Then I will try to figure out who will provide the necessary 335-350 billions USD for that to happen...
13,6 mil (bitcoins in circulation already) multiplied by 24650USD (25000/target price -350/actual price)
Don't forget to add 3600 fresh btc/day (from mining) multiplied by 200...350days
However, only a fraction of those 13.6 M BTC are available in the market (in the exchanges, or out in wallets of traders who would move them in if the price starts to rise). The rest is being held by long-term holders who may have rather high "sell thresholds".
I would guess that a convincing "next big bubble" could be pumped up with much less than that. Perhaps 100 M USD would be enough to buy those "loosely held" bicoins and lift the price to a point when other opportunistic speculators would rush in and bring further millions.
How much would it take to buy all the coins on the ask books of all exchanges up to (say) 1500 $/BTC?
(Of course that number would be only a very, very rough estimate, since the asks will be pulled up once the price starts to rise, and on the other hand there will be more bitcoins entering the exchanges.)
Perhaps the June/2014 mini-bubble was an attempt by some whales to do just that -- a pump that was meant to get the "next big bubble" started?
Let’s see:
On 27th May, bitstamp issued its proof of reserve at
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Bitstamp-BTC-Proof-of-Reserves-May-2014/ stating they have 183497 BTC in their cold wallet. At that time, price was around 580-590USD. There is a catch: they never disclosed their fiat proof of reserves (afaik not one exchange ever disclosed such info). I suspect fiat reserves were much lower than expected and if they did disclose it, the market would’ve crashed instantly.
Ok. 183497 BTC at 580 USD/BTC is about 106M USD. Since no other info is available, I guess an acceptable assumption one can do is that half (by value in USD equivalent) of accounts were in btc and half were in fiat, i.e. about 91.7k BTC were available for sell at any time if their holders wanted to press the “Sell bitcoins” button.
On the other hand, Bitstamp is only having around 4k BTC in asks at most times, while Huoby somewhere between 10-14k. So, for Bitstamp only 4-5% (4/91.7) BTC seems to be visible in asks while the majority (95-96%) waits on the sidelines. If same ratio applies to Huobi it means the total amount of BTC available for selling on their exchange would be around 240k-335k.
At 1500USD/BTC, to buy what is visible in asks on Bitstamp and Huobi would be like 4+14=28K = 42M USD.
However, the available BTC on the sidelines may jump in and that would require up to 91.7k+335k BTC = 640M USD.
Now, I don’t have data for finex, okcoin, btce and other exchanges but they surely would add quite something to that amount.
Also, I’m not sure if I recall correctly that someone posted the stamp wallet a couple of times since May and it was at around 260k then it grew close to 300k. That would require revising the above figures upwards.
Maybe someone will take it from here but I don’t think 100M USD will do anything visible to the price. Remember that finex has more than 22M in longs and it seems that it couldn’t even stop the downtrend let alone to increase the price even so slightly. So, to get a 4-5x increase in price I suspect we need on the order of 1B USD or more. Yes, there will be a rush in of fresh money but also a rush in of old coins too…
Good part is I think it is still doable of having 100k newcomers each bringing in a fresh 10K USD (in average).
Poll
