steady growth gathering pace, before panic buying sets in again...  and noobs start talking about the "S" curve again, and the cycle repeats.  

See you at $5750 in June 2015...

 

all of this sounds good to me but I expect the Winks ETF to be approved before the end of the year which would certainly precipitate the run up

The BitLicense is by far the biggest thing on the horizon. As soon as that's in place - even if it's in a form we don't like - institutional players will finally have a sure footing with which to get involved.

[bitebits]

Patrick Byrne is going to spearhead the nu bitcoin movement!!!

====> OCCUPY WALL STREET ON THE BLOCKCHAIN!!!!!!!!     *must see*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbCeo-BvrIM&list=UUmZ94fbKKGoBDY_g4hzR-MA

Somehow I am getting distracted while watching this, must be Patrick's necklace.

[colour]

Hi inca,

Not sure why you think a high volume reversal after a long drawn out bear market and subsequent price rises indicate irrational bullishness.

It just sounds to me as if the main argument for the bullish case boils down to: "We crashed really hard after going down for months. But we didn't crash even harder. Therefore up it goes". It's just not very convincing for me.

Most technical indicators are now turning bullish. We are still 70% below last ATH.

I'll probably step on a lot of toes now, but I consider (most) TA as hokus-pokus. I follow r/bitcoinmarkets closely, and it seems to me that trading contrary to what their indicators and squiggly lines say would have made for much more successfull trading than actually following their predictions.

New users won't be buying us up from here IMO. They won't buy in until the next media circus.

A chicken and egg problem then? I think without new buyers we are doomed to go lower. Old-timer bitcoiners trading back and forth among themselves does not create a sustainable rally.

How else are you expecting the bear market to end? Are you short?

I expect the bear market to end with a panic that gets incited when market participants realize we are going down into the 200s, and that we will stay there for a while. I assume we will see real panic selling then, with people jumping over each other to reach the exit before it is (seemingly) too late. Where every move upwards will be seen as a good opportunity to get out, and not as the beginning of a new bubble (the way it is happening right now). It will surely seem naive to most here, but I am actually convinced I will be able to buy back in much cheaper then. It's far from guaranteed, of course.

I am not short, but seriously considering doing so once we go back into the 400s.

Again, all IMHO.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Edit:

Except newly minted coins are not sold on exchanges.

Newly mined coins water down the supply side and therefore apply downward pressure onto the price. I find it hard to argue against that? Maybe you are assuming that all newly mined coins go straight to cold storage and stay there? I see no indications for that being the case, though.

[BBmmBB]

Patrick Byrne is going to spearhead the nu bitcoin movement!!!

====> OCCUPY WALL STREET ON THE BLOCKCHAIN!!!!!!!!     *must see*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbCeo-BvrIM&list=UUmZ94fbKKGoBDY_g4hzR-MA

Somehow I am getting distracted while watching this, must be Patrick's necklace.

inorite    i'm moving to Toronto!

[BBmmBB]

Am I the only one here who considers the recent bullish sentiment to be irrational?

The bulls' main argument for a trend reversal seems to be the fact that, after falling ~$400 from this summer's highs, we have seen the first really significant bounce upwards. Honestly, I think that crashing really hard after a months long downtrend isn't exactly the best advertisement for potential new buyers, despite the bounce. And we urgently need those newcomers in order to absorb the constant downward pressure applied by newly mined coins.

Except newly minted coins are not sold on exchanges.

they can be !  some are .. :\

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

If nothing else... 3 day MACD is green! No need to say how bullish usualy this is 

Let's just hope it holds up

We'll see in 2-3 days

[adaseb]

I covered my short at a loss that I took a few days ago.

I was expecting it to go lower but it looks like support held and might advance higher.

[heri]

https://i.imgur.com/7hWrx7H.jpg

[ShroomsKit]

I covered my short at a loss that I took a few days ago.

I was expecting it to go lower but it looks like support held and might advance higher.

Please tell me me you lost a lot?

[sajisama]

http://s28.postimg.org/94kcjp5al/save_the_cheerleader.png http://pasteboard.co/1424vwkk.png
save the cheerleader, save the world, #bitcoin upcoming insane rally on 3day 8/41 cross and 3day MACD crossing green  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hmmmstrange]

Edit:

Except newly minted coins are not sold on exchanges.

Newly mined coins water down the supply side and therefore apply downward pressure onto the price. I find it hard to argue against that? Maybe you are assuming that all newly mined coins go straight to cold storage and stay there? I see no indications for that being the case, though.

With the leveling of the mining difficulty, inflation of the bitcoin money supply has fallen from 12% to 10% per annum. An instant 20% reduction in the new money supply has huge influence on tipping the equilibrium of the price.

[ShroomsKit]

http://pasteboard.co/1424vwkk.png
save the cheerleader, save the world, #bitcoin upcoming insane rally on 3day 8/41 cross and 3day MACD crossing green  

Sorry to tell you this but drawning lines on a chart doesn't work. It predicts absolutely nothing. It's as acurate as throwing dice. Why people still dont't get that after 1000's of examples that failed is beyond me.