Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

If... and only if... this drop was based on the fake Chinese news, then I don't see reason for further drop.

On March 21 a rumor came out that the PBoC would close the bank accounts of bitcoin exchanges.  The rumor caused a sharp price drop, especially in China.  That rumor  was denied on the same day by the PBoC, through their Weibo (Chinese Twitter) account; and the price immediately recovered.

On March 27 the rumor was renewed, this time by a reporter from a respected news agency, who claimed to have seen a draft of the circular.  Price took a new plunge.  Some people were still skeptical at first, but gradually it was confirmed: bank input channels would have to be be closed by April 15.  Price kept dropping. 

On April 15 some banks said they still had not received the circular and kept the exchanges' bank accounts open.  Optimism returned an the price jumped back. But on April 25 the ban was confirmed: new plunge.

So, perhaps the price has not recovered fully this time because the people suspect that the same thing will happen with the UnionPay rumor: denial at first, but eventually confirmation.

[jonoiv]

You still going for $500 by Dec 15th ??

It looks like an absurd prediction, and we might not be there that quickly now.  I thought the drop (if it came) would come on the 7th Dec.  I said the extreme low would be 2100 and it turned out to be 2101. I think it's possible we could visit 2100 again then the up-trend will have some more life to it.

I know it looks unlikely now but look at the mood of the forum on 3rd Nov and look at where we were 10 days later.  for me $300 has less probability then $500.  

EDIT: Actually I changed my mind about 2100 again.  I think it's a slow grind gathering pace with each break out.

Hmmm, I think we are definitely on very different sides of the fence on this one  

But I respect the fact that you form your own opinions and are clearly not blindly lead by the ramblings of others  

When I trade, I trade using the Moon / Doom Wall observer post technique.   Divide the number of doom posts by the number of moon posts and if the ratio is grater than 1.6, it's going to pump.  Vise versa for the period after a nice uptrend.  

We have had about 3 doom posts to every moon posts the last 2-3 days so I make that a ratio of 3 for a while = moon soon(ish)  

[phoenix1]

I don't think this drop has anything to do with any 'Chinese news', fake or otherwise, it's just a top-heavy market rolling over, more sellers than buyers ATM

Occam's Razor ...

[Deadstock]

$34x.xx should be low enough to wake up the CHEAP COIN CREW to start preaching again on this thread, where they at tho?

[phoenix1]

When I trade, I trade using the Moon / Doom Wall observer post technique.   Divide the number of doom posts by the number of moon posts and if the ratio is grater than 1.6, it's going to pump.  Vise versa for the period after a nice uptrend.  

We have had about 3 doom posts to every moon posts the last 2-3 days so I make that a ratio of 3 for a while = moon soon(ish)  

I use that indicator too, but not in quite such a refined way - I have not defined parameters yet 

[Fatov]

damm i miss the old bitcoin days
where I could make $2k a day

I made $2K in the last 24 HRS ;-)

To be fair, that includes the recovery from my upside down short, but I think it counts.

Screenshot?
You cant win meanwhile btc is dropping :/

[phoenix1]

damm i miss the old bitcoin days
where I could make $2k a day

I made $2K in the last 24 HRS ;-)

To be fair, that includes the recovery from my upside down short, but I think it counts.

Screenshot?
You cant win meanwhile btc is dropping :/

[Specular]

Hello all,

I think that the most relevant factor to the BTC price today is the same factor that (I believe) has impacted all risk-related markets worldwide - China's decision to tighten up credit in corporate and local government debt. There are a number of major geo-political risks rattling out there (oil plunge, US dollar rise, China's debt-fueled growth and EU's debt ridden PIGS).

My guess is that BTC COULD benefit if one of these risks goes into full-on meltdown mode. On the other hands, if Central Banks can calm markets and slather on some more QE, stocks could keep rising (taking away from BTC's safe-haven appeal).

Relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/china-s-rate-swaps-surge-most-since-june-2013-as-bonds-tumble.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/china-debt-regulations-idUSL3N0TT03T20141209

[ticoti]

China is waking up,let'see where they want to go

[hmmmstrange]

Hello all,

I think that the most relevant factor to the BTC price today is the same factor that (I believe) has impacted all risk-related markets worldwide - China's decision to tighten up credit in corporate and local government debt. There are a number of major geo-political risks rattling out there (oil plunge, US dollar rise, China's debt-fueled growth and EU's debt ridden PIGS).

My guess is that BTC COULD benefit if one of these risks goes into full-on meltdown mode. On the other hands, if Central Banks can calm markets and slather on some more QE, stocks could keep rising (taking away from BTC's safe-haven appeal).

Relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/china-s-rate-swaps-surge-most-since-june-2013-as-bonds-tumble.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/china-debt-regulations-idUSL3N0TT03T20141209

"BTC's safe-haven appeal"
I love newbies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[phoenix1]

China is waking up,let'see where they want to go

Hawaii ??  

[Specular]

Hello all,

I think that the most relevant factor to the BTC price today is the same factor that (I believe) has impacted all risk-related markets worldwide - China's decision to tighten up credit in corporate and local government debt. There are a number of major geo-political risks rattling out there (oil plunge, US dollar rise, China's debt-fueled growth and EU's debt ridden PIGS).

My guess is that BTC COULD benefit if one of these risks goes into full-on meltdown mode. On the other hands, if Central Banks can calm markets and slather on some more QE, stocks could keep rising (taking away from BTC's safe-haven appeal).

Relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/china-s-rate-swaps-surge-most-since-june-2013-as-bonds-tumble.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/china-debt-regulations-idUSL3N0TT03T20141209

"BTC's safe-haven appeal"
I love newbies.

Ahh the welcoming embrace of online forums!

[Victoo]

This might go down below $300 by the end of December.

[InvestorPerson]

1w chart on stamp looks eerily similar to May 2012. If we follow a similar pattern we will be looking at a 12-24 months of big price increases well above $10k and even as high as $100k.

[adamstgBit]

everyone is overly bearish... pretty sure this means the price is wrong.

[galdur]

everyone is overly bearish... pretty sure this means the price is wrong.

Exactly

[phoenix1]

everyone is overly bearish... pretty sure this means the price is wrong.

You can't argue with the markets ...

[adamstgBit]

everyone is overly bearish... pretty sure this means the price is wrong.

You can't argue with the markets ...

oh but you can, and i am.

[phoenix1]

everyone is overly bearish... pretty sure this means the price is wrong.

You can't argue with the markets ...

oh but you can, and i am.

hehehe  

It's probably easier than arguing with a woman !!