Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[abercrombie]

Looks like a mini bubble of december 2013 imo

Yea, Nov 9th to Nov 15 looks like a Alt coin pump and dump.  

[podyx]

Looks like a mini bubble of december 2013 imo

Yea, Nov 9th to Nov 15 looks like a Alt coin pump and dump.   

So what does one make of this??

[N12]

...snip...

Blitz, you realise the Shroomskit account is used by (and this is an IIRC from a Shroomskit post months back) four different people (shared house? company) -- which explains the lack of consistency and distinct personality changes in posts every few days/hours.  And none of them give a fuck about what the others post.

So, keep posting this is a bit like posting Parashat ha-Shavua to prove the Pope is Catholic. Save your time/bandwidth.

He's lying to hide his shame. Just have a look at his writing styles/personas and you'll see they're consistent.

[podyx]

Kinda looks like we'll be going further down right?

Can you imagine $330 again? That would be sick..

[Tzupy]

Is bitcoin the mark of the beast? The permabulls make me think it's possible: anyone who does not worship the beast or its image would be killed.
Also: causes all people to receive the mark of the beast in their right hand or in their forehead.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2014/11/man-has-nfc-chips-injected-into-his-hands-to-store-cold-bitcoin-wallet/

[johnyj]

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where P is the price of the goods - so the price of the monetary asset is its inverse: B = 1 / P

B = 1/P = Q / (M x V)

Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

V is the inverse of T, the (harmonic) average holding time of a bitcoin: the number of years a bitcoin is held as store of value.

So the "end value" in steady state of a bitcoin will ultimately depend on two things:
how much stuff is bought using bitcoin, and how long one holds one's bitcoins.

This theory is too simplified, and has many flaws, thus not used by bitcoin community  

1. The formula only works when there is only one currency
If there are multiple currencies in circulation, that will become PQ=m1v1+m2v2+m3v3+... Because bitcoin is only one small currency in circulation, you can not use the formula to calculate its price since you don't know how much goods are exclusively sold for bitcoin (maybe none)

2. Not all the money has the same circulation speed
For a given amount of dollar, the V for each dollar is different, impossible to use this model to calculate anything. For example, FED has created 6x more money since 2008, but majority of those money has a velocity of 0 (hold at FED as reserve), thus removed from circulation

3. The P in the formula usually don't include capital goods (for example MBS or bitcoin), which consists of majority of today's money flow. When capital goods enter the formula, the calculation will be totally changed and the price level of daily goods will become irrelevant

For bitcoin, there is one simple method to calculate its value: The mining cost. Mining cost is the lowest possible cost to get bitcoin, it is the baseline for its valuation

[podyx]

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

[lyth0s]

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

Funny that you say that, my weekly auto-buy just occurred.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

In theory this 'should' be a bull market as the price has dropped.

'Dem cheap coinz'

Etc etc but......we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

[NotLambchop]

Is bitcoin the mark of the beast? The permabulls make me think it's possible: anyone who does not worship the beast or its image would be killed.
Also: causes all people to receive the mark of the beast in their right hand or in their forehead.
...

Confirmed a long time ago.

[Erdogan]

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where P is the price of the goods - so the price of the monetary asset is its inverse: B = 1 / P

B = 1/P = Q / (M x V)

Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

V is the inverse of T, the (harmonic) average holding time of a bitcoin: the number of years a bitcoin is held as store of value.

So the "end value" in steady state of a bitcoin will ultimately depend on two things:
how much stuff is bought using bitcoin, and how long one holds one's bitcoins.

This theory is too simplified, and has many flaws, thus not used by bitcoin community  

1. The formula only works when there is only one currency
If there are multiple currencies in circulation, that will become PQ=m1v1+m2v2+m3v3+... Because bitcoin is only one small currency in circulation, you can not use the formula to calculate its price since you don't know how much goods are exclusively sold for bitcoin (maybe none)

2. Not all the money has the same circulation speed
For a given amount of dollar, the V for each dollar is different, impossible to use this model to calculate anything. For example, FED has created 6x more money since 2008, but majority of those money has a velocity of 0 (hold at FED as reserve), thus removed from circulation

3. The P in the formula usually don't include capital goods (for example MBS or bitcoin), which consists of majority of today's money flow. When capital goods enter the formula, the calculation will be totally changed and the price level of daily goods will become irrelevant

For bitcoin, there is one simple method to calculate its value: The mining cost. Mining cost is the lowest possible cost to get bitcoin, it is the baseline for its valuation

Which is also wrong, the mining cost follows the value. Lower price, lower mining cost, on the long time scale.

[podyx]

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

In theory this 'should' be a bull market as the price has dropped.

'Dem cheap coinz'

Etc etc but......we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

Yea.. I guess the fact that we have more volume then ever on a, what looks like to be a reversal, is pretty bearish...

[NotLambchop]

...we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

So...  Dance party?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wandererfromthenorth]

...snip...

Blitz, you realise the Shroomskit account is used by (and this is an IIRC from a Shroomskit post months back) four different people (shared house? company) -- which explains the lack of consistency and distinct personality changes in posts every few days/hours.  And none of them give a fuck about what the others post.

So, keep posting this is a bit like posting Parashat ha-Shavua to prove the Pope is Catholic. Save your time/bandwidth.

He's lying to hide his shame. Just have a look at his writing styles/personas and you'll see they're consistent.

Of course it's always the same person.
He is exactly what you would call a troll, 100%.

I think I have seen like a dozen of his personalities in this thread, but it's clear is always him.

[podyx]

Yup, heading up for a while now

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Explanation

You must be on something.

Wrong price charts all day.

[Bagatell]

Explanation

You must be on something.

Wrong price charts all day.

You're talking to a bot. No wonder you missed that big green candle on Wednesday.

[empowering]

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

In theory this 'should' be a bull market as the price has dropped.

'Dem cheap coinz'

Etc etc but......we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

Yea.. I guess the fact that we have more volume then ever on a, what looks like to be a reversal, is pretty bearish...

What occurred with your margin call on Okcoin?  

Was it because your collateral was BTC?  

(just out of interest)

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Put on your seatbelts folks!

For all we know, the volume might just mostly be china fake volume.