Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

Looking at the numbers, I think this s--- is going to drop like a brick any minute. Don't get me wrong, we might even eclipse $400... but this is probably a profit taking opportunity.

Why?

(1) Look at Darkcoin -- it went up at an incredible pace on the dark markets being seized, but now it is down 10% -- perhaps the dark market issue response is over or overblown at this point;

(2) Dollar swaps are actually starting to fall (very slightly);

(3) Shorts are through the roof (but are not yet reflected in the market depth because you can reserve BTCs for a short without putting them into direct action).

In a nutshell, good on you if you called this jump and made some money, but I'd suggest taking profits now and looking for the next pivot point.

NOTE: This review does not account for mythical creatures like unicorns nor does it account for news on the ETF front.

NOTE #2: I also wouldn't suggest opening a short at this point, either. There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.

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[Walsoraj]

New FinCEN statement today that actually looks bullish: http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/html/20141110.html

Since it seems that the official bears are taking a nap:

That lengthy document basically says "Hey banks, please do NOT close the accounts of EVERY money service business; evaluate case-by-case, and close only the accounts of the fishy ones."

E.g., those that deal with cryptocoins.  

Yes, that is how a bear or rational person would interpret the statement. Another interpretation: we approve of companies that are proactively working with the banking industry, like Ripple Labs.  

[dreamspark]

Looking at the numbers, I think this s--- is going to drop like a brick any minute. Don't get me wrong, we might even eclipse $400... but this is probably a profit taking opportunity.

Why?

(1) Look at Darkcoin -- it went up at an incredible pace on the dark markets being seized, but now it is down 10% -- perhaps the dark market issue response is over or overblown at this point;

(2) Dollar swaps are actually starting to fall (very slightly);

(3) Shorts are through the roof (but are not yet reflected in the market depth because you can reserve BTCs for a short without putting them into direct action).

In a nutshell, good on you if you called this jump and made some money, but I'd suggest taking profits now and looking for the next pivot point.

NOTE: This review does not account for mythical creatures like unicorns nor does it account for news on the ETF front.

NOTE #2: I also wouldn't suggest opening a short at this point, either. There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.

Dark got pumped due to the darknet market news, now it will go back down because it was a pump.

Shorts through the roof != a reason to go down, if anything its a reason to go up as they get squeezed. (I dont buy the not reflected in the price statement as most people dont reserve BTC before selling them they just carry out the trade and autolend, the interest rates dont change that much so whats the point of reserving)

[noobtrader]

Looking at the numbers, I think this s--- is going to drop like a brick any minute. Don't get me wrong, we might even eclipse $400... but this is probably a profit taking opportunity.

Why?

(1) Look at Darkcoin -- it went up at an incredible pace on the dark markets being seized, but now it is down 10% -- perhaps the dark market issue response is over or overblown at this point;

(2) Dollar swaps are actually starting to fall (very slightly);

(3) Shorts are through the roof (but are not yet reflected in the market depth because you can reserve BTCs for a short without putting them into direct action).

In a nutshell, good on you if you called this jump and made some money, but I'd suggest taking profits now and looking for the next pivot point.

NOTE: This review does not account for mythical creatures like unicorns nor does it account for news on the ETF front.

NOTE #2: I also wouldn't suggest opening a short at this point, either. There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.

in a nutshell :
1. do not take long position because its going to drop like a brick any minute.
2. do not take short position as There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.


r us serious 

[noobtrader]

New FinCEN statement today that actually looks bullish: http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/html/20141110.html

Since it seems that the official bears are taking a nap:

That lengthy document basically says "Hey banks, please do NOT close the accounts of EVERY money service business; evaluate case-by-case, and close only the accounts of the fishy ones."

E.g., those that deal with cryptocoins.  

Yes, that is how a bear or rational person would interpret the statement. Another interpretation: we approve of companies that are proactively working with the banking industry, like Ripple Labs.  

next in the news, individual holding ripple  or act as node need to obtain special permit.

[superresistant]

 
Cumulatively, the ruble has shed 25% of its value in 2014 alone, making it one of the worst performers in the money markets.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/russian-rubles-depreciation-trigger-bitcoin-run/

now we can add Russia to the list of countries who are flirting with complete economic turmoil.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/another-fiat-currency-crisis-pops-russia-ruble-falls/

[N12]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

[noobtrader]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/toward-safe-decentralized-markets-openbazaar-beta-3-released/


maybe will fuel more into btc prices

[Walsoraj]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Or convert to fiat. They cannot withdraw anything without verification.

[janos666]

Looking at the numbers, I think this s--- is going to drop like a brick any minute. Don't get me wrong, we might even eclipse $400... but this is probably a profit taking opportunity.

Why?

(1) Look at Darkcoin -- it went up at an incredible pace on the dark markets being seized, but now it is down 10% -- perhaps the dark market issue response is over or overblown at this point;

(2) Dollar swaps are actually starting to fall (very slightly);

(3) Shorts are through the roof (but are not yet reflected in the market depth because you can reserve BTCs for a short without putting them into direct action).

In a nutshell, good on you if you called this jump and made some money, but I'd suggest taking profits now and looking for the next pivot point.

NOTE: This review does not account for mythical creatures like unicorns nor does it account for news on the ETF front.

NOTE #2: I also wouldn't suggest opening a short at this point, either. There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.

Dark got pumped due to the darknet market news, now it will go back down because it was a pump.

Shorts through the roof != a reason to go down, if anything its a reason to go up as they get squeezed. (I dont buy the not reflected in the price statement as most people dont reserve BTC before selling them they just carry out the trade and autolend, the interest rates dont change that much so whats the point of reserving)

I am not sure but I think you can reserve the amount (so the pool won't run out before you finish spending as much as you planned to) but not the interest rate. The interest will dynamically change along the road depending on the swap "market" (who lends how much for what cost at any given point in time).

I experienced a dynamic interest rate increase when Bitfinex swaps went above 20k BTC, however that was "auto borrow" not a manually reserved swap (I have never tried to use that function but I think those swaps come from the exact same p2p pool, so should behave exactly the same).

[noobtrader]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

so... how much total btc are they talking about

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Wha are the possible outcomes here & what effect will they have on the price?

[Thomas-s]

You would be crazy to short right now.

[Walsoraj]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Wha are the possible outcomes here & what effect will they have on the price?

It's not that complicated. Criminals who don't verify will lose their funds. Or they do verify, and can then withdraw either fiat or bitcoin.

[N12]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Or convert to fiat. They cannot withdraw anything without verification.

They can't withdraw fiat without supplying a bank account. It's less risky to fake ID and then simply withdraw BTC.

[billyjoeallen]

train kep--rollin' all night long!

[colour]

I am not sure but I think you can reserve the amount (so the pool won't run out before you finish spending as much as you planned to) but not the interest rate. The interest will dynamically change along the road depending on the swap "market" (who lends how much for what cost at any given point in time).

I experienced a dynamic interest rate increase when Bitfinex swaps went above 20k BTC, however that was "auto borrow" not a manually reserved swap (I have never tried to use that function but I think those swaps come from the exact same p2p pool, so should behave exactly the same).

No, some swap offers on Finex have fixed rates. It can be beneficial to reserve those if you intend to hold your position for a long time and/or if you expect a sudden increase in the demand for swaps.

[paul2000]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Is it even possible to withdraw btc from unverified accounts?

[colour]

Bitstamp criminals have only 3 days left to buy BTC and GTFO before money is seized.

https://www.facebook.com/Bitstamp/posts/670469009737035

Is it even possible to withdraw btc from unverified accounts?

It's not possible, therefore:

They can't withdraw fiat without supplying a bank account. It's less risky to fake ID and then simply withdraw BTC.

[janos666]

I am not sure but I think you can reserve the amount (so the pool won't run out before you finish spending as much as you planned to) but not the interest rate. The interest will dynamically change along the road depending on the swap "market" (who lends how much for what cost at any given point in time).

I experienced a dynamic interest rate increase when Bitfinex swaps went above 20k BTC, however that was "auto borrow" not a manually reserved swap (I have never tried to use that function but I think those swaps come from the exact same p2p pool, so should behave exactly the same).

No, some swap offers on Finex have fixed rates. It can be beneficial to reserve those if you intend to hold your position for a long time and/or if you expect a sudden increase in the demand for swaps.

Good to know, thanks.