Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Fatman3001]

get those shorts ready, down we go.

Good Luck! It will be interesting to see if you can get it much beyond $360-$370.

If that,

shorting here is suicide.

I agree, even though there has been quite a bit of manipulation the last couple of days it seems to me that XBT is heading up and a fair price right now is between $370 and $390 until the dust settles.

[indiemax]

get those shorts ready, down we go.

!?I am itching to go long?! (not 2222:1, no, just 2:1, may be )
4h MACD should reach an inflection point soon (or else...) and 4h StochRSI have been below the floor for 12 hours. So, it should bounce up in <12h (or else... "end of the world" dump, I guess, down to 320-ish in a spike -> but who would possibly want that...?).

Plenty,if all those so called funds,ETF etc are looking to get going

they are wanting as low a price to start from

manipulation is rife and I hope you can see it

[Pala_00]

get those shorts ready, down we go.

!?I am itching to go long?! (not 2222:1, no, just 2:1, may be )
4h MACD should reach an inflection point soon (or else...) and 4h StochRSI have been below the floor for 12 hours. So, it should bounce up in <12h (or else... "end of the world" dump, I guess, down to 320-ish in a spike -> but who would possibly want that...?).

Plenty,if all those so called funds,ETF etc are looking to get going

they are wanting as low a price to start from

manipulation is rife and I hope you can see it

yep. Whales are eating.

[NotLambchop]

...
shorting here is suicide.

I agree...

Never felt better

[Phillis]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

[dinofelis]

Gotcha.
I sort of went off on a tangent with the second point, "non-speculative store of value is [not] possible," but it's not hair-splitting.  I sincerely feel that precious metals, conventionally considered good stores of value, are anachronisms in contemporary economy.  The entire "store of value" concept is.  This is a bit out there, but "store of value" is not a prerequisite, or even desirable, in fiat-based economies.  Can you sorta see what I mean?

*Another aside:  If "stores of value" (like gold) did not exist, would substantial economic changes result?
edited

Store of value is essential in my opinion.   Short-term store of value is exactly what money (any money) is about: between the moment of earning and the moment of spending.  Money does two things: it allows you to split the problem of finding someone who has what you want AND wants what you have, into two simpler problems of finding someone who has what you want and someone else who wants what you have ; it also allows you to put those two things at a distance in time.

If that distance is short (days, weeks, a few months) you usually just keep the (fiat ?) money.  But it is a store of value !

If the distance in time is longer, we usually consider different stores of value, and investments.  But the main reason why we consider different stores of value and not just money comes mainly because of the inflation of fiat !  
Of course you can invest, and then you can hope to increase the buying power of your value.  You can speculate.   You can do stuff with your value.   Usually you get a trade off between risk and potential gain.
But you might just want to set it aside too.

I've recently looked at the gold price in dollar since about a century: it is a factor of something like 80.  The official dollar inflation is a factor of 23 since 1914.  
That means that gold, as a store of value, has (only) taken a factor of 3 - 4 in buying power over a century.  But fiat went down a factor of 23.

If you think of your retirement, something like gold seems not a bad idea.   A box full of dollars seems a rather bad idea !
Of course you can invest.  In Google, or in Enron :-)

But I don't see how, in one way or another, you could do without a store of value.

But this brings us back to the "fundamentals" in the bitcoin price in the future:

- is it the "value of the stuff we will buy with it" (from the quantity theory of money)

- is it the "fraction of the aggregate demand for storage of value" (competition with, say, gold)

- is it something else ?

In any case, right now it is speculation over that future value which could potentially be "to the moon" which makes us buy bitcoins now, but that is of course something that cannot last for ever (Ponzi).

[nandaltc]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

[p4n]

we're still on downtrend, but now its time to let bulls play until $400 just for a while...

[JorgeStolfi]

However, I wouldn't value a piece of paper "I owe you 10 bitcoin" as much, as 10 real bitcoins in my wallet !
It is like paper gold and physical gold, except for the problems of actual physical gold (securing it and so on).

I would rather think that bitcoin is especially suited NOT to do fractional banking with.  There's no difference between a bank account and a bitcoin address.  So nobody can mess with your coins and lend them out multiple times.

Surely there will be fractional banking with bitcoins, just as there was with dollars when these were officially backed by gold.  An account in a "bitcoin bank" is only an entry in the bank's ledger. People do not need to see "their" bitcoins in the bank's "vault", they only need to trust that the bank will hand them over if and when they decide to withdraw.  Bank clients gamble on that trust, even when they know that the sum of all bank accounts is more than what the bank actually owns.  Meanwhile they can pay with those virtual bitcoins, that exist only on the bank's ledger, just as if they were actual ones on the blockchain.

MtGOX was an example of that.  People were buying with real dollars, at or above market price, some 600 k bitcoins that existed only in MtGOX's database.  Even after people realized that MtGOX was insolvent, some managed to sell their "GOXcoins" on other markets, for way more than their actual worth in real bitcoins.

[The Linden dollar] didn't turn out to be a monetary asset, right ?  It was at most a valued collectable.  I have no knowledge of people paying their grocery shoppings with Second Life Dollars.  And as long as we can't with bitcoin, it will not be money either.  But the idea is that one day, we will.  If not, then bitcoin Q will be very low.

I don't think you need universal adoption to use that formula.  Not everyone in the world accepts euros, or Brazilian reals. As long as the currency is accepted and fungible in some market, the formula should hold.

We are those potential seigneurs.  There's nothing wrong with that, I' d think.

The seigneurs may think so, but the rest of the people will not like the idea.

That is why every minimally functioning government will stamp out private currencies: even if they succeed (or, rather, to the extent that they succeed), they are essentially scams, that take billions or trillions of wealth from the users and transfer them to the seigneurs' pockets.  It is hard to tell precisely when and how the users lose wealth, but the losses are real because they must add up to the seigneur's gains.

That, by the way, is the motivation for the existence of so many altcoins.  "Why should I use bitcoin, and let Satoshi & friends get filthy rich at my expense, when I can create an altcoin, and hopefully get filthy rich at its users' expense?"

The US government forcibly destroyed the Liberty Dollar partly for that reason, and acted to ensure that game currencies such as Linden Dollars were not widely used outside of the gaming context.  China and other countries banned bitcoin from the mainstream economy, for that same reason.

(Indeed, the thing that still puzzles me most about bitcoin is why the governments of the US and their poodles close allies are so warm about it --- even though the most enthusiastic bitcoiners openly claim that its goal is to weaken the US government's control of the economy and render the dollar worthless.)

[Newbie1022]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

I might have just lost my nerve, but I don't think we'll go much lower... possible we head back into the 330-340 range, but this seems like a steady price, actually. This is right about where the price was (a little lower) before the spike got out of control. That was a fluke, but I think this price is pretty close to real. Not touching this thing unless there's a clear direction, though. This market is a bit crazy.

[madmax6688]

Buy walls are holding out strong for the time being. Let's see if we will breach upwards of $400 again.

[Fatman3001]

get those shorts ready, down we go.

!?I am itching to go long?! (not 2222:1, no, just 2:1, may be )
4h MACD should reach an inflection point soon (or else...) and 4h StochRSI have been below the floor for 12 hours. So, it should bounce up in <12h (or else... "end of the world" dump, I guess, down to 320-ish in a spike -> but who would possibly want that...?).

Plenty,if all those so called funds,ETF etc are looking to get going

they are wanting as low a price to start from

manipulation is rife and I hope you can see it

I hope/assume most of these funds are not run by i*iots. There is no reason XBT should have any value if it has no utility. And if it carries value as poorly as it does through these dumping routines then it will struggle to make anyone any money soon. All this infrastructure that´s been sprawling up from nowhere the last couple of years will go bust, more regulated alternatives will take the lead, and Bitcoin will see a far worse fate than death. It will become..... bam, pam, paaaaaa!!.....an ALTCOIN!!!!

[Phillis]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

I might have just lost my nerve, but I don't think we'll go much lower... possible we head back into the 330-340 range, but this seems like a steady price, actually. This is right about where the price was (a little lower) before the spike got out of control. That was a fluke, but I think this price is pretty close to real. Not touching this thing unless there's a clear direction, though. This market is a bit crazy.

yup, which is why i love roof in and drop losses, either way, if you are unsure of which way, you can take a position and let it run and see what happens. If you are right, awesome, if you are wrong small losses but you can bought/sold based on what happens. Win win

[Newbie1022]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

I might have just lost my nerve, but I don't think we'll go much lower... possible we head back into the 330-340 range, but this seems like a steady price, actually. This is right about where the price was (a little lower) before the spike got out of control. That was a fluke, but I think this price is pretty close to real. Not touching this thing unless there's a clear direction, though. This market is a bit crazy.

yup, which is why i love roof in and drop losses, either way, if you are unsure of which way, you can take a position and let it run and see what happens. If you are right, awesome, if you are wrong small losses but you can bought/sold based on what happens. Win win

I like that strategy, but every time I've tried it was right after big volume and I didn't get big volume again thereafter. It's a very witty bet on big volume, though.

[Fatman3001]

...
shorting here is suicide.

I agree...

Never felt better

You are just happy because you know I read your posts.

[Phillis]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

I might have just lost my nerve, but I don't think we'll go much lower... possible we head back into the 330-340 range, but this seems like a steady price, actually. This is right about where the price was (a little lower) before the spike got out of control. That was a fluke, but I think this price is pretty close to real. Not touching this thing unless there's a clear direction, though. This market is a bit crazy.

yup, which is why i love roof in and drop losses, either way, if you are unsure of which way, you can take a position and let it run and see what happens. If you are right, awesome, if you are wrong small losses but you can bought/sold based on what happens. Win win

I like that strategy, but every time I've tried it was right after big volume and I didn't get big volume again thereafter. It's a very witty bet on big volume, though.

yeah, well i am running that strategy atm myself. I am bought (i probably shouldnt be, but i just rebought), but I have a roof in at $400 and my drop loss at $365. We will see, but its a nice risk mitigation technique.

[grappa_barricata]

this doesn't look good to me, we retraced all the way down, what a bam bam

[Newbie1022]

closed my short, made a small profit, but it wasnt as spikey as I had anticipated.

I did the opposite, have a bad feeling now

I might have just lost my nerve, but I don't think we'll go much lower... possible we head back into the 330-340 range, but this seems like a steady price, actually. This is right about where the price was (a little lower) before the spike got out of control. That was a fluke, but I think this price is pretty close to real. Not touching this thing unless there's a clear direction, though. This market is a bit crazy.

yup, which is why i love roof in and drop losses, either way, if you are unsure of which way, you can take a position and let it run and see what happens. If you are right, awesome, if you are wrong small losses but you can bought/sold based on what happens. Win win

I like that strategy, but every time I've tried it was right after big volume and I didn't get big volume again thereafter. It's a very witty bet on big volume, though.

yeah, well i am running that strategy atm myself. I am bought (i probably shouldnt be, but i just rebought), but I have a roof in at $400 and my drop loss at $365. We will see, but its a nice risk mitigation technique.

Good luck. I do dig the strategy.

[Newbie1022]

this doesn't look good to me, we retraced all the way down, what a bam bam

1d chart looks like a nightmare... BUT, the order book is stacked. I'm wondering if we'll level down repeatedly or if we just got as over exuberant about going doing as we did going up.

Any ideas. Frankly, I've got none.