Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[grappa_barricata]

If everybody is losing, who's winning?

The people who earn a cut on every trade, and the people who get out of the ponzi scheme first.

I mean, in a zero-sum game where the majority is losing, somebody has to win.

[1715188260]

1715188260

[justusranvier]

I mean, in a zero-sum game where the majority is losing, somebody has to win. Every day.

Obviously if you only look at a single round of a zero sum game you'll find winners and losers.

The point is that nobody can remain a winner in the long term.

Play enough rounds and eventually your track record will converge to the same as everybody else's.

Mathematically, this must be the case.

[conspirosphere.tk]

I mean, in a zero-sum game where the majority is losing, somebody has to win.

[grappa_barricata]

I mean, in a zero-sum game where the majority is losing, somebody has to win. Every day.

Obviously if you only look at a single round of a zero sum game you'll find winners and losers.

The point is that nobody can remain a winner in the long term.

Play enough rounds and eventually your track record will converge to the same as everybody else's.

Mathematically, this must be the case.

No no, i agree and know about statistics. But the possibility of a trade being successful is not a random variable, it is not like throwing a dice. There is asymmetric access to information, and for information i mean both market data and its interpretations. How many market participants know the dynamics of stop hunting? How many are able to spot accumulation by big players, and what are accumulating? How many can take a loss soon, with no emotions, and let a win ride while being as cold as iron? How many dare to throw bids during the worse moments of a panic? How many are willing to go against the masses when they are more irrational than usual? Not many. If you can do any of these things you already have an edge in the game. Those that have an edge win.

[NotLambchop]

I mean, in a zero-sum game where the majority is losing, somebody has to win. Every day.

Obviously if you only look at a single round of a zero sum game you'll find winners and losers.

The point is that nobody can remain a winner in the long term.

Play enough rounds and eventually your track record will converge to the same as everybody else's.

Mathematically, this must be the case.

Player A is good at zero-sum game.
Player B, a typical investment aficionado, sucks at it.
Player A loses as much as player B because Bitcoin math.

[justusranvier]

If you can do any of these things you already have an edge in the game. Those that have an edge win.

That theory is not supported by the evidence.

Study after study shows that everybody who thinks they have an edge eventually, inexorably, loses it.

The edge is an illusion.

[grappa_barricata]

If you can do any of these things you already have an edge in the game. Those that have an edge win.

That theory is not supported by the evidence.

Study after study shows that everybody who thinks they have an edge eventually, inexorably, loses it.

The edge is an illusion.

Man, don't get lost in semantics. We are not all equals. Many are clueless and useless bags of future composts. Study after study show this.

EDIT:
i didn't mean that you in particular are useless, sorry if it sounded that way - in fact i remember enjoying reading your article

[NotLambchop]

...
The edge is an illusion.

Either all exchanges are 100% straight-up legit and market manipulation doesn't exist, or you're wrong

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[janos666]

If you can do any of these things you already have an edge in the game. Those that have an edge win.

That theory is not supported by the evidence.

Study after study shows that everybody who thinks they have an edge eventually, inexorably, loses it.

The edge is an illusion.

I know several people who have been "professional online poker players" for years. They sit at home all day, playing online poker at multiple virtual tables simultaneously (most commonly 3 wide screen displays with 6 tables each, only a few being inactive at a time) and they produce a nice monthly average return (comparable to a nice "middle class" job).

I was always horrible in poker (nobody understood why, since I am sort of "smart" and almost a "sociopath") but I am ~1000% up in crypto trading (ah well, at least up to this point, since I joined in last December, and only in BTC, not in fiat terms, so it's more like ~300% ).

This reminds me, I didn't try to play poker again after I learned my newbie lessons during my first weeks spent on altcoin markets.

[Tzupy]

Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.

[janos666]

Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.

I think the 4h MACD is useless now (at least in my interpretation, 0˙ tangent inflexions mean: "undecided"). But if you combine it with the 4h StochRSI indicator then you might discover the rumor of an upcoming mini rally.

[inca]

Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.

Never thought I would see a positive comment out of you 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[N12]

Surely we'll have new lows soon. Just wait.

[bitebits]

No weekend dumps? Just flat on low volume? Seems like market does not know where to head to atm.

[N12]

"Please, just once more cheap coins. Soon."

[shmadz]

Bitcoin is something new and can easily dissapear again unlike things like gold. That's why only a complete fucking idiot would compare Bitcoin to gold.

You do realize that you just compared Bitcoin to gold and then proceeded to call yourself a complete fucking idiot, right?

That was some pure, 24 karat, comedy gold

thank you for catching that.

[JimboToronto]

it's looking less bearish that I would like.

You actually want it to go down?

Thinking realistically that it might go down is one thing but wanting it to go down is another.

Obviously you're more concerned about trading than about Bitcoin itself.

Or do you have a reason to dislike or fear Bitcoin?

Tsk. Tsk.  

[mrkavasaki]

do you guys think we will go still below $300