inca
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December 13, 2014, 09:55:52 AM |
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If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.
I believe that demand for use in payments, by itself, would not support 100 $/BTC, maybe not even 10 $/BTC. What keeps the price up is speculation: people buying BTC to hold for weeks or years, waiting for better prices. That locks up most of the existing 13 million BTC, and makes them scarce on the exchanges. Assuming that BitPay processes 1 million $/day, I would guess that the total traffic for e-payments now may be perhaps 5 million $/day. Let's say that bitcoins bought for that purpose stay out of the market for 5 days on the average, before being sold by the payment processors. Then, at any time, that use would lock up 25 million $ worth of bitcoins. If there was no speculation, and all 13 million BTC were on the exchanges, that demand would perhaps support a price of 2 $/BTC. Why do you keep droning on about pricing bitcoin based upon 'demand for use in payments'? Clearly this has never, nor will be for a long time, a decent measure of how to price btc. Bitcoin is held as a speculative store of value. That is why there are only a tiny float of coins being traded back and forth on the exchanges. Other than constantly insinuating that the price of bitcoin is too high, why do you insist on this line of pointless thinking? Do you question why amazon has a massively high price earnings multiple and go screaming from the hills that it is overpriced as a stock? The single interesting metric you have posted is the number of addresses containing > 0.1 btc. You can cite a reference before we take that one seriously, too. |
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NUFCrichard
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December 13, 2014, 09:58:38 AM |
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This is just ridiculous. Fucking Microsoft adopts Bitcoin and people just keep on dumping. Half 2015 Bitcoin will might be 10x as big and the price 10x times as low because of these retarded dumpers and traders.
Its trading in a range now, it's might be a sucky range, but 340-370 seems to be the range. The way the economy is starting to shake, I think a country might make make a bank raid again soon, mich as Cyprus did, that is the sort of move that can really help bitcoin. Venezuela also looks like it is teetering and could go bankrupt. I think it is a shame that Putin is so anti bitcoin when he is pushing for moving away from the USD, and RT seems to love bitcoin too! |
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ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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December 13, 2014, 10:00:42 AM |
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macsga
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Strange, yet attractive.
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December 13, 2014, 10:05:04 AM |
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Launch date set for December 19.  CCMF!!!!1  |
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JorgeStolfi
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December 13, 2014, 10:17:02 AM |
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Why do you keep droning on about pricing bitcoin based upon 'demand for use in payments'? Clearly this has never, nor will be for a long time, a decent measure of how to price btc.
Sigh. Do I need to count the posts in this thread that claim that the price must go up "soon" because "adoption is booming"? Please take issue with those who say so... |
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inca
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December 13, 2014, 10:24:56 AM |
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Why do you keep droning on about pricing bitcoin based upon 'demand for use in payments'? Clearly this has never, nor will be for a long time, a decent measure of how to price btc.
Sigh. Do I need to count the posts in this thread that claim that the price must go up "soon" because "adoption is booming"? Please take issue with those who say so... Adoption != using bitcoin for payments. You are trying to price bitcoin in this manner even though the price is supported by speculative investment. Last week 50,000 coins were snapped up private investors. Despite 3,600 coins being created daily and a horrific bear market the price is still ~$350 dollars. Your continued puzzlement over why bitcoin has value will not stop the next price surge either. |
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fonsie
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December 13, 2014, 10:30:38 AM |
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Why do you keep droning on about pricing bitcoin based upon 'demand for use in payments'? Clearly this has never, nor will be for a long time, a decent measure of how to price btc.
Sigh. Do I need to count the posts in this thread that claim that the price must go up "soon" because "adoption is booming"? Please take issue with those who say so... Sigh. Do I need to count the posts in this thread that claim you are a troll spamming this thread with "NO SPECULATION" yapping, which they rather see going? Please take this good advice and let Bitcoin do it's business, while you can go do some "Academic" stuff. |
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gkv9
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!!! RiSe aBovE ThE StoRm !!!
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December 13, 2014, 10:30:58 AM |
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...3,600 coins being created daily and a horrific bear market the price is still ~$350 dollars.
True, that's what we call "STABLE"...  |
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Newbie1022
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December 13, 2014, 10:57:36 AM |
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This is just ridiculous. Fucking Microsoft adopts Bitcoin and people just keep on dumping. Half 2015 Bitcoin will might be 10x as big and the price 10x times as low because of these retarded dumpers and traders.
Its trading in a range now, it's might be a sucky range, but 340-370 seems to be the range. The way the economy is starting to shake, I think a country might make make a bank raid again soon, mich as Cyprus did, that is the sort of move that can really help bitcoin. Venezuela also looks like it is teetering and could go bankrupt. I think it is a shame that Putin is so anti bitcoin when he is pushing for moving away from the USD, and RT seems to love bitcoin too! Because every country wants the stability of a currency that nobody uses, traded on bucket shop exchanges, that is constantly the victim of outside manipulation... you know the same currency that is now worth 1/4 of what it was worth a year ago. Brilliant idea buddy. That said, a digital currency, be it Bitcoin or some other, could become a global currency standard and, I imagine our corporate overlords would welcome this because multinational corps constantly have to switch between currencies causing not only confusion but risk. That said, such an event is not a near term event. Brazil could be overtaken by aliens and they would still not switch to BTC. The infrastructure isn't there, the stability isn't there, the will isn't there, and they would be completely screwed. Stop smoking crack. |
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Tzupy
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December 13, 2014, 11:00:06 AM |
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ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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December 13, 2014, 11:00:41 AM |
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Bagatell
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December 13, 2014, 11:03:02 AM |
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NO IT WONT!  |
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Newbie1022
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December 13, 2014, 11:05:48 AM |
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NO IT WONT! Almost certainly will broseph. Crypto is the future, you are the sacrificial lamb. It will be replaced by monorail coin! |
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inca
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December 13, 2014, 11:20:34 AM |
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Direct quote from the book: "Returning to the issue of the future of Bitcoin, in the short to medium term – barring a major upset – the most likely scenario for the Bitcoin market is more of the same but with the market lurching towards maturity. The Bitcoin market will continue to grow, but in a fitful manner with one boom–bust cycle after another before settling down as the growing size of the market makes manipulative attacks more difficult and the exchanges’ risk management continues to improve." |
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Wandererfromthenorth
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December 13, 2014, 11:38:14 AM |
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The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times, etc), shares the same fundamental issues.
It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.
Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.
And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.
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Wary
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December 13, 2014, 11:43:14 AM |
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As said in the review to the book, we are both [author of the book and the reviewer] well aware that volatility is Bitcoin’s great weakness. IMO volatility is not a bug weakness, but a feature. And it's not a feature of bitcoin, but a feature of growth. Bitcoin is volatile because it grows. When it'll replace dollar fill the market it's volatility will drop to the level of "normal" currencies. Or more. And there is no point of looking for a non-volatile altcoin, because any altcoin would behave exactly the same. If an economist doesn't understand it, his book may not deserve reading. OK, it may deserve reading. "If somebody says something stupid, it means you don't understand something"(c).  |
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inca
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December 13, 2014, 11:43:51 AM |
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Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.
..
And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.
Take poorly disguised ripple spam to another forum please. |
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Wandererfromthenorth
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December 13, 2014, 11:46:00 AM |
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Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.
..
And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.
Take poorly disguised ripple spam to another forum please. Sorry you interpret it that way. But it's not. I clearly said "if that won't be the future, something that works in similar ways, will". The ripple network (just an example in my post) could die tomorrow for all I know, my point would still be valid. |
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inca
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December 13, 2014, 11:52:20 AM |
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Let me guess. You own ripple and are short bitcoin. You also called bitcoin a pyramid scheme bizarrely to support your argument in some way.
GTFO.
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