Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

The sun on the meadow is summery warm
The stag in the forest runs free
But gather together to greet the storm
Tomorrow belongs to me



The morning will come
When the world is mine
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs to me!

[Erdogan]

This ongoing first stage of the stock market crash of 2015 doesn´t seem to affect BTC action noticeably so far.

Which stock market crash?

You will see  

Just like i saw the crash of the dollar in 2000 ,2001 , 2002 , 2003 , 2004 , 2005 .... 2300, 2301,2302

We have seen smaller national fiats die, next is the larger fiat systems, then the dollar. Thinking of it, a good forex strategy now would be to hold dollars, then, when most other fiats have died, sell dollars.

[Erdogan]

This ongoing first stage of the stock market crash of 2015 doesn´t seem to affect BTC action noticeably so far.

Which stock market crash?

You will see  

Just like i saw the crash of the dollar in 2000 ,2001 , 2002 , 2003 , 2004 , 2005 .... 2300, 2301,2302

I was not talking about the dollar.

I would not be surprised if the dollar has probably got still a ways up to go actually... makes sense, it could run up (against other currencies with their own woes)  at least until the next round of in the US QE (4)....

US stock markets though are looking choppy and toppy... and with all that is going on, figures/fed talk global pressures I would not be surprised to see something go down this year, not in the least.

Though that being said with the current global currency wars, and the bond markets I would not be surprised to see some action in the dollar either..

I suspect though that the stock market and housing will probably take a hit first though, (followed by QE4?)

We shall see.

I know what you were talking about...
Another crash waiting at the corner ...and I gave you an example of another one people are waiting and waiting and waiting...

That is correct.... and are there any market watchers that have been around for a few decades that has a good reason to not wait for the next crash, in a cyclical stock market? Is there any reason that there should be an infinite bull run? are there any outside reasons, in this global system we have that there could be external pressures, and internal pressures that could cause the next (inevitable) financial crisis?

Guess not.

I am not arguing that it won't happen , but like the original post said ...2015?
I see no reason for this year to be the one of the crash and the ones saying preaching about  it are the same that said 2014 2013 and 2012 before with the same arguments.

A fun competition would be to predict which of the large fiats will tank first. Will it be dollar, euro, yen, yuan, sterling or swiss francs? I guess those are the largest currencies.

[S3052]

yes, these are some of the largest currencies. I'd add singapore dollar and australian dollar

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Arpeggio]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

[DanielT]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

No. (no need for a longer answer I suppose)

[NotLambchop]

More precisely:  No and no.

[oda.krell]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

I'd argue there's a number of fundamentals that are highly relevant, such as overall adoption / network size, or valuation floor through usage as medium of exchange for goods valued in USD. Problem is, those are (a) notoriously difficult to estimate precisely, and (b) even if you can estimate them more or less correctly, there never was a long term stable price that would define the "right" ratio of total valuation to adoption/network size, for example.

I personally think the "floor" defined by medium of exchange is the best you can do. By that metric alone, we're most likely still quite a bit overpriced, but that could either mean we drop further up to that floor or that floor isn't the only relevant metric. Probably the latter.

[calci]

The sun on the meadow is summery warm
The stag in the forest runs free
But gather together to greet the storm
Tomorrow belongs to me



The morning will come
When the world is mine
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs
Tomorrow belongs to me!

Do you draw all those pictures yourself ? They look really nice. Too bad people consider you a troll.

[Erdogan]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

Absolutely not. There is no intrinsic value at all, that is, no use value, or, you can not consume a bitcoin leading to its destruction, and at the same time gain something useful. *)

Said otherwise, bitcoin has only money value, and in this regard it is the same as paper money.

It is at the same time pure money, and sound money. This has never existed before in history.

The money value is by definition speculative, all actors at all times have to decide for themselves what value (real world, use value) it is possible to exchange the bitcoins for in the future, far or near.

*) I know, you can prove that you have destroyed bitcoins to prove something...

[tarmi]

it will fall like a rock.

[Dump3er]

 

[Sitarow]

it will fall like a rock.

BTC/LTC yes as people rush to dump LTC for BTC before the BTC/USD rise.

[bassclef]

it will fall like a rock.

Better wake up the sellers then.

[YourMother]

Everything is going according to plan...

[Sitarow]

Everything is going according to plan...

Although we had some minor Deviation from the core model.

Sure Shrug off and ignore reality to suit your argument. Works every time... Or does it.

That period was the adoption / adaption of new tech from GPU to FPGA and halfing of reward and then ASIC and next halfing? I wonder if pumping trash coins in hopes of exchanging them for BTC and margin trading with cooked up BTC on "questionalble" exchange practices has anything to do with this drop?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

it will fall like a rock.

Better wake up the sellers then.

smart sellers are already awake.

I feel sorry for all the bulls buying above 230.

and who cares about ltc? I sold that trash at 0.03.

[Deadstock]

What 2015 will bring us.