Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[oda.krell]

@oda.kell: think of it in another way:

If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.

Note that I intuitively believe that adoption has grown, but also that it is not linked to price at all.

There's one simple counter to that, and I'm not the first one to make that observation:

Sometimes price runs ahead of adoption (and will eventually get back to reality). Sometimes adoption runs ahead of price (and it'll take a while before price reacts to that).

Last time that happened was late 2012/early 2013, when about 1.5 years of very impressive network growth explosively made themselves known to the market.

EDIT: But if your point is that from growing adoption we can't conclude that we're going to see rising price now-ish, then I agree of course.

[aminorex]

I insist, neither blockchain statistics nor trade volumes give us any useful insight on actual adoption as means of payment.

The gap between the concept of precise and certain knowledge, and what is properly described by "any useful insight"  is vast and deep.  You give the impression that imperfect knowledge is useless, and that perfect is possible to achieve -- if only in principle -- neither of which is a usefully true precept.

Cast for red herring in Lethe from astride your stalking horse.  I shall not assault your fortress of cognitive nihilism.  Its defending straw army is too intimidating. 

[agath]

and when you realise how absolutely corrupt and broken the fiat socialists ponzi scheme tax-prison farm really is then you go wtf and go all-in 100% adopt bitcoin.

This.

[fichtn12345]

and when you realise how absolutely corrupt and broken the fiat socialists ponzi scheme tax-prison farm really is then you go wtf and go all-in 100% adopt bitcoin.

This.

is gentleman?!

[grappa_barricata]

There's one simple counter to that, and I'm not the first one to make that observation:
Sometimes price runs ahead of adoption (and will eventually get back to reality). Sometimes adoption runs ahead of price (and it'll take a while before price reacts to that).
Last time that happened was late 2012/early 2013, when about 1.5 years of very impressive network growth explosively made themselves known to the market.
EDIT: But if your point is that from growing adoption we can't conclude that we're going to see rising price now-ish, then I agree of course.

Fair enough, it make sense. Maybe there is a adoption-price correlation that is not evident at these short timescales due to too much variance. We'll have to wait for some way to measure adoption to see this. Data mining on the blockchain can't be trusted: too easy to manipulate unique non-zero addresses, numbers of transactions (old coins can be transacted without fees, so they can be spammed), days destroyed and so on. Search trends tell us nothing useful. What else can we use? I'm out of ideas already.

[criptix]

@oda.kell: think of it in another way:

If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.

Note that I intuitively believe that adoption has grown, but also that it is not linked to price at all.

Sometimes price runs ahead of adoption (and will eventually get back to reality).

you mean speculators? 

[mymenace]

and when you realise how absolutely corrupt and broken the fiat socialists ponzi scheme tax-prison farm really is then you go wtf and go all-in 100% adopt bitcoin.

This.

THis might happen, but will probably take years. I am sure even amongst us, there would be hardly anyone who would do this at this stage.

when you realise

[oda.krell]

@oda.kell: think of it in another way:

If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.

Note that I intuitively believe that adoption has grown, but also that it is not linked to price at all.

Sometimes price runs ahead of adoption (and will eventually get back to reality).

you mean speculators? 

Yes, but there's also nothing wrong with that. I'll happily admit that at $350, there's still plenty of speculative valuation included. But how could it be any different? As long as there's a single person on an exchange having some faint hope that fundamentals will continue to grow and eventually price will reflect that, it's perfectly reasonable for him or her to buy a coin above the "pure" non-speculative value. And I'm pretty sure there's more than one person holding that belief

[lyth0s]

...
Also when I tell people that I can get up to 20% discounts on amazon (using purse.io) people are ecstatic about bitcoin. ...

Lol, "get up to 20%."  I actually checked it out, feel Rickrolled now
Technically, you can get up to 100% off.  Your discount depends on how much of a premium people are willing to pay for your BTC over market.

How it works

Firstly, when someone – Alice, say – wants to use bitcoin to purchase items for a discount from Amazon, she deposits bitcoin in her Purse.io account. Then, using a 'share' URL, she imports her Amazon 'wish list' into Purse.io and indicates what level of discount she would like for the items.

--Coindesk

Much hilarity ensues.

15-20% off happens very often, not sure what is entertaining about that though?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Go home Chart Buddy you're drunk.

[explorer]

and when you realise how absolutely corrupt and broken the fiat socialists ponzi scheme tax-prison farm really is then you go wtf and go all-in 100% adopt bitcoin.

This.

THis might happen, but will probably take years. I am sure even amongst us, there would be hardly anyone who would do this at this stage.

They are there.  Some vocal and crusading, some quiet.  But they are there, and I expect numbers are increasing rather than decreasing.  Just bear in mind that the masses are always wrong, always late. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[FatherBob]

...
Also when I tell people that I can get up to 20% discounts on amazon (using purse.io) people are ecstatic about bitcoin. ...

Lol, "get up to 20%."  I actually checked it out, feel Rickrolled now
Technically, you can get up to 100% off.  Your discount depends on how much of a premium people are willing to pay for your BTC over market.

How it works

Firstly, when someone – Alice, say – wants to use bitcoin to purchase items for a discount from Amazon, she deposits bitcoin in her Purse.io account. Then, using a 'share' URL, she imports her Amazon 'wish list' into Purse.io and indicates what level of discount she would like for the items.

--Coindesk

Much hilarity ensues.

15-20% off happens very often, not sure what is entertaining about that though?

I'm sure it does, my son, because Circle charges more than 20% when you buy BTC with credit cards there  

[Chalkbot]

...
Also when I tell people that I can get up to 20% discounts on amazon (using purse.io) people are ecstatic about bitcoin. ...

Lol, "get up to 20%."  I actually checked it out, feel Rickrolled now
Technically, you can get up to 100% off.  Your discount depends on how much of a premium people are willing to pay for your BTC over market.

How it works

Firstly, when someone – Alice, say – wants to use bitcoin to purchase items for a discount from Amazon, she deposits bitcoin in her Purse.io account. Then, using a 'share' URL, she imports her Amazon 'wish list' into Purse.io and indicates what level of discount she would like for the items.

--Coindesk

Much hilarity ensues.

15-20% off happens very often, not sure what is entertaining about that though?

I'm sure it does, my son, because Circle charges more than 20% when you buy BTC with credit cards there  

He's right. 15-20% is not hard to get at purse.io. Seriously, go try it.

[NotLambchop]

^Bitcoiner logic:

>bitch about 3% credit card fees they never actually have to pay
>pay 20% too much for Bitcoin AND buy it with credit card

[janos666]

3% credit card fees they neveractually have to pay

Who pays it then?
I know a PC shop owner who directly charges the exact VISA/Mastercard fees over the cash ticker prices if you draw out your plastic instead of your paper. (No, he doesn't accept BTC or gold/silver, it's a different story.)

--

LoL. What's this?
~1000 BTC sold on Bitstamp -> no price move anywhere (not even on stamp)
~100 BTC sold on Bitfinex -> price falls on finex and also starts dropping everywhere else on similarly low volume

[Chalkbot]

^Bitcoiner logic:

>bitch about 3% credit card fees they never actually have to pay
>pay 20% too much for Bitcoin AND buy it with credit card

That might be the case (it's really a mystery to me) although I find it more likely that it simply becomes a good buying opportunity for people with Prime accounts (no shipping costs), Amazon rewards cards, and/or affiliate discounts, or people who accumulate credit with Amazon Mechanical Turk or gift cards which are hard to liquidate otherwise. Essentially people are exchanging their discounts/credits for bitcoin.

There's probably some level of credit card fraud, or people who don't WANT to sign up at circle or the like for a plethora of reasons, or simply not intending to pay the credit debt, and maybe even some charity going on here, but I find all of these scenarios more likely than they are simply eating the 20% markup on coins because they can't find a better place to buy them.

[NotLambchop]

^Bitcoiner logic:

>bitch about 3% credit card fees they neveractually have to pay
>pay 20% too much for Bitcoin AND buy it with credit card

Who pays it then?
I know a PC shop owner who directly charges the exact VISA/Mastercard fees over the cash ticker prices if you draw out your plastic instead of your paper. (No, he doesn't accept BTC or gold/silver, it's a different story.)

The merchant pays it (passing it on to the consumer by inflating the price).  This means that if you shop with cash or BTC without getting a discount, you're subsidizing my CC use.  
It also means that Bitcoiners buying coin through purse.io are paying 20% more because they hate paying 3%.

Of course, the alleged 20% savings is actually a loss if you buy your coin through purse.io, amiright?